Stocks

[Iceaxe]

So... I've been following the Facebook IPO that is soon to make a couple of billionaires and a couple hundred millionaires out of those currently holding its stock.... and some things just don't make a lot of sence to me about interweb companies...



http://i45.tinypic.com/2ih5yj5.jpg

[Deathcricket]

Hehe I see where you are going, but you are leaving out "perceived value" I think and how it relates to actual value. :lol8:

[Scott Card]

dot com :kboom: all over again??????

[oldno7]

dot com :kboom: all over again??????

My thoughts exactly--bubble vs. II

[Iceaxe]

Facebook still has never turned a profit.... and never will... they have tried hundreds of advertising models and none work.

Yet people are about to pour billions into the company.... this is just crazy....

:crazycobasa:

The only way Facebook can bank coin is to sell the massive amounts of personal data they have collect... which will cause a user revolt... and without users....

This whole deal is doomed to failure....

[agostinone]

dot com :kboom: all over again??????

I was having the same painful flashback. I remember working for HP during the late 90's and wondering how the heck Yahoo and Amazon had bigger market caps than HP did (I think they might have even been bigger than Exon).

[BruteForce]

I think the FB IPO will get huge, then fizzle out as the company struggles to compete head:head with Google in the marketing space. Additionally, FB will realize that it needs to start charging its +900M users and they will wander off to Google+ or one of the other social sites. I wouldn't put my money there -- and consider myself a fairly decent investor (FB will become Yahoo in short time, IMHO).

[Deathcricket]

Facebook still has never turned a profit.... and never will... they have tried hundreds of advertising models and none work.

Yet people are about to pour billions into the company.... this is just crazy....

:crazycobasa:

The only way Facebook can bank coin is to sell the massive amounts of personal data they have collect... which will cause a user revolt... and without users....

This whole deal is doomed to failure....

Facebook has zero competition, I only know a few people that use google circles. It's a good product that everyone uses, even my grandma! I don't see that it needs to turn a huge profit, only remain useful. It's pretty much the best way to arrange a canyoneering trip for me. Set an event, put up the times, invite the people, done. Even simple stuff like me and a couple friends like to chat about movies. So we made a website that links to our facebook profiles and pulls data off our posts. So when I see a movie and talk about it we now have a central deposit to just chat about what movies we liked and didn't like. It's pretty slick and links 100% through facebook comments. Check it out, I think this is the future of Facebook. http://rewatchabilityfactor.com/ Generating content to a website used by 5 people to chat about movies.

Sorry rambling, I just think you are wrong. Of course the first dot com bust is where I made and then lost the most money in my entire life. :lol8:

[Sombeech]

http://main.makeuseoflimited.netdna-cdn.com/tech-fun/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/ingoogle.png

[Iceaxe]

Facebook has zero competition, I only know a few people that use google circles. It's a good product that everyone uses, even my grandma! I don't see that it needs to turn a huge profit, only remain useful.

I never said Facebook wasn't a great product and used by millions.... the problem, at least from a finical viewpoint, is Facebook has never been able to generate enough money to turn a profit.... and to stay in business eventually a company has to be able to turn a profit.

In simplest terms, Facebook has to eventually find a way to turn a profit that doesn't drive away the membership or it is doomed.... This IPO is nothing but rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.

If you want to be the next big dot.com millionaire all you have to do is figure out a way for Facebook to turn a profit. All the advertising schemes they have tried to date have failed.

YMMV :cool2:

[Deathcricket]

Interesting article. The general public seems to agree with you Ice. :2thumbs:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/22/net-us-usa-markets-facebook-idUSBRE84L0PE20120522?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+reuters%2FtopNews+%28News+%2F +US+%2F+Top+News%29


(Reuters) - Facebook's shares fell again on Tuesday as questions mounted over the company's long-term prospects and the top U.S. securities regulator called for a review of the problems surrounding its initial public offering last week.
The comments urging a review, by Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Mary Schapiro, added pressure on the company, its underwriters and the Nasdaq, all of which have taken blame for the stock's troubled opening and subsequent sharp decline.
...
...
...
"Thus, what we see are a series of bad decisions made by Facebook's executives going back many years. The insiders got greedy, too clever by half, in how they used secondary markets. They picked a bad banker and an awful exchange," Ritholtz said.

[rockgremlin]

If you want to be the next big dot.com millionaire all you have to do is figure out a way for Facebook to turn a profit. All the advertising schemes they have tried to date have failed.

YMMV :cool2:


OR




Buy up 1000's of FB shares and sell them short.

[Iceaxe]

FB took anther 9% hit today.... down to $31 and tumbling fast...

The only reason this IPO was so high was it was hyped to high heaven.... fools and their money are soon parted.

From an openning price of $38 to doom in less then one week.... I'm now predicting this stock is going to creater big time as it had no real value to begin with, only perceived value....

[Sombeech]

http://acidcow.com/pics/20120524/acid_pic_04.jpg

[Deathcricket]

FB took anther 9% hit today.... down to $31 and tumbling fast...

The only reason this IPO was so high was it was hyped to high heaven.... fools and their money are soon parted.

From an openning price of $38 to doom in less then one week.... I'm now predicting this stock is going to creater big time as it had no real value to begin with, only perceived value....

Crazy.... The funny thing is I would have totally dumped money into this if I had any laying around. But it's all tied up in real estate and i'm broke as a joke. Thank goodness for that, lol. I woudda lost my shirt! :lol8::lol8:

[Scott Card]

Death to crickets... You just listen to the old skeptics... :nod:

[Iceaxe]

$28.84 and falling like a rock.

[Deathcricket]

Note to self..... Never buy a stock again without consulting Ice. :hail2thechief:

[Iceaxe]

Facebook is the next MySpace. :lol8:

[savanna3313]

This is one of those stocks that you wait to hit single digits and then take some "spare" money and buy a thousand shares to see (speculate) what may happen. I'm surprised with all the people that belong to FB that the marketing hasn't gone well - from the sheer volume of people alone. Ahhh internet companies - I remember them well from the 90s! :facepalm1:

[Scott P]

Stock is going back up.

[Iceaxe]

Stock is going back up.

That didn't last long. $27.72 and still dropping like a rock.

[Rob L]

Did you get an ear nailing with the stocks?

http://www.history.org/Foundation/journal/Spring03/images/stockssm.jpg

Funnily, even with the

[Reedus]

That didn't last long. $27.72 and still dropping like a rock.

Another big hit today. Where does it bottom out?

[Byron]

Another big hit today. Where does it bottom out?At about $4 a share. I might consider buying some then. I avoided the GM IPO as well. Remember the pet rock?

[Scott P]

Another big hit today. Where does it bottom out?


At about $4 a share. I might consider buying some then.

I'm guessing that it may bottom out at ~17-$18. We should take a poll.

Anyway, check out the hype before going public:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/15/us-economy-california-facebook-idUSBRE84E1B720120515

Many internet companies had stocks that initially went down after going public, but then went back up again.

Personally, I doubt that Facebook is going to go bankrupt anytime soon or that it's stock will become worthless any time soon. I would bet that it won't go the way of Myspace for at least several years.

[trackrunner]

the cool kids started selling their FB shares when they found out their parents had bought shares.

[Iceaxe]

the cool kids started selling their FB shares when they found out their parents had bought shares.

^^^THIS^^^

The big problem is there is nothing to prevent FB from becoming the next MySpace. They own no patents that will stop the next cool thing from knocking them off.

[Iceaxe]

Facebook is a great example of how to make a small fortune in the stock market. To do it all you have to do is start with a large fortune and invest in a company that has no tangible assets or real value beyond perceived value....


Facebook $24.10

:popcorn:

[rockgremlin]

FB down 11.5% to $23/share today 7/27.

Bye Bye FB...

[rockgremlin]

I'm gonna call their bottom at $7.50. Anywhere thereabouts or lower I might consider buying.


BTW, given how quickly this stock is in freefall, I would recommend buying up a bunch of put options and or selling the stocks short. These two techniques make you money when a certain stock is tanking.

[accadacca]

Interesting article about Facebook: http://www.forbes.com/sites/nathanvardi/2012/07/27/mark-zuckerbergs-big-facebook-mistake

[Byron]

I find it hard to believe that Facebook is selling at more than twice the price of Ford. BTW, you should buy some of that RIGHT NOW (Ford, that is...).

[Scott P]

Facebook drops below $20 per share:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/08/02/facebook-stock-fb-shares-price_n_1734387.html?utm_hp_ref=business

[Scott P]

Facebook drops below $20 per share:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/08/02/facebook-stock-fb-shares-price_n_1734387.html?utm_hp_ref=business


SAN FRANCISCO, Aug 2 (Reuters) - Shares of Facebook Inc dipped below $20 for the first time on Thursday, pummeled by ongoing doubts about its growth prospects, a string of recent executive departures, and the Aug. 16 expiration of a lockup period on insiders' share sales.
The stock hit a low of $19.82 in heavy trading on Thursday afternoon. It has now lost almost half its value since debuting at $38 in May in the largest IPO ever to emerge from Silicon Valley.

"The sentiment on this thing is so negative," said Topeka Capital Markets analyst Victor Anthony. "I think this thing may continue to tick down until you see some sort of meaningful catalyst which unfortunately may not show until third-quarter earnings."

On Wednesday, Facebook's director of platform partnerships, Ethan Beard, and the director of platform marketing, Katie Mitic, each separately announced plans to leave the company. They represent the latest of several departures -- including that of Facebook's chief technology officer in June -- since the IPO.

Facebook's first tier of lock-up restrictions go away on Aug. 16, when about 271 million shares will be available for trading, with another 243 million shares set to become available for trading between mid-October and mid-November.

But the day most investors are bracing for is Nov. 14, when more than 1.2 billion shares will suddenly be available for trading.

The imminent lock-up expiration also means that Wall Street analysts who participated in the Facebook IPO will once again go quiet, for a 30-day period, potentially creating more uncertainty in a stock that has experienced one of the rockiest market debuts in memory.

Of the 36 Wall Street analysts covering Facebook, 20 belong to firms that were involved in the IPO.

The first American company to debut with a market valuation of more than $100 billion, Facebook has fallen out of favor on Wall Street as investors fret about its slowing revenue growth.

In the second quarter, Facebook reported revenue growth of 32 percent, compared with the more than 100 percent growth it delivered at the same time last year.

Facebook shares were down 4.6 percent at $19.91 on Thursday afternoon, off the earlier low at $19.82. (Reporting by Alexei Oreskovic; Editing by Maureen Bavdek, Tim Dobbyn and Matthew Lewis)

[rockgremlin]

Facebook drops below $20 per share


Facebook is in their own private recession. I believe their current status would say "it's complicated."

[Iceaxe]

$19.05 and still falling.

[Felicia]

So...does anyone actually own any FaceBook stock?

[accadacca]

What gives?

--

Dow surges to record ... and keeps going

21521160&

NEW YORK (AP) - The Dow Jones industrial average closed at an all-time high Tuesday, beating the previous record it set in October 2007, before the financial crisis and Great Recession.

The Dow rose 125.95 points to 14,253.77, an increase of 0.89 percent. The index jumped from the opening bell, climbed as much as 158 points early and peaked at 14,286.

The Dow surpassed its previous record close of 14,164.53 from Oct. 9, 2007.

Tuesday's record represents a remarkable comeback for the stock market. The Dow has more than doubled since falling to a low of 6,547 in March 9, 2009, following the financial crisis and the onset of the Great Recession. Stocks have been helped by stimulus from the Federal Reserve and quarter after quarter of record corporate profits, even as the economic recovery has been slow and unemployment has remained high.

"It's the perfect confluence of events," said Jim Russell, an investment director at US Bank. "This will grab everybody's attention, it will be a front page story and it tends to draw people toward the market, not push them away from it."

