Stocks

[Iceaxe]

but just because I don't think the risk of a Dem win is priced in.

ROFLMAO

A Dem win.... you crack me up.... not a chance in hell any of the current top 4 can unseat Trump.


Climb-Utah.com

[dougrz]

ROFLMAO

A Dem win.... you crack me up.... not a chance in hell any of the current top 4 can unseat TrumpI know we differ, and I desperately want to be wrong. But stats and demographics tell me otherwise.

I'd rank the likely outcomes in 2020 as:

Dem sweep 40%
Dem narrow win, maybe R senate 20%
Rep narrow win, 35%
Rep sweep, 5%

Call me crazy. Point to immigration numbers, death numbers, HS graduations, or pop culture movers indicating larger numbers of Americans in existence. Plenty more third worlders, border jumpers, and brainwashed kids since 2016, and fewer of us as we die off.

Recall, with 1980's electorate, Trump won 60-40. He lost 52-48 with 2016's.

I'm doing my yearly analysis and rebalancing. I'm seeing some depressed names in energy that have priced in the Dem risk. So the entire market isn't ostrich-ing.

[Iceaxe]

What most people fail to realize and what the polls and mainstream never point out is the general presidential election really only involves 6 states. Win the majority in those states, where Trump is currently leading, and you win the presidency. This makes Trumps task amazing simple as he can focus most of his time, energy and money on those 6 states.

Of more interest to me at the moment is who will Trump face as the Challenger. The Democrats are currently forced to spend their war chest in an attempt to win the nomination, and to make matters worse they are forced to spread their time, energy and money across all 50 states.

Anything is possible as Hillary only had to win the same six states as Trump does, the difference is Hillary took those states for granted and never even bother to visit two of them. Hillary somehow managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory with her hubris. Trump will not make the same mistake.

2020 is really about who controls the Senate and House and what this impeachment bullshit is really all about. The Democrats are attempting to scar GOP Senators in tenuous positions in the 2020 election. If Democrats can get the Senate they can neuter Trump the same way the GOP did Obama. As LBJ famously said "The House is chicken shit, the Senate is chicken salad."

Trump now has 187 Federal judges including 2 SCOTUS picks to his credit. Trump and McConnell have already made a huge impact on history with that. If the GOP can hold the Senate for another 4 years Trump will eventually go down in history as one of the top 5 most influential presidents ever.

YMMV

Climb-Utah.com

[Iceaxe]

This damn Coronavirus is killing stocks... that is all...

Climb-Utah.com

[oldno7]

This damn Coronavirus is killing stocks... that is all...

Climb-Utah.com

Not nearly as bad as if we get more romney sellouts in the Senate trial.

I'd venture if it goes to more witness', today, we see a 800+ drop Monday.

[BasinCruiser]

Dow dropped 600 points today. :eek2:

I thought between with the impending Trump acquittal and the sunrise of Brexit (https://www.ksl.com/article/46711648/britain-leaves-the-european-union-leaps-into-the-unknown), that stocks would be shooting for the stars today.

Instead, apparently fears over the Bud Light..err Coronavirus has everyone selling off.?? https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/31/stock-market-wall-street-in-focus-after-coronavirus-declares-global-emergency.html

Is this virus really that serious, or just an overhyped media scare? At this point, it seems to be something at least Wallstreet is definitely paying attention to.

[Iceaxe]

Wallstreet hates uncertainty, and I think that's the big issue with the Coronavirus. No one really knows what the extent of the virus will be. A deadly pandemic has been a major concern of world health organizations for years.

Climb-Utah.com

[oldno7]

The markets move in an almost pure mathematical path, known to those who use such indicators as "technical" traders or investors.

When the market exceeds it's highs on a regular basis it brings true value of stocks to an unhealthy level known as overbought/overpriced.

This position of the market(overbought) is unhealthy, it is the ultimate definition of inflation.

All investors and traders know these levels must correct and always do.

There are mathematical ways to predict when this might happen that are more often than not connected to a fundamental reason.

While the timing of such corrections can be timed, the price also has a series of levels that are predetermined.

The lower the level, in a correction is often tied to a basis in fundamentals.

While a strong market will and needs to correct, the depth of correction is generally not as severe in a strong market.

So while we often look for a fundamental reason to blame on a market drop, often it was just mathematically time.

Keep in mind that while a market is putting in new high after new high, it is exceeding the value of everything that relates to those stocks.

So--while our retirement accounts are reaping the rewards, our cost of all goods always exceeds their true value.

ie. we pay $500 for a computer that last year was $300, $4 for bread that was $3 last year and so on....

[Iceaxe]

^^^I have a degree in Mathematics, and specialized in statics..... I wish predicting stocks were that simple....

The part I can agree with is over time statically you should hit your numbers, but there is a lot more to it then that... if it were as simple as plugging into a formula I'd have retired long ago...

YMMV

[oldno7]

^^^I have a degree in Mathematics, and specialized in statics..... I wish predicting stocks were that simple....

The part I can agree with is over time statically you should hit your numbers, but there is a lot more to it then that... if it were as simple as plugging into a formula I'd have retired long ago...

YMMV

There was no mention of simple.

It is time consuming and a job.

Results can never be 100% but right enough to outperform a buy and hold investor.

[oldno7]

Ford's profits fall nearly 99% for year, due to Explorer woes


Dearborn — The botched introduction of the new Explorer SUV contributed to a nearly 99% decline in profit in 2019 at Ford Motor Co., which made $47 million and missed its guidance for the year.


https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/autos/ford/2020/02/04/ford-earnings-fourth-quarter-2019/4626722002/

[Iceaxe]

When will the DJIA hit 30,000?

Some are predicting we might see 30k on Friday if the payroll reports are better then the already bright outlook.

Climb-Utah.com

[diesel]

Earnings have been falling but the market is up.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/mcclellan/mcclellan020620.html

Sent from my LG-M210 using Tapatalk

[dougrz]

Earnings have been falling but the market is up.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/mcclellan/mcclellan020620.html

Sent from my LG-M210 using TapatalkGood link, thanks. I've been steeped in the market for the last 11 years. Data driven research is key in my universe. The CAPE/Shiller index is a powerful long trend indicator I watch.

This article mentions "pre-tax profits" vs GDP. Except the market was specifically boosted by corp tax cuts, which boosted post-tax profits. And smart money knows reduced corp taxes aren't a one time stimulus like govt spending is. Instead they are a compounding stimulus, as more and more highly efficient private money goes to work. But it also doesn't take into account that rising wages might be explaining an overall profit decline. And rising wages- rather than confiscated and misallocated tax revenue- is good for companies overall regardless.

But the market is more than simply earnings vs price, as his analysis leans mostly. It's expected earnings vs price, earnings growth rate vs price, sentiment vs price. Lot of variables, not least of which is the genuine deregulatory environment of these past 3 years.

[oldno7]

^^^I have a degree in Mathematics, and specialized in statics..... I wish predicting stocks were that simple....

The part I can agree with is over time statically you should hit your numbers, but there is a lot more to it then that... if it were as simple as plugging into a formula I'd have retired long ago...

YMMV

https://i.imgflip.com/3p4qj8.jpg

[dougrz]

Speaking of the CAPE (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclically_adjusted_price-to-earnings_ratio), the latest. We are ripe for a hard, hard pullback if Dems sweep. A repeal of the Trump tax cuts and reinvigorated regulatory state would blister the market.

Short of the dotcom boom, we're at/near an all time high (the corp tax cuts have reset the baseline, though, imo). Not unwarranted, therefore. But whatever % chance you allot to that nightmare Dem scenario, multiply by the huge penalty factor.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200213/edeb2ba1eeb8e48fa493e0e36689c661.jpg

[dougrz]

There is a dislocation in valuations between renewable energy and conventional energy. Caused of late by an appreciable shift in the investment activity of institutions with political aims. Universities, state retirement funds, activist funds, etc, toward renewables.

Lofty numbers for a lot of solar and other names, not so lofty for oil and gas, with amazing dividend yields historically.

Charts of ExxonMobil's yield in particular. Vs the share price of TAN, PBW, and ACES, three large clean energy funds, over the last 2 years. https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200219/9b72a8ece71d544d1603a42a6f70f1bc.jpghttps://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200219/1542e1e35f1c5630ff56a97347ac6a88.jpghttps://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200219/b632c32bd7f7f61c2afba5f03e8f90ee.jpghttps://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200219/c8ae1d3ce6419a0fcdaa7700da36c213.jpg

[rockgremlin]

Hmmmm....interesting analysis.


So I can conclude that those with political aims don't like to make money then? Seems to me that anybody with half a brain would want to put profits over politics.

:ne_nau:

[dougrz]

It's not that politically aimed investors don't want to make money, obviously. It's that trades become crowded.

[oldno7]

It's that trades become crowded.

please give further details:ne_nau:

[oldno7]

There is a dislocation in valuations between renewable energy and conventional energy. Caused of late by an appreciable shift in the investment activity of institutions with political aims. Universities, state retirement funds, activist funds, etc, toward renewables.

Lofty numbers for a lot of solar and other names, not so lofty for oil and gas, with amazing dividend yields historically.

Charts of ExxonMobil's yield in particular. Vs the share price of TAN, PBW, and ACES, three large clean energy funds, over the last 2 years. https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200219/9b72a8ece71d544d1603a42a6f70f1bc.jpghttps://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200219/1542e1e35f1c5630ff56a97347ac6a88.jpghttps://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200219/b632c32bd7f7f61c2afba5f03e8f90ee.jpghttps://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200219/c8ae1d3ce6419a0fcdaa7700da36c213.jpg

The last 3 charts had price jumps in excess of 5% just today. Impressive run.

