Stocks

[oldno7]

sold 2nd half just over +6%

Now hopefully fill the gap and buy again

[oldno7]

VSTO--that is all

[oldno7]

And MAN---Did I miss HUI

[oldno7]

The high for VSTO should be in for the day(should, it's strong right now)

I'm looking for another buy signal, if it doesn't run away from me.

[oldno7]

The high for VSTO should be in for the day(should, it's strong right now)

I'm looking for another buy signal, if it doesn't run away from me.

No chance to re buy from 20%

Now up 31%

[oldno7]

No chance to re buy from 20%

Now up 31%

Now dropping, I might just get another buy signal today.

[dougr]

Nice work. I have a different style, looking for distressed names and holding longer.

I have several bank preferred limit orders in, trying to catch some downdrafts. Also put in an $8.10 limit order on HMLP, my favorite natural gas play. Whatever I get would be a year holding or so.

[oldno7]

I only use limit orders with an occasional stop order to exit but hopefully if all goes good, a limit order there as well.

I don't know anyone else who day trades like I do either.

I've tried teaching a fellow bogleyite and I think he does ok when playing by the rules.

But it's been a year long project.

AND--it's taken that long to get him to quit reading news stories to me.

[dougr]

...

[twotimer]

VSTO--that is allNo kidding! My God...an investment just a week ago would have doubled your money. Looks like you're not the only one playing on this one, eh?

It had a happy home between 10 and 12. I'm gonna read up about this company right now.

[dougrz]

I'm getting concerned this whole event may be more prolonged than we think. Like months of shutdowns. In which case, the market suffers massive more losses from here.

Old and two and others, thoughts.

[twotimer]

I'm getting concerned this whole event may be more prolonged than we think. Like months of shutdowns. In which case, the market suffers massive more losses from here.

Old and two and others, thoughts.Well...my first thought is, do you get any sleep? Hell, I haven't the slightest idea how long this will go on. Optimistically, I'd like to think the warm weather dies the whole thing down and everything opens back up in a couple weeks, maybe less.

These people need to get back to work. "Government handouts" or not, I think the pressure to back off these closures will heat up quick. Maybe they'll issue new "guidelines".

I think the stock market WANTS to get going, but it's the day traders with the in-n-out steering it right now. But when people get back to work it'll be robust and more of the cash sitting on the sidelines will come in. I'm hopeful that before the middle of April things will be generally normal again.

I think it might take until the end of summer before the Dow gets anywhere near 25. I think the money will come back in measured and cautious, not in giant wads. Personally, I'm going to be investing considerably...and it'll likely all get dumped in at one time. While it's true that some people are really hurting, this is also an opportunity that would be foolish to ignore. Triumph and tragedy, huh?

[oldno7]

The crash of 1929 saw a 46% market drop.

The crash of 1987 saw a 34% market drop.

Our current low is -29%

I've mentioned before, the daily rate of decline is historic in the sense that the current rate exceeds both 1929 and 1987 in daily rate--thats huge.

So we are in uncharted waters.

It can realistically be argued that we have already declined more than half of the total potential move.

At the beginning of the crash, the first 16% drop, the underlying structure of the market was in tact, we were still adding jobs, unemployment at all time lows and GDP rising.

At this point--that has all changed. shuttering most business is going to have a very negative effect.

So all the words and bravado of I told ya so's concerning the markets are worthless and bullshit.

Now if one is making money using well thought out market analysis, they would be the winner.

In other words, here--money talks and bullshit walks.

My strategy(based on actual money invested, not just wet dreams and wild ass predictions) has been to buy the lows.

My trading style allows just that.

I'm currently 90% re invested and looking for 1 or 2 more new lows.

I don't want to be holding cash when the market bottoms out and begins to rally.

I may have spent my 100% of available funds prior to the low but I will be all in.

I believe it is a sound strategy and it works for me.

So the only corresponding markets we can look at for reference are 1929(46% decline) and 1987(34% decline)

I'll play the odds that we are within 10% of the low and yes, my money is where my mouth is.

[Iceaxe]

Remember what 9-11 did to the markets and economy? Well that is going to make this look like child's play.

Climb-Utah.com

[oldno7]

First circuit breaker just hit

[dougr]

Remember what 9-11 did to the markets and economy? Well that is going to make this look like child's play.

Did you mean the reverse? "This is going to make that look like child's play." I was just looking at the 9-11 selloff the other day for comparison: around 17%. Markets were closed for 6 days, then reopened to large selloffs. We're now down 30%+, and I'm thinking 15k-ish, 10k-ish if we have a slow motion spread that keeps activity down till the July/August timeline mentioned the other day at the White House briefing.

The great unknown and risk is this: it's not business and market forces here. It's govt action. Even in a worst case scenario, a few hundred thousand deaths doesn't warrant a 50% or 2/3 decline in the market. But shuttering the economy by govt edict does. And therein lies the root of the impossibility in predicting this.

[dougr]

At this point--that has all changed. shuttering most business is going to have a very negative effect.

I'm currently 90% re invested and looking for 1 or 2 more new lows.

I don't want to be holding cash when the market bottoms out and begins to rally.

I may have spent my 100% of available funds prior to the low but I will be all in.

Noted, and we may bottom any day. It's when fear is at maximum, and that happens when the unknown is maximum, that a bottom comes in. We have several unknowns floating around: 1, actual medical risk, 2 time of shutdowns, 3 oil shock and bks playing out, and 4 election risk. Hell of a confluence of events, and all are total unknowns at the moment.

[oldno7]

Noted, and we may bottom any day. It's when fear is at maximum, and that happens when the unknown is maximum, that a bottom comes in. We have several unknowns floating around: 1, actual medical risk, 2 time of shutdowns, 3 oil shock and bks playing out, and 4 election risk. Hell of a confluence of events, and all are total unknowns at the moment.

I know most here are buy and hold investors.

On a million dollar account--you're down a house.

Yes this started non nonchalant and has grown exponentially in perceived severity.

I would just encourage folks to dollar cost average in at this point because the largest % of drop should be in.

Those trying to hit the exact bottom, HOW?

Luck is the only way to achieve that.

Most traders are awaiting capitulation but if one has been paying attention, we had one on 2-28(most volume in history)

Why didn't that stop the decline:ne_nau:

So are you expecting another? Might happen/might not.

Are you willing to hold your money for an all or nothing buy in?

Your odds would be much greater in Vegas(except they're closed)

[dougr]

Are you willing to hold your money for an all or nothing buy in?

Your odds would be much greater in Vegas(except they're closed)

All good points. I'm looking for what I perceive as the max level of medical fear. And that will be potentially decoupled from the stock market, which is looking for max level of business fear. So I might miss the bottom.

Max medical fear I'd guess will come as widespread testing rolls out. Where we'll see an explosion in active case numbers. 5k cases in a country of 1/3 billion people? Silly low, and yet this national reaction so far. Imagine when that's 50k cases in 2 or 3 weeks. By then, terror awash, and the market bludgeoned lower.

Then I'll have to make a decision. It's not a decision for me yet since I'm strongly making a directional call at the moment.

[Iceaxe]

Did you mean the reverse? "This is going to make that look like child's play."

Yeah that's what I meant... look at what 9-11 did to the economy and times it by at least 10.

And I'm not just talking stocks. This is going to bankrupt numerous small businesses and families.

My dad was supposed to pick up a new Corvette this weekend and he just canceled... my daughter was looking at purchasing a new house this week and that was put on hold... trickle down in reverse... and my family members don't live paycheck to paycheck like most families. This is going to devastate the economy.

[oldno7]

All good points. I'm looking for what I perceive as the max level of medical fear. And that will be potentially decoupled from the stock market, which is looking for max level of business fear. So I might miss the bottom.

Max medical fear I'd guess will come as widespread testing rolls out. Where we'll see an explosion in active case numbers. 5k cases in a country of 1/3 billion people? Silly low, and yet this national reaction so far. Imagine when that's 50k cases in 2 or 3 weeks. By then, terror awash, and the market bludgeoned lower.

Then I'll have to make a decision. It's not a decision for me yet since I'm strongly making a directional call at the moment.

Your logic is sound--so far:mrgreen:

Several players in the vaccine world are claiming to be close.

I hope so, not likely but I hope so.

[dougr]

NBLX, if anyone is looking for greater than 100% divi yield. :haha: Energy names, not just a bloodbath, but a bloodocean.

[dougr]

We're getting into horrendous levels of fear selling. This is getting truly historic. Don't need to state the obvious, you all know. Just stream of consciousness, in awe of what we're witnessing.

[dougr]

Holy eff. BofA preferreds hit $11 and $13 and $14 across the range. Par $25. Unbelievable to see that level of fear in a too big to fail bank's preferred offerings.

This is unquestionably 2008 level fear, but compacted in time and more violent. It is scary volatility and unknowns.

[dougr]

I added to HMLP, my nat gas play. Yield around 30% at my price. Stunning, stunning selloff in so many names.

[dougr]

Bill Miller's thoughts. Old time legend investor: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/18/investor-bill-miller-one-of-the-best-buying-opportunities-of-his-life.html

-Investor Bill Miller calls this market one of the best buying opportunities of his lifetime-

“I don’t mean to put all the money in at once but I do think layering it in right now is the way to go.”

“There have been four great buying opportunities in my adult lifetime,” he said. “The first was in 1973 and ’74, the second was in 1982, the third was in 1987 and the fourth was in 2008 and 2009. And this is the fifth one.”

[dougr]

Huge late rally, 1000 points. You can't make this stuff up. Sub-19k to almost 20k. No telling what's in store.

Check TVIX, a levered VIX fund. Up 2000% on all this in the last few weeks.

[oldno7]

Huge late rally, 1000 points. You can't make this stuff up. Sub-19k to almost 20k. No telling what's in store.

Check TVIX, a levered VIX fund. Up 2000% on all this in the last few weeks.

Amazing,

I wasn't following, my system buy would have been around 76.40 and I don't have a sell yet.(interesting)

[dougr]

I'm buying more DOW and new entry in HD tomorrow.

[twotimer]

I'm buying more DOW and new entry in HD tomorrow.I'm looking to buy into the big boys, too. What's HD? Home Depot? I looked at that one but didn't include it on my list...I'm favorable to those that are trading where they were between '16-'17. I don't like the ones that are hovering too close to the run up in the last 3 years...not enough room to grow where others are.

Believe it or not...Boeing and Ford. I don't believe these companies are going "down the tubes", even thought they both have issues, Boeing is going to be backed by the Fed and Ford will get thru the Hackett era just fine, IMO. Both those stocks are long holds, of course...but they have the potential to at least double your investment within a few years, maybe sooner.

[dougr]

Futures off 4%. Sub-19k tomorrow it appears.

[oldno7]

Crazy but I bought VSTO again towards the close last night, if it dips below $6 I'll buy some more, otherwise I'll be looking for a sell signal on hopefully a decent profit.

[oldno7]

“I don’t mean to put all the money in at once but I do think layering it in right now is the way to go.”

”

This guys been reading bogley it would appear:mrgreen:

[oldno7]

I get a funny feeling that real estate is going on sale in the not to distant future.

[dougrz]

US coronavirus crisis could last 18 months or more, federal plan warns: report

https://www.foxnews.com/health/us-coronavirus-crisis-could-last-18-months-or-more-federal-plan-warns-report

Worst case scenario brainstorm report. But if it came true, the market would go single digits, 5k, Great Depression 2, etc.

But that is the kind of thinking, when it becomes talked about and considered, that pushes fear to a new level, toward some bottom.

[dougrz]

I get a funny feeling that real estate is going on sale in the not to distant future.I've been telling my realtor friends the same. People aren't going to be buying with wealth evaporating and uncertainty reigning and job security suddenly in question. Never mind the simple physical prospect of moving when lockdowns are in effect.

A particular writer on an investing site I read articles on was ringing the alarm bells back in Jan about the market collapse coming from this. So far dead on. I need to see what his latest projections are.

[dougrz]

More articles on various investing/biz sites discussing longer term shutdowns and such.

My thinking has been, when we see these articles go to, "may never return, end of life as we know it," we'd be close to a botttom. But I have to keep in mind, that's from a business cycle viewpoint. But this isn't a business cycle problem. It's an external, uncorrelated problem that doesn't respond to the business cycle.

Difficult to call.

[twotimer]

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/oil-price-could-go-negative-coronavirus-opec-war-boosts-supply-2020-3-1029009784


Here ya go...

[oldno7]

I've been telling my realtor friends the same. People aren't going to be buying with wealth evaporating and uncertainty reigning and job security suddenly in question. Never mind the simple physical prospect of moving when lockdowns are in effect.

A particular writer on an investing site I read articles on was ringing the alarm bells back in Jan about the market collapse coming from this. So far dead on. I need to see what his latest projections are.

I think this will be led by commercial business.

Banks do not want to foreclose on housing, they have a recent bad memory of that.

