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Thread: 2018 Mid-Term Elections

  1. #41
    Bogley BigShot oldno7's Avatar
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  3. #42
    Bogley BigShot oldno7's Avatar
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  5. #43
    Bogley BigShot oldno7's Avatar
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  7. #44
    Quote Originally Posted by Iceaxe View Post
    You might want to give Nate Silver a rethink... just for fun I looked up his prediction for the 2016 presidential race. Good old Nate had Hillary winning in a landslide with 71.4% of the vote.... OOPS... not even close....



    Here's his prediction:
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tion-forecast/
    Umm no. As an engineer I figured you'd know the difference between "71.4% of the vote" and a 71.4% chance of winning the election. If I roll a dice and say there is an 83.3% chance of rolling a 1,2,3,4 or 5, but I happen to roll a 6, it doesn't mean the original statement was incorrect. He currently shows Mitt with a 99.9% chance of winning, with 59% of the votes. And for the record, many on the left were mocking him because he was giving Trump such good odds, and he wrote several articles in the days before the election, explaining how Trump could very well win. But yeah, if you are making statistically analysis a 0 sum game, then I guess you could say he was wrong. But he did nail 2008 and 2012, only missing 1 state each year.

  8. #45
    I agree, very poor wording on my part. Hard to believe I have a degree in mathematics with an emphasis on statics.

    Nate gave Crooked Hillary a 71.4% chance of winning. She was slaughtered... Nate wasn't even close.

    But my original question is still valid... are the models wrong again?


  9. #46
    Quote Originally Posted by Iceaxe View Post

    Nate gave Crooked Hillary a 71.4% chance of winning. She was slaughtered... Nate wasn't even close.

    But my original question is still valid... are the models wrong again?

    I'll give you a mulligan on the stats portion, but I think "slaughtered" is a little overboard considering A) Hillary won the popular vote and B) Trumps victory ranked the 46th (out of 58) largest electoral college victory. Well behind both Clinton wins and both Obama's wins. He did however, beat out both of W's wins. Washington is still the only back to back unanimous winner. Reagan's win in 1984 was before my time, but must have been something. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...College_margin

  10. #47
    My unscientific result prediction:

    National:
    - GOP keeps senate
    - Dems take house by 10 seats
    Local
    - Mia wins
    - Amendment 1 passes
    - Amendment 2 and 3 fail
    - Prop 1 fails
    - Prop 2 fails (by 1 vote thanks to Sombeech)
    - Prop 3 passes
    - Prop 4 passes
    - Mitt wins in a landslide and immediately sucks up to Trump and tries to pretend he wasn't the #1 anti-trump guy 18 short months ago. Left or right aside, has there ever been a politician with less actual conviction than Mitt? His positions always 100% line up with the popular position of the moment, and will change as soon as the voters change. A true weasel.

  11. #48
    Quote Originally Posted by uintafly View Post
    Mitt wins in a landslide and immediately sucks up to Trump and tries to pretend he wasn't the #1 anti-trump guy 18 short months ago. Left or right aside, has there ever been a politician with less actual conviction than Mitt? His positions always 100% line up with the popular position of the moment, and will change as soon as the voters change. A true weasel.
    I despise Mitt, I hate voting for the carpet bagger, but voting for socialism and mob rule is worse. So I'll hold my nose and vote for Mitt.



    Climb-Utah.com

  12. #49
    I think Prop 2 will pass. I'll even put money on it. Everyone, and I mean everyone I've spoken to about it says they're gonna vote for it. It has momentum. It'll be close, but it'll pass.
    <----I'm with Spartacus

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