The first chart I don't understand, it is not Exxon(XOM), which has certainly suffered a 25% decrease in value.

Exxon has been consistantly paying .87 share dividend over the last year.(quarterly)

TTM is a ticker for TaTa motors, it is very near filling a gap and moving into buy territory, for me.

Might need to get sum tata

Figures your into a shrinking tata market.:haha:

[rockgremlin]

It's not that politically aimed investors don't want to make money, obviously. It's that trades become crowded.

Yes, I too would like to know what is meant by "crowded trades."

If I'm an investor, I wanna put my money where it is going to get the most bang for the buck, regardless of political ideology. Money knows no party, and has no agenda. Throwing money at something that doesn't yield much return for the sake of propping up an agenda is a bonehead move.

[dougrz]

The first chart I don't understand, it is not Exxon(XOM), which has certainly suffered a 25% decrease in value.

Exxon has been consistantly paying .87 share dividend over the last year.(quarterly)

TTM is a ticker for TaTa motors, it is very near filling a gap and moving into buy territory, for me.

The first chart is of XOM's dividend yield, not stock price. Div yield is dividend/price. TTM = trailing twelve months.

With very large corporate stocks, div yield often creates a floor value. Cos will borrow to continue divi payouts through some rough patches, it's that important. For XOM's yield to be approaching 6% is noteworthy. There is real capital flight from traditional energy.

If you believe oil is on the way out, then this deterioration will continue. If you think the trade into alternatives is rushed, then these yields are supports. Hard to imagine yields from cash gushing companies getting much better than that listed below, especially given the abysmal rates available elsewhere.

XOM yield = 5.75
RDS = 7.5
CVX = 4.75
TOT = 6
SNP = 10
OXY = 7.5

I was recently talking to my advisor and he mentioned the movement by funds into alternatives for less than strictly disciplined reasons. I started researching this a bit more since I hold a lot of energy as is. I'm not opposed to alternative investments, I've made good money in some previous solar stocks. But valuation is key, and alt energy is an expensive trade.

Yield histories:https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200220/62418c475347324c08f7df228f351e7d.jpghttps://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200220/2247c4253f7f6be9bc088eed3e86ffc3.jpghttps://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200220/afcbe99cf1377e53aaa454733cc54a2d.jpghttps://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200220/7e30a12a8527dcb2d49715444acb24ba.jpghttps://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200220/e9f8b6cbd9e4f884872820ef6a1e3f95.jpg

[oldno7]

I'll bet 29 was a bitch..

https://cdn.aarp.net/content/dam/aarp/money/budgeting_savings/2019/09/1140-ford-for-sale-in-1929.jpg

[dougrz]

I'll bet 29 was a bitch..

https://cdn.aarp.net/content/dam/aarp/money/budgeting_savings/2019/09/1140-ford-for-sale-in-1929.jpgI was fortunate to have older parents and oldster relatives from the Depression era when I was a kid. Really helped form me, their stories and values. Was a brutal time. An aunt and uncle were lawyers back then and became destitute, living in a house with 7 or 8 others. Later built successful legal careers, she was an assistant AG in CA.

But that generation deeply valued a functioning, stable, orderly society, with reason, thrift, and gratitude central. Opposite the societal values of today.

[oldno7]

whoowheeeee.....

Big drop coming this morning

8-900 pt drop

[diesel]

And it's too late to buy cheap gold & silver. $1700 and $19 will prolly be a bargain soon.

Sent from my LG-M210 using Tapatalk

[oldno7]

And it's too late to buy cheap gold & silver. $1700 and $19 will prolly be a bargain soon.

Sent from my LG-M210 using Tapatalk

Gold, silver, platinum where on my buy list several months ago and everyone said why buy precious metals...

[diesel]

I have been preaching gold and silver for 2 years. Sooo under valued. My mining positions are doing well and will retain more value than Tesla and Caterpillar.

Sent from my LG-M210 using Tapatalk

[Iceaxe]

It was a no brainer that stocks were going to tank Monday morning when it became obvious this weekend that Coronavirus was going to become a pandemic.

Climb-Utah.com

[oldno7]

I'm poised to profit from this drop, hope some others are too.


I'm looking for 26,545, I'll start buying back in there.

25,634 would have me completely reinvested in the indices.

Them dividends sure are nice, for now.

[Iceaxe]

Dow plunges as Coronavirus pandemic fright grips globe.

https://www.foxnews.com/health/global-outbreak-causes-pandemic-fears-after-cases-jump-in-italy-and-south-korea

Climb-Utah.com

[oldno7]

It's all math, not simple math but math.

Right Dougrz and diesel?(Rock)

This has been a long time coming, the price this morning has erased 2 months+ of gains.

Trump is the kicker, these markets haven't dropped as much under his administration.

coronavirus is just the talking heads excuse for what has been inevitable.

[Iceaxe]

I disagree the stock market is just math. How trade with other countries will be effected is a lot more complex then just math.... but whatever...

Markets tank on concern about virus impact on world economy

https://www.ksl.com/article/46721297/markets-tank-on-concern-about-virus-impact-on-world-economy

Climb-Utah.com

[oldno7]

It's o.k. to disagree, as long as you are making money or have potential to make money while not losing 10% of your retirement.

I don't read any news on the markets or particular stocks other than a glancing, occasional view.

News(fundamentals) don't matter to me.

Math(technicals):2thumbs:

[oldno7]

this one can be helpfull


100
RSI = 100 - --------
1 + RS

RS = Average Gain / Average Loss

[oldno7]

And If you add a indicator I wrote for the TD Ameritrade TOS system, it gets way better.


Kurt’s Volume Avg



Plot Data+Volume;
Data.setpaintingstrategy(paintingstrategy.histogra m);
Data.assignvaluecolor(if volume*.62>volumeavg(length=10).volavg then color.red else color.blue


just math

[oldno7]

And throw in a bit of Leonardo Pisano's work and your odds get higher yet.

Math

[rockgremlin]

You heard it here, folks: The Dow Jones dropped over 1,200 points in two days because Bernie Sanders is going to be our next president.

https://www.ccn.com/did-bernie-sanders-nevada-win-send-the-dow-into-death-spiral/

:roflol::roflol::roflol::roflol::roflol::roflol::r oflol::roflol::roflol:

Thanks for laugh.

[BasinCruiser]

I'm poised to profit from this drop, hope some others are too.


I'm looking for 26,545, I'll start buying back in there.

25,634 would have me completely reinvested in the indices.

Them dividends sure are nice, for now.



I'm just waiting for the tried and true indicator from accadacca that the bottom is going to drop out. Then, I know it's time to jump back in. :haha:

[Iceaxe]

^^^THIS^^^

Climb-Utah.com

[dougrz]

I'm well positioned for a virus selloff as you all know, having been selling down on Dem sweep risk.

But I'll strategically pick individual stocks that look enticing regardless. The small mid day rally fizzled out, selling continued into the close. Probably another down day tomorrow.

I noticed some remote conferencing stocks did well, for obvious reason. ZM, for example.

[dougrz]

And If you add a indicator I wrote for the TD Ameritrade TOS system, it gets way better.


Kurt’s Volume Avg



Plot Data+Volume;
Data.setpaintingstrategy(paintingstrategy.histogra m);
Data.assignvaluecolor(if volume*.62>volumeavg(length=10).volavg then color.red else color.blue


just mathI used to concentrate on the Ichimoku Cloud in TOS when I was actively trading options. Have been out of TOS for a few years, what an incredible platform.

[dougrz]

It's all math, not simple math but math.

Right Dougrz and diesel?(Rock)

Market psychology is absolutely fascinating. Math underlies. After all, no earnings, no stock price. And vice versa. But that still doesn't tell you about the future, and that's equally or more important than what the math correctly tells you present value might be.

Add human emotion, rumor, anger, passion, and error, and you get this.

[dougrz]

I have been preaching gold and silver for 2 years. Sooo under valued. My mining positions are doing well and will retain more value than Tesla and Caterpillar.

Sent from my LG-M210 using TapatalkMining is a good way to play metals. Imo better than physical, unless you are doomsdaying. In which case I'd rather have physical food and guns and other daily life tradeables anyway.

Better since it's a levered play, with the added boost of momentum and market anticipation.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200225/d1e03312a2c463508ba41720ec5def45.jpg

[oldno7]

After today, I'll be 75% re invested in the indices(mutuals)

I still have the remaining 25% in a dividend fund, if we drop lower I'll put the 25% back in as well, if not I'll hold it.

If we stay near the daily low on close today, I believe we hit my 26,564 area tomorrow and rebound up, sharply.

[rockgremlin]

I think it goes to 21,000. Maybe lower.

This is full panic selling right now. No end in sight.

[dougrz]

I think it goes to 21,000. Maybe lower.

This is full panic selling right now. No end in sight.21k would be a 30% correction. Historic that would be. I would not complain for the bargains from collateral damage.

I'm not sure it would worsen Trump's chances. It would be widely attributed to Corona, and difficult to spin into criticism of Trump economic policy.

[oldno7]

As of todays close, we are 8.7% off the highs.

[oldno7]

433 points from my support number of 26,564.

I've seen in the past in this situation, a morning selloff and a rally to positive territory.

I think tomorrow is a key test of how low we go.

If it holds, we should go up and blow through 30,000.

If we close below 26,564, we are headed lower to 25,636 area.

