Stocks

[dougrz]

MLB suspension is in. Next will be the end of the school year nationwide.

Level of fear selling to accelerate tomorrow.

[rockgremlin]

So what's the verdict? Another -2,100 day tomorrow?

That would get us to the low 19,000's...

[accadacca]

Who is ready to buy big? When does it hit the bottom?

[dougr]

^ I'm not ready. We need to see capitulation. When you personally are ready to say, "Geeze, maybe things will not return to normal any time soon," sick to your stomach, I will not buy, maybe never again, it's over, country and markets are potentially finished-- that's the low. At least in terms of index buying. I will stick pick off names that seem too cheap. Say food, the bank preferreds, or some bond CEFs that sell off well below NAV. Just throwing food names out: ADM, BG, CAG, TSN. Muni CEF names, looking for discounts to NAV of 20% or 25%: MUC, MYC, VTV, and others.

There are too many big negatives. 1, the shutting down of society and economic activity. 2, the oil shock, since we're now a net exporter with the largest production in the world. 3, a media and political party seeking to damage the economy. 4, fear of a virus is a different level from losing some money.

Long term risk has ratcheted up as well. The Dems are seeking to enrich govt and increase its power. Which will dampen long term economic dynamism. Biden's chances improve every day as well.

Ugly time. Just a month ago Sanders was sailing and things looked very good. Not now.

[dougr]

So what's the verdict? Another -2,100 day tomorrow?

That would get us to the low 19,000's...

Overnights will dictate. If the Fed's announced massive purchases do not effect some sort of rally, we're going to see a record 10%+ fall tomorrow I think. When an emergency rescue fails, despair deepens. We'll be in the 18's.

I know I posted on Sunday night 20k by Fri, but below 20k is a shock even to me. Stunning times.

[dougr]

Oil futures on Sunday afternoon are indicating at 25%+ drop in oil prices Monday.

Then add Italy's partial lockdown order this weekend. We might see 20k DJIA by the end of this week. Whether any is justified doesn't matter.

A 6,000 point drop in the Dow in one week?

Have you bought a 5 year supply of toilet paper yet?

I don't want the cigar and I don't want a pat on the back. I'm sick about all this. Profoundly damaging setup for the country going forward.

[oldno7]

I think there are good odds we rally tomorrow off the fed Trillion.(didn't hold today)

Monday, after a weekend of higher numbers of cases---continue down...

Make no mistake--this is not a bear market--it's much, much worse.

I put a bit more into funds today, a 30% discount.

I'll continue to the low.

[dougrz]

I think there are good odds we rally tomorrow off the fed Trillion.(didn't hold today)

So far not. Futures off 1%.

In the afterhours:

AAPL -3, MSFT -2, GM -2. Big oils holding.

The idea of the Fed pumping liquidity isn't going to help, imo. This isn't a liquidity crisis like 2008. There is enough money floating around. It's just people don't want to put it anywhere at the moment.

[twotimer]

Who is ready to buy big? When does it hit the bottom?

I am...and this time I won't be nearly as conservative as I was in March of '09. I've know for two years that this was going to happen. People are cashing in big time and when things level out, they'll buy back in big time.

In '09 there were a lot of concerns...a new prez was promising to "transform the country" (whatever that meant?), the mortgage crisis was unprecedented and the media hyped it as the New Depression. This time, the economy is in great shape, the pro biz prez is virtually assured re-election and the media hype is recognized for what it is.

Just waiting....when the overnight futures start looking better then it'll be time to bite off some chunks. Thing is, you don't need to be a rocket scientist to get in on this market...the big Blue Chips can be bought at steep discount.

I buy and sell thru Charles Schwab...it's cheap, easy and they do a fine job.

[dougrz]

I am...and this time I won't be nearly as conservative as I was in March of '09. I've know for two years that this was going to happen. People are cashing in big time and when things level out, they'll buy back in big time.

In '09 there were a lot of concerns...

Very reasonable take and you'll do fine. It's not necessary to buy at the absolute bottom to do well. 2008 was an actual financial crisis, yes. This is a fear induced, damage to earnings crisis.

Just that I'm a greedy SOB and want to maximize by buying at the bottom.

[twotimer]

Just that I'm a greedy SOB and want to maximize by buying at the bottom.

Hey man, I'm GREEDY TOO!! oh yeah.

I reckon this one is going to have a hard bottom and won't yo-yo significantly when it starts going back up. I love it...as I considered what happened in '09 as a possibly once in a lifetime opportunity. But no, this is certainly a second time around. It's great...it's an opportunity for normal folks. Forget lousy savings rates...this is where the action is.

BTW...I like your picks and analysis...some of those are on my radar. Keepin' an eye on things!

[rockgremlin]

Morgan Stanley Recommends Buying Stocks Right Now

This bold article stands out in stark contrast from the doom and gloom.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/...0-3-1028991295

[dougrz]

Daily Shiller PE post.



In 08/09 we crashed to a 15x multiple. Still 1/3 down from here to there. I wouldn't expect more than that. Which would be 50% down from peak.

[dougrz]

Futures bouncing between 0 and -1.5%. They've been remarkably accurate the past few days, though I didn't see what last night's numbers were in advance of today's -10%.

[oldno7]

The only problem with trying to time this low is----It may bounce up just as quick as it's dropped.

I'm a trader and have a great program for buying lows BUT----

When I market stays oversold, the accuracy is not as good.

I've started scaling back in, the low should be between here at -30% and -50%

We are in un charted territory, the market has NEVER dropped this fast, EVER.

I get the feeling that when the fear subsides, we will be in un charted territory again, on a rally.

Don't miss the rally.

THey all say buy the dips but they all are full of schiff, no one knows how, so unless you can profit from bold claims, making them is silly.

[rockgremlin]

Futures bouncing between 0 and -1.5%. They've been remarkably accurate the past few days, though I didn't see what last night's numbers were in advance of today's -10%.

If I recall, futures were around -7% before today's carnage.

The fact that it's only down 0 - 1.5% is an encouraging sign.

I'm reiterating that I believe the low to be somewhere between 15,000 to 19,000. (Yes, I know it's silly).

[dougrz]

If I recall, futures were around -7% before today's carnage.

The fact that it's only down 0 - 1.5% is an encouraging sign.

I'm reiterating that I believe the low to be somewhere between 15,000 to 19,000. (Yes, I know it's silly).

-3% now (700 pts), so looking poor, especially on the "up to $1.5T" Fed repo announcement.

My call is around 15k, 50%. Your numbers aren't silly. Standard historical market valuation aside from the virus is 15k. But I'll still be picking up certain things along the way. I'm leaning food tomorrow. Conagra, Tyson, etc. I'll be studying earnings, debt, and historical metrics tonight.

[rockgremlin]

Decent article here exploring possible lows using technical cues.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/he...mpfoot_mostpop

Looks like the next target is around 20,745, followed by 18,050.

[dougrz]

Good link, thanks. I'm looking at the refiners, like PSX and VLO, who normally do well with low input oil costs, as they work the spread. Not sure why they've been slaughtered (55 and 60% here) as well.

[dougr]

Futures up 3%. Probably on the news of Bank of Japan buying.