The recovery in stocks may even have been quicker had memories of the financial system's near-collapse not been on investors' minds, said Robert Pavlik, chief market strategist at Banyan Partners.

"It's still pretty close to the front of people's brains," he said. "That's one of the reasons that people are hesitant to invest in the stock market."

That could be changing. More money has been flowing into stock mutual funds since the beginning of the year.

Investors who have who stayed out of the market the past four years may be deciding to get off the sidelines, Pavlik said.

The Dow opened higher Tuesday following a surge in markets around the globe. China's markets rose after the government said it would support ambitious growth targets. European markets jumped following a surprisingly strong rise in retail sales across the 17 countries that use the euro. In the U.S., more hopeful news about housing kept the momentum going.

Twenty-seven stocks in the 30-member Dow advanced, with industrial companies leading the gains. Coca-Cola and Merck & Co. fell, while aluminum giant Alcoa was flat.

The Dow's gains Tuesday were led by industrial and technology stocks. Cisco System rose 48 cents, or 2.3 percent, to $21.22 and United Technologies climbed $1.89, or 2.2 percent, to $91.02.

More stable, conservative stocks like utilities and consumer staples logged smaller gains.

All 10 industry groups in the broader Standard & Poor's 500 stock index rose, led by technology companies.

Billionaire Warren Buffet, who has long been bullish on stocks, gave a big endorsement to them on Monday in an interview with CNBC. He said that he still thinks stocks are a good buy, while long-term government bonds are "the dumbest investment."

Stocks are still a good deal because earnings have risen so much, said Darell Krasnoff, Managing Director at Bel Air investment Advisors.

Per-share earnings in 2012 were a third higher than they were in 2007 when the broader S&P 500 was this high.

"People get overly focused on benchmarks," he said. "The fact that it's reached that level is an interesting landmark, but it doesn't say anything about whether the market is over-, or under-valued."

Stocks are also attractive compared with bonds after a five-year rally in the debt market that pushed yields to record lows.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, at 1.90 percent, is lower than the dividend yield of about 2.1 percent on the S&P 500, which measures the ratio of annual dividend payments to stock prices.

Despite the rise in the Dow, the U.S. economy has not fared as well. Unemployment was just 4.7 percent when the Dow last reached a record five and half years ago, versus 7.9 percent today.

But the economy is strengthening in many areas. Housing and auto sales are rising, home prices are recovering, and companies are hiring more. That has helped drive a 9 percent rise in the Dow this year, impressing even skeptics. For all of last year, the index rose 7 percent.

Stocks are also benefiting from the economic stimulus from the Federal Reserve and other global central banks.

Under a program called "quantitative easing," the Fed has bought trillions of dollars of bonds, pushing up their prices and sending their yields lower. That makes stocks more attractive to investors than bonds and keeps interest rates low throughout the economy, encouraging investment and spending.

The U.S. central bank began buying bonds in January 2009 and is still purchasing $85 billion each month in Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities.

The Dow has even managed to climb to a record despite the backdrop of political wrangling in Washington. Automatic government budget cuts took effect Friday after President Barack Obama and Congress failed to reach a budget deal. Economists expect the cuts to hurt U.S. economic growth.

From its March 2009 low to today, the Dow's gain has been led by: American Express, up almost 500 percent from $10.64 to $64.12. Home Depot has jumped almost 300 percent from $18.23 to $70.47. Caterpillar, the maker of the construction and mining equipment, has gained 277 percent, from $23.92 to $90.21. Entertainment giant Walt Disney has surged 262 percent, from $15.59 to $56.48.

Stocks with small gains include Exxon Mobil, which has advanced 38 percent from $64.57 to $89.61, Cisco Systems, up 55 percent from $13.62 to $21.22, and Wal-Mart, which has climbed 55 percent from $47.51 to $73.72.

Hewlett-Packard is the only stock in the index that is lower than it was four years ago, falling 22 percent from $25.53 to $20.37.

Investors received another piece of positive news on the U.S. economy, a report that U.S. service companies grew in February at the fastest pace in a year, thanks to higher sales and more orders. The gain suggests higher taxes have yet to slow consumer spending on services.

Home builder PulteGroup rose 50 cents, or 2.5 percent, to $20.22 following news that home prices rose at the fastest pace since before the housing market collapse. That is a sign that the market is gaining momentum as it nears the spring selling season. Home prices rose 9.7 percent in January compared with the same month a year earlier, the fastest rate of growth recorded since April 2006, according to data released by CoreLogic.

In the five years ending in 2012, investors pulled a net $545 billion from U.S. stock mutual funds, according to data from Investment Company Institute. During the same period, they poured a total of $1 trillion into bond mutual funds.

In January, ICI estimates that investors put a net $18.6 billion into stock funds.

On Tuesday, the Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 15 points, or 1 percent, to 1,539.79. The index is 25 points, or 1.6 percent, from its own record close of 1,565. The Nasdaq composite gained 42 points, or 1.3 percent, to 3,224.13. The index is 1,825 points, or 57 percent, short of its record close of 5,048.62 from March 10, 2000.

Another record was reached, though: The Dow Jones transportation average closed at an all-time high of 6,136.72, up 92 points, or 1.5 percent.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose two basis points to 1.90 percent. Gold rose $2.50, or 0.2 percent, to $1,574.90 an ounce and the price of oil climbed 70 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $90.82 a barrel.

[Byron]

The U.S. central bank began buying bonds in January 2009 and is still purchasing $85 billion each month in Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities.

There's your answer. Also, the mortgage crisis didn't wipe out the life savings of millions of people that kept their cool and rode it out...they also have been saving cash for years...waiting for buying opportunities. Some, like me, actually bought MORE stock when it hit bottom.

This is a little buying frenzy right now...the herd mentality. Personally, I'm a bit leery of this. If the economy was humming along, unemployment below 6% and a government that wasn't so tax happy then I'd certainly be encouraged by the market rising like this...and having the ability to sustain that growth.

How will this all play out? They can't keep buying up bonds forever, even Bernanke said so today...he said they'll keep it up until the UR gets below 6%...he figures at least a year. We'll see about that.

I heard today that day trading is very popular these days, and you can really make some money, but the research involved would be a full time job...not something you want to go into flying by the seat of your pants!

Man, it must suck to be at retirement age RIGHT NOW...these poor people don't know if they're coming or going. For my sake, I hope to God we're not going through this crap 18 years from now.

[hank moon]

63976




New Yorker 11/26/12 p. 43

[Rob L]

The financial institutions and the Government and the press create a self-fulfilling "boom-or-bust" situation.

Stock value increases, so the government wail about it. The press catch on; people buy stocks and the stock market goes up and round we go again.

The reverse is also very true; just replace the words "buy" with "sell" and "up" with "down".

All too often we talk ourselves in to a recession.

Break one link in the chain, and we'll have a stable economy.

[Iceaxe]

The stock market has been very good to me the past three month's, that is all....

Tap'n on my Galaxy G3

[cchoc]

Man, it must suck to be at retirement age RIGHT NOW...these poor people don't know if they're coming or going. For my sake, I hope to God we're not going through this crap 18 years from now.

Actually, it doesn't suck at all. :lol8: I retired 10 years ago when I was 55 and have been loving every minute of it.

[accadacca]

Stock market highs won't benefit Americans:


The stock market had its biggest sell-off in five weeks Wednesday, (http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2013/04/03/stocks-wednesday-4-3/2048643/) thanks to more evidence of meager job growth. The official March jobs data come Friday morning (http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf) as stocks are just below all-time highs.

Don't confuse the record high stock market earlier this week as proof the U.S. economy has healed from the Great Recession. Instead, for many Americans, household budgets remain under significant pressure, nest eggs remain shattered and job security is tenuous.

There was a time when half of American households made more than $52,000 per year (http://www.census.gov/prod/2009pubs/acsbr08-2.pdf), the unemployment rate was about 4.5%, (http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000) we were paying an average of $2.76 per gallon (http://lmi.idaho.gov/Portals/13/Regions/North%20Central/2012/Articles/Rising%20Gas%20Prices%20Especially%20Tough%20for%2 0Rural%20Areas.pdf) for gasoline and the stock market was hitting record highs (http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2013/03/05/stocks-tuesday-3-5/1963995/). That's not today. Except for the stock market. But are you better off now versus 2007 when the Standard &Poor's 500 last traded at these levels?

Compared with the fall of 2007, median household incomes have dropped 4% (http://indianapublicmedia.org/news/indianas-median-income-increases-census-data-shows-36399/). Home prices are down 16%. And gas is well over $3.50 a gallon (http://fuelgaugereport.aaa.com/?redirectto=http://fuelgaugereport.opisnet.com/index.asp). While a new strength for the stock market is worth celebrating, it changes little for most households.

Slow recovery

Sure, America and Americans are showing signs of healing from the deep financial wounds of the Great Recession. Home prices are climbing again (http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2013/02/26/case-shiller-home-price-index-december/1948217/). Unemployment (http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2013/03/29/feb-state-unemployment-rates/2034439/) is dropping. Even U.S. manufacturing (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-01/ism-index-of-u-s-manufacturing-increased-to-51-5-in-september.html) is enjoying a boomlet after a decades of decline. But the real economy is not reflected on Wall Street. After all, it is a market of stocks. And with corporate profits at record levels, who wouldn't want to own a small slice of that pie?

The majority of Americans, that's who.

While the statistic varies slightly from source to source, most surveys suggest roughly half (http://www.gallup.com/poll/147206/stock-market-investments-lowest-1999.aspx) of households have a financial interest in the stock market. Those that do don't have much invested. The Economic Policy Institute finds a third of "small investors" really are small. Very small. They own less than $10,000 (http://stateofworkingamerica.org/subjects/wealth/?reader) in stocks. Though that might be big money to them, it's chump change on Wall Street.
This rising stock market tide is not raising all boats because most Americans aren't more than ankle-deep, if that.

Even so, the halo effect of record high stock prices can't be denied. It's much better living in an economy with an upward sloping stock chart than the cliff dive and subsequent financial devastation that happened between September 2008 and March 2009 (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/2007-09-bear-market-now-totally-erased-2012-04-04?link=home_carousel). (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/2007-09-bear-market-now-totally-erased-2012-04-04?link=home_carousel) Household net worth now totals $66 trillion (http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/current/z1.pdf), driven by the twin recoveries in the real estate and stock markets. Both of those rebounds have been staged with cheap money courtesy of the tally keeper of Americans' net worth: theFederal Reserve (http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/opinion/editorials/2010-11-01-editorial01_ST1_N.htm).

Lower interest rates

The unprecedented action by the central bank to drive down the cost of cash with lower interest rates has driven up stock prices. Though the virtue of the effort (and its yet-to-be-seen consequences) will be studied for decades, it has succeeded. Mortgage rates are dirt cheap (http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2013/02/07/mortgage-rates-unchanged/1898601/), helping re-inflate housing prices. Companies' bottom lines (http://money.cnn.com/2012/12/03/news/economy/record-corporate-profits/index.html) have ballooned partly because of cheaper borrowing costs. And even the federal government itself has saved hundreds of billions of dollars thanks to low interest rates.

Critics argue that the money created by the Federal Reserve's strategy is phony. But the stock gains partially driven by the effort aren't. It's too bad more Americans aren't directly profiting.

Tom Hudson is the former co-anchor of Nightly Business Report on public television.

In addition to its own editorials, USA TODAY publishes diverse opinions from outside writers, including our Board of Contributors. (http://www.usatoday.com/news/opinion/USA-TODAY-board-of-contributors.htm)

Source: http://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2013/04/03/stock-market-highs-wont-benefit-americans-column/2051019/

[accadacca]

S&P 500 hits new all-time closing high


NEW YORK -- The Standard & Poor's 500 index closed at a new all-time high Monday as investors were buoyed by positive economic reports.