[rockgremlin]

Utah company Co-Diagnostics Inc. showcased in a listing of stocks poised to benefit from Coronavirus outbreak:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.benzinga.com/amp/content/15172081

[oldno7]

I think the energy sector is approaching a buying point.

It has been down for several years.

Individual stock I like is Exxon.

A mutual I like that pays a good dividend is EGLCX

I hold next to nothing long term but if Trump goes 4 more years--this sector should do well.

[dougr]

A mutual I like that pays a good dividend is EGLCX

Consider an MLP ETF. Much lower expense ratio, no loads either way, slightly higher payout possible, and an ETF structure vs a mutual fund. Like MLPA and AMLP to name 2. The (typically) active management of a mutual fund, and the high fees associated with that, are usually only beneficial in fluid targeted investing. Say, a "China emerging biotech fund." Where eyes and ears on the ground are your friend. Versus a relatively staid sector like energy MLPs, where a low expense ratio ETF will do as well, with the lower fees racking up over time.

If you overlay those 3, you'll see mirror image movements the last 5 years. Telltale of active management not producing a better result than an index. In which case the higher fees cause decay. More than 5 years ago, there was some outperformance by the fund. Perhaps an early manager who was quite good left at some point.

https://etfdb.com/etfs/industry/mlp/

After large, fast market declines, it's always worth scanning through closed end funds, looking for some discounts to NAV. https://www.cefa.com/FundSelector/AdvancedSearch.fs, concentrating on the "Prem/Disc" column in the negative.

[oldno7]

Thanks for those dougr

I get in a rut and trade those I know and have traded prior.

I really like the looks of AMLP but as you accurately stated,

you can take a chart from most all the players and they overlay almost to perfection.

So buying the low of a sector, plus the benefit of a dividend is very enticing.

The benefit of an ETF to someone who trades all day is huge.

Especially being able to use low risk stops!(every trade I make involves low risk)

When I lose in a trade, I lose small.

To someone who doesn't have time for that, not so much.

Thanks again.

[oldno7]

433 points from my support number of 26,564.

I've seen in the past in this situation, a morning selloff and a rally to positive territory.

I think tomorrow is a key test of how low we go.

If it holds, we should go up and blow through 30,000.

If we close below 26,564, we are headed lower to 25,636 area.


We will take out my first number this morning--26,564

[oldno7]

And liberals are getting excited, thinking, please let people die so Trump looks bad.:gloom:

How will market react when the first Coronavirus death is reported(oughta be a hysterical msm cry heard round the world.)

I'm sure they already have their stories written.

[rockgremlin]

And liberals are getting excited, thinking, please let people die so Trump looks bad.

I guess I could be shocked that people actually behave this way...

But then again, these are the same folks that are fighting desperately to preserve the right to murder newborn infants upon birth.

[diesel]

But then again, these are the same folks that are fighting desperately to preserve the right to murder newborn infants upon birth.

How else do we control the population? Trump refuses to follow the Obama model and involve us in needless conflicts all over the globe. "Sorry Mrs Smith little Kyle just doesn't measure up we're going have to toss 'em into the baby chipper. Better luck next time"

Sent from my LG-M210 using Tapatalk

[rockgremlin]

My 21,000 number looks better and better, eh? :haha:

Another week like this one and we'll be flirting with sub-20,000 territory. But it's worth it because......coronavirus.

[accadacca]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200228/ac9d397fc7f3d9b46f01bd988817f1ef.jpg

[Iceaxe]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200228/ac9d397fc7f3d9b46f01bd988817f1ef.jpg
Accadacca has made his prediction... time to buy!

Climb-Utah.com

[rockgremlin]

^^^^FINALLY!!!

I've been waiting patiently for the right time to buy back in, and here it is! :lol8:

To put the current drop into perspective, the Great Recession saw stocks drop from roughly 14,100 to 6,600 -- a 7,500 drop (53%). So far the last week has seen the market drop from 29,551 to 25,766, a 3,785 point drop (13%) in only one week. There's plenty of room to fall further.

Mass hysteria gets expensive...

[twotimer]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200228/ac9d397fc7f3d9b46f01bd988817f1ef.jpgOn the contrary, this is a buying opportunity. I made a fortune by diving into the market in March of '09, and then selling all that I bought between then and the end of 2015. I quadrupled my net worth, seriously.

That was an opportunity that I figured might only come once in a lifetime, so I took advantage of it. I'll be going on another buying spree when I feel the time is right. Tomorrow? Next week? Next month?...I'll know it when the time is right. I don't think this will go on for very long, however...a lot of people are just taking profit and they'll be buying back in.

"The time to buy is when there is blood in the streets". These big drops are great if you've got some cash on hand.

[BasinCruiser]

I'm just waiting for the tried and true indicator from @accadacca (http://www.bogley.com/forum/member.php?u=3) that the bottom is going to drop out. Then, I know it's time to jump back in. :haha:





https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200228/ac9d397fc7f3d9b46f01bd988817f1ef.jpg

And there it is. The cannery in the mine has signaled its time to move. :lol8:

[dougr]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/investor-challenges-coronavirus-market-turmoil-this-is-a-bernie-sanders-story-215843823.html

94134

As I've been trying to warn all you's peeps.

------
However, at least a few investors see Sanders’ rise — and the failure of a more moderate candidate to emerge from the crowded Democratic field — as a growing risk to markets. Billionaire bond king Jeffrey Gundlach recently warned that Sanders could trigger a market correction (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jeffrey-gundlach-on-bernie-sanders-risk-150327797), a sentiment he reiterated on Wednesday to CNBC (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/26/gundlach-blames-bernie-sanders-for-sell-off-cites-dark-side-of-momentum-investing.html).

In a lengthy research note published on Thursday, RBC Capital Markets noted that “investors may have been rattled by [former New York City mayor Mike] Bloomberg’s loss of momentum, not just Sanders’s surge,” amplified by a “high degree of nervousness about the coronavirus.”

Sanders is currently the frontrunner to challenge President Donald Trump in the fall, with victories in New Hampshire and Nevada giving him momentum. RBC also remarked on the “enthusiasm and dedication of his supporters,” which could make the general election more competitive if he prevails in the Democratic primaries.

“We think it’s no coincidence that the S&P 500 (^GSPC (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC?p=%5EGSPC&.tsrc=fin-srch)) peaked alongside last week’s Democratic debate in Nevada, which was generally viewed as a bad night for Bloomberg and a good night for Sanders” and Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren,” RBC wrote.

“We expect a close race in November and think investors are correct to take Sanders’s surge seriously,” the bank added.

[oldno7]

should drop 4-500 on open, again today.

[oldno7]

The number that has to hold before this gets ugly is 24,709

After that rocks prediction is in site.

[oldno7]

dow now down 6-700 to open

[oldno7]

Now 7-800,

[diesel]

Wow! Just wow. When, not if, this disaster hits main street the people are going to be looking for a Wall Street head hunter. It doesn't look like permanent QE was such a good idea. With the momentum this will give Sanders, the market will easily slip to canned goods trading.

Sent from my LG-M210 using Tapatalk

[dougr]

We might be seeing a repeat of 2008, politically. The market's tumult that year paved the way for Obama and his radicalism. If there is like carnage here, yes, Sanders' vision of anti-markets, anti-biz might be appealing. He only needs to move a few % to win.

I'm a broken record, but the market hadn't priced in the risk a Dem/Sanders sweep. Might have seemed low risk, but with a high penalty factor.

I have to think this selloff is three pronged:

1, virus slowdown sparked it
2, earnings ratio on a CAPE basis (I posted a chart a few weeks ago) was historically lofty
3, Sanders risk

[rockgremlin]

I'm not sure why Sanders (or anybody) would be anti-market. Anybody who has a 401K, IRA, mutual fund, or any other retirement account has a big financial stake in the stock market. Seeing it fail means kissing your retirement nest egg goodbye.

Why would anyone want that?

[oldno7]

I'm not sure why Sanders (or anybody) would be anti-market. Anybody who has a 401K, IRA, mutual fund, or any other retirement account has a big financial stake in the stock market. Seeing it fail means kissing your retirement nest egg goodbye.

Why would anyone want that?

Because they're a democrat and enjoy misery and PROFIT from it.

[oldno7]

The number that has to hold before this gets ugly is 24,709

After that rocks prediction is in site.

Hard 300 point bounce off that # so far

[oldno7]

Well that picture sucks but the math is good.


Down about 16.6% at todays low from all time high.

[Iceaxe]

I have to think this selloff is three pronged:

The big problem right now is all the big traders computer programs and algorithms are set to automatically sell if the market drops to XXX. This causes a cascade which triggers other sell programs algorithms.

Something Trump could do to stop the slide is temporarily suspended all tariffs on China for the next 90 days or so. This Virus has devastated the Chinese economy, which will be devastating to our supply chains and effect our economy. The US has already won the trade war, temporarily suspending tariffs would help the world economy, and it would show all nations that we want them to succeed... let's see if Trump takes my advice... hahaha...

Iceaxe prediction... the Dow will be back above 28,000 before September.

/Bookmarked



Climb-Utah.com

[oldno7]

I think the energy sector is approaching a buying point.

It has been down for several years.

Individual stock I like is Exxon.

A mutual I like that pays a good dividend is EGLCX

I hold next to nothing long term but if Trump goes 4 more years--this sector should do well.


While the market tanks xom +2%

[oldno7]

Very good day to buy the energy sector according to my math.

And I did

[dougrz]

Very good day to buy the energy sector according to my math.

And I didWhich. I entered HMLP, SNP, and OGZPY.