Debt forgiveness by banks(monthly mortgage payments) for up to a year would be a prudent banking move, here.

BUT--business' often live paycheck to paycheck as well, there will be little forgiveness on commercial loans, IMO

SBA loans are just that--loans.

I don't see going deeper in debt as relief.

[dougrz]

I think this will be led by commercial business.

Banks do not want to foreclose on housing, they have a recent bad memory of that.I decided not to buy in today. Too many negative articles read late last night and this morning. Too much uncertainty, still not close to bottom until positive test numbers hit 50k, 100k in my mind and I have to be disciplined about that.

[dougrz]

Snippet from an article. He mentions the CAPE ratio, which I had been worried about as well.

Updated Valuation
Its CAPE ratio declined from over 30, where it reached only briefly for a moment before the Great Depression, tech bubble, and Covid-19. At 23 today, it is still somewhat higher than its historical average. The market cap to GDP almost reached 150% right before the tech bubble burst and surpassed 150% right before Covid-19. Now it is back to 108%. Based on both measurements, such levels now offer a modestly positive implied future annual return. However, both are currently misleading as they have yet to reprice earnings and the GDP after the onset of the pandemic, so you still may want to protect a significant amount of capital from the equity markets.

[oldno7]

Bought VSTO last night at 6.01

Added to that this morning at 5.90 as I mentioned I would

Just sold half at 7.2128

I'll buy that half back lower, on a buy signal.

Or if we make new highs--I'll sell my other half

My system sells the highest priced lot first, so the 6.01 sold for 7.2128

[oldno7]

Sold my 2nd half at 7.315--24%ish gain from 5.90

In less than 2 hours.

My day is done unless I get a great buy signal.

Now I'll get some spare time to post meme's on bogley:haha:

[oldno7]

So back to indices based funds.

As a tech trader, yesterday day was a fibonacci projection date I had from some time ago.(I gave these dates to my bogley tech learnin' guy on March 4th)

Today, in a perfect tech world would be a slight blow off rally/dead cat bounce/or as I prefer, a Ross hook.

My next fibonacci date is 3-20, tomorrow.

So in a perfect tech world, tomorrow would take out yesterdays low, we then rally from there into the DOW 24,000 range.

From there more math is needed.

Right or wrong--thats how a tech trader thinks.

If I'm wrong--I will only have 95% of my allocated funds in the market.

If I get lucky, I'll be 100% invested for the run up to 24,000.(20%+ profits from here)

If it continues down, I'll play the cards I've dealt myself, knowing I purchased a lot of funds in the last couple weeks for a great discount.

[dougr]

94286
94287

We're about 113% at the moment. Knock 5% off GDP this year maybe and we'd be at 120%. Still overvalued, unless you apply the old Graham Dodd interest rates to market multiple math.

Doesn't terribly impact oldno's style of trading.

At the depth of 08/09 valuation, the market now would go to around 12k. I think we're in a bear market rally. A lull in shock, cautious belief that we're prepared, but to be followed by a sharp rise in positive cases and further real damage to the economy from the now statewide shutdowns being ordered.

[twotimer]

94286
94287

We're about 113% at the moment. Knock 5% off GDP this year maybe and we'd be at 120%. Still overvalued, unless you apply the old Graham Dodd interest rates to market multiple math.

Doesn't terribly impact oldno's style of trading.

At the depth of 08/09 valuation, the market now would go to around 12k. I think we're in a bear market rally. A lull in shock, cautious belief that we're prepared, but to be followed by a sharp rise in positive cases and further real damage to the economy from the now statewide shutdowns being ordered.Excellent...I too believe that many stocks are still overvalued, but there's plenty that have room to grow. Take a look at Diamondback Energy and Apache Corp. for example...

Everybody's ready to go, but you're right...the bottom end of this thing may still be past the end of this month. As long as these closures keep coming...

[dougr]

Take a look at Diamondback Energy and Apache Corp. for example...


Check the bond market for their take on distressed names. Once you start seeing yields in the teens, strong warning. Anything in the 30s or above, the bond market is pricing in bk and I would never take a risk on common in that case. Corp bond research link: http://finra-markets.morningstar.com/BondCenter/Default.jsp

I'm putting together a list of distressed small energy plays that aren't hugely distressed in their debt, looking for some plays.

The yield on the 2 Apache near term bonds most recently traded is about 10%. Looks like somebody snatched them in the high 70s and peddled them a few hours later in the mid 80s.

94295
94296

[oldno7]

So back to indices based funds.

As a tech trader, yesterday day was a fibonacci projection date I had from some time ago.(I gave these dates to my bogley tech learnin' guy on March 4th)

Today, in a perfect tech world would be a slight blow off rally/dead cat bounce/or as I prefer, a Ross hook.

My next fibonacci date is 3-20, tomorrow.

So in a perfect tech world, tomorrow would take out yesterdays low, we then rally from there into the DOW 24,000 range.

From there more math is needed.

Right or wrong--thats how a tech trader thinks.

If I'm wrong--I will only have 95% of my allocated funds in the market.

If I get lucky, I'll be 100% invested for the run up to 24,000.(20%+ profits from here)

If it continues down, I'll play the cards I've dealt myself, knowing I purchased a lot of funds in the last couple weeks for a great discount.

So with the amount of money I had from my blended dividend fund at the 2-12 highs, I'm now 100% re invested with that money in indices funds.

I'm a bit troubled that we didn't take out the Wed. low, as I had hoped but here I sit.

I planned a trade and I've traded my plan.

When I do Fibonacci date projections(which are generally quite accurate) one never knows what the projected date might bring

BUT there are usually only 3 choices---A market high----A market low---a continuation of existing market trend.

A new low would have been best for my tech. analysis, we were close but maybe not close enough? Monday will tell, a prime day for ugly drops:twisted:

I'm not positioning myself for a long hold of mutual funds, I'm shooting for a 20%ish gain--I should get a sell signal in that area and I'll be once again, out of indices funds.

So, in the very near future, I'm banking on a 20%ish profit.

After that I think we are in serious trouble and I'll re evaluate my position.

[oldno7]

Excellent...I too believe that many stocks are still overvalued, but there's plenty that have room to grow. Take a look at Diamondback Energy and Apache Corp. for example...

Everybody's ready to go, but you're right...the bottom end of this thing may still be past the end of this month. As long as these closures keep coming...

Lots of choices--I bought MLPA yesterday, for your style of holding I think it would be a good fit, with a dividend.

I won't own it long enough to get one, I'm sure.

It was a technical buy for me.

[BasinCruiser]

What’s the difference between illegal investor insider trading and this corrupt legislator trading?


94302


https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackkelly/2020/03/20/senators-accused-of-insider-trading-dumping-stocks-after-coronavirus-briefings/

[twotimer]

Check the bond market for their take on distressed names. Once you start seeing yields in the teens, strong warning. Anything in the 30s or above, the bond market is pricing in bk and I would never take a risk on common in that case. Corp bond research link: http://finra-markets.morningstar.com/BondCenter/Default.jsp

I'm putting together a list of distressed small energy plays that aren't hugely distressed in their debt, looking for some plays.

The yield on the 2 Apache near term bonds most recently traded is about 10%. Looks like somebody snatched them in the high 70s and peddled them a few hours later in the mid 80s.

94295
94296Dougr...hey man, I appreciate you're detailing info about these companies I mentioned...but what you posted is absolute Chinese to me. Are you saying these two stocks are to be avoided?

[twotimer]

What’s the difference between illegal investor insider trading and this corrupt legislator trading?


94302


https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackkelly/2020/03/20/senators-accused-of-insider-trading-dumping-stocks-after-coronavirus-briefings/Gordon Gekko to Bud Fox..."See that bum sitting there? The only difference between him and me if that I have information, and he doesn't".

I listened to an analysis of this yesterday and they're going to get away with it.

[dougr]

Dougr...hey man, I appreciate you're detailing info about these companies I mentioned...but what you posted is absolute Chinese to me. Are you saying these two stocks are to be avoided?

It comes down to what the bond market is saying about a company's prospects for survival. Normally bond market info says nothing, other than beating along to the drum of interest rates in general. But when a company is in trouble, the bond market speaks. What normally would be a 3% bond might go to 10, 20, 50, 100%+ "interest rate" (more correctly called the "yield"). The bond market is much smarter and less emotional. It's filled with professionals, and retail buyers in it have professional advice and guidance.

So in picking energy names when there's an existential threat to the survival of the company and/or the industry it's in, you look to the bond market numbers. In the above screenshots, those are the most recent trades of Apache and Diamondback bonds. If you start to see yields into the teens (the "yield" column, 5th from the left), the bond market is saying the risk of bankruptcy is elevated and real. Generally in a bankruptcy, the common stock goes to zero. Bonds recover 15 to 40 cents on the dollar, roughly, or in some industries that have a lot of capital in plants and such you might get 60 cents on the dollar. Lot of variables. The "price" column (4th from left) is showing the most recent trades of Diamondback bonds at 65, 65.5, and 63.315 cents on the dollar.

Compared to a mega like Exxon, where the bond market assigns zero risk of bankruptcy. The prices and yields in XOM are stable. Understand that prices will move somewhat, 90 to 110 range, which changes the yield as the market demands more or less from corporate bonds across the board.

Then compare to a micro with serious bk risk, Laredo Petroleum, LPI ticker, where some of the recent trades were around 28 cents on the dollar. Which gives a yield of 41.861% on that most recently traded bond. Consider that: 41% on a bond that matures in 2028. Who wouldn't take that? Except the market believes you'll never see the money with bankruptcy coming.

So for Diamondback shares, you have two issues. 1, what is the profitability going to be going forward, and 2, you have some bk risk. For Exxon you have no perceived bk risk, just profitability risk. LPI has large bk risk. For us retail investors, since it's difficult to fully understand the risks in a company, it's best to avoid any where the smart bond market is saying bk risk is real. Hence why I'm looking for beaten down names with little bk risk. And it may end up being only the megas that qualify in my end thinking.

94305
94304

[dougrz]

Overview of sectors and country selloffs so far.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200321/b0d82176e62b93cd942b49f24550ed5f.jpg

[dougrz]

For prior 30%+ declines, the market's subsequent moves.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200321/071cdd5f03e8e9695a71f4dd25a26ea3.jpg

[dougrz]

Dougr...hey man, I appreciate you're detailing info about these companies I mentioned...but what you posted is absolute Chinese to me. Are you saying these two stocks are to be avoided?I didn't directly answer your Q. For these 2 it's a relative question probably. If, for example, there are dozens of names 60% off, and in ranking what the bond market is saying these 2 are near the bottom, then I'd avoid. Then layer on top your projection for oil price recovery. Then on top the length of the virus shutdown. Hard to say, can't answer.

Lame I know, but I haven't formulated an opinion yet.

[oldno7]

Lame I know, but I haven't formulated an opinion yet.


In trading the markets--No opinion is indeed an opinion.

Generally marked by consolidation, narrow channel, etc.

[twotimer]

I didn't directly answer your Q. For these 2 it's a relative question probably. If, for example, there are dozens of names 60% off, and in ranking what the bond market is saying these 2 are near the bottom, then I'd avoid. Then layer on top your projection for oil price recovery. Then on top the length of the virus shutdown. Hard to say, can't answer.

Lame I know, but I haven't formulated an opinion yet.Thanks Dougrz...I appreciate your insight and time spent on this. I'll be doing research on these companies to see just how healthy they are...they looked like good buys because of their price history along with my notion that this gas was won't last for an extended period.

Picking stocks outside the big boys can be a lot of work!

[dougr]

I think we're getting closer to maximum hysteria. The media has really ramped it up this weekend. That doesn't mean the market bottom is near, that's still going to be a function of how much economic damage is done by the lockdowns. But it's one variable pointing to it.

[oldno7]

I think we're getting closer to maximum hysteria. The media has really ramped it up this weekend. That doesn't mean the market bottom is near, that's still going to be a function of how much economic damage is done by the lockdowns. But it's one variable pointing to it.

I believe we are at or near a market bottom for this--the first leg down.

Like I've said before--I'm positioned for a sharp snap back rally, then going back to cash.

We have exceeded the first leg down low of the 1987 crash, about 9% short of the 1929 crash.

Both markets had a rebound--then sold off to take out the first leg lows(Now we are into History and Math)

The "29" crash dropped 89% by 1932.

In the stock Market--90 year cycles are very important.


I had hopes of a quick rebound on the first 16% drop, now--too much wealth and business are being destroyed.

They will require a slow, methodical recovery.IMO


No one knows anybody with covid-19 but how many know folks with big fancy houses,cars, trucks, boats, RV's etc

And all the above financed to the hilt.

These people will get a couple months reprieve with bailout money, if they qualify, if not, their journey down will be expedited.

The ol' axiom of "cash is king" will become more important as the economy tanks.

There will be 80-90-100% off sales on items that people could afford in good times but lost everything in bad.