The benchmark stock index topped its April 11 closing high of 1593.37 in afternoon trading, erasing a brief downturn that had shaved roughly 3% off the large-company stock index.

It later retreated but bounced a smidgen back into record territory in the last moments of the trading day. The new closing high: 1593.61, a gain of 11.37 on the day for an increase of 0.7%.

The yield on the bellwether 10-year Treasury note fell to 1.65% Monday, the lowest this year, before rebounding modestly to 1.67% later in the day. The previous low yield was 1.66% Friday, according to Tradeweb.

Bond yields typically fall when traders think the economy is weakening and inflation isn't a danger. Also weighing on Treasury yields: The Federal Reserve's program of buying long-term bonds to keep interest rates, particularly mortgage rates, low

Investors were in a buying mood after a better-than-expected start to the first-quarter earnings season and fresh signs that the U.S. housing recovery remains intact.

The government reported that personal consumption expenditures rose 0.2% (http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2013/04/29/personal-income-consumer-spending-march/2120301/) in March and the National Association of Realtors said pending contracts to buy homes (http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2013/04/29/pending-home-sales-march/2120635/) last month were at their highest level in three years.

The Dow Jones industrial average (up 106 points) and Nasdaq composite gained 0.7% and 0.85%, respectively.

Stock price gains continue to be driven by the Federal Reserve's "easy money" policy and a lack of investment alternatives, as bond yields remain at historic lows and commodity prices suffered a major correction in recent weeks.

Gold prices rose 1.1% to about $1,470 per ounce but are still well below the recent peak of $1,803 an ounce hit in late 2012.

On the earnings front, nearly seven out of 10, or 69%, of the 274 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported first-quarter earnings have topped expectations, vs. the long-term average of 62%, according to Thomson Reuters.

Earnings growth for the quarter is trending at a 3.9% rate, up from 1.5% on April 1. Still, Wall Street is uneasy with just 43% of companies topping revenue forecasts, which suggests sales are slowing.

One major Wall Street bull says the market's pause the past few weeks is a sign that the corrective action in the market suggests it is more about it marking time after its sharp run-up, rather than a major price drop.

"We believe investors should stay the course and use near-term pullbacks to add to their positions," says Craig Johnson, a technical analyst at Piper Jaffray.

Johnson sees the S&P 500 hitting 1,700 by the end of 2013, or more than 6% higher than current levels. He also predicts the broad market gauge will hit 2,000 in 2014.

In contrast, Wall Street's most cautious investment strategist, Gina Martin Adams of Wells Fargo Securities, reiterated today that she is sticking to her year-end target of 1,390 for the S&P 500, which equates to a drop of nearly 13% from current levels.

Part of Adams' hesitancy to commit to stocks has to do with her belief that full-year earnings will come in softer than analysts expect. She is expecting full-year profit growth of 1.5% for the S&P 500, which is far less than the current consensus of a 7.9% gain.

"The earnings outlook continues to dim," she told clients in a report Monday.

On Friday, the Dow closed up 0.1%, to 14,712.55. The S&P 500 finished down 0.2% to 1,582.24. And the tech-laden Nasdaq composite index ended down 0.3% to 3,279.26.
FRIDAY: Stocks end mixed; more earnings to come (http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2013/04/26/stocks-friday-4-26/2114933/)

Asian stock markets mostly rose on Monday as investors awaited the European Central Bank's interest rate decision later this week. The U.S. government said Friday that the economy expanded at a 2.5% annual rate in the first quarter, falling short of expectations of 3% growth.

Japan's Nikkei 225 index lost 0.3% to 13, 884.13.

European shares saw gains. the U.K.'s FTSE 100 index was up 0.19%; Germany's DAX 30 was up 0.45%; and France's CAC 40 was up more than 1%.

Benchmark oil for June delivery was up $1.21 to $94.21 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract fell 64 cents to $93 a barrel on Friday.

Contributing: The Associated Press

Source: http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2013/04/29/stocks-monday-4-29/2120183/

[Scott P]

Just noticed that the DOW is over 15K.:mrgreen:

[Byron]

Yeah, it's pretty nice seeing the mutual funds swelling up nicely...but it does me no good right now. I still have 17 years to go before I start tapping into it.

At least it's good for all the folks drawing on it right now...I'm expecting a correction, though. If it's only a thousand point drop, and the trend continues generally upward...

I think the panic selling we saw a few years ago is unlikely to happen again...at least for a long while. I think a lot of people realized they screwed up, dumping stock. I actually went on a buying spree. Kinda funny, on one hand I'm hopeful for the market to rise, but if it were to tank again, I'll be happy to take advantage of it. Buy low, sell high...

[accadacca]

I keep getting these crazy alerts from USA Today. Two days in a row! What does it mean? Somebody is making a killing... :popcorn:

Monday: Dow, S&P 500 close at new record highs

Tuesday: Dow, S&P 500, Google close at record highs

[Iceaxe]

Two days in a row! What does it mean? Somebody is making a killing... :popcorn:

I'm up about 20k over the past two weeks.... but that's on paper.... what matters is over the long haul....



Tap'n on my Galaxy G3

[erial]

I need to sell some stock. Don't need to buy. Don't need investment advice. Just need to cash in some stock certificates as part of settling an estate. Do I seek a local broker, do I go with someone like Ameritrade, or even with an online outfit. I've never had an occasion to deal with a broker, but I would think based on what needs to be done that I could just go to a "discount" broker and have it get done. Any cautions I should be aware of?

[Iceaxe]

Stocks.... Dropping like a rock..... the big increase from a couple month's ago is gone...

Tap'n on my Galaxy G3

[Scott P]

It doesn't seem to have dropped that much.

[Glenn]

I don't know what you're talkin'.

Two months ago (April 12): DJIA close: 14,865.06
Today (June 13) as of 11:53 EDT: 15,052.40

Unless you're day trading and missed the 500-point bump in the end of May, you're doing okay.


Stocks.... Dropping like a rock..... the big increase from a couple month's ago is gone...

Tap'n on my Galaxy G3

[SynthiAdams]

nice post!

[Scott P]

^^^^^^^^^^^
I smell a spammer.

[JONBOYLEMON]

Just sold stock for the first time in a very long time. Thank you Wells Fargo, and First Security before that!!!! You have been very nice to me with you nice dividend and great run up.

[JONBOYLEMON]

Morgan Stanley, you on the other hand suck!!!!!!

[Byron]

Yeah...I'm thinking about unloading all that Ford stock I bought 4 years ago. If I would have know then where it would be now, I would have invested my life savings in it and I'd be a millionaire many times over. I bought a nice chunk, but chicken out when it came to buying real big...too bad for me, eh? Hindsight, man.

[Scott P]

Hindsight, man.

Yep.

Facebook is now close to $70 a share. Maybe we should have bought some while we were all laughing at it dropping below $20.

[Deathcricket]

http://techcrunch.com/2014/07/24/facebook-is-now-worth-190-billion/?utm_campaign=fb&ncid=fb

Facebook Is Now Worth $190 Billion
(http://techcrunch.com/2014/07/24/googles-chromecast-turns-one-boasts-over-400m-casts-to-date/)
http://tctechcrunch2011.files.wordpress.com/2014/07/fb-earnings.png?w=738 Facebook is worth more than Amazon. Following yesterday’s earnings report (http://techcrunch.com/2014/07/23/facebook-q2-2014-earnings/), Facebook shares hit an all-time high (http://techcrunch.com/2014/07/23/facebook-stock-all-time-high/) in after-hours trading at $75. Price has been very stable this morning as well, confirming yesterday’s pop. Shares opened at $75.96 a share, then set a new record at $76.74. Now, shares are trading at $75.13.
In other words, Facebook’s market capitalization is now around $190 billion, which is above Amazon’s market capitalization of $165 billion.
With $2.91 billion in revenue and earnings of $0.42 per share, the company beat the analysts’ expectations. When you see Facebook’s earnings chart, it seems like there is no end in sight. Facebook is a great example of a tech company that has performed very well since going public.
It could have bigger consequences on the stock market. Investors could become bullish on other tech stocks due to Facebook’s good performance.




Facebook is a much different company than it was when it went public in May 2012 (http://techcrunch.com/tag/facebook-ipo/). At the time, most of its users were browsing the social network on their laptops, and the company’s ad offering wasn’t as effective as it could be. Now, most users go to Facebook on their phones, and the mobile ads are performing very well.
But if you look back even further, nobody would have thought five years ago that Facebook would be worth more than Amazon, around half of Google and Microsoft. One last number, Facebook is now worth more than eight times Twitter.

[Scott P]

NASDAQ Graph dating back to when this thread was started (when it went public) through yesterday:

75443

[Iceaxe]

There is no commonsense reason for Facebook to be valued where it is.....

Do some research on the Dutch Tulip Bulb Bubble of 1637 (http://www.damninteresting.com/the-dutch-tulip-bubble-of-1637/) and you will understand what is happening with Facebook.

Now if I could just remember the password to my AOL account,

[Byron]

Perhaps it would be smart to buy it now and sell it in two years to double the investment...Hmmm, I'll have to flip a coin and think about it.

[Scott P]

Up to $77 a share.

[BruteForce]

I bought Panasonic a few weeks ago, since they're going to be the primary supplier for Tesla. Not climbing real fast, but its climbing.

[Scott P]

FB is nearing $81 a share. Just for fun, any guesses as to when it will level off or drop?

[rockgremlin]

FB is leveling off now

[rockgremlin]

FB down almost 6% today.


If you want a good stock to go long on, check out Barrick Gold (ABX). It won't earn you much in the short term, but it's long upside potential is huge. They have a small dividend, and they're trading at crazy lows right now. The next time the economy gets a little shaky Barrick stock will rocket to the moon again.

[Iceaxe]

Here is the problem with the current Facebook stock price.

Facebook is valued at $200 billion.

To give you an idea of how out of whack that is...

Ford valued at $65 billion
General Motors valued at $170 billion
General Electric valued at $147 billion
LG Electronics valued at $10 billion
Samsung valued at $186 billion
Denver Broncos valued at $1 billion
Dallas Cowboys valued at $3 billion
Entire NFL valued at $45 billion

:popcorn:

[rockgremlin]

FB is positioned for a disastrous collapse IMO. Right now it's positioned on an unsubstantive bubble that will implode horrifically when it implodes. Not a question of if...

[accadacca]

http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/OG-AD918_NASDAQ_G_20150302162109.png

The Nasdaq climbed above the 5000-point level for the first time in almost 15 years on Monday, a milestone that hasn't been achieved since the '90s economic boom.

The rebound underscores the renewed ascendancy of U.S. financial markets following the twin crashes of 2000 and 2008 as well as the repeated U.S. debt-ceiling standoffs in recent years.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-stock-futures-little-changed-ahead-of-data-1425302537?mod=e2fb

[Scott P]

If you want a good stock to go long on, check out Barrick Gold (ABX). It won't earn you much in the short term, but it's long upside potential is huge. They have a small dividend, and they're trading at crazy lows right now. The next time the economy gets a little shaky Barrick stock will rocket to the moon again.

Unless they go bankrupt first, which seems possible:

78139

According to Macro-axis, there's about a 50% chance of the company going bankrupt within two years. It is either a good time to buy (on the assumption that the economy tanks or begins to tank within two years) or a bad time (assuming the company goes bankrupt).

http://www.macroaxis.com/invest/ratio/ABX--Probability-Of-Bankruptcy

I'm tempted to buy, but not enough to risk retirement on. If they do survive the next few years, I agree that prices will skyrocket eventually.