[oldno7]

Which. I entered HMLP, SNP, and OGZPY.


EGLCX
MLPA
XOM

And all 3 pay a dividend as well.

[dougrz]

EGLCX
MLPA
XOM

And all 3 pay a dividend as well.XOM yielding about 7 is incredible. Historically considered best of breed, but in recent years the market has soured on its capital management.

All the oil cos have political risk with targets on their backs if Dems sweep, but XOM in particular would be the scalp Dems want the most.

But given normal times, you'd expect XOM total return from here to be a double in 7 years or so. 50% in divs, 50% in price appreciation.

[oldno7]

I am solely a trader, I will likely buy and sell these dozens of times in the coming months.

I will try to hold the mutuals a bit as they aren't as volatile as single stocks and with a dividend, a bit of a safe space.

I have a very good system for getting in and out of mutuals and etf's I trade the same as stocks.

But make no mistake--A long term hold on a stock for me would be a week.

Most are traded inter day and most of those, I'm in and out within the first hour and then done for the day.

[dougrz]

But make no mistake--A long term hold on a stock for me would be a week.

Ah, ok. I'm a much longer holder. I rarely if ever hold less than a few months. I do options for short earnings trades and such, but not often anymore.

I'm still wary of the market, thinking the political power of this scam alarmism isn't going to stop soon. Dems and media want this to be Trump's Katrina. They will stop at nothing.

[BasinCruiser]

And there it is. The cannery in the mine has signaled its time to move. :lol8:



Annnnnnnd...Will you look at that. Biggest one day jump ever.

94154

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/us-stocks-march-2-2020

[oldno7]

Energy sector up big as well.

XOM--+4.74%
MLPA--+3.14%
EGLCX--+3.11%

[Iceaxe]

Iceaxe prediction... the Dow will be back above 28,000 before September.

Damn... halfway there in one day.

Things will slow down as we near 28,000 but there is nothing fundamentally wrong with our current economy.


Climb-Utah.com

[dougrz]

I'd expect some selling tomorrow. Expectation of Fed stimulus isn't enough to sustain a rally.

[oldno7]

I'd expect some selling tomorrow. Expectation of Fed stimulus isn't enough to sustain a rally.

yep, agree.

Lots of chop to come

[oldno7]

Should open +500ish

[oldno7]

If dow takes out this latest swing low(24,681), expect a rapid selloff.

First target 21,712.

[oldno7]

going down another 1000 this morning

[dougr]

I'm still mostly in cash. I did sell two options plays yesterday, Jan. 2021 puts on AMD and UBER.

We know this is a manufactured hysteria by the media and Dems, now joined by the official Chicom party statement blaming the US for the spread. But the hysteria is doing real damage to economic activity. Investors have to pay attention to that.

[oldno7]

Would not want to be an "investor", here!

I'm thinking we run back up over 27,000, then be careful.

[dougrz]

If these were normal times, one thing. But this is an election year, with purposeful misinformation and FUD being spread to tank not just the markets, but actual economic activity.

Therefore it's hard to put a finger on how far we go. But I'm going to be patient and make some money. Note I didn't say "a patient." I said "patient."

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/03/809904660/why-the-death-rate-from-coronavirus-is-plunging-in-china

^Because this truth will eventually win out.

"Then he added a twist. Outside of Wuhan — the city at the epicenter of the outbreak — the death rate in China has been much lower: about 0.7%. That's fewer than 1 fatality per 100 cases."

"Similarly, a study released by China's Center for Disease Control last month found that if you factor out all the data from Hubei province, where Wuhan is located, the fatality rate in the rest of China drops to 0.4%."

[oldno7]

So--we aren't going to die this month?

Covid 19 only lit the fuse of a bomb that was planted long ago.

I don't see a covid reaction here, I see a market reaction.

[oldno7]

The Stock Market is the only market where, when prices go down, people go running out of the store in a panic.

[Iceaxe]

The Stock Market is the only market where, when prices go down, people go running out of the store in a panic.

^^^Not Me :-)

[rockgremlin]

Market crashes 16% in 9 days...

94181

[oldno7]

I at least hope some will look at history of sharp market declines and act accordingly.^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

[dougr]

The Stock Market is the only market where, when prices go down, people go running out of the store in a panic.

The old adage, "buy low, sell high" isn't easy and is seldom practiced because of that.

If you're highly adventurous, energy is crazy cheap across the board. It's hard to not pound the table at these prices.

ENBL, an energy midstream, is high teens down to $5. Yielding around 25%. I have no knowledge of their issues, but the yield caught my eye. SNP, the largest oil company in the world, yielding 11% with a price/book ratio of 0.6. Just nuts.

ENBL's last conference call: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4325331-enable-midstream-partners-lp-enbl-ceo-rodney-sailor-on-q4-2019-results-earnings-call I have a comment/Q posted underneath.

[rockgremlin]

A timely read:

https://www.amazon.com/Markets-Mobs-Mayhem-Modern-Madness/dp/0471233277?utm_source=The+Ripper&utm_campaign=ebf4821529-DailyRip_COPY_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_66394c4410-ebf4821529-192247981

[dougrz]

Add an apparent collapse in oil prices to this virus induced panic. Ostensibly Russia's refusal to go along with OPEC production cuts to prop the price of oil caused Saudi Arabia to essentially declare a price war.

Oil futures on Sunday afternoon are indicating at 25%+ drop in oil prices Monday.

Then add Italy's partial lockdown order this weekend. We might see 20k DJIA by the end of this week. Whether any is justified doesn't matter.

[rockgremlin]

A 6,000 point drop in the Dow in one week?

Have you bought a 5 year supply of toilet paper yet?

[dougrz]

We have a confluence of events being fanned deliberately by the media for one, but institutional Wall St money adamantly wants Biden now, two. Pulling the market down can be done with their large selling. Their money coming in to pick up bargains is what was going to stoke a rally. I don't believe big money wants a rally at this time.

The hysteria about the virus' risk is silly. How the market reacts is real. Best piece of advice I've received as an investor: what's going to happen isn't what you think is going to happen, it's what everyone else thinks is going to happen. A horrific week will be born of that even though I believe it's unwarranted.

I'm sitting on mostly cash and benefit from the selloff I don't want to see. This isn't self serving. This will reveal the power of CNN and MSNBC to drive the market.

[rockgremlin]

I've gotta respectfully disagree with the notion that Wall Street investors want Biden.

Why would Wall Street want a bumbling demential hair sniffer over the very businessman that has been stoking an extended bull market for the last 3 years?

[dougrz]

I've gotta respectfully disagree with the notion that Wall Street investors want Biden.


Large biz wants 3 things: lower corp taxes, open borders, and no restrictions on trade with China. They got the first from Trump. It takes Dems to get the other two. They believe the first can be maintained with sufficient lobbying with Dems in power.

[dougrz]

Futures on Sunday night.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200309/bb2ccdc7c37d1bee24d141599d80803e.jpg

Bond yields Sunday night. This could be an historically ugly day tomorrow.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200309/c3a2fd014141fa37521f8d74da5193ec.jpg

[oldno7]

Circuit breakers have kicked in, futures is halted.

This could get real ugly, monday.

AND beyond.

[rockgremlin]

The number that has to hold before this gets ugly is 24,709

After that rocks prediction is in site.

Here it comes...

A price war over oil + Coronavirus fears = a perfect storm.

[rockgremlin]

Barrick Gold and Newmont doing reasonably well, and will probably go higher. An increased gold price plus a decrease in fuel costs will benefit gold producers.

[dougrz]

5.5 hours till the open. 10% down isn't out of the realm. 2000+ points. I'm tossing and turning. London overnights are already at 10%.

March 9, 2009 was the low then. Bizarre that this date emerges again.

[oldno7]

A 7% drop will halt the market for 15 min.(circuit breaker)

Likely happen very early on, this morning.


13%--15 min. halt.

20%--complete halt.

What ETF's some of you looking at in the indices?

[oldno7]

-2000 coming this morning.

[dougrz]

Premarket action is -7.5% ish, so we're looking right around -1900 on the open.

I'm paying attention to XLU, utilities. If they pace along with the broad market, the sell off will be a free fall. -5000 isn't impossible, as fear will decimate all sectors.

[oldno7]

Premarket action is -7.5% ish, so we're looking right around -1900 on the open.

I'm paying attention to XLU, utilities. If they pace along with the broad market, the sell off will be a free fall. -5000 isn't impossible, as fear will decimate all sectors.

I see -1800 so far but fear will drive this.

A minimum of 30% off the all time high seems to be an easy target.

[dougrz]

Premarket, BP -20%, XOM -15%, Conoco -23%, ET (pipelines) -25%.

We've not experienced a crash like this.

[oldno7]

first circuit breaker hit

should be 15 min. hold

[dougr]

If I keep my head and play this right, this is my retirement plan. Sifting through the carnage this week is serious, important, and worthwhile. The broad market is resetting to early 2019 only, potentially, so not a catastrophic situation. But certain names will be well below justified levels. Have to find them.

Play I'm looking for: those making money on the oil spread. ie, benefit from the low input cost, but not suffer on the output end for whatever reason.

Trading resuming in 2 mins.

[oldno7]

watching F

[oldno7]

not getting in a hurry.

I will be buying mutual funds as we drop.

Most indice based are good deals here,imo

[dougr]

Clawing back, good sign. Wiser heads are prevailing at the moment. Still an entire day to go and news for the market to digest.

This could mark a bottom on the whole virus hysteria, if losses are limited after a terrible news weekend. I'm picking through names. I prefer individual names to broad funds.

