The Bogley Weather Report

[rockgremlin]

This is going to be a dry winter...


Last year I recall that by Thanksgiving we'd had at least 2 really good snow storms, and there was a bunch of snow on the ground almost state-wide. I can recall last Thanksgiving walking my dog in snow that went up to my knees at my sister-in-law's place in SLC.

Fast forward to this Thanksgiving -- SLC has had Zero snow...at all. A few rain showers that were here and gone within 24 hours, but that's it. And the forecast for Thanksgiving day calls for mild weather with temps in the 60's....and not a storm in sight. It's like there's a monstrous center of high pressure camped over Utah that refuses to budge - pushing all the low pressure and storm systems North into Idaho and beyond.

My prediction says the Wasatch Front will see no snow in November. And in December only two snow storms, with very little accumulation, and Christmas won't be white this year.

Hopefully I'm eating these words, but I doubt it.
@Scott P -- What does your crystal ball say?

[Scott P]

Give it time. The storm track should be pushed south as the winter progresses. Due to La Niña, it could be a fairly wet winter for Nothern Utah, but possibly a dry winter in the far south parts of the state. Places like Arizona and southern California could be hurting for precipitation for most of the winter.

There will be some cold snaps, but the coldest air should stay north and east of Utah.

The above is what usually happens in La Niña years, so unless something unusual happens, I'd expect something similar to the above.

[jman]

This is what Thankgiving afternoon looked like last year. This is from the Farmington Wetlands Preserve looking south-east towards Farmington, Centerville, and Bountiful.

Followed by dinner at Snowbird. If I recall there was less than 6" at the resort that was natural.

[uintafly]

Last year started out pretty slow too and ended up great. I've cursed us though since I finally broke down and bought some custom fit boots. I also have 2 yurt trips scheduled and I couldn't pass up the Black Friday sale at ON3P yesterday and got some new skis which I didn't need, so we are pretty much screwed on snow this year thanks to me.

For the best Utah powder forecast, check out https://opensnow.com/dailysnow/utah

[rockgremlin]

For the best Utah powder forecast, check out https://opensnow.com/dailysnow/utah

I like that link. It's like a weather report from a snow starved weatherman.

[rockgremlin]

My predictions are holding...

So far, the month of December is a bust as far as precip is concerned. Dec 3 saw a few inches drop here and there, but the storm was gone within 24 hours, and most of that snow is already melted - at least in the valleys.

This week is supposed to maintain the same pattern, with a weak system brushing through this weekend.

The air quality in SLC is smog-a-riffic...

[Scott P]

My predictions are holding...

Yes, it's pretty dire water-wise, especially if you head south.

It is a somewhat weird year for La Niña as the typical patterns are still there, but shifted north more than usual. Some patterns are "normal", but usually in La Niña, northern Utah does pretty well for precipitation, but often not until the winter progresses. The south is usually dry.

NOAA still hasn't updated their 90-day predictions since mid-November:



Here has been the actual for the last 30 days:



North of Utah and Colorado the Rocky Mountains have done well precipitation wise, but south of those state lines the precipitation has been terrible. Southern California, Southern Nevada, Arizona, and New Mexico are hating it.

Down south it should stay dry, but as the season progresses, northern Utah and Northern Colorado should get wetter, but it depends on where the storm track is. Southern Utah and Southern Colorado should remain pretty dry and south of that it should unfortunately be even worse.

In the west, the far northern portions of the Lower 48 should do best. If you want to buy a ski pass, go for Washington or Montana!

Even if northern Utah does get wetter, it shouldn't happen until at least late December or early January and maybe later than that.

The warm and dry weather is nice in many ways, but we all need the water.

[tallsteve]

Here's how bad it is locally- I just snapped this photo of Mt. Timp from my office window. THERE"S NOTHING UP THERE and it's freakin' December 11th!

[Scott P]

Here's how bad it is locally- I just snapped this photo of Mt. Timp from my office window. THERE"S NOTHING UP THERE and it's freakin' December 11th!

Dang. I don't think I have ever seen Timp that dry in December!

[Scott P]

You can see the dividing line between wet and dry by looking at the snowpack map for Wyoming and Idaho. In the far northern parts of Idaho and Montana it is also drier than normal, but you can see right where the storm track has been. I can't link the Idaho one for some reason, but checkout Wyoming:



The mountains in the northern half of Wyoming have been getting pounded.

[Scott P]

It appears that the storm track may finally be pushed south, at least temporarily. Long term forecast are saying snow and cold later this week and possibly as late as Christmas. It doesn't look to be a huge snow producer, but temperatures should drop way below zero here and into the single digits in Salt Lake. It will be more cold air than snow.

Southern Utah and Southern Colorado (and even more so Southern California, Arizona, and New Mexico) could stay pretty dry to really dry all winter.

[rockgremlin]

Yeah, NO. Utah got a few flakes over the weekend - like a half inch. And it appears we might get up to an inch or two more this week.

Not shaping up to be a very good water year...

[Scott P]

Not shaping up to be a very good water year...

Change "not good" to terrible. It gets even worse as you go south. Southern Utah is really hating it:


There is still a chance northern Utah and Northern Colorado can get some good storms in January or February (though likely not enough to catch up). Southern Utah and Southern Colorado are basically a lost cause.

[Iceaxe]

Change "not good" to terrible. It gets even worse as you go south. Southern Utah is really hating it:

It's all Trumps fault for what he did to our National Monuments.... Trump stole our water!!!

[Sombeech]

I wouldn't worry too much, these are exactly 1 year ago today and it's just about the same amount of snow.

Taken near Taylor Canyon, Ogden

Sent from my SM-N900T using Tapatalk

[Scott P]

It looks like we might get a bit chilly on Saturday for the first time this season. The forecast says -24, but I'm guessing that it will be colder than that. Thus far the coldest we have had was -8 on December 6, but that's not cold for us, and around here wouldn't really qualify as chilly.

[accadacca]

Yikes...

[accadacca]

Btw the dry trend in Utah continues. Strange “winter...”

[Scott P]

Utah snowpack so far:

https://www.ksl.com/?nid=978

Southern Utah has almost nothing.

[double moo]

My brother stayed at an inn at the base of Mt. Washington last week. They went up to go XC skiing and some snow shoeing... too cold to do anything but hang out round the fireplace!