[Iceaxe]

If you want a good stock to go long on, check out Barrick Gold (ABX)

This is great advise, I just dumped a ton of money into Barrick. Unlike investing in Facebook, Barrick has actual assets that are worth about $40 per share. Most of those assets are in land which never loses value over the long haul as its a finite commodity. So anytime Barrick drops below $40 a share it's a great value.


Not to mention Barrick is world wide company so if gold prices drop they just temporarly close some of their less profitable mines.


In addition Barrick just dumped about $1 BILLION dollars into their new TCM Leach facility and have a back log of three years worth of ore stockpiled to run through the faciclity soon as it's on-line in the very near future. Also the technology used in the TCM project can and will be sold to other mines in the near future.


How do I know all this you ask? Because I did a lot of the design work on the new TCM Leach facility at Barrick Goldstrike.


I'll never understand why someone would invest in Facebook and it's dreams, smoke and mirrors when they can invest is a hard tangible asset like Barrick, GM, Ford, GE.

Your Mileage May Vary.

[rockgremlin]

Yeah I've visited several of Barrick's mines. They really have their $hit together. Vast reserves that are constantly growing, and the technology to recover it. It's pretty impressive.

If they ever get into a position where they're seriously staring down Bankruptcy, Newmont or someone else would sweep in and buy them out.

[Iceaxe]

I was just looking and Barrick currently has something like $1.7 trillion dollars in provable and probable gold, which doesn't even consider the other high dollar mineral reserves.

[Scott P]

Facebook stock just hit $100 a share.

Barrick Gold is down to $7.46 a share.

Still, if Barrick is able to ride the low prices before bankruptcy, it could be a good investment move.

[Scott P]

FB is nearing $110 per share. I should have bought it when it was $25 a share

[Scott P]

Barrick Gold just shut down their Salt Lake City office. It shut down its Perth Australia office as well. It's credit rating is now rated as "junk status". Macro Access is now predicting a 52% chance of bankruptcy.

Any predictions on whether they will go bankrupt or not?

[dougr]

Macroaxis has Apple at a 10% chance of bk. The z-score algorithm isn't foolproof.

Gold is still over 1k an ounce, and that's 5x of when Barrick was operating a decade+ ago. In 2001, gold was around $250 and ABX was trading double today.

That said, the industry hasn't reached capitulation yet. That will happen when a major goes under, and other players pick up the pieces.

Good article: http://seekingalpha.com/article/3713376-reassessing-barrick-gold

The revision history is showing analyst flow maybe starting to turn:

82388

[Iceaxe]

It's starting to look like 2008 all over again,

Stocks are going...

Down,,,

Down,,,

Down,,,

Down,,,

Down,,,

Down,,,

Down,,,

Down,,,

Down,,,

Down,,,

:cry1:

[rockgremlin]

Yeah metals are on the downward spiral as well. Copper has been below 2 bucks for a little while now.

Freakin' China...

I'm tempted to buy, but I doubt the market has bottomed yet.

[dougr]

Is oil going to $20? Will Freeport-McMoran common shareholders be wiped out? Will Shell cut its dividend? Questions which were unthinkable 2 or 3 years ago.

[accadacca]

82673

[accadacca]

82674

[rockgremlin]

It appears the stock market is mirroring the movements of the oil market. I love how cheap gas is at the pump, but I don't like what it's doing to my stock portfolio...

[Iceaxe]

Cheap oil torpedo's the energy industry, and their stocks tumble. Of course China's economy going down the toilet isn't helping anything.

[Sandstone Addiction]

My 401k is diversified over a range of investments, but I do have a large portion split between these two mutual funds. I'm not one to buy and sell on a whim as I've had both of these for years, but I think I've had enough of the Fairholme Fund and time to make a change.

The Neuberger Berman fund has served me well over many years.

Does anyone have have a favorite fund that I can do some research on?



82676



82677

[Iceaxe]

Stocks hit an all time high of over 19,000 on the DJIA today.

THANKS TRUMP!

[oldno7]

My charts show 11-30 as a key date, I'm guessing a top.
Once again, I'll bail a day early from long positions, if it goes that way.

[Rob L]

...
Does anyone have have a favorite fund that I can do some research on?




MRO
http://www.melroseplc.net/

[wahahazx1]

It appears the stock market is not bad

[oldno7]

yea, Trump has screwed up the stock market, big time....

All it does is goes up.

I'm currently on the sidelines.

But I'll be honest, this trump market is uuuggee:haha:

[Iceaxe]

I've made more in stocks this past month then I have working all year. I'm so excited about that I just want to grab some pussy.

[Rob L]

No pussy here, but I can offer you a nice pair of Tits!



















https://www.bto.org/sites/default/files/styles/1000_wide_350_high/public/shared_images/science/latest_research/2013-06/2013-06-24-bluti-010-e-two-fat-feeder-john-harding.jpg?itok=GfDXSb43

[accadacca]

BREAKING: The Dow Jones Industrial Average just hit 20,000 for the first time ever. http://cnb.cx/2jwVWpH

[rockgremlin]

It's starting to look like 2008 all over again,

Stocks are going...

Down,,,

Down,,,

Down,,,

Down,,,

Down,,,

Down,,,

Down,,,

Down,,,

Down,,,

Down,,,

:cry1:

What a difference a year (and a new president) makes!

[Scott P]

FB stock should pass $140 in a few days.

[accadacca]

Stocks pare gains as White House fails to provide specifics on repatriation tax

[Iceaxe]

Stocks pare gains as White House fails to provide specifics on repatriation tax

:roflol: :roflol: :roflol:

You should apply to be the mouthpiece of the left, you are almost as comical as Maxine Waters (D-CA). Do you also want to impeach Trump for what he is doing to the economy?

:roflol: :roflol: :roflol:

Stocks are near record highs and have been trending up all week, today they lost 00.1% and the dumbass left jumps all over it.

18,259 - DJIA on November 8, 2016
20,975 - DJIA on April 26, 2017

That's a 13% increase if you need help with your math.

Thank you, I'll hang up now and listen to your answer on the air.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Pc72t3Inws

[Scott P]

It's still too early to say what is going to happen through the Trump presidency.

Here is the current score card for the last five presidents. Right now stocks are doing well under Trump, especially when you interpolated the timeline. The Dow has stagnated for though, but it's the long term trends that matter.

The stagnation won't last and stocks will probably continue be on a rising trend. Although it would be nice, I do doubt however, that the annual percent change is going to stay over 30% throughout the presidency. Time will tell.

86913

I will periodically (maybe once a week?) update the spreadsheet and post it here.

[Scott P]

Current score card:

87044

[Scott P]

Current scorecard:

87071

[accadacca]

The U.S. stock market is on pace to have its worst daily decline in 8 months.

[Scott P]

The U.S. stock market is on pace to have its worst daily decline in 8 months.

That just means it's time to buy. It will go back up.

[Iceaxe]

Yup, good day to buy.

[Scott P]

Current scorecard:

87120

As said, it's still too early to tell, but my own prediction is that at the end of the Trump presidency, the percentage gains will be closer to that under the Obama Administration than that under the Clinton Administration. That's not bad though. Stocks actually did well under the Obama Administration.

[Scott P]

Current scorecard:

87140

[Glenn]

I like the scorecard idea; makes for interesting dinner table discussion. I note a few things.
1) You should include Nasdaq and S&P in your performance measures. The Dow isn't a realistic measure of market valuation on its own. The Nasdaq has been outperforming both the Dow and S&P for the past year.
2) Considering the hit that the Dow took during the Great Recession (Dec 2007 - Jun 2009), I'm surprised at how well the performance was under Obama.
3) I'd be curious what the performance is for the same number of days for each administration - by term.

[Scott P]

I like the scorecard idea; makes for interesting dinner table discussion. I note a few things.
1) You should include Nasdaq and S&P in your performance measures. The Dow isn't a realistic measure of market valuation on its own. The Nasdaq has been outperforming both the Dow and S&P for the past year.
2) Considering the hit that the Dow took during the Great Recession (Dec 2007 - Jun 2009), I'm surprised at how well the performance was under Obama.
3) I'd be curious what the performance is for the same number of days for each administration - by term.

There is a lot one could do here, such as take the score card much farther back as well, but I was just going to make something simple.

[Iceaxe]

2) Considering the hit that the Dow took during the Great Recession (Dec 2007 - Jun 2009), I'm surprised at how well the performance was under Obama.


The DJIA actually took the big plunge under Bush 2, which makes Obama's numbers look much better than they really were as Obama's numbers benefitted greatly from the bounce at the bottom. Much of Obama's time was spent just regaining lost ground.

In contrast Trumps numbers are almost entirely new ground and new high's, which I don't believe has ever been seen before, at least since WWII.

Obama is also getting credit for the 1,900 point jump the DJIA made between November 3 2016 and January 20, 2017, which was a direct result of Trump being elected. These 1,900 points should be credited to Trump which would really make his numbers look much better than they already are.

DJIA October 2017 - 14,093
DJIA November 3, 2016 - 17,930
DJIA January 2o, 2017 - 19,799

Obama was a wet blanket to the stock market any way you want to slice it, but he wasn't helped any by the mess Bush 2 gave him.

:popcorn:

[Scott P]

In contrast Trumps numbers are almost entirely new ground and new high's, which I don't believe has ever been seen before, at least since WWII.

Not so. Look at stocks under the Clinton era.

Obviously, there is a lot more to the stock market then simply who the President is though.


Obama was a wet blanket to the stock market any way you want to slice it, but he wasn't helped any by the mess Bush 2 gave him.

I'd have to disagree. Stocks did well under Obama, any way that it is sliced. Also, it must be remembered that other recessions took much longer to recover from.

I'm still betting that stock performance under Trump will end up closer to that under Obama than that under Clinton.

If you want to make a friendly wager, I'm game.:2thumbs:

[Scott P]

Current scorecard:

87158

[Iceaxe]

21,206.....

I'm on my way to being a very rich man.

Thanks Trump [emoji631]

#MAGA

[Scott P]

Current scorecard:

87209

[Scott P]

DJIA October 2017 - 14,093
DJIA November 3, 2016 - 17,930
DJIA January 2o, 2017 - 19,799


I just noticed this going through the numbers, but where are you getting that the Dow was 14,093 in October 2017? The Dow hasn't been that low since March 1 2013. In October 2017 Dow was always above 18,000.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Anyway, I'm leaving on a trip Tuesday and will be pretty busy until then, so I'll update the score card early:

87226

[Iceaxe]

21,529 [emoji631]

22,000 before years end.

#MAGA

[Scott P]

21,529

22,000 before years end.

Unless something unexpected happens, it will probably higher than that. 21,529 to 22,000 is only a 2.18% increase.

I'm guessing by year's end it will be above 23,000.

[Iceaxe]

If the DJIA is above 23,000 at years end Trump will be hailed by many as one of the greatest presidents ever as he will be partially responsible for creating a huge army of newly minted millionaires.... just sayin'


https://cdn-business.discourse.org/uploads/youthdebates/original/2X/0/0fe0a1d9938195f5515bcdc45b4bd3a79e0ad5f2.jpg

[Scott P]

Current scorecard:

87325

[Scott P]

Current:

87357

[Scott P]

http://www.bogley.com/forum/images/metro/blue/misc/quote_icon.png Originally Posted by Iceaxe http://www.bogley.com/forum/images/metro/blue/buttons/viewpost-right.png (http://www.bogley.com/forum/showthread.php?p=587003#post587003)21,529

22,000 before years end.


Unless something unexpected happens, it will probably higher than that. 21,529 to 22,000 is only a 2.18% increase.

I'm guessing by year's end it will be above 23,000.

I'm still betting that I will be right.

Anyway, current scorecard.