This is the 3rd major crash I've lived through, the first I didn't have enough wealth to even notice what folks were complaining about.

The 2nd, I lost several hundred thousand in real estate.

I tried to learn, this one I was mostly prepared for.

I will say I was positioned for a correction and the crash was a surprise but I was set to profit-this time.(slow learner)

No one knows where this market is going or will end up, but there are tools--mathematical tools and history tools, that give us some insight.

[dougrz]

Agree with everything you wrote. We have 2, or 3, variables at play. Virus fear, actual economic damage of the shutdowns, and oh by the way oil patch bankruptcies and dislocations.

If the shutdowns go 2 or 3 months, the leveraging blowout could easily portend a Great Depression 2.

Not worth the cost of saving even 200k or 500k people when you consider the suicides, lost wealth to pay for modern medicine going forward, destroyed families, children not born because of, empowerment of China, etc.

This is a dream scenario for the communist wing in this country. The nail in the coffin of Western Civilization potentially.

That said, we're on it. Meaning private industry and the public, and I believe we'll prevail.

[dougrz]

A Fed governor tonight said we might see 30% unemployment and loss of 1/2 of GDP by end of Q2. Market is going to violently sell off this week.

If we did actually see 30% unemployment? Sub 10k on the Dow and a depression. We have neither the personal nor national fortitude to survive such a calamity. We also don't have the money. These trillions planned are already seriously damaging our wealth and future standard of living. At some point this turns into spiking interest rates and hyperinflation.

We either beat this medically quickly or we go down. Never thought I'd say that about this virus. Though I should have known, since the reaction to this virus has been clearly coming for weeks.

But the conscious political decisions to put the country on a track to destroy everything and everyone in order to save either thousands or tens or hundreds of thousands is calamitous.

[twotimer]

A Fed governor tonight said we might see 30% unemployment and loss of 1/2 of GDP by end of Q2. Market is going to violently sell off this week.

If we did actually see 30% unemployment? Sub 10k on the Dow and a depression. We have neither the personal nor national fortitude to survive such a calamity. We also don't have the money. These trillions planned are already seriously damaging our wealth and future standard of living. At some point this turns into spiking interest rates and hyperinflation.

We either beat this medically quickly or we go down. Never thought I'd say that about this virus. Though I should have known, since the reaction to this virus has been clearly coming for weeks.

But the conscious political decisions to put the country on a track to destroy everything and everyone in order to save either thousands or tens or hundreds of thousands is calamitous.I'm gonna run counter to you here, dougrz...I don't believe this for a moment. Just because everybody's been ordered to take some time off doesn't mean it's all going to crash and burn. I firmly believe once we get back to work there will be a quick recovery. It's like when you go on vacation...it's all just waiting for you to come back.

No shortage of doomsayers out there, mental hypochondriacs as I call them. In regards to the stock market, I'm glad this happened...everybody knew it had gotten too expensive and a bear market was coming. This is what triggered it. Of course it was big, the DOW damn near doubled in 5 years...now that done its thing we'll climb right back up. Maybe something like this is a cleansing, y'know? Shakes out the loose teeth.

Everybody's just waiting for Trump and his team to say the worst is behind us, then it's over. Of course this is just my opinion...but I've always been an optimistic kind of dude.

If the Army had armed soldiers at every intersection or entire cities were going up in mushroom clouds...then I'd say we have a real problem. But it's just a nasty flu bug that kills old folks and we're doing our best to stop them from dying all over the place. That's it...the USA isn't going to collapse.

[oldno7]

I'm gonna run counter to you here, dougrz...I don't believe this for a moment. Just because everybody's been ordered to take some time off doesn't mean it's all going to crash and burn. I firmly believe once we get back to work there will be a quick recovery. It's like when you go on vacation...it's all just waiting for you to come back.

No shortage of doomsayers out there, mental hypochondriacs as I call them. In regards to the stock market, I'm glad this happened...everybody knew it had gotten too expensive and a bear market was coming. This is what triggered it. Of course it was big, the DOW damn near doubled in 5 years...now that done its thing we'll climb right back up. Maybe something like this is a cleansing, y'know? Shakes out the loose teeth.

Everybody's just waiting for Trump and his team to say the worst is behind us, then it's over. Of course this is just my opinion...but I've always been an optimistic kind of dude.

If the Army had armed soldiers at every intersection or entire cities were going up in mushroom clouds...then I'd say we have a real problem. But it's just a nasty flu bug that kills old folks and we're doing our best to stop them from dying all over the place. That's it...the USA isn't going to collapse.


What the dems can't get through their piglosi heads is that business creates jobs, PERIOD

If business' are destroyed in this crash the time for recovery will be 10 fold as business rebuilds.
Meanwhile employment is gone because business is slowly coming on line.

If business' is helped to the extent of being solid and viable when the virus is gone, the recovery can be quick.

Business has to use the money to stay afloat, not insider stock buying.

[oldno7]

I was very much against the GM bailout because it was majority owned by UAW.

The bailout went straight to UAW and now GM is in the same situation.

This needs to be a smart bailout--not a money giveaway

[oldno7]

Futures are 0ff 850

Interesting oil had an early drop but has come back and pretty much trading on the open.

I bet on oil last week, I'm already in the money and won't lose but I hope this market gains some legs to the upside.

[oldno7]

I'd like a billion share day with a positive close tomorrow.(DOW)

Is that too much to ask?

[oldno7]

DOW dropped over 1000 in futures AND now is up 400.

Oil hung pretty steady through the night and is also up.

Now in the DOW

https://i.imgflip.com/3toy8e.jpg

[dougrz]

Fed announced commercial paper QE this morn, prompting the reversal. This isn't a market with price discovery, where technicals or fundamentals weigh. It's just a machine reacting to external news and levers that are unpredictable.

[twotimer]

Well they're doing everything they can, eh? It won't be truly over until the restrictions are lifted and we just have to live with taking the hits...the hits being people get sick and old folks drop dead all over the place.

I haven't bought a nickel of stock yet...I reckon it'll bounce around a little less violently before it takes off again. I'm only 56, so I'm buying to hold.

Glad to see it going up though...everybody's just waiting.

[dougr]

We are getting closer to the point of a bond collapse. It's either 75 minutes from now or 75 years, to narrow down the time frame. Yields on bonds are low. Stocks are volatile. Money is looking to go somewhere for a return. As the govt prints in these stimulus bills, there comes a point where money says, "Cash is getting less valuable with all this new money being created. Therefore I need more return." That's when bond yields rise (prices decrease), and stocks sell off in response as they need to price in the less valuable money they're producing. A spiral of hyperinflation. Which govt doesn't even remotely consider in this massive spending binge.

There is no wisdom in this country. No pillars of sound money. No base of discipline. It's just a wild ride from one momentary excess to another. Where celebrities have more say than farmers. Amongst many examples of the lack of cultural wisdom.

[oldno7]

Up just over 10% in this mornings VSTO trade.

Now to see if it drops down enough to give another buy

[dougr]

https://www.bloombergquint.com/markets/mortgage-bond-sales-flood-market-amid-pleas-for-help-from-u-s

The bond collapse might by closer to 75 mins. News like that ^ this weekend must have spooked the Fed into announcing this extra buying this morning.

Treacherous times.

[oldno7]

Lots more interest in bullets than oil, so far this morning.

might not get a chance to re buy

[oldno7]

https://www.bloombergquint.com/markets/mortgage-bond-sales-flood-market-amid-pleas-for-help-from-u-s

The bond collapse might by closer to 75 mins. News like that ^ this weekend must have spooked the Fed into announcing this extra buying this morning.

Treacherous times.

followed closely by commercial real estate.

[twotimer]

If the Army had armed soldiers at every intersection .Uh yeah, OK...gettin' close here in Denver, that's for damn sure.

Thankfully, Trump seems to be fully aware that things are getting out of hand...based on what I heard him say today. Hopefully he'll kick the doors open on this thing quick then the Governors will have to follow suit.

[dougr]

twotimer, never noticed you were in Denver. As am I (western 'burbs). We should meet up at some point.

[twotimer]

@twotimer (http://www.bogley.com/forum/member.php?u=28123), never noticed you were in Denver. As am I (western 'burbs). We should meet up at some point.Yes indeed. I'm really busy with work right now, I'll PM ya when I slow down...which may be sooner rather than later 'cuz of this stupid prick throwing down his edicts.

I'm getting more and more convinced that the Chinese and the liberal Illuminati set this whole thing up. They dropped a nuke right in Trump's lap. He's being judged heavily in how he handles this. I was wondering what was next after their Impeachment scheme failed...this came hot on it's heels. I'm not a conspiracy type guy, but for years now these bowling pins just line right up. Anyway, I'm pretty pissed off right now...you might have to listen to me rant!

[oldno7]

Stock market has dropped a bit over 38% as of yesterday.

This morning dow up over 900pts.

[oldno7]

VSTO will gap up this morning.

I generally sell gaps up, especially when an overbought condition exist and look to re buy on a signal after the gap has been filled.

Over 90% of gaps get filled, it's just math.

And not all gaps are created equal.

[oldno7]

VSTO up 10%

[oldno7]

Gap filled

With no buy signal for me.

[Iceaxe]

These daily swings in stock values are insane... the DJIA is up over 11% in a single day...

Climb-Utah.com

[Iceaxe]

Dow has best day since 1933

https://www.ksl.com/article/46733809/dow-has-best-day-since-1933-as-congress-nears-deal-on-aid

[twotimer]

These daily swings in stock values are insane... the DJIA is up over 11% in a single day...

Climb-Utah.comYeah well, either day traders are thrown' around a lot of cash or people with a long term vision are taking chunks. I can't see it shooting up all week, but if it's not near as violent then it might be time to get in. Trump said Easter (maybe before) when things are gonna lighten up, so for the next two weeks I reckon it'll bounce a bit. Glad to see it though...it shows that people are just waiting to shoot it back up.

[dougrz]

Ugly time in the market. It's just a machine reacting to external news.

[dougrz]

That's not bullish for stocks.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200325/6807cb027514f537cadf012d114d50d3.jpg

[accadacca]

Initial jobless claims surged to a record 3.3M last week as the coronavirus takes a heavy toll on the economy. It's the highest number of initial jobless claims in history.

[oldno7]

A while ago I mentioned I missed a Gold buy thinking we had more down to go.

I now believe I missed that buy.

When the stock market crashed, it dropped 36%.

Gold dropped 45%

So having missed the bottom, I believe we are now poised for a huge bull market in Gold/precious metals.

Historically, it looks like it will be a long and sustained run up.

I'm currently looking for a precious metal deal to jump into.

[dougrz]

When the stock market crashed, it dropped 36%.

Gold dropped 45%

During which crash? I'm not seeing gold down 45% here.

I shot 1/5 of my cash hoard since this all started. I'm too cautious to go balls to the wall nowadays. I'll let a few more weeks pass, as I suspect this to be a bear market rally. I didn't sell any of my long term holdings during this entire period, though.

But I do tend to agree with your metals call. Either way, recovery or lower, with this massive creation of money and I'm sure another stimulus bill of an even larger $4T or some horrific number, metals have nowhere to go but up. So many dollars in the system now.

If we thought 08/09 era QE and debt were setting us up for a dollar crash and hyperinflation, then that was child's play compared to this.

[oldno7]

During which crash? I'm not seeing gold down 45% here.

I shot 1/5 of my cash hoard since this all started. I'm too cautious to go balls to the wall nowadays. I'll let a few more weeks pass, as I suspect this to be a bear market rally. I didn't sell any of my long term holdings during this entire period.

But I do tend to agree with your metals call. Either way, recovery or lower, with this massive creation of money and I'm sure another stimulus bill of an even larger $4T or some horrific number, metals have nowhere to go but up. So many dollars in the system now.

If we thought 08/09 era QE and debt were setting us up for a dollar crash and hyperinflation, then that was child's play compared to this.

Sorry I should have posted that. In the crash of 1929, gold companies were shining after the crash, most notably Homestake Mining.

After the initial 46% drop in stocks, in 1929, Homestake crashed as well.

After that initial drop, Homestake climbed 737% over the next 6 years and 3 months.

So in our market, my best fit for Homestake is HUI.

HUI---dropped almost exactly 45% from it's high just as Homestake did in 1929.

So are we in the beginning of a 6 year bull run in the gold market?

My historical and mathematical theory would say yes.

Does that make more sense?

[dougrz]

Sorry I should have posted that. In the crash of 1929, gold companies were shining after the crash, most notably Homestake Mining.

After the initial 46% drop in stocks, in 1929, Homestake crashed as well.

After that initial drop, Homestake climbed 737% over the next 6 years and 3 months.

So in our market, my best fit for Homestake is HUI.

HUI---dropped almost exactly 45% from it's high just as Homestake did in 1929.

So are we in the beginning of a 6 year bull run in the gold market?

My historical and mathematical theory would say yes.

Does that make more sense?Yes, 1929 analogy.

