2020

[dougrz]

Incredible reaction by Biden. Might help in MI and PA and WI, where a small movement of hunter's vote or suburban "I need some defense" vote will benefit Trump. But that vote is already for Trump. Squeezing a turnip.

The irony is, the shooter used a small handgun.

But given the open talk of eliminating the filibuster, an "AW" and mag ban is certainly coming.

[dougr]

In thinking about the '16 and '18 results, constructing a +/- from those base results might be useful. Mine would be as follows, with the last several elections data listed:


'08: D +10.6% House; D +7.2% Pres
'10: R +6.8 House
'12: D +1.2% House; D +3.9 Pres
'14: R +5.7 House
'16: R +1.1% House; D +2.1% Pres
'18: D +8.6% House

This year's modifiers:
Virus: +3 D
Economic loss: +3 D
Biden senility: +1 R
Dem riot support: +3 R
Immigration/demo shift: +1.5 D
Mail-in cheating: +1 D
NET: +4.5 D

Avg of the 2016/18 results gives D +3.2. Add the net +4.5 D modifiers and you get D +7.7 final.

Change the modifiers to fit your thinking and use actual national poll votes to come to a conclusion.

Should probably add two more mods, a "Trump hatred motivator: +5 D" and "Trump love motivator: +3 R" to add a net +2 D and get close to double digits final margin.

Which in my mind is the only question left: is the final margin single or double digit?

Vs a "shy Trump vote" or "the polls are wrong" hope. But list your modifier changes and make an argument, tell me why I'm wrong. We need a debate meltdown +4 R, Durham explosive indictments +3 R, and more riots +2 R to pull this out, imo.

[Byron]

Newt, a die hard in believing Trump would win in 16 and 20, said yesterday he now believes the level of mail-in cheating makes a good chance we either can't win or won't have a result in time for the electoral college to vote. Called it a serious problem.

Bullshit. Trump will have the election won by mail in votes alone before Halloween...Election Day will just be a formality with even more votes coming to him via those that went to the polls.

You see things one way, Doug...I sure as hell see them another.

[Sombeech]

Incredible reaction by Biden. Might help in MI and PA and WI, where a small movement of hunter's vote or suburban "I need some defense" vote will benefit Trump. But that vote is already for Trump. Squeezing a turnip.

The silent majority grows. Speaking of PA, look at the massive shift to the right.

[Iceaxe]

Biden is extremely worried about losing his home state of Pennsylvania, which is why he is spending so much time campaigning there. It's extremely rare that a candidate has to spend time and money campaigning in his home state.

[rockgremlin]

Yeah Doug has shown me the error of my ways...

The Trump train is about to get derailed. Biden will crush Trump this November.

All is lost. AOC will win in 2024, and a full blown Marxist regime will begin during her presidency.

Mark my words...

[Iceaxe]

[oldno7]

I thought this was a Babylon bee article but nope--he serious


Joe Biden Promises Fewer Fires, Floods, and Hurricanes if He Wins in November

“Wildfires are burning the suburbs in the West, floods are wiping out suburban neighborhoods in the Midwest, hurricanes are imperiling suburban life along our coast,” Biden said. “If we have four more years of Trump’s climate denial, how many suburbs will be burned from wildfires? How many suburban neighborhoods will have been flooded out? How many suburbs will have been blown away in superstorms?”

https://pjmedia.com/election/tyler-o-neil/2020/09/14/joe-biden-promises-fewer-fires-floods-and-hurricanes-if-he-wins-in-november-n930658?fbclid=IwAR1jpPZMcLx1rTs87YBNa0sPzvrCfraI_ lbTMZgh3VTHo5lBTAzcvbUV4Ig

[oldno7]

This seems to go against the narrative.
Of course it's climate cha--er a global warming.