87445

[Scott P]

I had to make a new spreadsheet since I'm out of town, but here is the current score:

87520

[Scott P]

I was reading though this thread again. It started with a discussion about FB stock and what a foolish investment it was . FB stock is now around $170 a share. You all blew that one. :bootyshake: I blew it too because I didn't buy any FB stock either. We all could have been rich! Well, maybe not, but at least richer.

If you invested $100,000 in FB stock on August 31 2012, less than five years ago, today it would be worth approximately:

http://s2.quickmeme.com/img/76/762195e1666497074ede151e0cbeb39738a411d967572cbbe2 4b90cf8db6011f.jpg

That's a pretty good return in less than five year's time.

[Scott P]

I haven't updated this in a while, so hear it is:

87613

[Iceaxe]

I'll just leave this here....https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170929/9d2b90d97b6a7e594f73e38b2b6390ab.jpg

[Brian in SLC]

Where's that cliff? We headed for a correction? I needs to know!

Being a 24+ year former employee with a 401k, the Orbital ATK sale to Nothrup gave me a huge (HUGE) bump. Went from 110 to 132. Yee to the haw. Has sustained for a couple of weeks...geez, now if we only had a big bump in missile contracts...what would cause that...hmmm....

Can't wait to check "things" as the month's end compiles on Monday.

Sell sell sell?

I need a crystal ball!

[oldno7]

Don't we all.

I bought more AMZN for just under $950 share(seems crazy)I'm seriously looking(hoping) at doubling my investment, over the next few years

After next week, I will liquidate a lot of positions to cash.

Then wait for a firesale.

[oldno7]

AMZN up over $1000

Market has to correct, soon.

BTW--I bought an ETF called HMLSF a few months ago--it is starting to move.(Rock--buy in)

Still own a few funds/stocks but put a lot in cash last week.

Ones moved to cash are up 20.625%

[oldno7]

This market is insane.

[Scott P]

http://www.bogley.com/forum/images/metro/blue/misc/quote_icon.png Originally Posted by Iceaxehttp://www.bogley.com/forum/images/metro/blue/buttons/viewpost-right.png (http://www.bogley.com/forum/showthread.php?p=587003#post587003)21,529

22,000 before years end.



http://www.bogley.com/forum/images/metro/blue/misc/quote_icon.png Originally Posted by Scott P http://www.bogley.com/forum/images/metro/blue/buttons/viewpost-right.png (http://www.bogley.com/forum/showthread.php?p=587004#post587004)
Unless something unexpected happens, it will probably higher than that. 21,529 to 22,000 is only a 2.18% increase.

I'm guessing by year's end it will be above 23,000.

I told you so.

[rockgremlin]

BTW--I bought an ETF called HMLSF a few months ago--it is starting to move.(Rock--buy in)




Is this Marijuana ETF the one you're referring to? :toker:

87969

[oldno7]

Yup, thats it.

[oldno7]

lots going on in this area, imo.

[rockgremlin]

lots going on in this area, imo.

Makes sense that it would with all of the motions to legalize throughout the U.S. It's got massive upside.

[oldno7]

AMZN up $75 in after hours trading on reports of revenue rising 34%

Whooo-hooo

[oldno7]

up over 10% in one day.

[oldno7]

Just sold my AMZN.
waiting for my fill price.

[oldno7]

Another ETF I own that I think will jump quite a bit higher---LIT

[oldno7]

Look who the top holders of LIT are:

Ford
Tesla
Samsung
Panasonic
LG

[oldno7]

Just sold my marijuana ETF
+14%

Out shopping for new funds/stocks

[oldno7]

I still have 1 losing proposition.
It is EGLCX
It is based of oil and oil delivery(pipelines)
Owned for 7 months and been losing.

Everything else I've made nice gains on.

I'm a market timer and it seems the 7-8th is a time point, not a price point, in conjunction or it would be a very good reversal signal.
Likely a small pullback.

Market is SO overdue a correction it isn't funny, this Trump rally Trump's all:2thumbs:

[Scott P]

Current score card:

88111

[Sombeech]

Current score card:

88111

So, Trump's DOW span of 10 months as president is being compared to his predecessors that had 8 years?

[Iceaxe]

So, Trump's DOW span of 10 months as president is being compared to his predecessors that had 8 years?Not to mention Trumps is all new gains (creating wealth) with new record setting highs, most of Obama's gains are just trying to regain lost ground (recovering lost wealth lost under Bush 2). I've tried to explain this to Scott before but he is tone deaf. Scott keeps comparing apple's to oranges with his score card.

Anyone with even a moderate understanding of Wallstreet knows Obama was a boat anchor with regards to the US economy.

Here is Obama in full dumbass, as it appears Trump does have a magic wand and it is called a telephone.

https://youtu.be/CKpso3vhZtw

[Scott P]

So, Trump's DOW span of 10 months as president is being compared to his predecessors that had 8 years?

I was planning on updating it regularly, including all the way through this presidency and hopefully the next. The spreadsheet is a percent change per year, regardless of how long the president has been in office. This is more fair than some online sites that compare one term presidents the same as two term presidents.


I've tried to explain this to Scott before but he is tone deaf. Scott keeps comparing apple's to oranges with his score card.

It's not that I didn't hear you, but there is no way to create a spreadsheet covering all factors. The parameters used were just the easiest and simplest way to do it. I already know that there are too many factors not to make an apples to oranges comparison. It was you that said the DOW is the only poll that matters.

If you have a better way to make a spreadsheet dividing the stock market out per presidency then why not do it and post yours?

[Iceaxe]

I have an awesome method of telling what's actually happening in the stock market. I just look at the total value of my stock portfolio.

I can tell you this, a lot of millionaire have been created under Trumps stock market run.

[Scott P]

I have an awesome method of telling what's actually happening in the stock market. I just look at the total value of my stock portfolio.

OK, post that graph/spreadsheet. Personally, I thought that you would like my spreadsheet.

PS, I have always said that stocks will do well under Trump and have done well under Trump.

I'm not sure what exactly you're trying to disagree with me here. The spreadsheet shows that stocks have done well under Trump. It will be interesting to see if the do as well as the Clinton presidency. Right now they aren't that far behind, but there are still several years to go.

I think just about everyone wants the stock market to do well, regardless of which president is in power at the time. I have never had that problem with Trump.

I guess the only disagreement at all we might have on this subject is that regaining ground isn't any easier than continuing a record streak. This has usually been the case historically (100 year chart):

88114

Obviously stocks have done well under Trump and will almost surely end better than under Obama. I never claimed otherwise.

Too bad we can't get health care more affordable though. It would have been nice to invest this year's $50,375.80 spent on medical expenses into the stock market instead.

It's stressful, but on the plus side, my hours have been able to somewhat compensate for the medical losses. If the drive time policy wasn't changed, I would have had more hours.

88113

I'd be pissed if I was still on salary though.

[Iceaxe]

Too bad we can't get health care more affordable though.

NEVER GOING TO HAPPEN!

And let me explain why in very simple terms.... EVERYONE wants to pay less than their actual medical costs. The only way to make the system work is for those that don't need medical to pay for those that do.

Even you... as I'm guessing your actual medical cost this year are much more than the $50k you actually paid.

So the only way to make healthcare affordable is to make some people pay for shit they don't want/need.

In other words you want to make your problem my problem, and I don't want your problems as I already have my own problems... now do ya get it?

[Scott P]

Even you... as I'm guessing your actual medical cost this year are much more than the $50k you actually paid.

Yes, this is true; that's why it is called indurance. My wife's heart surgery was more than $200,000. There are probably three years where that has been true as well. Those years were 2010, 2011, and 2017.We may(?) have gotten more in 2002 and 2004 as well, since we had kids those years. For all other years though, we paid a lot more into the system than we got out. I have had my own medical insurance and I or my employer has been paying in since age 17 (1991). I would bet that we have paid a lot more in than we have gotten out. Still, having medical insurance is a necessity for most. One medical procedure can bankrupt someone. That's sad when it is something they are born with, even if it isn't yours or my problem.


In other words you want to make your problem my problem, and I don't want your problems as I already have my own problems... now do ya get it?

Yes, I get what you are saying. Medical costs in this country are still higher than anywhere else though and among developed nations, perhaps the most error prone. You have brought up prescription cost in this country vs. others before. I agree.

I don't want free healthcare nor do I want someone else to pay for it; I just want it to be more affordable. Don't you? I haven't asked for handouts ever. Since age 16 I have never been unemployed more than a week or two. I could have applied to get aid for our medical bills, but I did not. People asked me on FB if I wanted to start a Go Fund Me Page for Kim's heart surgery and I said no. We still plan on paying every penny we owe. I want to be a giver, not a taker. If you needed help, I would want to help you. If you need them to be, your problems are my problems because you are my friend.

Here's where we may differ though. I think children should be universally covered by health insurance (and in getting an education). I don't believe in punish kids for being born since they didn't have a choice in the matter. I guess you can call that socialism or liberalism, or whatever. I guess some of my beliefs in this matter could be chalked up to past experiences.

-About half of our total medical expenditures this year were from an incident that happened when I was a child. Somewhere at around age 7-9, I don't remember exactly, I got hit in the face by a snow tube at Sugarhouse Park. My jaw was shattered, but I never went to the doctor. The jaw healed up, but left a bunch of cracks behind that get infected and eat away the bone. A few months ago, and now that I am an adult in my 40's, I was flossing my teeth when one of them came out-with a piece of my jaw still attached. It was a smelly and orange piece of jawbone. Parts of the rest of the jaw were drilled out and four other teeth need to be replaced. Of course, medical insurance doesn't cover this and says that it is dental and of course they also say that having teeth and a jaw is only cosmetic. (That is where $22,500 of the medical expenses).

Is this your problem? No; it is mine. I can tell though though that it does make me wish that I had gone to the doctor when I was a little kid. It would have been a cheap and relatively easy fix. To me it seems preferable to decades of pain and bone rotting away.

Of course a lot of other kids were and are way worse off than we were.

I wouldn't expected it to be free either. Once I was an adult I would be expected to pay into the system, whatever that system may be.

So, no I don't want free health care. I do wish that kids would be covered though since it wasn't their choice to be born.

I do wish however that there was a way to make healthcare more affordable (not free).

Maybe this belongs in the medical thread though.

[Iceaxe]

Don't get me wrong, we are getting a major hose job by part of the medical industry. For example there is no reason a pill should sell for $10 in Canada and $80 in the US for the same pill.

Our entire medical industry needs an overhaul, I don't have the answers, but I know the problem is much bigger than just insurance.

And just be warned, this problem is going to get a lot worse before it gets better. Our legislature's will not fix the problem until it completely implodes.

[Scott P]

Our entire medical industry needs an overhaul, I don't have the answers, but I know the problem is much bigger than just insurance.

Yes, that's why I said health care rather than just insurance.


For example there is no reason a pill should sell for $10 in Canada and $80 in the US for the same pill.

Yes; the same pill exactly, the same exact brand and all. It's not just cheaper in Canada either, but everywhere else outside the US.

Another problem is that we (all of us) have to have expensive doctor appointments (even if your insurance covers much of the costs) to get prescriptions renewed.

[oldno7]

market should drop today.

[rockgremlin]

market should drop today.


As predicted...


88115

[Scott P]

It didn't drop as much as many were predicting, but the day is still early.

[oldno7]

It didn't drop as much as many were predicting, but the day is still early.


The drop I'm looking for is not a single day.

[Scott P]

The drop I'm looking for is not a single day.

True, but the market was/is predicted to drop today specifically. I was referring to those predictions.

[oldno7]

True, but the market was/is predicted to drop today specifically. I was referring to those predictions.

And who made those predictions, before today?
must have missed it.