[oldno7]

24,174 has to hold or we go 23,000

[oldno7]

bounced off 24,173

[oldno7]

This daily rate of decline from the highs, exceeds 1929

Why I mentioned history on the first decline.

I sincerely hope that rate declines.

First leg in 1929 declined 49%.

I'm not saying a crash is inevitable, just that so far it's decline is historic.

[oldno7]

bounced off 24,173

And support becomes resistance.

Stuck in that area for the time being.

[oldno7]

bounced off 24,173

200 point bounce, so far

[oldno7]

Interesting stocks that might benefit from current events.

AOBC
RGR
VSTO

I bought some VSTO--I like it best of the 3

[oldno7]

bounced off 24,173

rallied 500 points off this support level, retesting it now.

[dougr]

Normally with reduced oil prices, input costs for chemical manufacturers fall and their stocks rally accordingly. But we're not seeing that today. Dow, DuPont, and others. Either unjustified collateral damage, or slack demand for end products, or flattening of the margin curve for their product in general. It's a massacre of some big names.

94188

[rockgremlin]

Normally with reduced oil prices, input costs for chemical manufacturers fall and their stocks rally accordingly. But we're not seeing that today. Dow, DuPont, and others. Either unjustified collateral damage, or slack demand for end products, or flattening of the margin curve for their product in general. It's a massacre of some big names.

94188


Yep the same thing is observed with gold stocks. Under normal circumstances, gold stocks like Barrick and Newmont are viewed as a safe haven and will rally pretty hard during times where most other discretionary stocks struggle. But we're not seeing that today.

Barrick is currently down -4.5%, and Newmont is down -7% as they are getting massacred along with the rest. :ne_nau:

[dougr]

Last hour is important. If this selloff continues, -2000 now, into the close, tomorrow is likely to be terrible.

[dougr]

A 6,000 point drop in the Dow in one week?

Have you bought a 5 year supply of toilet paper yet?

Speaking of which, I actually tallied my on-hand total last night. I have 26 rolls! I bought a Costco 30 pack about a month ago unrelated to all this, just timing. So I'm set!

[rockgremlin]

Soooo...down 2,000 today, down another 2,000 tomorrow puts us at 21,800. At that pace we could land somewhere around 16,000 - 19,000 by Friday.


At which point, next week has to give a reprieve or we're flirting with 10,000 -- a full 2/3 drop.

[dougr]

Interesting stocks that might benefit from current events.

AOBC
RGR
VSTO

I bought some VSTO--I like it best of the 3

I don't know how to play a virus fear. Consumer discretionary spending, which the above would seem to benefit from, will get whacked if the media relentlessly plays fear up. Which is their goal. We have to keep in mind, we have half the country and 95% of the media pushing the market down, trying to induce as much economic chaos as possible. This isn't a normal correction scenario. Unless that is your idea? Arms plays on doomsday.

[dougr]

Soooo...down 2,000 today, down another 2,000 tomorrow puts us at 21,800. At that pace we could land somewhere around 16,000 - 19,000 by Friday.

It is possible and would return the market to historic norms.

94190

[oldno7]

I don't know how to play a virus fear. Consumer discretionary spending, which the above would seem to benefit from, will get whacked if the media relentlessly plays fear up. Which is their goal. We have to keep in mind, we have half the country and 95% of the media pushing the market down, trying to induce as much economic chaos as possible. This isn't a normal correction scenario. Unless that is your idea? Arms plays on doomsday.

Pretty much beats the "crap" outa toilet paper futures.

VSTO is holding steady.

discretionary is in the eye of the holder.

[dougr]

Mercifully won't close down 2000. Psychological barriers are important characteristics of fear driven bear action.

^ Prediction

[dougr]

Pretty much beats the "crap" outa toilet paper futures.

VSTO is holding steady.

discretionary is in the eye of the holder.

What is VSTO's mainstay biz?

[oldno7]

What is VSTO's mainstay biz?

ammo, bullet components, outdoor gear.

camp chef,cheep ass riflescopes, biking gear, etc, etc

[oldno7]

Click brands

https://vistaoutdoor.com/

[rockgremlin]

MLPA closes down 29.8% :eek2::eek2:

Tough to pick a winner amidst the carnage. Even CODX, a Utah company researching a Coronavirus vaccine closed down 24% today.

[dougr]

Mercifully won't close down 2000. Psychological barriers are important characteristics of fear driven bear action.

^ Prediction

Well, no. Bad omen. We had a 500 point rally from approx -2150 to -1650 in about 60 mins, but the last 20 or 30 gave up approx 400 to close -2013. Lot of people coming home tonight who weren't seeing the signs last night and didn't expect this will be spooked. I expect the momentum into the close to continue in the morning, with the added downdraft of retail investor selling, on top of the added psych blow of "2000" the media will gladly emphasize tonight.

[dougr]

The top losers are all energy, as you'd expect. Breathtaking losses.

94191

[rockgremlin]

^^^Wow!! Those are staggering losses!! :eek2:

Several of these won't survive, and will eventually succumb to bankruptcy or buyout.

[BasinCruiser]

I just want to know which TP and hand sanitizer manufacturer to buy stocks in.

[BasinCruiser]

And just like that, Obama isn’t claiming any responsibility for the stock market. :ne_nau:


94192


https://babylonbee.com/news/obama-walks-back-comments-about-being-responsible-for-the-stock-market

[rockgremlin]

I just want to know which TP and hand sanitizer manufacturer to buy stocks in.


Kimberly-Clark (KMB) $141.32, -3.51%

Proctor & Gamble (PG) $116.06, -4.60%

Costco (COST) $301.98, -3.01%

[dougrz]

I just want to know which TP and hand sanitizer manufacturer to buy stocks in.TP is Koch Bros (private), P&G, and KMB.

Purell brand hand san is privately held. Makes of rubbing alcohol, I'm unable to determine quickly. Might be too common and distributed to track.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200309/ff0e12cc98c43dbd2420d4977b958d3b.jpg

[oldno7]

"I get nervous when people get greedy; I get greedy when people get nervous." Warren Buffett

[oldno7]

I wanted to buy mountain house but it appears a non public company.

[rockgremlin]

"I get nervous when people get greedy; I get greedy when people get nervous." Warren Buffett


Beautiful quote.

And there's a lot of nervous folks out there right now...

[twotimer]

watching FIndeed, so am I. Haven't bought any yet, but I'm going to. It's Ford for those of you that may be wondering.

[dougr]

https://www.laredopetro.com/news-and-events/events-and-presentations/corporate-presentations/february-2020-corporate-presentation.aspx

LPI, whacked to sub-$1. But I'm seeing no debt coming due until 2023, and a large % of sales hedged. Potential name to rally.

Pages 17 and 18.

94197
94198

[dougr]

http://www.parsleyenergy.com/investors/events-and-presentations/default.aspx

PE, whacked 70% YTD. Pages 14, 17, and 25. Minimal near term debt, decent % hedged at around $45/bbl by my estimates. Not sure if I'll take a nibble on either of these, but I'll certainly watch them to see if my hunch plays out over the next several months.

Both of these plays are only hedged through end of 2020. I wouldn't expect Saudi Arabia and Russia to be able to keep the price war going that long, both need money. But who knows.

94199
94200
94201

[dougrz]

Futures pointing to decent open. Some good news out of Wuhan. Dollar rallying vs the Yen specifically.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200310/42ca607359599bc1505433c0cf4d5c78.jpghttps://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200310/a3bb625badf6c4a25179b04ae9138827.jpg

[dougrz]

https://www.laredopetro.com/news-and-events/events-and-presentations/corporate-presentations/february-2020-corporate-presentation.aspx

LPI, whacked to sub-$1. But I'm seeing no debt coming due until 2023, and a large % of sales hedged. Potential name to rally.

+110% today.

The market is looking for manageable debt in oil, believing bankruptcies and consolidation are coming. Sadly a good chance this marks the beginning of the end for small US shale as the dominant producer in the world. Not because of prices alone, but the boom-bust cycle potentially twice happening is going to make financing awfully hard (read: expensive) to drum up for a third cycle.

For lenders, when the threat of Saudi pumping and dumping on a whim exists and has now happened twice, it's no longer just a threat.

[dougrz]

http://www.parsleyenergy.com/investors/events-and-presentations/default.aspx

PE, whacked 70% YTD. Pages 14, 17, and 25. Minimal near term debt, decent % hedged at around $45/bbl by my estimates.

Modest +13% today.

[dougr]

Wed looks like -500 on the open.

94207

[dougrz]

Corona hysteria is spreading. More rate cuts, giant tax and spend deal from Congress in the works, even more upped pumping from the Saudis announced today, Olympics cancellation on the table, larger lockdown in Italy.

1/2 the country and the media want the market to crash further. It will crash further.

[oldno7]

1/2 the country and the media want the market to crash further. It will crash further.

This is more likely than not.

In the end it might actually help Trump.

Past Presidents would have thrown there hands in the air, some might have even wondered what magic wand someone might have.

That magic wand is a complete understanding of business and capitalism.

Trump won't let the economy tank like the dems and fake news are doing to the stock market.

The underlying basics are still sound and strong.

GDP rose in 2019, over 2018.

Job numbers keep gaining and unemployment keeps dropping.

The markets are on a historic 11 year bull run.

It was to be expected to have a correction, a historic one at that.(in terms of % of daily decline)

It would be easy to turn bearish here but Trump is the kicker--he has a magic wand...

I would venture a guess and only a guess that with this historic drop may come a historic recovery.