Wildfire Arsonists Create New Questions

(CU) - It's the wildfire season on the west coast. We know all-to-well the extent of damage wildfires can create due to the heavy forestry of the region. This year's season has a different feel and the under-reported arsonist activity throughout the region only perks up more ears. When considering the anarchists dominating the news in this same region, could any of these fires be man-made? Below is a documented review of the unusually active arson arrests and safety concerns throughout the Pacific Northwest.

https://www.clarksvillian.com/post/wildfire-arsonists-are-cause-for-concern

[oldno7]

[oldno7]

[rockgremlin]

I thought this was a Babylon bee article but nope--he serious


Joe Biden Promises Fewer Fires, Floods, and Hurricanes if He Wins in November

“Wildfires are burning the suburbs in the West, floods are wiping out suburban neighborhoods in the Midwest, hurricanes are imperiling suburban life along our coast,” Biden said. “If we have four more years of Trump’s climate denial, how many suburbs will be burned from wildfires? How many suburban neighborhoods will have been flooded out? How many suburbs will have been blown away in superstorms?”

https://pjmedia.com/election/tyler-o-neil/2020/09/14/joe-biden-promises-fewer-fires-floods-and-hurricanes-if-he-wins-in-november-n930658?fbclid=IwAR1jpPZMcLx1rTs87YBNa0sPzvrCfraI_ lbTMZgh3VTHo5lBTAzcvbUV4Ig

Well, he also promised to cure cancer.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/joe...ncer-president

How can people take him seriously?

[oldno7]

[BasinCruiser]

We all know what the Dems are trying to do and what their game plan is, despite their denials. But, eventually they reveal it, either by accident, or slowly and subtle. Kamala has let slip the truth that this is indeed the Harris/Biden campaign, not the Biden Harris campaign.





https://nypost.com/2020/09/15/kamala...Ht6g4iD7lo_q5c

[oldno7]

^^^^and everyone but joe knows this.

[dougrz]

The silent majority grows. Speaking of PA, look at the massive shift to the right.

Now that's a good data point.

[dougrz]

I thought this was a Babylon bee article but nope--he serious


Joe Biden Promises Fewer Fires, Floods, and Hurricanes if He Wins in November

[COLOR=#333333]

I do agree more burning if Trump wins. Arson fires from the leftist rioters will be epic.

[Byron]

I do agree more burning if Trump wins. Arson fires from the leftist rioters will be epic.

Which, IMO...will undermine them even more.

So the anarchist, the BLM, the socialists, the progressives, etc...are sporting for a fight, right? They can't win against us, the conservatives that will shoot back. They'll never gain political power via the Conservative party. We are the toughest opponent they have...so who are they going to go after? Themselves.

That's right. The best thing that can happen is the Democrats get creamed in this upcoming election and their party is severely weakened. Biden will retire, Harris is nothing, Pelosi will be ousted, Bernie and Warren's "best" days are behind them...the party as it is will have to fight off these people that would be looking to fill the vacuum. A civil war in the Democrat Party...that's where that battle will be fought...that's the only place that they can ever hope to gain real political power and one way or another, a "new" Dem party will be created...like I've been saying for years now...the "reformation".

Unfortunately for the string pullers it isn't going to come about by choice, but by war. It remains to be seen if the more "moderate" elements of the Dem party survive. I think they'll try to buy the punks off and if that doesn't work they're in big trouble.

They pulled it off after the defeat in '72...but this time I think it's going to be a tall order hoping that the loudmouths blend into the background like they did then. They went too deep into the shithole and lost control.

[dougrz]

A civil war in the Democrat Party...that's where that battle will be fought...that's the only place that they can ever hope to gain real political power and one way or another, a "new" Dem party will be created...like I've been saying for years now...the "reformation".

And if your prognostication comes about, this will be an epic foreseeing of a future few else see.

[Byron]

And if your prognostication comes about, this will be an epic foreseeing of a future few else see.

Man, it looks obvious to me. They are so fragmented...liberals are "mostly" peace loving people. Most are pacifists and try to live their lives hiding their eyes from bad things. But those that speak and act for them are careening out of control...COMPLETELY. The more aggressive aspects of their ideology is going to beat them down...well heck, it already has.

That's what I'm saying...they're easy meat and these punks ALWAYS go for the easy pickings first.

You see them as gaining power, I see them as losing it. This election is going to show us the lay of the land because the contrast is so severe. I was only 9 years old in '72 and although I remember seeing "McGovern" and "Peace" bumper stickers all over the place, I wasn't old enough to study or even "feel" the mood...but from what I've read it was quite a severe contrast in itself...and we all know how it turned out.