[Scott P]

And who made those predictions, before today?
must have missed it.

Yesterday there were quite a few of them predicting a drop in the market today. Some sources were from or posted on BTIG, InvestorPlace Market, and Valueline.

This was on Valueline yesterday, which is a good example since it predicted a drop this morning specifically:

In fact, as the session ended, the Dow actually turned positive, gaining nine points as the final bell sounded. The S&P 500 was barely lower, meantime, but the rest of the market finished lower in a dull and somewhat directionless encore to a ho-hum Monday. Now, as we look out to the rest of the week, we see that stocks ended matters in a slight downtrend in Asia in overnight trading. In Europe, meantime, the early action is a tad weaker as well. Also, oil is nominally lower at this hour; and the U.S. equity futures are signaling a flat-to-lower start to the new trading day stateside. - Harvey S. Katz

[oldno7]

Yesterday there were quite a few of them predicting a drop in the market today. Some sources were from or posted on BTIG, InvestorPlace Market, and Valueline.

This was on Valueline yesterday, which is a good example since it predicted a drop this morning specifically:

In fact, as the session ended, the Dow actually turned positive, gaining nine points as the final bell sounded. The S&P 500 was barely lower, meantime, but the rest of the market finished lower in a dull and somewhat directionless encore to a ho-hum Monday. Now, as we look out to the rest of the week, we see that stocks ended matters in a slight downtrend in Asia in overnight trading. In Europe, meantime, the early action is a tad weaker as well. Also, oil is nominally lower at this hour; and the U.S. equity futures are signaling a flat-to-lower start to the new trading day stateside. - Harvey S. Katz

Good golly man--your delusional...

Show me a statement by someone, prior to the fact..

Who said the market will drop on 11-09-17

You love to argue just to see what you type, it's got to be a burden on you to feel a constant need to disprove everyone.:facepalm1:

So come on, should be easy for you to put up "quite a few" predictions..

[oldno7]

and that gobldy gook you posted above sounded like an obama speech, lotso words but says nothing..

[Iceaxe]

and that gobldy gook you posted above sounded like an obama speech, lotso words but says nothing..^^^THIS^^^

[Scott P]

You love to argue just to see what you type, it's got to be a burden on you to feel a constant need to disprove everyone.

I wasn't arguing with anyone. I was just answering the two questions that you asked me. It wasn't meant to be an arguement; I thought you would be interested. What I posted supports your prediction, so why you think that I was trying to disprove it is beyond me.

In fact, I actually thought I was supporting your own prediction of a market drop today as well, but apparently not.


Show me a statement by someone, prior to the fact

I just did. The above quote was posted yesterday evening (I read it then) and one of the ones I was referring to.

I can post more when I get to a computer.

.....are signaling a flat-to-lower start to the new trading day stateside.

I was trying to answer the question that you asked thinking that you'd be interested, but never mind.

[oldno7]

come on--your democrat is showing through--lengthy diatribe--no facts..

You stated--"Yesterday there were quite a few of them predicting a drop in the market today. "

So put up a post, should be easy for you.

[Scott P]

You stated--"Yesterday there were quite a few of them predicting a drop in the market today. "

So put up a post, should be easy for you.

OK, but only to answer your question.

I am now at the computer rather than the phone, so it is easier to post specific examples.

Let's start with the 1st prediction, though made this morning rather than yesterday or prior. Can I use that one?

This morning November 9:

market should drop today (Oldno7)

Here is some of what I was referring to:

November 8 referring to the DOW (Harvey S. Katz/Valueline):

Also, oil is nominally lower at this hour; and the U.S. equity futures are signaling a flat-to-lower start to the new trading day stateside.

November 8 referring to SPX and others (Market Timer):

11/8/17 (Commentary for Wednesday) We had choppy action today in the SPX but the high early Tuesday at 2587 still held. A warning flag from the credit sector (the JNK/TLT ratio) has sold off hard the last five days - that could tip the market into correction. Weakness in the XLU (utility sector) and strength in the TLT may imply that the market is concerned about passing a tax reform bill in Washington. The NYMO ( New York Composite McClellan Oscillator) has been < 0 for several days in a row now - this implies that some kind of correction may have started - perhaps into 11/9-11/10.

Another of yesterday's prediction for SPX:

The SPX made an early high at SPX 2597 on Tuesday before reversing down - we may see a mild decline into the 11/9-11/13 turn window. We are looking for a SPX over 3000 by June 2018.

QQQ Prediction from yesterday:

The stock market is consolidating here and the bank sector may be feeling the pressure from rising credit spreads. We plan to buy QQQ calls on a corrective decline into the 11/9-11/13 turn window.

Overall Market Prediction from Daily JVD Market Timer:

Turning Point Day

The turn windows for this week are 11/6 and 11/9-10.

November 7 (Put Dividends):

When I say “stock market prediction” I do not necessarily mean predicting where it ends up. Just trying to assess the direction of the market. Yesterday, I called the market to go up based on all of my technical indicators pointing up. Today the picture is not as clear as it was yesterday…..

The last one is admittedly a stretch, but I'm not sure what we're "arguing" about since the above seems to support your own statement.

As for me, I only wish I could predict the stock market (as does everyone else).

If you really think any of the above or what I said earlier was meant to be an argument, then there really is no point in discussing this further. Although I am much more a long term investor than into day trading, I do find the daily predictions interesting and it is interesting to see when they are right or wrong.

[Brian in SLC]

If you really think any of the above or what I said earlier was meant to be an argument, then there really is no point in discussing this further. Although I am much more a long term investor than day trading, I do find the daily predictions interesting and it is interesting to see when they are right or wrong.

I wouldn't sweat it, Scott. Most likely just an opportunity to bag on Barry.

Thanks for your contributions.

[oldno7]

more gobledy gook....

heres from a post I made on 11-6-17

"I'm a market timer and it seems the 7-8th is a time point, not a price point, in conjunction or it would be a very good reversal signal.
Likely a small pullback."

And what happened on the 7th & 8th?

Not a bag on barry(thats too easy)

Pointing out scott is wanting confrontation, even when he's clueless.(a true liberal)

[Scott P]

There was no confrontation. I simply said that on the 8th there were some people predicting a drop in that market on the 9th. Then you asked me a question and I answered it. There was nothing more to it. That is all I said and there was no confrontation. In fact not only did I not say that you were wrong, the entire time I was actually trying to agree with your predictions.

Despite your constant attacks, I have taken it with stride, but I'm getting sick of it and so is everyone else. You are just being a dick for the sake of it, even though I have never tried to be confrontational with you personally.

Go to hell Kirt. I will answer none of your post from now on.

[oldno7]

ahh-liberals..

when you lose an argument go to name calling.

and I say nothing here I wouldn't say to your face.

[Brian in SLC]

I'd QFT that...but...

Ouch, Scott.

Does seem like he's constantly pickin' on you for no good reason. Shane does it too. Some internet bully thing I guess. Or a constant need to be right.

There's very little to no moderation here, which, can be good, and, can be bad. But, sometimes it allows folks to get away with saying things that are pretty disrespectful. When you leave (and the others that already have), it'll be just a bunch of mean spirited folks with the same opinions. If that's what folks want, so be it.

I enjoy spirited, intelligent debate. When it strays too far past that...well...just as easy to move on.

Maybe that time is now, Scott.

Cheers.

[Brian in SLC]

ahh-liberals..

when you lose an argument go to name calling.

and I say nothing here I wouldn't say to your face.

There it is.

And, Scott, you didn't lose an argument.

[Iceaxe]

There's very little to no moderation here, which, can be good, and, can be bad.

Whenever we try moderating the group it just ends up offending even more people... so.... now we just sit back and enjoy the show with everyone else. This forum is actually very tame compared to most I visit.

[rockgremlin]

I'd QFT that...but...

Ouch, Scott.

Does seem like he's constantly pickin' on you for no good reason. Shane does it too. Some internet bully thing I guess. Or a constant need to be right.

There's very little to no moderation here, which, can be good, and, can be bad. But, sometimes it allows folks to get away with saying things that are pretty disrespectful. When you leave (and the others that already have), it'll be just a bunch of mean spirited folks with the same opinions. If that's what folks want, so be it.

I enjoy spirited, intelligent debate. When it strays too far past that...well...just as easy to move on.

Maybe that time is now, Scott.

Cheers.

Yeah...why all of the hate on Scott? Seems unjustified and spiteful.

IMO Scott was just trying to be sincere and got mercilessly attacked for it.

Hang in there Scott. Most people here still hold you in high regard, self included.

[Iceaxe]

http://www.v7n.com/forums/attachments/forum-lobby/15979d1330672069-fighting-internet-381316_316038965075389_150555121623775_1299563_581 276772_n.jpg

[twotimer]

Go to hell Kirt. I will answer none of your post from now on.I think it's Kurt...

Anyway, I was canyoneering with some friends a few weeks ago and one of them is a Bogley member who hasn't posted in a long while. I asked him why.

He said "It's just the same dudes bitching at each other". Said it's become uninteresting because of it.

[Scott P]

Anyway, I was canyoneering with some friends a few weeks ago and one of them is a Bogley member who hasn't posted in a long while. I asked him why.

He said "It's just the same dudes bitching at each other". Said it's become uninteresting because of it.

Your friend is right.

[rockgremlin]

^^^ Well, the only time I ever bitch on this site is when I go to the fantasy football thread to bitch about Iceass and his lucky daughter. Aside from that, I would consider myself pretty benign.

And I too would consider this forum on the tame side. I'm familiar with a few forums where topics devolve into flame wars on a nearly daily basis.

[Iceaxe]

:popcorn:

Ya know.... not to state the obvious, but you don't have to click on every thread.

There are a lot of threads I stay out of or avoid because I know if I enter the thread I'll just end up making some little bitch cry...

Iceaxe - your tour guide to everything that is wrong with the Internets.

[DiscGo]

Who would have thought that a thread about "Stocks" could get so heated. I love Bogley but I hate that this sort of thing happens. My advice is that if there is a user who really frustrates you,

88127

[rockgremlin]

^^^ Was just gonna suggest this. It's great advice.

[Iceaxe]

Who would have thought that a thread about "Stocks" could get so heated. I love Bogley but I hate that this sort of thing happens. My advice is that if there is a user who really frustrates you,

88127If I did this I wouldn't have any posts to read.

ROFLMAO

[oldno7]

TWMJF

I think this is a good company.

I just bought 1000 shares, today.

Is it ok to talk about actual stock trading in this thread?

[rockgremlin]

Is it ok to talk about actual stock trading in this thread?


I think it's encouraged, actually

[oldno7]

TWMJF

I think this is a good company.

I just bought 1000 shares, today.

Is it ok to talk about actual stock trading in this thread?


Up 8.73% from yesterdays close.

Sounds like somes yearly %

[oldno7]

Now up 10%

[Iceaxe]

The DJIA just blew past 24,000 today like it was standing still and 25,000 is looking possible by years end.

Everyone with a retirement plan has to be loving life today.

#MAGA
#ThanksTrump

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20171130/a18399c32c3d7a8b6dd20597eb900cc0.jpg

[oldno7]

TWMJF

I think this is a good company.

I just bought 1000 shares, today.


Up 20%

Almost embarassing compared to crypto.

[oldno7]

Up 55% on TWMJF

[oldno7]

Up 55% on TWMJF, since 11-16

[Iceaxe]

Trump Rally - stocks put 2017 in the record books.

http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2017/12/29/trump-rally-stocks-put-2017-in-record-books.html

[Iceaxe]

Liberal logic....

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20171231/c55d6ca613aa8d4ce99f205c60006159.jpg

[oldno7]

Liberal logic....



