Keyhole flash flood deaths

[ratagonia]

Why pick up a permit at 7:30 but not enter until 3:30?. That doesn't sound like a experienced canyoneer to me.

That's right! Experienced canyoneers pick up their permit at 7:30 THE DAY BEFORE!

Limited quota means people get their permit as soon as possible. Not sure what time their class started, but they might have gotten the permit before the class (or the 7th person picked it up).

They took the class, rented wetsuits and got their gear for the next couple days set up, went and had lunch, then discussed whether they should do a canyon on that day.

Tom

[ratagonia]

So did we figure out how the photo of them was obtained?

http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/z...oding-33852850

"Days later, rescuers searching for their bodies found a camera revealing the final group photo."

[Slot Machine]

I am not sure I would enter a canyon even with a 20 percent chance thunderstorm. There is a fine line at that point. I would like to hear other more experienced canyoneers thought on what percentage of rain would change their mind on entering a canyon.

The % chance has limited utility. **EDIT: THIS IS HOW PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES ARE CALCULATED. **

I DO look at that number, because the forecasting computers are good a predicting spontaneous cloud formation (particularly monsoon formations). So if the 20% is in the afternoon timeframe, and it is monsoon season, then I take it more seriously than, let's say, 20% on an dry-ish February morning. It's like being on the lookout for a 20% chance of getting punched by Mike Tyson vs. 20% chance of getting punched by Kermit the Frog.

In addition to that information, I spend a considerable amount of time before trips studying infrared weather patterns in the area that we are about to visit. Which way are the clouds moving? Is there a predictable pattern of thunderstoms in the afternoon? Are the clouds moving in waves? Or are they swirling? Are there people in that region doing rain dances?

Basically, I recommend using the percentages AND developing judgment by watching infrared weather patterns.

Why pick up a permit at 7:30 but not enter until 3:30?. That doesn't sound like a experienced canyoneer to me.

Even more experienced canyoneers* print their permits at home, via the Express Permit System, up to three days in advance.

What time someone picks up their permit has little or nothing to do with what time they will (or should) do the canyon. It is simply a full day pass.





* I've only done a fraction of the canyons that @Ratagoina has. I'm not even sure if Zion requires him to posses a permit anymore.

[Sombeech]

Again, I keep reading criticism from folks saying if it were them, they would accept the fact that they could "save the canyon for another day".

For those of us who live within 5 hours of Zion and go there at least twice a year, yes, we CAN hit it next time.

But for the late 7, this could have been a "bucket list" trip, probably wanting to visit Zion once in their lives, they wouldn't be planning on a next time.

If I were headed to San Diego and wanted to do some surfing at Huntington Beach, and the reports warned of shark attacks, would I still suit up and rent that surfboard once my toes hit the sand and the 5 foot waves were coming in?

I would definitely be struggling with it. I'd probably take a quick look at the water and then jump in. I'd get another quick status report on the sharks, ask justifying questions to make myself feel better like "they can't still be here after all day, right?"

Now the other San Diegans... they would stay out of the water because they could hit it one of the other 364 remaining days in the year. They wouldn't even think about it, they'd just save it for another day.

But man, I've been dreaming of the ocean. I need that salt water to rub my nipples raw on the board or else my whole trip is going to be a bummer.

Just think about it, if you say you'd save the canyon for another day, you can. But me? It's just worth the risk. I may not ever be there again. The risk/reward is worth it to have those sweet facebook pictures.

I think the vast majority of us would have gone through Keyhole if we were these people from California looking for this once in a lifetime trip.

[donnagail]

I print mine at home, too but if I picked it up at 7:30am and was warned of possible afternoon storms, I am pretty sure I would want to head straight to the canyon, get in and get out before noon. Just like hiking a 14er when storm clouds form after noon. I think we all have learned a little more from this unfortunate tragedy.

[hipporump]

The % chance has limited utility. "20%" are the chances it will rain for one moment, in one place, in one timeframe (12 or 24 hours, usually).

I thought a 20% chance of rain meant that 20% of the reported area will get rain? But yes, there is certainly so much more to it than just a percentage. When I grew up in California, I very rarely checked the weather because it was pretty much always the same. Nor did I ever have to deal with monsoons or any of that other funky stuff.

Sombeech, thanks for putting it into perspective. It's important to remember we all have our own set of circumstances and motivations that lead to our decisions. Just because mine might be different than yours doesn't necessarily make it wrong. Unfortunately for these guys, their decision turned out to be the wrong one.

[CanyonFreak]

But man, I've been dreaming of the ocean. I need that salt water to rub my nipples raw on the board or else my whole trip is going to be a bummer.

Just think about it, if you say you'd save the canyon for another day, you can. But me? It's just worth the risk. I may not ever be there again. The risk/reward is worth it to have those sweet facebook pictures.

I think the vast majority of us would have gone through Keyhole if we were these people from California looking for this once in a lifetime trip.

Los Angeles and San diego are a 6-7 hour drive from Zion which does not make them a once in a lifetime trip. Trip to the outer space, Mars..these I would consider a once in a lifetime that might warrant an increased acceptance of risk. The first thing we learn from any course or research is to mitigate the risks we can and plan for the ones we can't. Weather will always fall under the former.

Scott P made a great point regarding the fact that people don't have a backup plan which leads them back to plan A all the time. These were avid hikers, they likely would have found happiness on many of the great hikes in Zion. I have a range of activities for most the places I canyon which include day hiking, backpacking, climbing ect. If canyoneering ins't in the cards, bailing for something else on the list is acceptable, although not preferred. Using reason over emotion to bail is the more heroic move.