This President is active and knowledgeable about the free markets, he doesn't throw his hands in the air and say get used to it, jobs aren't coming back.

[oldno7]

-800ish to open

[rockgremlin]

Today's carnage:

DJIA
94208


S&P 500
94209

[dougrz]

Tomorrow shaping up for -1000. I do believe we'll hit 20k soon.

Bottom is hard to call. No broad selloff is normal and predictable, but this one especially so. My gut tells me we're going to 15k. Just a Shiller PE call, really, as the multiple will be on greatly reduced earnings.

Remember, it's not what you think will happen, it's what everyone else thinks will happen that matters.

[rockgremlin]

I think it goes to 21,000. Maybe lower.

This is full panic selling right now. No end in sight.

Nostra-gremlin

This prediction was made on 2/25, and the panic selling has only intensified.

[dougrz]

Nostra-gremlin

This prediction was made on 2/25, and the panic selling has only intensified.Give that boy a cee-gar.

[oldno7]

-1500, so far this morning

[oldno7]

and dropping

[oldno7]

I mentioned this once before.

Historic, daily rate of decline;

1929---.67%
2020--.96%(as of 3-11

[oldno7]

first circuit breaker

[dougrz]

Going to get very ugly. We haven't scratched the surface on a societal lockdown to the level of Italy's. More shoes to drop. I suspect MLB delaying the season start for a few months is next. Then mass college campus closings. Etc

The drip of news is worse for the market, vs all shoes on one day.

I'm watching bank preferred shares. For example, BML-L, BML-H, etc. In the 2008 crisis they were rocked, to low single digits in many cases. I'll start getting interested in the mid teens.

20k by tomorrow I'd think is reasonable. I see no reason for any kind of rally.

[dougrz]

MLB suspension is in. Next will be the end of the school year nationwide.

Level of fear selling to accelerate tomorrow.

[rockgremlin]

So what's the verdict? Another -2,100 day tomorrow?

That would get us to the low 19,000's...

[accadacca]

Who is ready to buy big? When does it hit the bottom?

[dougr]

^ I'm not ready. We need to see capitulation. When you personally are ready to say, "Geeze, maybe things will not return to normal any time soon," sick to your stomach, I will not buy, maybe never again, it's over, country and markets are potentially finished-- that's the low. At least in terms of index buying. I will stick pick off names that seem too cheap. Say food, the bank preferreds, or some bond CEFs that sell off well below NAV. Just throwing food names out: ADM, BG, CAG, TSN. Muni CEF names, looking for discounts to NAV of 20% or 25%: MUC, MYC, VTV, and others.

There are too many big negatives. 1, the shutting down of society and economic activity. 2, the oil shock, since we're now a net exporter with the largest production in the world. 3, a media and political party seeking to damage the economy. 4, fear of a virus is a different level from losing some money.

Long term risk has ratcheted up as well. The Dems are seeking to enrich govt and increase its power. Which will dampen long term economic dynamism. Biden's chances improve every day as well.

Ugly time. Just a month ago Sanders was sailing and things looked very good. Not now.

[dougr]

So what's the verdict? Another -2,100 day tomorrow?

That would get us to the low 19,000's...

Overnights will dictate. If the Fed's announced massive purchases do not effect some sort of rally, we're going to see a record 10%+ fall tomorrow I think. When an emergency rescue fails, despair deepens. We'll be in the 18's.

I know I posted on Sunday night 20k by Fri, but below 20k is a shock even to me. Stunning times.

[dougr]

Oil futures on Sunday afternoon are indicating at 25%+ drop in oil prices Monday.

Then add Italy's partial lockdown order this weekend. We might see 20k DJIA by the end of this week. Whether any is justified doesn't matter.


A 6,000 point drop in the Dow in one week?

Have you bought a 5 year supply of toilet paper yet?

I don't want the cigar and I don't want a pat on the back. I'm sick about all this. Profoundly damaging setup for the country going forward.

[oldno7]

I think there are good odds we rally tomorrow off the fed Trillion.(didn't hold today)

Monday, after a weekend of higher numbers of cases---continue down...

Make no mistake--this is not a bear market--it's much, much worse.

I put a bit more into funds today, a 30% discount.

I'll continue to the low.

[dougrz]

I think there are good odds we rally tomorrow off the fed Trillion.(didn't hold today)

So far not. Futures off 1%.

In the afterhours:

AAPL -3, MSFT -2, GM -2. Big oils holding.

The idea of the Fed pumping liquidity isn't going to help, imo. This isn't a liquidity crisis like 2008. There is enough money floating around. It's just people don't want to put it anywhere at the moment.

[twotimer]

Who is ready to buy big? When does it hit the bottom?I am...and this time I won't be nearly as conservative as I was in March of '09. I've know for two years that this was going to happen. People are cashing in big time and when things level out, they'll buy back in big time.

In '09 there were a lot of concerns...a new prez was promising to "transform the country" (whatever that meant?), the mortgage crisis was unprecedented and the media hyped it as the New Depression. This time, the economy is in great shape, the pro biz prez is virtually assured re-election and the media hype is recognized for what it is.

Just waiting....when the overnight futures start looking better then it'll be time to bite off some chunks. Thing is, you don't need to be a rocket scientist to get in on this market...the big Blue Chips can be bought at steep discount.

I buy and sell thru Charles Schwab...it's cheap, easy and they do a fine job.

[dougrz]

I am...and this time I won't be nearly as conservative as I was in March of '09. I've know for two years that this was going to happen. People are cashing in big time and when things level out, they'll buy back in big time.

In '09 there were a lot of concerns...

Very reasonable take and you'll do fine. It's not necessary to buy at the absolute bottom to do well. 2008 was an actual financial crisis, yes. This is a fear induced, damage to earnings crisis.

Just that I'm a greedy SOB and want to maximize by buying at the bottom.

[twotimer]

Just that I'm a greedy SOB and want to maximize by buying at the bottom.Hey man, I'm GREEDY TOO!! oh yeah.

I reckon this one is going to have a hard bottom and won't yo-yo significantly when it starts going back up. I love it...as I considered what happened in '09 as a possibly once in a lifetime opportunity. But no, this is certainly a second time around. It's great...it's an opportunity for normal folks. Forget lousy savings rates...this is where the action is.

BTW...I like your picks and analysis...some of those are on my radar. Keepin' an eye on things!

[rockgremlin]

Morgan Stanley Recommends Buying Stocks Right Now

This bold article stands out in stark contrast from the doom and gloom.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-buy-morgan-stanley-says-start-now-fall-coronavirus-2020-3-1028991295

[dougrz]

Daily Shiller PE post.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200312/b76d0d1047373662140e8081a4756a5e.jpg

In 08/09 we crashed to a 15x multiple. Still 1/3 down from here to there. I wouldn't expect more than that. Which would be 50% down from peak.

[dougrz]

Futures bouncing between 0 and -1.5%. They've been remarkably accurate the past few days, though I didn't see what last night's numbers were in advance of today's -10%.

[oldno7]

The only problem with trying to time this low is----It may bounce up just as quick as it's dropped.

I'm a trader and have a great program for buying lows BUT----

When I market stays oversold, the accuracy is not as good.

I've started scaling back in, the low should be between here at -30% and -50%

We are in un charted territory, the market has NEVER dropped this fast, EVER.

I get the feeling that when the fear subsides, we will be in un charted territory again, on a rally.

Don't miss the rally.

THey all say buy the dips but they all are full of schiff, no one knows how, so unless you can profit from bold claims, making them is silly.

[rockgremlin]

Futures bouncing between 0 and -1.5%. They've been remarkably accurate the past few days, though I didn't see what last night's numbers were in advance of today's -10%.

If I recall, futures were around -7% before today's carnage.

The fact that it's only down 0 - 1.5% is an encouraging sign.

I'm reiterating that I believe the low to be somewhere between 15,000 to 19,000. (Yes, I know it's silly). :mrgreen:

[dougrz]

If I recall, futures were around -7% before today's carnage.

The fact that it's only down 0 - 1.5% is an encouraging sign.

I'm reiterating that I believe the low to be somewhere between 15,000 to 19,000. (Yes, I know it's silly). :mrgreen:-3% now (700 pts), so looking poor, especially on the "up to $1.5T" Fed repo announcement.

My call is around 15k, 50%. Your numbers aren't silly. Standard historical market valuation aside from the virus is 15k. But I'll still be picking up certain things along the way. I'm leaning food tomorrow. Conagra, Tyson, etc. I'll be studying earnings, debt, and historical metrics tonight.

[rockgremlin]

Decent article here exploring possible lows using technical cues.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/here-are-some-of-the-dows-key-downside-chart-points-to-watch-2020-03-11?mod=ampfoot_mostpop

Looks like the next target is around 20,745, followed by 18,050.

[dougrz]

Good link, thanks. I'm looking at the refiners, like PSX and VLO, who normally do well with low input oil costs, as they work the spread. Not sure why they've been slaughtered (55 and 60% here) as well.

[dougr]

Futures up 3%. Probably on the news of Bank of Japan buying.

[rockgremlin]

Looks like Friday the 13th will open over 300 points higher. Hopefully we'll get a reprieve before sliding any further. :2thumbs:

[dougr]

I've lost interest in food plays. Just not cheap enough to grab me. Unfortunately, the really enticing plays are all energy. I've got enough in energy and won't risk more concentration there.

I did put in a limit order for BML-G at $17.50, a Bank of America preferred floating rate. It's had some weird price action, yesterday around noon trading down to $17.85 in several transactions, and then trading up to $20.46 a few hours later. Thin float sometimes leads to odd pricing. Going to try to draw the ask down.