Thats an oxymoron

[Iceaxe]

The Dow Jones Industrial Average just blew past 25,000, hitting an all-time high. It has been just 23 days since it hit 24,000, registering the shortest span ever between 1,000 point milestones.

#ThanksTrump #MAGA

[devo_stevo]

The Dow Jones Industrial Average just blew past 25,000, hitting an all-time high. It has been just 23 days since it hit 24,000, registering the shortest span ever between 1,000 point milestones.

#ThanksTrump #MAGAAnd 7 days later, it's past 25,500. It is interesting to see the headlines for the different articles that are on MSN.com right next to the stock ticker. If you didn't see the numbers, you'd think that the sky was falling and the middle class is still being crushed by evil corporate types.

The amount of media bias and just outright ignorance with regards to Trump and the economy is obscene. No matter how much positive news is out there regarding the economy, they only report on small portions of it that confirm their bias and bitterness. I'm not saying that there are no bad parts of the economy. There is always some part of it that's not running as well as others, but right now, there are so many good things happening that you really have to look for the negative stuff. They are so out of touch with reality. It's sad, really.

[Iceaxe]

but right now, there are so many good things happening that you really have to look for the negative stuff. They are so out of touch with reality. It's sad, really.

It honestly hurts me that our media has fallen to such a low depth. It's sad when you can often get better and more accurate news from Facebook and Twitter than you can from some main stream media outlets.... so sad....

[devo_stevo]

^^Very true. They are so blinded by their distaste of all things Trump that all they can do is tell you that Wal-Mart is paying everyone bonuses and giving them raises, but THEY ARE ALSO CLOSING A BUNCH OF SAM'S CLUB STORES!!!!!!!!!!! What have those Sam's Club employees done to deserve that??? What a terrible company they are. Oh and the only reason that they are doing this is not because of the tax cuts. It's because they are forced to by Target and Amazon.com. It's not because they have some extra money that they didn't before and instead of padding their bottom line, they are going to give it to the people that make it all possible. That's just downright un-corporate of them.

Sorry that got a little long. It's just really annoying to listen to them blather on about all this and just dismiss it all as a total fluke and how the middle class is suffering so much now because they aren't being paid $15/hour at McDonalds. yet, so we have to keep going on and on.

[oldno7]

Took out all my holdings that were based on the dow/s&p/nasdaq.
My timing shows 1-16-17 as a timing date.(I'm guessing short term high)
I would say another pullback/buying time.

Currently re buying MJ and lots of it. (TWMJF)Canopy group.
Back in at 25.755

[oldno7]

as per above:
Canada is online to legalize MJ in July this year, for recreational use.

[Iceaxe]

Stocks are on a terror... records are being shattered almost daily. Enjoy it while it lasts.

:-)

[oldno7]

MJ is on a roll

Hey Rock. interested in cobalt mines?
I just bought shares into one in Canada.

cheap right now--.94(BRVVF)

Sounds like Africa might be getting some competition to their child labor mines.

Food for thought

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/business/batteries/congo-cobalt-mining-for-lithium-ion-battery/

[oldno7]

I now have shares in lithium/cobalt/mj and lots of other fine things:mrgreen:

[Iceaxe]

'Melt-Up’ Rally Propels Dow Above 26000 as Fear Turns to Greed

Just another day in Trump World ® where the stock market smashes all previous records. This time it took only 8 days for the DJIA to soar through another 1,000 point milestone surpassing 26,000. Do people realize how much wealth was created in just over a weeks time? It's just crazy.

A serious question, (@Brian in SLC, @DIRK (http://www.bogley.com/forum/member.php?u=29324) Hammergate) and others... do the liberal's still have all their cash in the bank awaiting the predicted market crash if Trump is elected President? Or have you at least jumped on this portion of the Trump Train?

https://www.wsj.com/articles/melt-up-rally-propels-dow-above-26000-as-fear-turns-to-greed-1516222815


https://mikemstahl.files.wordpress.com/2016/03/atrai.jpg?w=300&h=169

[rockgremlin]

'Melt-Up’ Rally Propels Dow Above 26000 as Fear Turns to Greed

Just another day in Trump World ® where the stock market smashes all previous records. This time it took only 8 days for the DJIA to soar through another 1,000 point milestone surpassing 26,000. Do people realize how much wealth was created in just over a weeks time? It's just crazy.

A serious question, (@Brian in SLC, @DIRK (http://www.bogley.com/forum/member.php?u=29324) Hammergate) and others... do the liberal's still have all their cash in the bank awaiting the predicted market crash if Trump is elected President? Or have you at least jumped on this portion of the Trump Train?

https://www.wsj.com/articles/melt-up-rally-propels-dow-above-26000-as-fear-turns-to-greed-1516222815


https://mikemstahl.files.wordpress.com/2016/03/atrai.jpg?w=300&h=169


I too wonder about this. For all of the bitching and whining and snowflake melting....is the Trump hating uber-left just storing all of their cash under the mattress? Or are they secretly relishing all of these stock market gains? Tough to argue against a guy that pads your pocketbook.

[Iceaxe]

Since the day Trump was elected President the stock market has hit a new all time high 96 times.

#MAGA

[oldno7]

Since the day Trump was elected President the stock market has hit a new all time high 96 times.

#MAGA

And will continue to do so.
Any pullbacks that exceed 2-3% would cause a tiny bit of concern.
There is no 10-20% correction in the near future.
Current earnings are going very well, there has been no developing bubble, this rally is real.
IMO-dow 30,000 by end 2018
You could lose every penny you ever earned by listening to the above.
Buy bitcoin, its safe:haha:, I would guess it hits 3-4000 long before 20,000

[Sandstone Addiction]

Just checked my 401k and it's up 24.54% in the last 12 months. :2thumbs:

[Brian in SLC]

I have two 401k's...

22% and 16%.

Given that they're not all stock based...pretty good.

[oldno7]

,.,.

[Iceaxe]

I have two 401k's...

22% and 16%.

Given that they're not all stock based...pretty good.

22% is a reasonable return on a diversified retirement plan over the past year, this is about average and I'd be happy with that. 16% is not very good and I would not be happy. YMMV... Do you have any control over how these are invested?

[Brian in SLC]

22% is a reasonable return on a diversified retirement plan over the past year, this is about average and I'd be happy with that. 16% is not very good and I would not be happy. YMMV... Do you have any control over how these are invested?

I do...but...

I'm kinda at the point where I don't want to survive another down turn.

The 16% is one that is much smaller and not as funded so to speak. So, smaller amount and tied to a bit more stock that gets matched but hasn't been as strong a performer (but still strong enough).

Blended fund. Not as perky. Much lower risk. Got some bonds in there...

I see S&P 500 fund got near 22% last year...

Hmmm. Easy to feed at the trough...

So...what's good? Large cap, mid cap, international? Who has that crystal ball?

Some amazing numbers from the last year...to be sure...cha ching!

[Iceaxe]

I do...but...

I'm kinda at the point where I don't want to survive another down turn.

The 16% is one that is much smaller and not as funded so to speak. So, smaller amount and tied to a bit more stock that gets matched but hasn't been as strong a performer (but still strong enough).

Blended fund. Not as perky. Much lower risk. Got some bonds in there...

I see S&P 500 fund got near 22% last year...

Hmmm. Easy to feed at the trough...

So...what's good? Large cap, mid cap, international? Who has that crystal ball?

Some amazing numbers from the last year...to be sure...cha ching!


It's a tough call, the problem is 2 years at 25% is better than 5 years at 10%, so belly up to the trough while the eating is good.

I have 3 different retirement accounts spread out among three different money managers, spread out into everything you can possibly think of. They averaged a little better then 25% last year. None of my accounts are high risk and are in what is considered moderate risk, about a 3 on the 1 to 5 scale.

I'm in the same boat as you in that I'm getting close enough to retirement I can see the finish line and don't want to get tripped up now.

[Brian in SLC]

It's a tough call, the problem is 2 years at 25% is better than 5 years at 10%, so belly up to the trough while the eating is good.

I have 3 different retirement accounts spread out among three different money managers, spread out into everything you can possibly think of. They averaged a little better then 25% last year. None of my accounts are high risk and are in what is considered moderate risk, about a 3 on the 1 to 5 scale.

I'm in the same boat as you in that I'm getting close enough to retirement I can see the finish line and don't want to get tripped up now.

Yeah...I got hammered hard a couple of times by being greedy. Sure, I recovered...but...I don't want to have to again.

I probably need a money manager....there's certainly funds I could get in that might not be as much risk as I think they are. Geez, how long is this bubble going to go before it pops??

I'm kinda fortunate as well that I have a couple of pensions too. Kids these days (you know...kids these days) don't get much in the way of pensions offered up any more. I'll be happy to eat that extra can of Alpo in retirement...ha ha.

And....remember...social security isn't an entitlement!

Anyhow...money manager...got a recommendation? One time deal or % as you go? How's that work?

My 401k accounts are at Fidelity...and...I could certainly use their resources...but...thoughts?

[Iceaxe]

Yeah...I got hammered hard a couple of times by being greedy. Sure, I recovered...but...I don't want to have to again.

I probably need a money manager....there's certainly funds I could get in that might not be as much risk as I think they are. Geez, how long is this bubble going to go before it pops??

I'm kinda fortunate as well that I have a couple of pensions too. Kids these days (you know...kids these days) don't get much in the way of pensions offered up any more. I'll be happy to eat that extra can of Alpo in retirement...ha ha.

And....remember...social security isn't an entitlement!

Anyhow...money manager...got a recommendation? One time deal or % as you go? How's that work?

My 401k accounts are at Fidelity...and...I could certainly use their resources...but...thoughts?Check your private messages.

[oldno7]

lost about $3500 in MJ, yesterday.

Gained back $1800 so far today.

I could see the drop coming but failed to act.

[oldno7]

got $2600 back now

[basilone0331]

You are just paying some asshole to do something you can manage on your own. But if you do get a manager make sure they serve as a fiduciary.

[Iceaxe]

You are just paying some asshole to do something you can manage on your own. But if you do get a manager make sure they serve as a fiduciary.I managed my own stocks for years and the outside asshole makes me a lot more money than I made on my own. I just don't have the hundreds of hours to devote to it that he does, I'm to busy making money at my real job. YMMV

[basilone0331]

I managed my own stocks for years and the outside asshole makes me a lot more money than I made on my own. I just don't have the hundreds of hours to devote to it that he does, I'm to busy making money at my real job. YMMV

I tried the stock picking game and clearly shouldn't be doing that for a living. I only do index funds now. I've never had an individual financial planner, but within my various employer's 401k plans none of the actively managed ones consistently outperform their reference index funds.

[Scott P]

I tried the stock picking game and clearly shouldn't be doing that for a living. I only do index funds now. I've never had an individual financial planner, but within my various employer's 401k plans none of the actively managed ones consistently outperform their reference index funds.

I have index funds as well, but that's really pushing the definition of "managing stocks on your own".

[oldno7]

haven't got an updated draft of Presidential comparisons, lately, update would be :2thumbs:

[Scott P]

haven't got an updated draft of Presidential comparisons, lately, update would be :2thumbs:

This one? People were complaining about it, so I stopped posting.

88751

[basilone0331]

I have index funds as well, but that's really pushing the definition of "managing stocks on your own".

Exactly my point, I am not one to be picking (guessing) which stocks will be the winners, so I am happy with the S&P 500 results. I just keep a portion as bonds as I get older my willingness to take a big loss with the markets decreases. I generally follow the Bogle method.

[accadacca]

So what the heck happened?

[oldno7]

So what the heck happened?

A buying opportunity.

This was driven by the release of the memo, Wall street hates uncertainty.

Wouldn't be surprised to see a new high by the end of Feb.

[oldno7]

Was also driven by the wage increase report.

