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Thread: Stocks
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12-18-2018, 06:53 AM #521
Here comes Acca with his doom and gloom.
If you look at a graph of the DOW for the last five years you'll notice that we are riding the crest of an unprecedented stock market winning streak. And all along the way we've had bumps in the road -- occasions when the media tried to paint a bleak picture of the stock market -- only to have it come storming back again.
^^^As you can see from this morning's screenshot, the market is bouncing back from those two days of -2%, as predicted.It's only "science" if it supports the narrative.
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12-18-2018 06:53 AM # ADS
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12-18-2018, 09:19 AM #522
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12-18-2018, 10:31 AM #523
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12-18-2018, 10:48 AM #524
Having just gone through the tortuous process of buying a house in this economy I would agree. Things are WAAAAY too expensive and overpriced right now. But I voiced my concerns early and often about this and I was routinely informed that the housing bubble of today is drastically different to the housing bubble of 2008. The difference being that the housing bubble of 2008 was artificially inflated ~~ much of it was realtors and brokers contributing to an artificial inflation, and then the banks willingly agreeing to offer loans to folks to obviously couldn't afford the debt. The bubble of today is created from the economics of supply and demand. The demand is sky high, but the supply on hand is very low. There just isn't a very robust supply to satisfy the current demand.
That said, I too cannot see how the status quo can be sustained. We were looking at dumpy 2 bed, 1 bath 1500 sq.ft. homes going for over $350,000. That is just insane, and it really is not sustainable. I think another big housing correction is looming.It's only "science" if it supports the narrative.
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12-18-2018, 12:16 PM #525
I think so too. I hope so because I hate the house I'm in, but I can't bring myself to pay what I'd have to to get a better one.
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12-18-2018, 01:18 PM #526
Honestly, in the housing market I don't think we will see a contraction anytime soon along the Wasatch Front. Still more people moving here than we have homes for. I doubt will see the prices rise like they have been, but nothing is going to be getting any cheaper. There is a metric shit ton of new apartment units coming on board in the next 18 months, but vacancies are still at historic lows. I have probably financed $70 million in new apartment construction in the past 24 months and will hopefully close another $20mm by the end of March. Lots of investors are finding it better to build new units than buy old buildings with cap rates so low. Eventually, they will get caught up and things will slow, but I doubt it for another 24 months at least. New home construction will probably be strong for at least that long. There just isn't that much available land anymore. I am financing a subdivision in Davis County and the lots are selling for between $140k-$180k for .5-.6 acre lots. The problem is they literally will all be able to see the Bountiful Landfill from their house, are right next to Legacy and have high voltage power lines overhead. Doesn't matter though. They will be sold out before roads are even complete.
The real issue will be if wages don't keep up, the Wasatch Front could turn into San Francisco, where people can't afford to live here.
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Post Thanks / Like - 1 Likesrockgremlin liked this post
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12-18-2018, 01:55 PM #527
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12-18-2018, 02:22 PM #528
i've been amazed at the number of people that have moved to Brigham in the last 5 years or so that commute to Salt Lake for work. I wouldn't be surprised to see more of that happening in the next 10 years the way things are going.
It sucks because I like the relative lack of crowds and light traffic here. It'll come to an end one day though.
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12-18-2018, 02:31 PM #529
We looked into Brigham City early on but decided it was too far from SLC....so we moved to North Ogden. It's pretty much just as far as Brigham City.
The dude that sold us his house moved to Far West. I couldn't do it -- the mosquitoes are too thick out there since Willard is right next door.It's only "science" if it supports the narrative.
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12-18-2018, 02:42 PM #530
15 minutes is 15 minutes. I understand. If I worked in Salt Lake, there's no way I'd live this far away. I've been spoiled. I basically have only worked 5 minutes away from home at any job I've ever had, so the thought of a long commute just kills me.
The current job is great though. I could go anywhere I want to as long as I've got a decent internet connection. That's made me look into different locations that I would never consider otherwise.
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12-18-2018, 03:09 PM #531
#FirstWorldProblems
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12-18-2018, 04:26 PM #532
BINGO!...we're experiencing the same thing her in Denver. They didn't build jack shit for 5 solid years. Our cities are going to get as thick as they can possibly get.
Prices? I think homes that cost less than 200K absolutely must show up. Starter homes. I think they'll be built out in the boondocks. There has to be a market for couples that make around 120K a year. They want to buy.
If you're single and you make less than 100K and you want to live in the city? You're screwed...insofar as buying a place.
I paid $61,000 for this condo in '93. It's worth nearly 250K right now. I bought 4 others in this complex long ago, all less than 100K. They're rentals. Can't do that now, that's for damn sure.
If I were to advise someone young, I'd say move to a mid/largish city where you can make money and buy a place for less than $175...a condo, a house...and then sit on it, one way or another. Does't take a rocket scientist, just time and having someone else pay for it.
Then again, I know some people that just rent. They've never bought and have a way of managing their money that works for them. Look up "renting vs. buying".Suddenly my feet are feet of mud
It all goes slo-mo
I don't know why I am crying
Am I suspended in Gaffa?
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12-18-2018, 08:47 PM #533
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12-19-2018, 05:08 AM #534
^^^ That's crazy. Last summer we were looking into Payson and it was hovering around $290K - $300K.
It's only "science" if it supports the narrative.
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12-19-2018, 01:43 PM #535
Stocks
Merry Christmas!!! Lowest point of the year!!!
Dow closes down 352 points after Fed hikes rates
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12-19-2018, 02:41 PM #536
Yup, there's this repeating pattern of the Dow rallying up and then falling back, rallying up and then falling back. This lack of direction occurs when neither the bears nor the bulls are in charge, and is frequently a prelude to a large pullback. I've been predicting this for a little while now. The slide will probably extend into tomorrow, and then stay down during the holidays next week as the market explores a bottom.
It's only "science" if it supports the narrative.
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12-19-2018, 04:59 PM #537
The Fed did stocks no favors today...
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12-21-2018, 04:13 PM #538
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12-21-2018, 04:21 PM #539
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Post Thanks / Like - 1 Likestwotimer liked this post
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12-21-2018, 06:33 PM #540
Ahhh...everybody's just cashing in. A whole lot of people made a ton of money in the last two years. Junior wants the GI Joe with the kung-fu grip.
Suddenly my feet are feet of mud
It all goes slo-mo
I don't know why I am crying
Am I suspended in Gaffa?
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