It has a floor yield of 3% on par of $25, and yields 4.3% at $17.50. No way will banks be "allowed" to go under, and these preferreds are therefore considered extremely safe. So the yield is decent for such safety. When calm returns, it, and the other similar BofA preferreds, should work their way back to $21 to $23 or so. This one less since most others have a floor of 4% on par.

These preferreds were single digit worthless in the 08 crash and rallied hard over the years. Were incredibly lucrative to be in. I keep going back to them when they sell off into the teens.

94218
94219

[oldno7]

Bought and sold VSTO a number of times in the last week.

It's been a great producer.

Was up over 8% yesterday while the dow crashed.

Up big again early this morning.

For a $5 stock it has wide daily swings.

[oldno7]

Just made another 7.6% on VSTO

In 1 1/2 hrs

[dougr]

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2020/01/31/whatever-theyre-doing-its-not-investment

That is the finest strategic market analysis I've ever read. In 12 years of hard core investing. I highly recommend reading that.

[dougr]

Just made another 7.6% on VSTO

In 1 1/2 hrs

Are you trading or holding?

[oldno7]

Are you trading or holding?

I hold mutual funds ( I have buy and sell signals for them)

I trade individual stocks, don't like holding over night but do on occassion.

[Iceaxe]

I just dumped $30k into stocks this morning.... if that doesn't cause the stock market to tank nothing will....

:roflol: :roflol: :roflol:

But low... Sell high....

[dougrz]

I just dumped $30k into stocks this morning.... if that doesn't cause the stock market to tank nothing will....

:roflol: :roflol: :roflol:

But low... Sell high....Hilarious, good one. Hell of a morning to pick- the "Midaice touch" we'll call it.

Massive rally during Trump's press conference late. It was a Tour de Force, marshalling private industry and waiving laws. Market loved it. Could mark the low.

Or an explosion in spreading could make it a pause. No idea.

[rockgremlin]

Curious what Monday will bring. I could see it either being an extension of today's late rally or a pullback en route to the sub-20,000 range mid week.

It'll probably be the latter since Ice dropped a bunch of cash into the market. :mrgreen:

[oldno7]

30,000 by July

[Iceaxe]

30,000 by July

I predicted when this first began that we'll be back over 28,000 by September and I'm still sticking to that.

FWIW - This is killing some companies like travel and is a bonanza to others like supermarkets.

[twotimer]

I just dumped $30k into stocks this morning.... if that doesn't cause the stock market to tank nothing will....

:roflol: :roflol: :roflol:

But low... Sell high....Nice move...I'm going to put more than three times that amount in, maybe more.

I've got a list and will also be adding to it this weekend. If the futures look good very early Monday morning then I'll pull the trigger. I'll be investing in 10-15 stocks.

My strategy is to buy and hold...worked very well for me from '09-'15. I set a target price for each one when I'll consider selling...in other words, if I buy a stock at $5 and it rises to $8 I'll take a hard look at it...so some of these that I buy may only be in my portfolio for a week, others maybe a year or more.

There's a whole lot to choose from now...I would encourage even those who've never done this kind of thing to move some money to a brokerage house (like Schwab) and just go for it...start small if you're nervous, a few hundred or a few thousand. Buy and sell one or two stocks just to get the hang of it. Unless a really stupid move is made, you'll earn a lot more on that money than if it was sitting in a bank. MANY major companies are at a big discount right now...Wells Fargo, for example.

I believe as well that the market will shoot back up by thousands of points in the coming months...a lot of this easy money will dry up.

[dougrz]

You all are gutsier than I am. I will not put large amounts in for quite some time. Just too much risk of large numbers of infections driving fear higher, imo.

You might be rewarded handsomely making a bottom call now. I still suspect we're going 15k-ish on the djia.

[dougrz]

Every day brings news and thoughts. My current thinking is, fear and lockdown continues.

Until we see tens of thousands of cases and the (absolutely coming) tens of thousands of recoveries, fear will rise. As the trickle of recovery stories becomes a flood, the tide will turn.

Numbers out of Open Table are sobering. Massive drop off in restaurant traffic. We might see a domestic travel lockdown, which is going to bash us into a deep contraction for at least a quarter. I think we bottom in 4 to 6 weeks.

[BasinCruiser]

94241

[twotimer]

You all are gutsier than I am. I will not put large amounts in for quite some time. Just too much risk of large numbers of infections driving fear higher, imo.

You might be rewarded handsomely making a bottom call now. I still suspect we're going 15k-ish on the djia.Nah...I'll make the bottom call when I feel the time is right. It might be this Monday morning, or it could be weeks from now before I drop a single dime.

I was working today listening to the radio...a couple dudes that have a "market watch" program on Saturday mornings for an hour. They're financial advisors promoting their business but have some pretty good insights when they venture off script. One of them pointed out that when the market has a bad Monday, it ALWAYS rebounds on Tuesday.

Interesting to see what the next few weeks brings...but I'll tell you what, there's a lot of folks that are just itching to buy in, and when they do, I think it'll start moving upward again. I think it'll happen quick, too...like, within a week the money coming back in like that this big slide will be over.

[dougrz]

but I'll tell you what, there's a lot of folks that are just itching to buy in, and when they do, I think it'll start moving upward again. I think it'll happen quick, too...like, within a week the money coming back in like that this big slide will be over.

That's a key reason to not sell if you've already suffered losses. You easily miss the very early sharp updraft on recovery. Missing those gains greatly reduces your overall returns.

I'm still nibbling. I'll grab some small share counts next week.

[accadacca]

I’ve got a feeling it will come back quick. The economy had an awful lot of momentum, confidence and traction. It won’t be easy to keep it down. This is just my senses and gut feeling. Also my hope too.

"Buy when there's blood in the streets." -Warren Buffet

[twotimer]

"Buy when there's blood in the streets." -Warren Buffet#Fart#...it was actually Baron Rothschild that came up with that one...many years ago.

Quite a coincidence that Trump's youngest in named Baron, eh?

Here's a good quote from Mr. Buffett..."It takes 20 years to build a good reputation and only 5 minutes to ruin it."

Great advice, hard to follow.

[Iceaxe]

You all are gutsier than I am.

No shit! I got a pair of huge brass balls... if you listen carefully you can even hear them clanking when I walk.

ROFLMAO



Climb-Utah.com

[dougrz]

Wow. Just wow. The Fed announced here on Sunday rates being slashed to 0%.

I don't know how the market will react. The obvious is serious juice to stocks. But this is also a psychological crisis, and such a move could be viewed as confirmation that serious trouble is coming.

What a stunning week. Am watching the futures.

Edit: initial futures action is -1%. Boy, this week could be brutal if this final bazooka shot doesn't do anything.

Edit 2:. Futures slowly bleeding.

Edit 3: Initial headlines were zero. Actual is 0 to 0.25%. 100 basis point cut.

[dougrz]

Futures are decidedly down, -4.5% currently. We're headed way, way low. This will be a week of historic losses looks like.

Edit: just rampant fear being discussed in investing circles. More closures, more alerts. The market will not respond to normal economic inputs. Just no telling what will happen. Keep your head and hunt out badly oversold names.

[dougrz]

CO alert this afternoon.

This is only going to accelerate. Think how the public is going to behave, the markets will follow.

This is going to be a killer low to buy, just have to be patient.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200315/9a1f2b6ed0675120041aea50a771ac4c.jpg

[rockgremlin]

More outstanding buying opportunities coming tomorrow. :2thumbs:

[dougrz]

More outstanding buying opportunities coming tomorrow. :2thumbs:I still think we're not at maximum panic. That will come about a week or two into widespread lockdowns. When we start hearing, "Will life ever return to normal?" "This virus will just keep coming back each year, life as we know it is done."

Or put it this way. When you personally start getting worried, that's the bottom. I have a few key people I monitor. When they finally break and get a bit worried and can't stomach something, bottom is in.

[rockgremlin]

Don't think I'm not battling the panic to a certain extent. To be honest, if we saw the bottom last week I would've been disappointed. I'm planning on a further drop, so news of a further drop is a welcomed sight.

[dougrz]

Don't think I'm not battling the panic to a certain extent. To be honest, if we saw the bottom last week I would've been disappointed. I'm planning on a further drop, so news of a further drop is a welcomed sight.To compound this, we have two panics. Market and virus. I have zero personal health virus panic and never will, unless it mutates and grows to a 25% mortality rate. Market panic, I will get there eventually.

Which panic are you talking about having a bit of?

[rockgremlin]

To compound this, we have two panics. Market and virus. I have zero personal health virus panic and never will, unless it mutates and grows to a 25% mortality rate. Market panic, I will get there eventually.

Which panic are you talking about having a bit of?

I'm not worried about the virus from a personal health standpoint. Even if I contract Covid I'm young and in good health and should pull out just fine.

The market panic is what I'm mostly concerned with. I just remind myself that deep market drops snap back just as fast in most cases. Panic selling is almost always a very bad idea.

[dougrz]

Pre market action is 9 to 13% down across various names. Looking like -2300 on the open. Futures were suspended last night it appears, so no hard opening number.

[oldno7]

-2500 here

opening may be interesting

[twotimer]

The virus is no big deal...I think we've all been watching too many zombie movies. BTW, "Zombieland Double Tap" was pretty funny.

Everybody cashin' in on all that money that piled up in the last 10 years. I reckon they'll be a whole bunch of new cars, trucks and toys being bought this summer. Remodel projects, too.