Higher wages help create inflation, which devalues bonds, bonds started selling off and stocks followed.

And here we all thought a wage increase was a good thing.

It is for us working folks but bad for the fed which tries to control inflation.

20 trillion has to catch up to us eventually, as well.

[Brian in SLC]

A buying opportunity.

This was driven by the release of the memo, Wall street hates uncertainty.

Wouldn't be surprised to see a new high by the end of Feb.

Had nothing to do with release of "the memo".

Jobs, rise in wages, inflation and a scheduled increase in inflation.

Several big companies bought back huge amounts of their own stock.

I think one of the reasons the market "corrected" (tanked...ugh). is that I moved my portfolio around. Its happened before. My timing is brilliant.

Ha ha.

Yeah, lets hope for steady growth for the rest of the month.

I need to quit watching and worrying day-to-day I suppose.

Where's my darn crystal ball...

[Iceaxe]

Brian singlehandedly tanked the entire US stock market.... LOL

Somehow it gets overlooked that stocks are up 28% for the year, even after the correction. I don't think this correction surprised anyone.

[Scott P]

Another way to look at it is that the current DOW value would have been the record high on January 10 2018. Three and a half weeks ago, this would have been considered a record on the high end.

It's a really minor correction in the grand scheme of things.

[oldno7]

Had nothing to do with release of "the memo".


.
You should certainly have others manage your money.

I forecast prior to the day that it could easily be a -500pt day, it was 665.

This was an easy call and great opportunity to buy discounted stocks and/or funds.

Just because you didn't see it ahead of time and made bad decisions, doesn't mean it's not true.

[Iceaxe]

You should certainly have others manage your money.

I forecast prior to the day that it could easily be a -500pt day, it was 665.

This was an easy call and great opportunity to buy discounted stocks and/or funds.

Just because you didn't see it ahead of time and made bad decisions, doesn't mean it's not true.I'm with Brian, the memo had a negotiable impact on stocks. It was the wage report that caused the chaos. There was nothing new in the memo that most didn't already suspect.

[Brian in SLC]

Short of impeachment proceedings (doubtful in the short term, and, not likely in the long term), I'm not sure the politics of the country can really rock the financial boat.

The fed raising interest rates. Change in monetary policy. New or changing regulations.

This tax change will be interesting to watch. Will certainly stimulate at least sectors of the economy. Hard to say what it will do more globally. Maybe uninformed, but, given the lack of knowledge about the impact, I wonder if foreign investments aren't as good a bet?

As far as having someone manage one's money...in a sense, if you stick with large mutual funds, then essentially it is being managed.

Hopefully by the end of Feb we'll have better news...no reason not to that I can see.

If folks have short term predictions, post up.

[oldno7]

I'm with Brian, the memo had a negotiable impact on stocks. It was the wage report that caused the chaos. There was nothing new in the memo that most didn't already suspect.

I follow markets very closely, I trade them daily.(by myself, with only my own analysis, mostly technical but some fundamental)

The wages increase/inflation issue was real, it was also a 2-300 pt correction issue.

Uncertainty with the memo, was the balance of the decline.IMO

[oldno7]

Short of impeachment proceedings (doubtful in the short term, and, not likely in the long term), I'm not sure the politics of the country can really rock the financial boat.

The fed raising interest rates. Change in monetary policy. New or changing regulations.

This tax change will be interesting to watch. Will certainly stimulate at least sectors of the economy. Hard to say what it will do more globally. Maybe uninformed, but, given the lack of knowledge about the impact, I wonder if foreign investments aren't as good a bet?

.

Global economy(IMO) is well worth watching.
I've invested a great deal in emerging markets as I think they all lag the US economy and have more room for growth.
As goes the US economy--goes the world economy.

[oldno7]

Short of impeachment proceedings (doubtful in the short term, and, not likely in the long term), I'm not sure the politics of the country can really rock the financial boat.


Honest--not trying to pick on you here but this statement is incredibly naive and/or ignorant.(the second half, first has zero chance)

[Brian in SLC]

Uncertainty with the memo, was the balance of the decline.IMO

The post analysis of the decline has been an interesting read. Marketwatch, Bloomberg, WSJ, Benzinga....none mention the memo as even a partial cause.

And, given the memo was a bit of a big nothing burger...no surprise there.

By all count, was an orderly sell off and not chaotic.

The whole market thing is interesting. I have friends who are in the financial sector, and, friends who dabble in the hobby of it (day trading, etc). Its kinda crazy.

I'm convinced that the folks who create immense amounts of wealth for themselves in the markets all have...information...that the rest of us aren't privy to. Lets just say everyone I know with a Harvard or Wharton MBA does pretty well... Its an insiders club.

That doesn't mean the table scraps aren't worth pickin' through.

Here's to fat returns to the next 2-3 years!

[oldno7]

The post analysis of the decline has been an interesting read. Marketwatch, Bloomberg, WSJ, Benzinga....none mention the memo as even a partial cause.

And, given the memo was a bit of a big nothing burger...no surprise there.

By all count, was an orderly sell off and not chaotic.

The whole market thing is interesting. I have friends who are in the financial sector, and, friends who dabble in the hobby of it (day trading, etc). Its kinda crazy.

I'm convinced that the folks who create immense amounts of wealth for themselves in the markets all have...information...that the rest of us aren't privy to. Lets just say everyone I know with a Harvard or Wharton MBA does pretty well... Its an insiders club.

That doesn't mean the table scraps aren't worth pickin' through.

Here's to fat returns to the next 2-3 years!

Ahh--so it's ignorance, I stand corrected, carry on..

[Brian in SLC]

Honest--not trying to pick on you here but this statement is incredibly naive and/or ignorant.(the second half, first has zero chance)

Humor me, then.

As an example....Bill Clinton was impeached by the house. The dow gains during his presidency? Second highest in history?

I think the market, driven by either a strong or weak economy, certainly is influenced especially at the consumer spending and confidence level, by the politics of the day. But, I don't think that influence is significant.

Now, if politics result in policy and regulations change...absolutely. A hike or cut in interest rates? Government bonds? Cutting entitlements? Raising the debt ceiling?

Sure.

Doesn't it seem when congress is in turmoil...that the market fairs well?

Shine some of your light on this, sensei.

[oldno7]

Ever hear of :

The new deal(had a positive affect on markets, just after the crash of 29)
Bay of pigs
Cuban missile crisis
Beginning of medicare
Vietnam
Watergate
Remember the crash of 87? (Iraq)
Subprime mortgage

[oldno7]

I'm not sure the politics of the country can really rock the financial boat.

.

This is ignorance and the above is a small representation of why.

[oldno7]

And---the short list is of those events that had a negative effect, you can google political events that had a positive one.

I'll even help you with something recently---Trump tax reform...

I'm guessing you were on the boat of "Trump will crash the market"

[Iceaxe]

I'm convinced that the folks who create immense amounts of wealth for themselves in the markets all have...information...that the rest of us aren't privy to. Lets just say everyone I know with a Harvard or Wharton MBA does pretty well... Its an insiders club.

That doesn't mean the table scraps aren't worth pickin' through.

Here's to fat returns to the next 2-3 years!

Yes and no, I agree information is king, but the info can come wearing many different hats.

For example their is very little in the US mining and energy sectors that I don't know about loooong before the average Joe. I know who's planing to expand or invest, I know who's going to be drilling and where, I know who is on top of high grade ore, I know who and wear the elecrticity is going to be coming from by who and where substations are being built. Who is adding to their refining capabilities, who is build new crushers and mill buildings, who has pipelines on the board, yada, yada. I know all this months before it is announced to the public.

[oldno7]

How about Brexit?

any market reaction to politics?

[Brian in SLC]

How about Brexit?

any market reaction to politics?

You mean the record highs?

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jul/11/stock-market-sp-500-dow-index-brexit-gains

[oldno7]

You mean the record highs?

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jul/11/stock-market-sp-500-dow-index-brexit-gains

I mean the fall and rise, both were created by politics,,Correct?

[Iceaxe]

And, given the memo was a bit of a big nothing burger.

What?!?

How can that be possible? Chuck and Nancy were plastered all over #FakeNews telling anyone who would listen that release of the memo would destroy the Republic as we know it.

The only thing the memo did was verify everything Sean Hannity, among others, had been saying for the past 6 months, which is also why I think the memo had almost zero effect of the stock market. Anyone watching the news already knew what was in it, their was no hidden easter egg in the memo.

:popcorn:

[oldno7]

And while I have your attention on Brexit---

I guess you are aware a US president tried to sway the vote of a foreign country?

You're willfully being ignorant and willfully dodging your false statement " I'm not sure the politics of the country can really rock the financial boat."



President Obama’s warning to those championing Britain’s exit from the EU was stark: Leave, he said, and the “U.K. is going to be in the back of the queue” on trade deals with the U.S.

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2016/04/obamas-brexit-plea/479469/

[oldno7]

I've given you examples of how US politics, greatly affected markets.

care to reverse your false statement yet, or should we just believe you cause......


YOUR QUOTE:
I'm not sure the politics of the country can really rock the financial boat.

[Brian in SLC]

And---the short list is of those events that had a negative effect, you can google political events that had a positive one.

I'll even help you with something recently---Trump tax reform...

I'm guessing you were on the boat of "Trump will crash the market"

No, I didn't think Trump would crash the market. Some folks close to me (ha ha) did. I think they were hoping for any indication that he was the wrong choice for the country. And...they still are.

Also, I think we're talking about a couple of different ideas. Politics, in general, the arguing, posturing, propaganda...versus actual events.

So... Politics: "the activities associated with the governance of a country or other area, especially the debate or conflict among individuals or parties having or hoping to achieve power."

My point is that the debate and/or conflict doesn't drive the market. Events certainly can. Political discourse preceding or following events...not so much.

Which is why I think "the memo", and its conversational impact, had little to nothing to do with the market. It was partisan politics is all. Not a significant event. Now, if an event resulted from "the memo"...maybe, but, since it again was a big nothing burger, there isn't one on the horizon.

The Trump tax reform could have a fairly significant impact. The changing of the tax code is an event. Driven by politics? Yeah, ok. One thing can lead to another. Remains to be seen, but, my bet is corporate America will adapt and make money from this change to taxes.

Which is why my hope that this little micro bubble pop correction is short term, and, that the long term will show gain rather than a continued drop.

Anyhow...I think we're disagreeing on two different ideas. Events certainly can move markets. The political discussion might drive those events. But the politics of the situation didn't...the event did.

Brexit will be interesting to watch...that situation still hasn't been fully realized. Interesting chatting with a member of parliament over the xmas holiday about Brexit and the PM (who they know personally). That and Brit ex-pats moving back to the UK. Quite a stew.

[Brian in SLC]

I've given you examples of how US politics, greatly affected markets.

care to reverse your false statement yet, or should we just believe you cause......


YOUR QUOTE:
I'm not sure the politics of the country can really rock the financial boat.

You gave me examples of how events changed the market.

Sure, all of your Russian inspired memes can influence people who vote (see 2016 election results on how Americans were duped by the Russians into voting for Trump and against crooked Hillary). People are influenced by politics. The market is influenced by events.

Do politics drive events? Sure.

Did you big Trump supporters check with facebook to see if you followed Russian propaganda? I did. Big fat "zero". Let's hear your results.

https://www.recode.net/2017/12/22/16811558/facebook-russia-trolls-how-to-find-propaganda-2016-election-trump-clinton

[oldno7]

So the memo wasn't a political event?:roflol::roflol:

You liberals are so great at dodging your own statements, it's hilarious!

Lets try again.
IS THIS ACCURATE?

YOUR QUOTE:
I'm not sure the politics of the country can really rock the financial boat.

Yes or NO should suffice....