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Thread: EU's CO2 Vehicle Emissions Woes

  1. #1

    EU's CO2 Vehicle Emissions Woes

    Starting Jan 1, 2020, so next week, new and extremely tight EU vehicle emissions regulations fall into place. Manufacturers will be fined if the entire fleet of new sold vehicles exceeds 95 grams/km of CO2. *Without selling electric vehicles — and lots of them — this requirement set back in 2008 cannot be met. *In 2008 the EU, particularly Germany, jumped on board, because after all, electric vehicles are the future — never mind that the battery technologies weren’t mature then, nor are they today. *In fact, unless it changes its next already-mandated regulation taking effect in 2025 (there is pressure on parliament to do that), Germany will not allow registration of new fossil fueled vehicles.


    A mere two problems in the EU: 1.) the battery technologies and charging infrastructure are not in place and likely will not be for a decade or more, and 2.) very few EU citizens are buying the current crop of electric vehicles because of mediocre, as in miserable, range, reliability, availability of infrastructure and, surprise, surprise, cost of the vehicle.*[The problem of batteries working*very*poorly during typical northmost Northern Hemisphere winter weather is really serious; Germany sits north of the U.S.-Canada border on the world map.]


    Therefore, starting next week, manufacturers will be fined for not meeting the overall CO2 requirement of 95 g/km or less. *Without an electric vehicle offset, most manufacturers overall CO2 value is 105 g/km or higher — apparently those extra 10 g/km technically are quite difficult to achieve.


    You ask how bad can the fines be? *Below I have ‘bolded’ the potential fines for the three major German manufacturers:

    [Milliarden in German is Billion in English]

    In einer Simulation hat das CAR (Center of Automotive Research) der Universität Duisburg-Essen errechnet, welches Ausmaß die Strafzahlungen annehmen könnten, wenn 2020 keine batterieelektrischen Fahrzeuge auf den Markt kämen: Für die*BMW*Group*ermittelte das CAR in diesem Fall Kosten von rund*1,09 Milliarden Euro, für*Mercedes und Smart*1,24 Milliarden Euro, für den*Volkswagen-Konzern 3,98 Milliarden Euro.*

    [Neuzulassung in German is new vehicle registration in English]

    The only way the fines would go away in 2020 is if those three sold*this many*electric*vehicles: *

    Auf null gedrückt werden könnten die Strafzahlungen wiederum, wenn*BMW*2020 auf rund*93,000*Neuzulassungen von E-Fahrzeugen käme,*Mercedes-Smart*auf*101,000*und die*VW-Gruppe auf 347,000. Die Summen würden aufgrund der nachlassenden Diesel-Verkäufe aktuell eher noch höher ausfallen.

    What does not help the German consumer is that in addition to the issues of reliability, infrastructure and cost, are the”fake” advertising claims made by the manufacturers re range. *To wit, the new 2020 Porsche e-sedan, a cool looking, quite expensive (even by German standards) sedan is advertised by Porsche to have a driving range of about 450-500 miles, about equal with the Tesla Model 3 (and even that’s a stretch by Tesla when you use a/c in stop-n-go traffic). *Well, it turns out that’s not quite truthful advertising by Porsche! *That mileage range apparently applies to a moderate steady speed on the Autobahn only, with little or no traffic. *If our U.S. EPA measurements were to be applied to that same car, so with city and highway driving cycle (and with electric vehicles using only electricity for things like a/c and power steering and using electronics, etc.), that range is reduced from about 450 miles to right around 250-300 miles.


    In the final analysis, the EU will likely need to*“postpone” trying to collect fines for exceeding CO2 limits or the manufacturers will have to forego development costs of their e-vehicles and lower sales prices considerably, or someone needs to successfully invent a truly efficient, relatively inexpensive battery technology. *Honda and Toyota this week*stated that development ain’t gonna happen anytime soon and they will continue to concentrate on developing and selling ever more efficient hybrid vehicles.


    FYI, e-vehicles, while not themselves emitting CO2, are generally rated at 50 g/km due to emissions generated by power plants. *Ahh, but then there’s the other little problem, whereby Germany will have shut down its last nuclear power plant by 2022, power to be generated by wind and solar power. *Except that recent official calculations indicate that even if you pave over Germany with wind-farms and the like, it ain’t gonna be enough. *So Germany currently buys nuclear generated electricity from France to make up the considerable shortfall and is desperate for the Russian gas pipeline to be completed…..


    In the meantime, German media and transportation experts see a very bleak 2020 (and beyond) for sales and profitability by German vehicle manufacturers.*


    Oh, and starting in 2025, new diesel trucks and the like can no longer be registered in Germany….

    Climb-Utah.com

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  4. #2
    The suicide of the West continues. On an investing forum I frequent, frequently I'll spar with _investors_ who argue, with a straight face, abandoning fossil fuels is the way to future prosperity. "Otherwise China will beat us in that area and we'll be left behind economically."

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