2020

[dougrz]

More morning pep.

NC live data: https://joeisdone.github.io/northcarolina/



My concern with Schweikart's FL calculations is this:

He gets his target numbers from looking at the D margin going into 2016 election day (ED) and then how much Trump won by. Example, Ds led by 88k on 2016 ED, Trump won by 200k, therefore there's a 288k R reservoir to count on.

My quibble is, with all the extra vote by mail (VBM) and in-person early voting (IPEV), don't we need to factor down the reservoir size?

To wit. In 2016, say 66% voted on ED. This year 33% will vote on ED. Therefore our 288k 2016 reservoir is only 144k this year.

I don't know if he's adjusted accordingly, my Qs have been unanswered on his threads. Just a thought. Who am I to question his calcs, hopefully.

[Iceaxe]

The three key states are Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.... if Trump wins just Pennsylvania it's all over. If Trump wins just Michigan or Wisconsin it's over unless Biden manages to flip a red state, with North Carolina the most vulnerable of the red states.

On a positive note... Black Lives Matter is currently rioting and looting in Philly because police shot a guy charging them with a knife. Someone obviously didn't get the memo that you are supposed to stop burning and destroying other peoples property until after the election. There is an excellent chance that Black Lives Matter just handed PA and the election to Trump.

[dougrz]

Damn, we're down that much?

[dougrz]

I forgot to tell you guys about a good house a few days ago. The day I was walking with the great looking Trump girl.

I looked over and noticed she was invited in. I finished with my house and was waiting. Hmm, shock, a looker was invited inside.

She came out and called me over. A maybe 90 year old guy invites me in, takes me to his memorabilia room. Chock full of USMC gear and photos and letters from his days. He had a USMC flag out front.

I looked up and saw a signed photo of Chesty Puller. Ah, my mom's favorite military man. Why am I such a patriot? I learned at my mom's foot, end of story.

So I mentioned my mom loved him and I knew about him. The man was shocked, couldn't believe someone my age would know. He started crying.

Got to me. Good, good people.

[dougrz]

Late morning pep. I do this between houses, am in a long walk area today.

[rockgremlin]

Hey Doug -- did you make it down to Bullhead City for the Trump rally?

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