You mentioned HUI before. How are you investing in that index exactly?

[oldno7]

For me to be long in any gold position, I was wanting to take out the support created by the Sept. 2010 low of 131.12

Instead--we took out the May 2018 low of 147 and went straight up from there but I think there is more--much more.

My only problem is I need a good entry spot, we will see what I get from here.

[oldno7]

Yes, 1929 analogy.

You mentioned HUI before. How are you investing in that index exactly?

I haven't decided yet and would more than welcome any gold ideas you have.

At this point I'm mostly looking Barrick(GOLD)

I'll wait and see if I get a buy on my system, I likely should.

[oldno7]

As far as the indices go, theres a fair to good chance the low is in, suites me as I was 100% reinvested as I stated here.

I've done well the last 3 days.

But I believe those waiting for the economy to recover and then stocks to rise will be disappointed.

In the 2008 crash, aftermath, stocks started the recovery and the economy followed, I believe there is a very good chance that is already happening here.

[dougrz]

I haven't decided yet and would more than welcome any gold ideas you have.

At this point I'm mostly looking Barrick(GOLD)

I'll wait and see if I get a buy on my system, I likely should.I would look for the lowest AIC and debt in whatever miner. Those rule all else in that sector.

Edit: actually, if you're quite confident you would care more about reserves than AIC. Low debt would still be highly desirable to fund expansion. I, being cautious, always look to AIC.

[oldno7]

I would look for the lowest AIC and debt in whatever miner. Those rule all else in that sector.

Help me with AIC, I'm just a poor dumb hillbilly trying to scratch out a couple bucks a day using technicals.

AIC I've never used.

[oldno7]

of course all charts in the sector mirror each other closely.

Heres an ETF--GDX

[oldno7]

Leaning pretty heavy towards GDX at this time

$21.50 area.

If today is a Ross hook, that will ruin that price.

[dougr]

Yes, GDX, the miner's ETF. GDXJ is the junior miners. Certainly the way to go for safety, if you can't dig and understand an individual company. Although the beasts, like Newmont and Barrick, are so large and sophisticated, they are close to the index.

AIC = all in costs; total cost to extract an ounce company-wide on all their projects. Gives an easy metric for profitability per ounce. Although the industry apparently adopted a 2nd measure, AISC = all in sustaining costs. I learned AIC 10/12 years ago and am not up on AISC. Barrick had long been a leader in AIC, = lowest. I'd be surprised if they're not still.

And incidentally, if you were looking to silver miners, beyond critical to have the lowest AIC and low debt with such a terribly depressed silver price now. I would expect some producers to go under if these silver prices last a year.

94351

[oldno7]

I'm guessing silver will follow the sector somewhat but I want to be Gold based.

Your fundamentals look to align somewhat to a lot, like my technicals.

Technicals give me a precise method of entry/exit, something not usually associated with fundamentals.

[dougr]

Yeah well

Quoted to catch your attention.

On the heels of our "what bonds tell in a distressed stock" discussion, look at Whiting Petroleum, ticker WLL.

94360

From $8 to 80 cents. Dang, it lost 90% of its value, if it could come back you could make some good money. But look at the bond sales today:


94362

Notice the first bond trade, matures on April 1, 2020, 4 days from now. The price was 50.5. Par is 100. So you'll double your money in 4 days.

The 11th listed bond matures 1/15/2026, sold for 9.5 (par 100, all these are). So you'd 10x your money, for a yearly yield of 82.9% (almost a double each year). The "Trade Quantity" column tells the size, $1 million+ here. Someone sold $1 million in bonds, for 9.5 cents on the dollar. They acquired them at what price and when we don't know, but at one time these were about $10 million in bonds at par value.

The bond market is saying not only bankrupt, but bankrupt in the next 4 days before the April 1 bonds mature. We'll see if this happens.

[oldno7]

I'm slowly acquiring shares of GDX

[oldno7]

I'm slowly acquiring shares of GDX

Dang--I just started buying Friday, have much more to invest.

Up--3 1/2% this morning.

[oldno7]

Just bought a teeny bit more GDX, just under $24.

I need 21.58 to be a mathematical support area but I'm getting a feeling Gold is gaining strength and may not retrace as far as I'd like./

[oldno7]

And a teeny weeny lit bit more at 23.795

[dougr]

Just bought a teeny bit more GDX, just under $24.

I need 21.58 to be a mathematical support area but I'm getting a feeling Gold is gaining strength and may not retrace as far as I'd like./

https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-03-30/Russian-central-bank-halts-gold-purchases.html

With the Russian central bank suspending gold buys, we might see a softening of gold prices. They were a decent sized net buyer for the last several years.

[oldno7]

So the indices are still off about 25%.

The way I played this drop from the top, I'm currently up 4.75%

I have a number in mind to sell, and I want to sell.

[oldno7]

I know this is basic math but I thought I would show it anyway.

On a 1,000,000 account for a buy and hold investor, at this point--they have 750,000

As a trader-- a 1,000,000 account is now worth--1,047,500

A difference of $297,500

And I don't see us hitting DOW 29,000 again for a year or two.

[oldno7]

And now, I'm slowly filtering the indices money into gold based funds/stocks.

[oldno7]

As of now--in the money I reinvested in the indices--I'm 80% Gold--20% indices

[dougr]

I know this is basic math but I thought I would show it anyway.

On a 1,000,000 account for a buy and hold investor, at this point--they have 750,000

As a trader-- a 1,000,000 account is now worth--1,047,500

A difference of $297,500

And I don't see us hitting DOW 29,000 again for a year or two.

It becomes a matter of time/life vs trading. For a stretch of about 2 years starting about 6 or 7 years ago, I traded options from open to close daily. I used the Ichimoku Cloud as my main technical indicator, with 2 other MACD, RSI -type indicators, I don't remember which. I had become highly refined at seeing movements, I was trading on 15 minute bars. But that literally became an all consuming life. It was too much and too consuming and too stressful.

There has to be happy medium, and it sounds like you have it. I've gone from that 15 minute insanity to longer term fundamentals and laying off moves until they cook for at least a few months.

[oldno7]

Mostly moving to GDX

waiting for a buy signal in GOLD

Keep in mind--this is only the money I have in a mutual fund account.

I'm still trading daily and VSTO has been on fire.

Longer term I use Fibonacci and Gann projections that calculate.

Today is a 180deg. day from the Sept. 3 low.(My Gann Calculation)


My life is trading--thats all I do.

[accadacca]

No surprises...

Dow dips 400 points on Tuesday, capping its worst first quarter ever

[Iceaxe]

No surprises...

Dow dips 400 points on Tuesday, capping its worst first quarter ever#FAKENEWS... maybe one of these days Accadacca will stop watching CNN.

1987 was the worst first quarter ever when the DJIA dropped 25.88%. Last quarter dropped 23.2%.

Anyone that can math understands why the percentage is what's important.
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200331/a9514b8593f1c0305a73b31d3aef7915.jpg

Climb-Utah.com

[accadacca]

#FAKENEWS... maybe one of these days Accadacca will stop watching CNN.

1987 was the worst first quarter ever when the DJIA dropped 25.88%. Last quarter dropped 23.2%.

Anyone that can math understands why the percentage is what's important.
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200331/a9514b8593f1c0305a73b31d3aef7915.jpg

Climb-Utah.com

WRONG! It’s from USA Today. You’ll have to bitch to them.

Check out this article from USA TODAY:

Dow dips 400 points on Tuesday, capping its worst first quarter ever

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2020/03/31/dow-markets-worst-quarter-since-2008-coronavirus-trump/5093369002/

[dougrz]

I'm thinking now the market retests the lows and potentially goes lower, but not necessarily with the high volatility we had seen. Rather with many months of a plain bear market.

Based on the things Birx and Fauci said in the presser today, we're in for several months of weak economic activity. Going to weigh on earnings for the rest of the year at least.

[oldno7]

Yep agree, I'm still transitioning to Gold, may not get everything there.

[oldno7]

From this point--I'm thinking Gold preserves value(hedge) to slightly increases over the Dow.

The regaining of market highs gets tougher the longer this goes on.

But once again--Trump is the kicker, he can build an economy faster, better, bigglier, than anyone.

If we go democrat--a huge recession to depression is a given, it's what they prefer.

[Iceaxe]

WRONG! It’s from USA Today. You’ll have to bitch to them.

Check out this article from USA TODAY:

Dow dips 400 points on Tuesday, capping its worst first quarter ever

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2020/03/31/dow-markets-worst-quarter-since-2008-coronavirus-trump/5093369002/Do the math... Don't get sucked in with all the other sheep.

Math tip - Points dropped is not percentage lost.

Climb-Utah.com

[oldno7]

Do the math... Don't get sucked in with all the other sheep.

Math tip - Points dropped is not percentage lost.

Climb-Utah.com

but it's tabloid news, got it at the grocery checkout, you mean it's not all true?:facepalm:

[oldno7]

futures off 800 this morning.

[dougr]

Yeah well


The bond market is saying not only bankrupt, but bankrupt in the next 4 days before the April 1 bonds mature. We'll see if this happens.

WLL filed Chapter 11 this morning. It's informative to follow these bankruptcy stories to see how the stock and bonds make out.

Details: The Plan will provide for, among other things: (1) significant de-leveraging of the Company’s capital structure by over $2.2 billion through the exchange of all of the Notes for 97% of the new equity of the reorganized Company to be issued pursuant to the Plan; (2) payment in full in cash and/or refinancing of the Company’s revolving credit facility; (3) the payment in full in cash of all other secured creditors, tax and other priority claimants, and employees; and (4) the Company’s existing equity holders receiving 3% of the new equity of the reorganized Company and warrants (as described in the Term Sheet)."

So the bonds holders are given 97% ownership and the existing stock holders get 3%. Looking at the bonds this morning, all of them are trading at less than 10 cents on the dollar.

[oldno7]

VSTO up 5% this morning

up over 100% since I mentioned it here.

[oldno7]

GDX up over 3% today

[oldno7]

So instead of my money being down 2 1/2% this morning--It's up 4%

I believe this divergence will grow exponentially,

[oldno7]

GDX hitting 5%

[oldno7]

So instead of my money being down 2 1/2% this morning--It's up 4%

I believe this divergence will grow exponentially,

The spread as been ^
6%-7% thus far today, will be fun to track.

[oldno7]

The spread as been ^
6%-7% thus far today, will be fun to track.


End of day spread:

Dow -4.44%

GDX + 4.3%

Spread 8.74%

[oldno7]

Futures were up 400 about 30 min ago, now down 200

[oldno7]

GDX will gap up biggly this morning,

[oldno7]

Dow holding steady--GDX up 2-2 1/2%

As I've said--I switched to Gold based funds for preservation of capital,

My thought about a 90 year cycle would expand capital.

I'd be happy not to lose capital as the indices drop.

If I can expand even half, a quarter of the 1929 run up, I'd be ecstatic.

[oldno7]

At the 2 hour mark for the markets--DOW is up 1%ish

GDX up 6%ish

[oldno7]

DOW has been playing in the +300 point range this morning.

It is now back to the open.

If the open support goes out, it could be a negative afternoon.

[oldno7]

End of day spread:

Dow -4.44%

GDX + 4.3%

Spread 8.74%

Dow +2.24% today(since selling out of indices -2.2%)

GDX +4.2% today(since buying GDX +8.5%)

Spread--10.7%

[oldno7]

Dow +2.24% today(since selling out of indices -2.2%)

GDX +4.2% today(since buying GDX +8.5%)

Spread--10.7%

DOW-1.69%(Since selling -3.89%)

GDX-0.36%(Since buying 8.14%)

Spread 12.03%

[Iceaxe]

Stocks go up and stocks go down...

Most the shit oldno7 posts is Chinese.

Climb-Utah.com

[oldno7]

Simple business/market math.

[oldno7]

But I can give you cliff notes:haha:

I have mathematical indicators that had me get out of all indices funds prior to crash

The market crashed 36%

I was buying and losing money as the market went down.

The market rebounded about 25%

In that 25% recovery I made a 4.75% profit from my buying as the market dropped.

I then got back out of all indices based funds and went to Gold based fund(GDX)

Since getting back out of indices, the DOW has dropped 3.89%

GDX is up 8.14% since I bought it.

So to put it into dollars that you understand.

If you had a 1,000,000 account at the top and bought into the lows as it dropped, then sold on the pullback, your account would be 1,045,000 when I got out of indices and bought gold.

As of today, that same account that was worth 1,000,000 at DOW-29,568, is now worth 1,130,063.

A buy and holder who had 1,000,000 at DOW 29,568, today would have approximately $720,000 as the market is 28%ish off the highs.

A difference of $410,063.

Now of course no one has that kind of money in their retirement account, so you can use whatever factor that is applicable.

[oldno7]

The "spread" I post is the price difference between if I would have held indice based mutual funds but instead went 100% into gold fund(GDX)

That happened on the last pullback and I posted about it.