Two or three weeks before everyone gets itching to go back to work. I can't see it going on much longer than that.

[dougrz]

Indeed, -2470 and falling. Word of a domestic air travel shutdown on the table.

15k is coming based on the current path of last night's CDC call for gatherings of 50+ to stop for 8 weeks. That's a long time. If summer doesn't knock this out, we're looking sub-10k in a few months on a very large economic contraction. Though I do expect warm weather to help take it out.
twotimer , consider what others in the market think. The economic damage from the actual virus pales compared to the levers being pulled. I'm afraid the media's plan to destroy, literally destroy, life as we know it before this election has worked. China is pushing our media to accelerate the carnage. We've seen that in the quick deflection of blame from China by our talking heads, with heaped condemnation of Trump.

[twotimer]

@twotimer (http://www.bogley.com/forum/member.php?u=28123) , consider what others in the market think.Sure...I reckon they're trying to decide wether or not to go with the leather interior.

Your points are considerable, but if the liberal puppet masters think this is the thing to bring down Trump...I can't see it coming to fruition. Joe Biden?...c'mon.

Another fail.

[dougr]

I'm watching the bank preferreds this morning. They've rallied a bit, actually. Which is what I expected, they're awfully safe. I was hoping for a panic sell in them, though.

Edit: take that back. I'm not seeing trades this morning yet. Which makes sense since the first circuit breaker tripped on opening.

[dougrz]

Put in a limit order for BML-H at $17.50. Trading at 18.10 currently.

[oldno7]

VSTO on fire---again.

Been a great fear stock

[dougrz]

VSTO on fire---again.

Been a great fear stockIt has. I didn't expect a gun run from this. I thought it would be food only. I don't anticipate mass societal chaos and rioting and looting. We're going the reverse: mass shut ins and lack of activity.

But the psychology of fear apparently encompasses all modes of stockpiling. We might start to hear of water pressures dropping as people start filling doomsday cisterns?

[oldno7]

Mathematically--support in the dow is 20,379.(hit today--20,387, basically dead on)

That comes from a 2017 low.

Last thursday I was 85% back in the indices(mutual fund)

After today--I'll be 90%

Not too worried one way or the other.

Trading stocks during this drop has been good, mostly VSTO and CGC

[dougrz]

I'd normally look to technicals as well, and that's bread and butter for the options trading I do.

I can't get out from under this fact: the media and silicon valley want this. They want maximum chaos, in society and the markets. This isn't solely market dynamics, and consequently technicals, at play.

Still harping on my conspiracies, yes.

[oldno7]

^^^^Technicals rule a calm market--no doubt.

They have very much been in play on this decline despite the hysteria.

Fibonacci alone has hit most every support and resistance area.

[oldno7]

It has. I didn't expect a gun run from this. I thought it would be food only. I don't anticipate mass societal chaos and rioting and looting. We're going the reverse: mass shut ins and lack of activity.

But the psychology of fear apparently encompasses all modes of stockpiling. We might start to hear of water pressures dropping as people start filling doomsday cisterns?

Not really a gun run.(right wing outdoors:mrgreen:)

Very similar to the obama buying cycle.

Fear of the unknown

[oldno7]

On the other hand--IF-- I had a semi load of TP in my garage, I'd be needing bullets to defend the TP fort.

So theres that....

[dougrz]

I'm buying into some insurers. Hellish losses in that sector. It's a combo, I'd guess, of loss of underlying book value in their stock holdings, but possibly some fear of liabilities. Which aren't going to happen with those tilted toward life insurance. There will not be mass casualties from this, it's absurd.

[oldno7]

I had a very good, longer term trade in precious metals last fall.

It's getting VERY close to that time to buy--again.

[dougrz]

Which metals? I had played silver and palladium in 08/09 for some huge gains.

[dougr]

Which metals? I had played silver and palladium in 08/09 for some huge gains.

Wow, silver at $13. Palladium peaked around $2750 is now $1600 ish. Double wow. I had ridden silver from maybe $16 to $39 back in the day, and palladium from $250 to $800 or so.

[oldno7]

Which metals? I had played silver and palladium in 08/09 for some huge gains.

Watching Gold but I think most will be a good play.

[dougr]

Put in a limit order for BML-H at $17.50. Trading at 18.10 currently.

I lowered my limit to $16.10 seeing some weakness. Indeed we're at $17.45 now, trying to draw it down. Low volume on this type of issue, it's possible to draw prices your way.

[dougr]

I'm looking at some bank preferreds that sell over the bond desk as well. Unlike the above bank preferred issues that trade as a stock.

CUSIP 172967mk4 is one, a Citi issuance. Prospectus https://www.citigroup.com/citi/fixedincome/data/CitiJan012320PreferredStockSeriesV.pdf?ieNocache=1 70

Currently looks around 86c on the $, which gives a yield of 100*4.7/86= 5.5%.

The view is, if it gets worse, these will not suffer as much as plain equities, being higher seniority and from a too-big-to-fail name. If things get better, these offer a muted return of back to par, so approx 15% from here, while collecting the yield. If we get to the level of banks being ordered to suspend their divi, preferreds and hybrids would probably not be so covered.

[oldno7]

Watching Gold but I think most will be a good play.


HUI up nicely today.

[dougr]

With word coming out of the White House briefing of an August timeline according to models, we've got a long way to go.

[dougr]

HUI up nicely today.

HUI?

[oldno7]

HUI?


The NYSE Arca Gold BUGS Index is a modified equal dollar weighted index of companies involved in gold mining. BUGS stands for Basket of Unhedged Gold Stocks. It is also referred to by its ticker symbol "HUI". The HUI Index and Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philadelphia_Gold_and_Silver_Index) (XAU) are the two most watched gold indices on the market. The main difference between them is that the HUI Index takes into account only gold mining stocks whereas the XAU Index includes both gold and silver producers.[1] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HUI_Gold_Index#cite_note-Sunshine_Profits-1) The Gold BUGS Index was designed to provide significant exposure to near term movements in gold prices by including companies that do not hedge their gold production beyond 1.5 years. The HUI Index was developed with a base value of 200.00 as of March 15, 1996. The NYSE Arca Gold BUGS Index currently consists of 15 of the largest and most widely held public gold production companies.[2] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HUI_Gold_Index#cite_note-2) Since bottoming in late 2000, HUI went on to be the top-performing US stock sector of the decade, rising by about 1600%.[3] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HUI_Gold_Index#cite_note-3)

[twotimer]

The NYSE Arca Gold BUGS Index is a modified equal dollar weighted index of companies involved in gold mining. BUGS stands for Basket of Unhedged Gold Stocks. It is also referred to by its ticker symbol "HUI". The HUI Index and Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philadelphia_Gold_and_Silver_Index) (XAU) are the two most watched gold indices on the market. The main difference between them is that the HUI Index takes into account only gold mining stocks whereas the XAU Index includes both gold and silver producers.[1] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HUI_Gold_Index#cite_note-Sunshine_Profits-1) The Gold BUGS Index was designed to provide significant exposure to near term movements in gold prices by including companies that do not hedge their gold production beyond 1.5 years. The HUI Index was developed with a base value of 200.00 as of March 15, 1996. The NYSE Arca Gold BUGS Index currently consists of 15 of the largest and most widely held public gold production companies.[2] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HUI_Gold_Index#cite_note-2) Since bottoming in late 2000, HUI went on to be the top-performing US stock sector of the decade, rising by about 1600%.[3] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HUI_Gold_Index#cite_note-3)That's an excellent stock...like a mutual fund of gold companies. Funny how it went up today considering the price of not only gold, but other metals is trending down. I just read some opinions on that...concern that governments around the world may sell off portions of their gold reserves to cover the virus cost, investors selling their gold to cover losses form other things.

Also, could be that investors are selling their gold to raise more cash for buying stock, eh? Who knows...hard to tell. But this is a great looking stock anyway...if I'm going to invest in gold this is probably the way to do it. I'll be keeping an eye on this one. Pricey, but the home of this has been between $250-$300.

[dougrz]

The [B]NYSE Arca Gold BUGS Index is a modified equal dollar weighted index of companies involved in gold mining.

Ah, I see. I don't follow gold, but when I check, it's usually GDX for the miners and a Kitco price chart for physical.

Since HUI is an index, it's likely .HUI or ^HUI on whatever financial site.

[oldno7]

Ah, I see. I don't follow gold, but when I check, it's usually GDX for the miners and a Kitco price chart for physical.

Since HUI is an index, it's likely .HUI or ^HUI on whatever financial site.

I mostly use TD and HUI works on it.

[oldno7]

Bought VSTO yesterday morning, sold at about 8:30--+40% trade

Bought again yesterday afternoon, looking to sell this morning.

[oldno7]

That's an excellent stock...like a mutual fund of gold companies. Funny how it went up today considering the price of not only gold, but other metals is trending down. I just read some opinions on that...concern that governments around the world may sell off portions of their gold reserves to cover the virus cost, investors selling their gold to cover losses form other things.

Also, could be that investors are selling their gold to raise more cash for buying stock, eh? Who knows...hard to tell. But this is a great looking stock anyway...if I'm going to invest in gold this is probably the way to do it. I'll be keeping an eye on this one. Pricey, but the home of this has been between $250-$300.


Yesterdays rally was impressive but I wasn't in (HUI)

I need a breakout below 131.12

Then I'll be looking to buy.

Hopefully in the 114-117 range

[oldno7]

Bought VSTO yesterday morning, sold at about 8:30--+40% trade

Bought again yesterday afternoon, looking to sell this morning.

Out--+4.5% on 1/2