I've posted every move I've made and explained why, as they were happening or before.

To me--someones Chinese is my knowledge of Market math and Market history and the ability to make money knowing that chinese.

Thats all.

The bogley person I worked with over the last year knows a lot of what I'm speaking of.

I believe that person has made good money using my system and that person, as of the other day, was into GDX.

So buying and holding nets you $720,000 left from your $1,000,000 account.

Knowing Market math and market history nets that same account $1,130,063

So I guess knowing "chinese" has it's benefits:ne_nau:

And the spread on those numbers should grow--Bigley.

As a side note for those who believe the market will always come back, they are likely correct.

The 1929 crash came back in 26years.

And it's very likely we have new lows to hit here.

https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/gs-live/uploads%2F1500918580784-gold-silver.jpg

[accadacca]

Fake news?

https://i.ibb.co/b52vMMV/F8-BF0649-ED0-A-4054-B497-C72595945-EA0.jpg

[Iceaxe]

Fake news?

How about that's not really news... anyone that follows stocks knows to look at the futures market to get a good idea what the market will do when it opens.... I've known that for 40 years... I'm more surprised that the Clinton News Network is just figuring it out.



Climb-Utah.com

[Iceaxe]

My prediction... March 23rd was the bottom.

Climb-Utah.com

[oldno7]

DOW-1.69%(Since selling -3.89%)

GDX-0.36%(Since buying 8.14%)

Spread 12.03%


No more chinese after today:

I'm out of GDX for now.

Dow + 7.73%Day(+3.84%)

GDX +5.57%day(13.71%)I sold considerably higher than the closing price so my % would be better.

I also bought it again in the last 15 minutes and sold in the EXT session.

Chinese done.

At this point from DOW 29,568 I'm up about 14%

I believe technical trading(math) will always outperform the markets.

I posted everything real time or sooner.

[dougr]

For me, the next month or so will dictate if I get entirely out of equities.

The cascading risks are these:

-deep recession lasts into 2021
-Dems sweep
-increased tax and regulatory burden makes biz recovery difficult
- "relief" programs, UBI, expanded welfare create a large, angry class living directly on the govt payroll and voting for more
-amnesty and some form of open borders spikes number of indigents further, cements permanent Dem rule

We're so close to the precipice, falling into an abyss of Dem govt hell. What a confluence of events. I've always viewed the risk/reward profile of this year decidedly risky for equities, and the setup is even riskier now.

[rockgremlin]

For me, the next month or so will dictate if I get entirely out of equities.

The cascading risks are these:

-deep recession lasts into 2021
-Dems sweep
-increased tax and regulatory burden makes biz recovery difficult
- "relief" programs, UBI, expanded welfare create a large, angry class living directly on the govt payroll and voting for more
-amnesty and some form of open borders spikes number of indigents further, cements permanent Dem rule

We're so close to the precipice, falling into an abyss of Dem govt hell. What a confluence of events. I've always viewed the risk/reward profile of this year decidedly risky for equities, and the setup is even riskier now.


Respectfully disagree with most of this. If the Dems put up a juggernaut candidate worthy of toppling Trump then I'd agree with you. But Biden is so far removed from a threat to Trump that it's comical. Even all of my stalwart liberal friends have at this point conceded to another 4 years of the Trump Train.

[oldno7]

Only a couple things that may slow down the markets.

No business running, Country at a standstill.(medical sector might be good)

New record high unemployement

Oil at 70 year lows

Inflation/hyperinflation

But it has shrugged those off in the last few days.

My system doesn't care about any of that.

[oldno7]

I bought GDX last night and this morning--I've locked in profits

Bought VSTO this morning--locked in profits.

All with minimal risk.

BUT risk.

[Iceaxe]

Never forget... Mark Cuban predicted the US economy would calapse if Trump was elected President...

Mark Cuban predicts 'world-changing' innovation stemming from outbreak, keeps 'door open' to 2020 bid

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/mark-cuban-on-how-economy-will-return-to-normal-keeping-the-door-open-to-2020-bid

[dougrz]

The Wisconsin state Supreme Court loss tonight for the sitting conservative justice endorsed by Trump bodes ill for Nov. A Dem took the governorship last year as well.

Plays into my thinking of selling out of equities as Nov approaches. I sold down about 12% today unrelated to this result.

[dougrz]

The fund manager survey is always interesting to review. These guys drive a lot of capital around.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200414/d341226d15891b805ca72edccc5a54e0.jpg

[oldno7]

Buying and selling gold almost daily.

Huge run up so far--the fastest per day in history.

Average 2.72% per day, prior to today.

ok--no more chinese.

[dougrz]

Via GLD?

[dougrz]

I'm sticking to my belief that we retest the late March lows. Recall the market was historically expensive just before this, 150% total market cap vs GDP. We're at a better level now, if we were still humming. But add on the mass economic carnage these lockdowns have caused? Lower to go.

I'm still thinking Dow 15k, S&P 1750 range is the low. Why that? About 50% of peak, would bring total mkt cap vs GDP to 75%, with a 10, 20, 30% contraction of GDP making for about 100% vs GDP, with room for uncertainty and fear.

The only wrench in this theory? Whole lot of new money looking for some place to go.

[oldno7]

The only wrench in this theory? Trump!.

Fixed it for ya.

[oldno7]

Via GLD?



GDX
GOLD
NEM

all at or near 100% from lows

[Iceaxe]

Fixed it for ya.

^^^This^^^

One of these days folks are going to figure out betting against Trump is a losing wager.

But some folks are just slow learner's...

[oldno7]

Not a stock so this spot will have to do.


Today is the last trading day for May oil futures contract.
It's how the big boys buy their oil.
Since it is the last trading day, contract owners of an oil future are required to take physical possession.
Ordinarily this is a good thing, today, there is no space anywhere to store more crude so a selloff began.
Those owning futures contracts are left with selling at HUGE losses.
For the first time in history, a commodity has traded at a negative value as these guys couldn't give oil away.
Current price is -$36ish
If you know how leverage in commodities works, this is mind numbing.

[rockgremlin]

Not a stock so this spot will have to do.


Today is the last trading day for May oil futures contract.
It's how the big boys buy their oil.
Since it is the last trading day, contract owners of an oil future are required to take physical possession.
Ordinarily this is a good thing, today, there is no space anywhere to store more crude so a selloff began.
Those owning futures contracts are left with selling at HUGE losses.
For the first time in history, a commodity has traded at a negative value as these guys couldn't give oil away.
Current price is -$36ish
If you know how leverage in commodities works, this is mind numbing.


This is crazy.

We all know that oil will come back...it always does, the world cannot run without it. But when...? :ne_nau:

[BasinCruiser]

94598

[dougrz]

May closed today at $10. Almost a $40 rally. Whoever "bought" yesterday at -$37 made some nice money.

June contracts traded down to $13 today. This is for WTI delivering at Cushing, OK. Other blends trade uniquely. North Dakota was trading around -$51 yesterday and some Colorado at -$50.

Out months are still around $30 to $35. But storage will fill soon and then production must stop. There is no alternative, it must stop.

To say this will destroy US shale is an understatement. I don't see small US oil operators being able to get financing in the future. Just too much risk of this happening again. This is the second time in recent years.

Given that, the alarm about permanent low prices I don't think is necessarily true. Once US shale is gone, OPEC will be satisfied and start managing their production for profit rather than strategic damage.

[dougr]

Site with many contract prices. https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/block/49 It appears these are all the nearest month. Some are delayed.

WTI monthly contract prices: https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/crude%20oil%20-%20electronic, to 2021. Oil futures go out to 2031 or so.

[oldno7]

I think the market is reacting exactly as it should.

I took money out of the indices and put in gold, that has rocketed up.

I plan to leave a fair amount in gold but I'm hanging on to a stash for the new low.

The March 23 low should easily be broken, I'd be shocked if it isn't.

The first big leg up in a bear market is to convince the holders oners that a bull market will return, it will BUT not for quite awhile.

24,000 has always been my upper number and it has been hit.

Onward and downward--I hope.

No chinese, I know no one follows it..

I do profit from what I say, I don't just throw shit at the wall.

Remember when I was buying GDX between $23 and $24?

It's now hit $34.

[rockgremlin]

I think the market is reacting exactly as it should.

I took money out of the indices and put in gold, that has rocketed up.

I plan to leave a fair amount in gold but I'm hanging on to a stash for the new low.

The March 23 low should easily be broken, I'd be shocked if it isn't.

The first big leg up in a bear market is to convince the holders oners that a bull market will return, it will BUT not for quite awhile.

24,000 has always been my upper number and it has been hit.

Onward and downward--I hope.

No chinese, I know no one follows it..

I do profit from what I say, I don't just throw shit at the wall.

Remember when I was buying GDX between $23 and $24?

It's now hit $34.


I'm all out of the indices as of yesterday. Was trading very nicely there for a little while with a mixed bag of DOW, OLN, VSTO, WFC, GOLD, GDX, WEN, MLPA, KR and UAL. Made a tidy little profit.

At the moment I'm sidelined, anticipating the next leg down (I hope).

[Rob L]

West Texas Intermediate (WTI)?

[oldno7]

For GDX it is in a position of "too much risk", for a minute.

I would like a pullback into the $27.50 range to re buy.

Problem is, gold is strong right now and will likely get stronger as panic, once again sets in.

So I'll start slowly buying as it drops(if it drops), at the very least if this temporary high holds it should hit $30.60

This is a great fund to hold longer term as well as daytrade, I plan on doing both,again, when/if it hits my numbers.

I'm also holding an ETF "MJ", it represents exactly what it sounds like and I think it has potential to the upside.

[oldno7]

GDX down

MJ Up

[rockgremlin]

MJ Up


I see your good friend Aleaf popped today as well... all the way up to $0.37. :lol8:

[oldno7]

Today is my day to sell MJ and VSTO

Waiting in GDX to re buy.

[rockgremlin]

Still waiting with baited breath for that disastrous crash that's supposed to take the DJIA down into the 10,000 - 15,000 range. This bear market rally is now over 5 weeks old...

[oldno7]

Does it really matter?^^^^^^

Lots to trade.

Might be better to trade what "is" rather than waiting for what "might" be.

But I know you know that but like the troll...

[dougr]

Still waiting with baited breath for that disastrous crash that's supposed to take the DJIA down into the 10,000 - 15,000 range. This bear market rally is now over 5 weeks old...

I don't think it will be a crash to 15-18k. I expect a low volatility bear market for quite some time to 15-18k, a la Japan after their go-go years. Earnings are just terrible. The market is grossly overvalued to earnings now, and it already was in Jan. The bankrutpcies are coming along, Hertz close this week, airlines once PPP money runs dry by Oct., oil cos as we march on, and small biz in non-headline form piling up.

The Dem lockdowns have worked, they crippled the economy. We're sitting around 25% unemployment with no end in sight to its peak. That changed it all, and if Nov ends as I expect, the country is destroyed as we've known it permanently.

S&P500 earnings. If you believe we'll quickly recover and have 2021 earnings of 150 to 168, then no reason the market won't stay at these levels and slowly rise. But if you believe the 2020Q2 earnings of 20 to 25 are to remain for a while, you have annualized earnings of 80 to 100. Which is somewhere between 2010's Dow 10k and 2011/2012's Dow 12k/13k. Pump those figures due to near zero interest rates and you get around 15 to 18k.

94677

[dougr]

Still waiting with baited breath for that disastrous crash that's supposed to take the DJIA down into the 10,000 - 15,000 range. This bear market rally is now over 5 weeks old...

Couple charts to emphasize that bear market rallies have been substantial and lengthy before. Nothing unusual so far. The only thing that'll turn around this fate is a vax or cure. Which I don't see coming before early next year.

1987 I'd classify as a very large correction. There was nothing fundamentally amiss with the US economy. And the market responded accordingly, with the crash's low not being restested. 1929 and 2008 saw underlying fundamental weakness. 1929 saw a 5 month bear rally. I'm sure all seemed steadily recovering for those months, with the unfathomable depression just around the corner. For 2020, how can we possibly call purposely shutting down 1/2 of our business activity not a fundamental weakness? And we'll "grow" to a 1/4 business shutdown with 25% unemployment going to what, 10% or 15%? This blows away the trouble of 2008, imo.

94673
94674
94675

[dougr]

Then on top of all that, you have the election risk. Which I count as 80%+ odds a Dem sweep. Then the return of the high corp taxes, open borders, and regulation up the a%%. That still isn't priced in.

[oldno7]

glad you also look at market history, it is very relevant.

The only crash that we are closely following is the 1929.

We dropped considerably faster with the 2020 than the 1929, thats incredibly worrisome for a bullish outlook.

As you and maybe one other here remember, I based my going into the gold markets off the 1929 scenario and it has and is paying off--significantly.

1929 is on a 90 year cycle, the most important time cycle in the stock market.

All technical analysis leads to a new low.

BUT---the kicker is once again and always will be, Trump.

He is the only President in my lifetime who has known how to actively stimulate the economy and he has.

Man I hope he doesn't screw up this bear market:mrgreen:

In reality--I really hope he does.....

[twotimer]

Then on top of all that, you have the election risk. Which I count as 80%+ odds a Dem sweep. Then the return of the high corp taxes, open borders, and regulation up the a%%. That still isn't priced in.No way, man. I'm 180 degrees away from you on this.

Yeah, things are pretty screwed up right now...but what are the Democrats offering? EVERYTHING about them is a complete disaster. They're actively running cover for a guy that has pictures of him feeling up kids! Like that meme that Oldno posted up with the Joker saying "Things aren't getting worse, they're getting more obvious". Why would those that aren't favorable to Trump want to vote for those that are trying to brow beat them in to submission?

By your reasoning, the country is going to want someone, ANYONE other than Trump. I simply don't believe that...because there's no one there! There's NOTHING there! Things couldn't have been much better before this virus showed up. People aren't going to just toss it into the shitcan and put their trust in the Dems/media oligarchs with crossed fingers.

I was talking to a neighbor last night...she's ultra liberal (lesbian feminist) but she's going to vote for Trump. She's not buying the bullshit...and she may be the most gullible person I've ever met in my life. I couldn't believe it when she said that. This woman has wishful liberal bumper stickers all over the back of her car. Her turning away from the party of her lifetime is telling to me. I'm convinced the Dems have lost people, not gained them.

[Iceaxe]

^^^This^^^

[dougr]

No way, man. I'm 180 degrees away from you on this.

That's better than 360 degrees from me. I take heart in what you're saying and pray to God you're right and I'm dead a%% wrong. Plain and simple.

[rockgremlin]

I think the bear market rally is grinding down now. Lately stocks will rally and eventually fade out, giving up most gains. The momentum has waned significantly.

Another large drop coming soon?

[Iceaxe]

Then on top of all that, you have the election risk. Which I count as 80%+ odds a Dem sweep.

Sorry to hear of your head injury. Hopefully you will regain your senses soon.



:roflol: :roflol: :roflol:

[dougrz]

I was a week or two early on bailing on this bear rally. But some decent losses the last few sessions. Long haul of waste in the market to go, with some sobering talk, and coming to the realization of, this past weekend I noticed.

40% unemployment of households under $40k is staggering. Powell's comment recently. Obviously service workers, but doesn't erase their impact on aggregate demand and economic activity.

[rockgremlin]

I was a week or two early on bailing on this bear rally. But some decent losses the last few sessions. Long haul of waste in the market to go, with some sobering talk, and coming to the realization of, this past weekend I noticed.

40% unemployment of households under $40k is staggering. Powell's comment recently. Obviously service workers, but doesn't erase their impact on aggregate demand and economic activity.


Geez you sound like MSM....you getting a commission? :lol8:

So what's the plan from here? Drop 500 - 1000 points a day every day until DJIA gets under 10,000? Accompanied every day with doom and gloom articles about how "this economic collapse is worse than Pearl Harbor, 911, and the 2008 recession combined"? Pull your money out of the stock market and deposit it under a mattress until 2021?


Yes -- we get it. It's bad. But where's the path out? What does that look like? That's what I want to see. Or is there no plan for recovery? -- we're just gonna hyper-focus on how awful the economy is until Trump is voted out or Jesus comes back - whichever comes first.

[Iceaxe]

Yes -- we get it. It's bad. But where's the path out? What does that look like? That's what I want to see. Or is there no plan for recovery? -- we're just gonna hyper-focus on how awful the economy is until Trump is voted out or Jesus comes back - whichever comes first.

November 4th and everything in the Democratic world can return to normal, because Trump will be gone... it might be January 2021 or 2025, but either way he will finally be gone...

[dougrz]

Yes -- we get it. It's bad. But where's the path out? What does that look like? That's what I want to see. Or is there no plan for recovery? -- we're just gonna hyper-focus on how awful the economy is until Trump is voted out or Jesus comes back - whichever comes first.

I'm not a trader like Old anymore. I'm a longer term trend investor. I have to recognize the governors have done a hell of a job wrecking the economy. Lot of politicians need to be ____ for what they've done. Nevermind the treasonous, unconstitutional way they've done it.

I think we'll bleed off to a more reasonable valuation, like 18k. I dont expect a free fall again. I'd be buying again at that level.

The difference between me and the MSM is they want it to happen and hype the virus risk. I reject the health risk and see the sabotage for what it is. But I still have to acknowledge the damage. They want massive welfare payments to people directly as we see in the new Dem bill (96k/yr for a fam of 4). These people in control would be truly ruinous, to a degree where we'd all be fighting for food in 2 years.

And where to go? It's a difficult Q. Lack of demand leads to deflation. Yet the money supply is inflating. So more money chasing names that will not materially be seeing better earnings. I don't know where to go at these levels. Other than nibbling on particular names that were enticing over the last 2 months. Longer term, finding names with good balance sheets to survive anything worse coming, knowing that aggregate demand will return one day. It's just that index stock returns, imo, will be muted for several years.

Bottom line, I don't expect substantially worse economically than we have now. But the market is overvalued for what we have now, and the Dems will make damn sure it stays bad. Hence my dilemma.

[rockgremlin]

This is hilarious...

Back on May 1st, Elon Musk came out and tweeted that Tesla stock was overvalued and share prices were too high. After he said that, the share price predictably dropped briefly. But ever since that, the price level of when he made that statement has been acting as pretty solid support. Check it out:

94741

:roflol::roflol:

[rockgremlin]

94673
94674
94675


Market seems to be suggesting that this is the first crash in history that hasn't seen a relapse or even a retesting of the lows. This bear market rally is now going on 3 months long, with no signs of slowing down.

So far, the market has yawned at the oil market crash, unprecedented Federal stimulus, 30% unemployment, and civil unrest and rioting in the streets. Gold stocks have been getting spanked recently, and the price of gold took a $40 dive below $1700/oz today.

Tough to see any justification for the market's upward momentum since there really isn't much to support it -- except hopium. And how long will that last? :ne_nau:

[Iceaxe]

Bottom line, I don't expect substantially worse economically than we have now. But the market is overvalued for what we have now, and the Dems will make damn sure it stays bad. Hence my dilemma.


Stock Market set to soar as May jobless rates unexpectedly plunge.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/may-2020-jobs-report

[Iceaxe]

The stock market is on an upward tear this morning... the DOW just blew through 27,000.

It seems the Democrats can't halt the Trump economy.... Not a Scamdemic, not killer Hornets, and not a manufactured race war.... nothing is working for them.

[Iceaxe]

Incredible... the DOW just posted a 1000 point gain... I don't know if the number will hold throughout the day as I expect some profit taking.... but whatever happens posting a 1000 point gain in under 24 hours is amazing.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200605/efa4b21416157b64de8209ad63b8deac.jpg

[Iceaxe]

Iceaxe prediction... the Dow will be back above 28,000 before September.

/Bookmarked


From February 28th when Chicken Little (Dougr) again predicted the sky was falling..... We're almost there already as the DJIA today closed at 27,572. Looks like we might make 28k before the end of June. If Trump is reelected the Dow will close at over 30,000.

Now if we could just get Accadacca to again tell us how Trump was destroying the world economy we would all be rich.

/Bookmarked

[rockgremlin]

From February 28th when Chicken Little (Dougr) again predicted the sky was falling..... We're almost there already as the DJIA today closed at 27,572. Looks like we might make 28k before the end of June. If Trump is reelected the Dow will close at over 30,000.

Now if we could just get Accadacca to again tell us how Trump was destroying the world economy we would all be rich.

/Bookmarked


LOL -- It's pretty remarkable how well the market is doing these days considering the current state of things. It's almost surreal -- like the market doesn't care about all of the dismal news lately. The market yawns at all the social rioting and double-digit unemployment numbers. The economy still isn't up to full steam yet but the market is acting like it is.

One thing's for certain -- this red hot stock market spells trouble for Democrats, and they know it.

We might see a slight drop in coming weeks due to a "second wave," but I don't think it will deter much from the market's determined effort up.

[rockgremlin]

Well... If you were skeptical about the market recently, you weren't alone. Long time market analyst Stanley Druckenmiller was also very outspoken against the market - and recently ate crow publicly for it.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/stanley-druckenmiller-said-hes-been-humbled-by-market-comeback-underestimated-the-fed.html

[dougr]

The crow eating is too early. We are in the warm months, virus activity is lower naturally. We also have Dems and Wall St looking to sabotage the market. Wall St how? Through a run up in valuations now to induce weakness in later months closer to the election. Call me crazy, but the pro China-trade power in this country will stop at nothing to defeat Trump, and a narrative of a weakening market in Oct to undercut Trump's only argument for his re-election is made more possible by the action so far. But besides that, we're simply overvalued historically. Money can be made timing this all, but timing is tough and things turn quickly.

It comes down to this: I think Iceaxe is too dismissive of the power of the left to take this country down. To enslave all of us to government handouts and re-education through media and schooling. Too dismissive of the fact that every single public institution of this country has been corrupted by the left: media, schooling, corporations, sport, science, medicine, etc. There's nothing left, and that has consequences.

[Iceaxe]

It comes down to this: I think Iceaxe is too dismissive of the power of the left to take this country down.

Not going to happen. I think most understand that a small group of highly aggressive emotionally charged activists took over our culture. They forced the entire country to obey their will. It all happened so fast and with such ferocity that virtually no one resisted it.

Conservatives are slow to wake up, get off the couch, and take action. But in the end they always get their shit together, rally, and close ranks. Not to mention when push actually comes to shove one side has all the guns and bullets, while the other side has virtue signaling.

In the end this is going to bite the woke crowd right on the ass... it always does.

[BasinCruiser]

Real question: What is driving these stock market increases and job creations? Are they real and long term, or just temporary fantasy? Is this just trillions of dollars that the government printed flowing into the stock market and jobs created purely off of speculation and dreams from people who have some money, or is there real market demand for the products and services these jobs are providing?

[rockgremlin]

Real question: What is driving these stock market increases and job creations? Are they real and long term, or just temporary fantasy? Is this just trillions of dollars that the government printed flowing into the stock market and jobs created purely off of speculation and dreams from people who have some money, or is there real market demand for the products and services these jobs are providing?


I think both, but to be honest I think speculation has been driving much of the upward movement lately.

I think last Friday's unemployment numbers were 13.5% -- and although that was an improvement over the previous report, 13.5% is still nothing to be proud of and if that news hit the wires any other time it would have caused the market to plummet instead of rocket skyward which is what happened on Friday. The economic news is still not great, but taken in context with what has happened recently with the pandemic and everything it appears that there is cause for optimism going forward.

Also -- there are legit companies and businesses that are in very high demand right now and are raking in cash. Many of these are companies that profit from work-from-home situations like Zoom, Paypal, and Amazon. Consumer discretionary stocks (Kroger, Costco, Home Depot, etc) are doing very well right now, and are profiting from the hysteria as well.

Good rule of thumb: Any reaction within the market is always an overreaction. That said, many stocks were sold off way too low and are now taking back ground. These would be energy stocks (Oil, natural gas) as well as leisure stocks like casinos and restaurants. One example is MGM stock, which normally trades around $30 - 35/share dropped all the way down to under $5 bucks.

[dougrz]

Real question: What is driving these stock market increases and job creations? Are they real and long term, or just temporary fantasy? Is this just trillions of dollars that the government printed flowing into the stock market and jobs created purely off of speculation and dreams from people who have some money, or is there real market demand for the products and services these jobs are providing?

That really is the $64k question. Or since there's been so much printing, the $640k question. Qs plural.

Check NKLA. An electric truck manufacturer saying they're going to best the F-150 in sales. #1 or #2 most purchased stock on Robinhood recently. Up 7x in a few weeks with no earnings for years to come.

What does that say? Brilliant forward thinking, like sticking money into Amazon back in the day when it wasn't going to be profitable for years? Or does a hot Robinhood stock prove the point that the incredibly easy access to stock buying today begets speculation as uninformed, undisciplined money flows in?

I am old school in valuing things. The 99 dotcom bubble saw endless chatter about new paradigms and investing with foresight to not look for earnings and to pay too much else miss the boat.

One thing the printing can't change is a ratio. If new money floating around causes stock prices to rise, then you'd expect that new money would cause rising demand or rising product prices. Which would make basic price to sales or price to earnings ratios still meaningful. We're not seeing these ratios remain at historically stable numbers.

[Iceaxe]

Stocks are talking a huge crap today as fears of a second wave of Coronavirus threatens to sweep the country.

[rockgremlin]

Stocks are talking a huge crap today as fears of a second wave of Coronavirus threatens to sweep the country.


Finally. I've been anticipating this for weeks. A second wave market crash is long overdue.

[dougr]

Stocks are talking a huge crap today as fears of a second wave of Coronavirus threatens to sweep the country.

And fearing the purposeful destructive Dem gov reaction to a potential second wave. We know with certainty we have a 5th column in this country that will stop at nothing to bring Trump down.

[dougr]

Keeping on the dumb money Robinhood trading platform, there was a Chinese social media ticker that skyrocketed recently. Same scenario as NKLA. Watching Robinhood names and making momentum trades just off that is worth exploring.

[dougrz]

Chicken little here, checking in. The Fed's comments yesterday about keeping rates at zero until (or through, I forget) 2022 also has rattled. That's an admission of no fast recovery and continued printing that'll weaken the dollar.

In the first selloff we saw the dollar rally strongly, as safe haven status and a rush to cash does that. If we see both a dollar weakness and market turmoil to the downside, that tells the story of bad fundamentals and too much cash floating around. Not good.

[rockgremlin]

Chicken little here, checking in. The Fed's comments yesterday about keeping rates at zero until (or through, I forget) 2022 also has rattled. That's an admission of no fast recovery and continued printing that'll weaken the dollar.

In the first selloff we saw the dollar rally strongly, as safe haven status and a rush to cash does that. If we see both a dollar weakness and market turmoil to the downside, that tells the story of bad fundamentals and too much cash floating around. Not good.


Expect to see a rush on gold again. This is great news for those of us invested in GDX and Barrick.

Also expect to see a whipsaw snapback tomorrow since today's selloff is way too severe. (Any reaction in the stock market is an overreaction).

[dougrz]

Expect to see a rush on gold again. This is great news for those of us invested in GDX and Barrick.

Also expect to see a whipsaw snapback tomorrow since today's selloff is way too severe. (Any reaction in the stock market is an overreaction).You would think so. I'm trying to get a better understanding of gold production and supply vs monetary demand vs industrial and jewelry demand. And what gold might be correlated to historically. Other currencies and other countries can also become havens. Lot of moving parts. Add in that high gold prices beget more mining activity as marginal plays become profitable. Hence miners might be the best play. They're levered on the gold price anyway.

[Iceaxe]

Expect to see a rush on gold again. This is great news for those of us invested in GDX and Barrick.

Since I design about half the stuff that goes to Barrick Gold Strike I'm good with that. I think they should hurry up and add a couple more crusher and mill buildings, several thousand feet of conveyor's would also be nice.

I'm currently working on a couple of conveyors and magnet stations going out the Round Mountain Gold.

:2thumbs:

[rockgremlin]

Keeping on the dumb money Robinhood trading platform, there was a Chinese social media ticker that skyrocketed recently. Same scenario as NKLA. Watching Robinhood names and making momentum trades just off that is worth exploring.


I just read this comical article about the average RobinHood day trader, and thought of you. Enjoy!


Low-information 'investors' rule the stock market -- at least until they lose every cent

Today 3:42 PM ET (MarketWatch)
By Howard Gold, MarketWatch


Robinhood and day-trading newbies already are getting their comeuppance.


In 1929, the story goes, Joseph P. Kennedy, patriarch of the Kennedy clan, went for a shoeshine not far from his Wall Street office. Kennedy was stunned when the shoeshine man gave stock tips to him, a leading trader. He immediately returned to his office and aggressively short-sold stocks, making a fortune in the Great Crash.

This is probably an apocryphal tale that points to a larger truth: When even shoeshine men are so confident in their bullishness they give stock tips to the pros, it's time to run for the hills.
This week we've seen plenty of signs of this. As the Nasdaq Composite hit all-time highs, briefly closing above 10,000 (nearly double its bubble top from the year 2000), and the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 both came within shouting distance of their February record peaks, day traders and newbies emerged, proclaiming their stock-picking genius.
This testosterone-driven overconfidence -- and research shows men are more reckless investors than women (https://business.rice.edu/wisdom/peer-reviewed-research/investing-behavior-differences-men-and-women) -- has been most pronounced on Robinhood, the commission-free stock trading app preferred by millennials who can make all the trades they want at the tap of their thumbs.

The tale of Robinhood

According to Crunchbase, the Menlo Park, Calif.-based brokerage has raised $1.2 billion altogether. On the strength of three million new customers in the first quarter, it just raised $280 million in a late funding round led by Silicon Valley heavyweight Sequoia Capital. Robinhood has more than 10 million customers (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/09/robinhood-traders-cash-in-on-the-market-comeback-that-billionaire-investors-missed.html) whose average age is 31.It has been having an outsized impact on stock trading. An analyst at Deutsche Bank recently examined Robinhood trading data and found that small investors were behind much of the recent buying (https://nypost.com/2020/06/10/small-investors-with-stimulus-funds-drive-post-coronavirus-surge/) in the stock market, so that what we used to call the "smart money" is "now chasing" the day traders. Talk about the caboose pulling the train!

Gone are the days of COVID-19 lockdowns and fears of bodies piling up in emergency rooms. Long forgotten are the 40 million unemployed Americans, the 40% of businesses that may not reopen and the "long road" to recovery that a gloomy Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell laid out in his news conference Wednesday. And don't even think about the new wave of coronavirus cases and hospitalizations we're seeing in at least a dozen U.S. states. Oh, no, instead the day traders are sampling and remixing those hits of the 1930s, "We're in the Money" and "Happy Days Are Here Again."

And these mini-Masters of the Universe aren't just buying the Apples (AAPL) and Teslas (TSLA) of the world; they're gobbling up stocks of bankrupt companies like Hertz (HTZ) and those whose businesses are in deep trouble, like American Airlines Group (AAL). Both of those stocks and others beaten down badly in the coronavirus bear market have rallied sharply over the past few weeks.

Better than Buffett?

No doubt these very astute people have done deep dives into balance sheets, loan covenants and capital structures the way distressed debt and deep value investors do to make sure they're protected on the downside. Oh, wait. Screw the guardrails. Damn the torpedoes. Traders on Robinhood and other instant-trading platforms are wagering hundreds maybe a few thousand bucks at a time and are beating the pants off the pros.One leading day trader who's particularly proud of himself is Dave Portnoy, the successful founder of Barstool Sports, who thinks his prowess over the last, oh, six weeks or so, has made him better than ... Warren Buffett.

"I'm the new breed. I'm the new generation," he crowed (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/warren-buffett-is-an-idiot-says-investor-who-claims-daytrading-is-the-easiest-game-ive-ever-played-2020-06-09). "There's nobody who can argue that Warren Buffett is better at the stock market than I am right now. I'm better than he is. That's a fact."
This column has recently taken Buffett to task (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dud-stock-picks-bad-industry-bets-vast-underperformance-its-the-end-of-the-warren-buffett-era-2020-05-14) for his performance over the past decade. Three of his recent investments lost at least $7 billion, and he clearly sold airline stocks at the bottom (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-why-warren-buffett-made-a-huge-mistake-selling-his-airline-stocks-2020-05-26). But really, Dave, really? He sounds like he's auditioning to host a revival of "The Apprentice."
The day trading is definitely a sign of the times. As Anthony Denier, CEO of trading platform Webull, told the New York Post: "We're all home. Some people are making bread, and some are saying, 'Hey, how can I make the stock market work for me?' And with the Fed [pumping money] into the markets, they're thinking 'How can I lose?' "
How? Let me count the ways, starting with today, with the Dow down almost 2,000 points. Who knows if this is profit taking or whether we're heading for another leg down in stocks? But some of us remember the 1990s, the days of theglobe.com and "boot your broker" and guys in their basements trading Yahoo stock dozens of times a day. You can "OK boomer" me all you want, but I've seen this movie many times and it never has a happy ending.


Howard R. Gold is a MarketWatch columnist. Follow him on Twitter @howardrgold (https://twitter.com/howardrgold?lang=en).

[dougrz]

I just read this comical article about the average RobinHood day trader, and thought of you. Enjoy!

Great article. Thanks for posting this, rock. Forwarding this to several people.


https://www.marketwatch.com/story/low-information-investors-rule-the-stock-market-at-least-until-they-lose-every-cent-2020-06-11

I might be a dead wrong chicken little on the resiliency of this country and the intelligence of the voters this fall. But the penalty factor is too high for such minimal gains given these extended valuations.

The Portnoy quote: “I’m the new breed. I’m the new generation,” he crowed. “There’s nobody who can argue that Warren Buffett is better at the stock market than I am right now. I’m better than he is. That’s a fact.”

OMG.

[Iceaxe]

Hahaha... I've also seen this movie before. When stocks are skyrocketing it's hard not to lose money, but when things turn ugly you had better watch out :-)

[FaithTerry]

Hmm, thanks for telling me about this. I have not heard about this from my friends. Is there evidence that this broker is a scam? In general, I have never even heard of your trading platform and this is very strange because in three months of trading I managed to try to work on a variety of platforms. By the way, are you trading in stocks of companies? I prefer the forex industry because there is stability. Even now, you can earn big money there despite the instability of the currency market. In addition, it is very important to use platforms such as Investous forex (https://www.investous.com/) because there are no such scams. Try trading on this platform and you will like the result.

[dougrz]

I'm getting a sense we're going to start seeing smart, large money exit stocks. Repeal of the Trump tax cuts and large re-regulation are going to dampen earnings a lot.

[Byron]

I'm getting a sense we're going to start seeing smart, large money exit stocks. Repeal of the Trump tax cuts and large re-regulation are going to dampen earnings a lot.Nah...everybody will keep tryin' to make money. Who knows what will happen when the election is over.

Trump wins, I think it skyrockets. Dems win...well, fear not. There will be winners and losers. The lobbyists will be out in full force greasing palms, and then I reckon we'll get to see just how liberal the oligarchs are. Cuz that's who will be controlling the country.

[dougrz]

Trump wins and it will skyrocket, yes. The market is increasingly pricing in a Dem sweep. Going to be many years of muted returns. Sure there will be winners and losers, but a rising market lifting all boats there will not be. Only smart, nimble investors will do well going forward. Going to be an ugly next many decades.

[rockgremlin]

Trump wins and it will skyrocket, yes. The market is increasingly pricing in a Dem sweep. Going to be many years of muted returns. Sure there will be winners and losers, but a rising market lifting all boats there will not be. Only smart, nimble investors will do well going forward. Going to be an ugly next many decades.


You must a short seller. :lol8:

[Byron]

Blue Star...Blue Star Airlines.

[dougrz]

You must a short seller. [emoji38]8:

Actually no, I've rarely ever shorted.

Biggest thing I am is profoundly sad about the state of the citizenry. When I talk to my young relatives fighting for Trump and trying to save the country from the far left, it's hard to keep a straight face. We're so far gone. Same type of convo I have with all of you. "We can do it, hold off the literal communists for another few years." Meanwhile nearly the entire apparatus of govt, pop culture, media, the biz world, education, sport, and anything that touches young minds is radically anti-American and anti-freedom. Factories of the left. We have 1/3 and probably only 1/4 of families turning out actual Americans anymore.

That underlying belief drives my market thinking to a large extent, obviously.

[Byron]

"We can do it, hold off the literal communists for another few years." Meanwhile nearly the entire apparatus of govt, pop culture, media, the biz world, education, sport, and anything that touches young minds is radically anti-American and anti-freedom. Factories of the left. We have 1/3 and probably only 1/4 of families turning out actual Americans anymore.

Y'know dougrz, the "next election cycle" seems to be all we have anyway...let's just get thru the next four years. Been like that for a long time.

These liberals sure are making a lot of noise. They're standing on top of the biggest hill in town and shouting at the top of their lungs, no doubt about that. But they've made a critical mistake in that they're talking nonsense and have taken it too far. That shit NEVER wins the day. They're showing us their true face and it's ugly as hell.

My opinion is that come November, the liberals in Congress are going to get slaughtered. While they may have votes locked up in the cities, they don't have it in the entire state. Those people that live out there are going to vote for this crap not to come near them. Add to that MOST of the people that live in these cities that are not down with this nonsense, either. These liberal politicians are corrupt liars, backstabbers that talk out both sides of their mouths. Everyone can see that.

Yeah, they make a lot of noise, but I think you give them too much credit.

My concern with this has only been to watch them go completely berserk...and the thing about people going off the rails like that is you just don't know what they might do next. America is not going to let psychotic freaks call the shots.

Just gimme 4 1/2 years, man. Just 4 1/2 years.

[dougrz]

I've been researching some insurance names that were whacked and have not rallied with the market. The big risk overhang is Business Interruption coverage and liabilities.

Dems in several states, and now a Fed level push, are starting to demand retroactive Wuhan virus payouts regardless of contract language. The market is wisely pricing in a progressive legal landscape in the future, where law and contract clauses and the Constitution take a back seat to political forces.

My basic argument has been just that, for investing as a whole in this country. Call me a "sky is falling" idiot, but the progressive future looks clear to me, with its punishment of success and transfer of wealth to the non-working or politically connected.

One story of many on this issue: https://www.insurancebusinessmag.com/us/news/breaking-news/lawyer-warns-legislature-forcing-coronavirus-coverage-could-bankrupt-insurers-219690.aspx

Just ask yourself if such a risk overhang is counterbalanced by a like reward scenario. Carry on.

[Byron]

One story of many on this issue: https://www.insurancebusinessmag.com/us/news/breaking-news/lawyer-warns-legislature-forcing-coronavirus-coverage-could-bankrupt-insurers-219690.aspx

Just ask yourself if such a risk overhang is counterbalanced by a like reward scenario. Carry on.Wouldn't that be something? The great American experiment collapses because it lawyered itself to death.

Those insurance companies ain't going anywhere. It would go all the way to the SC and no matter who is Prez or controlling Congress they'd be bailed out anyway.

[Iceaxe]

Iceaxe prediction... the Dow will be back above 28,000 before September.

/Bookmarked


The above quote is from February 28th just after stock prices fell off a cliff. I'm still predicting we'll be back over 28,000 by September. As of this morning the DJIA is back over 27,000.
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200715/e8a444c6f8a46a382b719be8aed1db9f.jpg

[rockgremlin]

Market shorts are getting crushed right now. The analyst monkeys have been screaming for over a month about how the market is going to crash again... and yet here we are, going up almost every day.

[dougrz]

^ And why I never have and never will short. Though I do play put options on individual stocks from time to time.

Nonetheless, I'm still highly cautious, as the tax and regulatory crush under Dems would eviscerate the market. Warren's business charter and employees with board seats and shareholder ownership changes will fundamentally change the meaning of business in the country to its profound detriment.

Regardless of whether you think the Dems will sweep, at least acknowledge the risk is so far beyond any previous Dem market risk. In the past it has always been a tax risk, which could be lobbied and finagled and sleighted around. Now it's a change to the fundamental meaning of business risk.

[rockgremlin]

Again I disagree. I think you're making a blanket assumption that trading and investing in the stock market is a purely Republican activity. Have you seen the unprecedented amount of new traders and investors in the market these days? There are so many up and coming traders in the market now that seasoned investors have had to change up their strategies to accommodate the increased volume. All this new money and interest in the stock market isn't going to be stifled and sidelined by the Democrats. There's just too much money to be made. It's not in the best interest of the federal government to shut down the market - they benefit too much from it.

[dougrz]

Again I disagree. I think you're making a blanket assumption that trading and investing in the stock market is a purely Republican activity.

Rock, I take your response to be, in essence, "the country won't be damaged too much if Dems sweep."

We just disagree on the level of threat. Profoundly so. And hence why I'm having trouble sleeping and you're not.

[rockgremlin]

Rock, I take your response to be, in essence, "the country won't be damaged too much if Dems sweep."

We just disagree on the level of threat. Profoundly so. And hence why I'm having trouble sleeping and you're not.

Yeah I think you've assessed me correctly, although I don't believe a Dem sweep is going to happen. I can't see Biden winning and then the House remaining Democrat and the Senate flipping over to Democrat...all by this year's end. At worst, I could see Biden eking out a narrow and controversial victory. But for the entire Senate/House to also be Democrat by year's end? I don't think that's a very likely scenario.

[dougrz]

I can't see Biden winning and then the House remaining Democrat and the Senate flipping over to Democrat...all by this year's end.

Dems took 58% of the House vote in 2018. You'd have to expect an awfully big swing toward Trump to reverse that. And by late 2018 the economy was humming and Trump wasn't beaten down by any of the 2020 carnage.

In the Senate, since only 1/3 is up each cycle, it becomes a game of which 1/3. At this point we'll pick up Alabama and lose Maine, Montana, Georgia, Arizona, and Colorado. Net loss of 4 to flip.

[rockgremlin]

At this point we'll pick up Alabama and lose Maine, Montana, Georgia, Arizona, and Colorado. Net loss of 4 to flip.


Arizona, Georgia, and Montana flipping from red to blue? Hmmm I don't know about that. Maine and Colorado are blue for sure though.

[dougrz]

Arizona, Georgia, and Montana flipping from red to blue? Hmmm I don't know about that. Maine and Colorado are blue for sure though.AZ and MT are 50/50 states if you look at their state legislatures. Which, btw, I think is the best way to gauge a state's voting heart.

MT put D-Tester back in over a very good R candidate in 2018 and R-Daines is weak this year

AZ has been trending D. Had 2 R senators in 2016 and previous, flipped one to D-Sinema in 2018, and R-McSally this time is a poor candidate who keeps getting put up in race after race only to lose each time. She was the first Navy fighter pilot or something and seemed a rising star, but the public doesn't embrace her. Sad reality to see this formerly solid R state slip away. I lived there for 6 years.

GA R-Loeffler has been battered by the insider trading allegations and the state was razor close in the 2018 gov contest, almost putting in nutcase Stacey Abrams. Sad reality to see that formerly strong R state slip away.

CO is foregone. I live here now, and 2018 was a violent bloodbath sweep for Dems. Took every state office and commanding majorities in both legislative houses. The CO vote is why I've been telling anyone who'll listen- anger motivates voting more than anything, and Dems are ultra pissed, on an historic level, to drive turnout.

[rockgremlin]

Dear Doug -- so you can sleep at night...

https://www.my12stepstore.com/media/SerenityPrayerWalletCard.jpg

[Byron]

My Ford stock is doing nicely. I bought a considerable amount of it at just under $4. I'll sell it when it hits $10, at least.

That one was a no brainer.

[oldno7]

My Ford stock is doing nicely. I bought a considerable amount of it at just under $4. I'll sell it when it hits $10, at least.

That one was a no brainer.

Ford is gaining--I've bought and sold it several times in the past months.
The one I really still like is VSTO.
It was in the 4's when I mentioned it here. Now above $16 and likely headed over $20.

[rockgremlin]

The one I really still like is VSTO.
It was in the 4's when I mentioned it here. Now above $16 and likely headed over $20.

Yup 100% guarantee. I've bought/sold this a half dozen times over the last 3 months. It's been really, really good to me. Earnings coming up next week will likely look favorable since guns and ammo have been flying off shelves recently due to riots and other unrest.

[oldno7]

VSTO shined again today.

17.01 on close

[dougrz]

Consensus is a 32/33% annualized GDP quarterly decline report coming. Trillions in stimulus debt piled on. Surveys that 60%+ of restaurants will not return to business. Etc.

This is the setup I've anticipated and mentioned in here before. A massive economic contraction, coupled with a vote to go hard left, means permanent Spain/EU economic pain and deep recession for years.

I don't see any evidence to contradict that. Pumping the market has worked admirably, specifically. A chart in an article recently showed it well. If I can find the dang link to post.

Even if a sharp correction down doesn't come, or especially if not, future returns, _from indices_, will necessarily remain muted for many years. You have to be nimble and selective in the new market, imo.

[dougrz]

Added to my NOK holding. That and ERIC I entered 2 or 3 years ago in the play to squelch Huawei in the race to 5G. I had my doubts the West would do the right thing, but I think it's now safe to say Huawei will be defeated. The UK 2 weeks ago banned Huawei equipment going forward. They were the last significant holdout and Boris' govt was defending Huawei a few months ago. Germany hasn't legally done so, but all their major telecoms shut out Huawei in their 5G contracts.

ERIC is 2.5x my entry point and NOK 0.9x. NOK has been winning fewer contracts, but had sufficiently impressive offerings to win the recent Taiwan majors competitions. More potential gain from this point forward, imo, if they can figure out how to make some money on their deals.

Big remaining Q for me is whether to exit all fossil plays entirely. Bad legal and biz framework coming for them. I still hold WES, XOM, RDS, HMLP, and OGZPY. In that order of liquidation.

OGZPY is Russian gas and should be uncorrelated to a domestic fossil crackdown. HMLP is entirely non-US, but a fossil crackdown here will over time drive their feedstock prices higher, and the market will adjust it now accordingly. WES is a Western states pipeline operator that'll get decimated by fracking restrictions. XOM and RDS as supermajors is a harder call, as their strength to buy others and lobby gives them some protection. But to be in a sector under govt assault is dicey at best.

[rockgremlin]

I wouldn't exit all fossil plays entirely. The world still needs oil, and will continue to need oil for a while longer. Natural gas plays are good too as long as the company is sound and not in hot water. For example, Energy Transfer (ET) keeps getting hamstrung by the regulatory agencies and environmentalists. They're the company trying to put a pipeline through the Indian reservations in the Dakotas. Tough sledding.

If you're a coal company your goose is about cooked. The once mighty coal industry is against the ropes, and the referee has just passed 7 in his standing 8 count. The old coal giants (Peabody, ArchCoal, Murray Energy, Consol, etc) are currently or have been in various stages of bankruptcy. Kind of sad, really. The death of a once mighty industry is never pretty.

[oldno7]

My charting suggests we have 1 more new high in the gold/precious metal sector.
At this point, the further up, the risk increases, dramatically.
Those who have no means to see high and lows may get suckered in on a breakout to the upside.

Having said that--I don't see the gold rally as over, not by a long shot but it is in need of a serious pullback(opportunity to re buy)

Time is always on the side of the patient, I await a pullback.

[oldno7]

Sold some VSTO today at 18.25

Now my outlook has turned to GOLD--literally.

I think the 2 best stock plays in the gold market will be NEM and GOLD

With a nice pullback today, I'm looking to buy

I see NEM having the most upside.

Not a buy and hold situation, as none of mine are.

[rockgremlin]

^^^Why would you say that NEM has more upside? It's 2.5X the cost of GOLD, meaning you get about a third of the shares for the same amount of money.

They both respond to the market and behave in very similar ways but NEM is so much more expensive.

[oldno7]

^^^Why would you say that NEM has more upside? It's 2.5X the cost of GOLD, meaning you get about a third of the shares for the same amount of money.

They both respond to the market and behave in very similar ways but NEM is so much more expensive.

Actual cost is meaningless, % of return is the ultimate goal.

NEM has under performed in the sector and imo has a bigger upside.

My first goal is 10%ish.

With any stock making new highs, the upside is a void.

No support/resistance, it's an unknown and prices can get much more overboughter(I made up that word but like it)

[oldno7]

^^^Why would you say that NEM has more upside? It's 2.5X the cost of GOLD, meaning you get about a third of the shares for the same amount of money.

They both respond to the market and behave in very similar ways but NEM is so much more expensive.

One does not CONSISTENTLY make money in the stock market being lazy.

Research--grasshopper---research....:mrgreen:

It's all just math...

[dougrz]

^^^Why would you say that NEM has more upside? It's 2.5X the cost of GOLD, meaning you get about a third of the shares for the same amount of money.

They both respond to the market and behave in very similar ways but NEM is so much more expensive.To echo old, price per share between companies has no meaning.

Hence why we look to metrics like earnings per share or (share) price to sales ratio or many others.

To wit:

Company A earns $1 billion. 1 billion shares exist. Earnings per share is $1.

Company B earns $1 billion. 500 million shares exist. Earnings per share is $2.

All else equal, if A's share price is $25, B's will be $50. B's shares are worth 2x since its earnings per share is 2x.

Share price movement becomes a function of expected earnings changes in the future, more or less. Add on general market drift, political changes, management changes, competition, tax changes, and the general fact the future is hard to predict, and you have a difficult task.

[oldno7]

Sold some VSTO today at 18.25

Now my outlook has turned to GOLD--literally.

I think the 2 best stock plays in the gold market will be NEM and GOLD

With a nice pullback today, I'm looking to buy

I see NEM having the most upside.

Not a buy and hold situation, as none of mine are.

So this is playing out as I anticipated.

Buys were in the $67.5x range.

We are now at new highs with momentum and uncertainty.

I will watch this over the next week with an eye on selling.

Once a new high is established, here, we should correct in the 50% range as historical precedent would suggest.

NEM +3.08%
GOLD +3.59$
Today.

NEM is still lagging but I see it catching up and exceeding the sector by a bit.

I won't detail any more than this so as not to get confusing and appear as chinese.

[rockgremlin]

How 'bout that MVIS eh? :2thumbs:

[Iceaxe]

Gold just crossed the $2,000 mark for the first time in history.

Translation: "The paper money in your pocket is worth less now that it ever has been."

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200804/9966ba28d983abdc969df5165297322d.jpg

[oldno7]

How 'bout that MVIS eh? :2thumbs:

That was a good one as well as SRNE

[oldno7]

Also bought and sold CRON 3 times today.

Looking for it to hit 7.30 tomorrow.

I've got buy orders in for the EXT session.

[oldno7]

I do have a "dog" as well--APHA from 4.92

[oldno7]

Another yuge day in gold is coming.

[oldno7]

VSTO over $22 on earnings

[rockgremlin]

Interesting prediction by E.B. Tucker, who predicted the most recent $2000/oz price level for gold. His take is that we're at the cusp of a monster gold run - up to $2,500+ by the end of the year.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0kmBjoFlSlw