We all have felt the disappointment after planning a perfect multi day canyoneering trip and watch the weather deteriorate. I've driven to death valley or escalante and bailed on zion and vs versa and even stayed home. The mentality of a YOLO canyoneer, hiker or surfer is dangerous and one that I believe people should keep to themselves, experienced or not. People new to canyoneering and forum might come to that conclusion on their own but we shouldn't promote that mentality or make it seem like the norm.

Hopefully the next time anyone of us is thinking of descending a canyon with marginal weather, we will think back to keyhole and be reminded that the risk isn't worth any Facebook update or disappointed member who traveled cross country. I think that will be the only real good to come from this.

[kidjan]

http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/z...oding-33852850

"Days later, rescuers searching for their bodies found a camera revealing the final group photo."

I'm really interested A) in the photo's timestamp (it should have info about when it was taken) and B) the location of the photo. That looks like it was taken by the entrance to keyhole (i.e. immediately over the pass and down that root-infested slope), but it could also be the middle opening by the first rap? I can't tell.

Which is crazy, because I ran keyhole on September 7th, so....brain must be getting slow.

[Iceaxe]

Where the photo was taken is no mystery. It was taken at the top of the slot and not the first rappel as reported in the media. Also I'll wager the time is 4:30 plus or minus 30 minutes.

[Glenn]

David Rankin did a very good analysis of the rain event that hit Hildale/Keyhole rain event. Jump to 9:50 to see the Keyhole discussion.



After watching other YouTube videos of flash events of Behunin and Echo/Hidden Canyons, I can imagine this storm creating a huge fall of water plunging down into Keyhole. Horrific.

[Slot Machine]

I thought a 20% chance of rain meant that 20% of the reported area will get rain? But yes, there is certainly so much more to it than just a percentage. When I grew up in California, I very rarely checked the weather because it was pretty much always the same. Nor did I ever have to deal with monsoons or any of that other funky stuff.

Ah, I stand corrected (sort of). But @hipporump is closer than me. I've edited my post above, because it is incorrect. Thank you for the correction hipporump.

A review for aspiring amateur weather forecasters:

According to the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS), POP is the probability of exceedance that more than 0.01 inches (0.25 mm) of precipitation will fall in a single spot, averaged over the forecast area.^[1] This can be expressed mathematically:

^[1]

• C = the confidence that precipitation will occur somewhere in the forecast area.
• A = the percent of the area that will receive measurable precipitation, if it occurs at all.

For instance, if there is a 100% probability of rain covering one half of a city, and a 0% probability of rain on the other half of the city, the POP for the city would be 50%. A 50% chance of a rainstorm covering the entire city would also lead to a POP of 50%. The POP thus usually expresses a combination of degree of confidence and areal coverage.
Note that the POP measure is meaningless unless it is associated with a period of time. NWS forecasts commonly use POP defined over 12-hour periods (POP12), though 6-hour periods (POP6) and other measures are also published. A "daytime" POP12 means from 6 am to 6 pm.^[2]

[Slot Machine]

Los Angeles and San diego are a 6-7 hour drive from Zion which does not make them a once in a lifetime trip. Trip to the outer space, Mars..these I would consider a once in a lifetime that might warrant an increased acceptance of risk. The first thing we learn from any course or research is to mitigate the risks we can and plan for the ones we can't. Weather will always fall under the former.

Very good post @CanyonFreak.

But I'll add that people look at risk differently, and each have a God-given set of skills to deal with risk differently. Each of us thrive off risk differently (some find risk repugnant and don’t thrive at all, and I understand those folks too).

Steph and I went and saw Meru last night. It is funny how much we relate the guys that climb those mountains. They must push the limits of adventure, lest they go mad.

They stand on the line, where ‘risky behaviour’ wanders into ‘recklessness’, never knowing exactly how far their toes are dangling across that invisible boundary. I consider @Sombeech's mindset risky, but not reckless, and completely relate to his point of view. Indeed, you do only live once, and I’m not going to my grave thinking about the ‘what ifs’.

The mentality of a YOLO canyoneer, hiker or surfer is dangerous and one that I believe people should keep to themselves, experienced or not. People new to canyoneering and forum might come to that conclusion on their own but we shouldn't promote that mentality or make it seem like the norm.

I think there is nothing wrong with writing about flirting with risk. We can all learn from others’ tales of approaching the edge, then each of us can decide how far back we want to stand.

Personally, I greatly appreciate the stories from Psycho D, Sandthrax, No Kidding and Poe (among dozens of others). Those experiences have taught me great things, without great amounts of suffering.

I even appreciate the stories about Fiddlesticks, though I’d never use one.

[dlofting]

David Rankin did a very good analysis of the rain event that hit Hildale/Keyhole rain event. Jump to 9:50 to see the Keyhole discussion.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TOUgIvQKcoI

After watching other YouTube videos of flash events of Behunin and Echo/Hidden Canyons, I can imagine this storm creating a huge fall of water plunging down into Keyhole. Horrific.

That's a great analysis......both drainage areas that the storm hit are very small. All those people were just in the wrong place at the wrong time.

[Sombeech]

I know people in Ogden that have never been to Bear Lake. I know people in St George who have never been to Zion NP, nor Las Vegas. So the distance isn't always a factor, but if you are pretty sure you're not going to be back to a certain place anytime soon, and you've prepared for it, bought gear specifically for it, practiced rappelling for it, you're more likely to take the chance.

But if you know you'll be back, it's easier to save it for next time.

[Slot Machine]

WHOA, jaw dropping stuff. Look at the distance between that cloud and the northern margin of the storm. That is pretty much nothing...



Thanks for posting that video @Glenn. Strong work David Rankin.

[kidjan]

Where the photo was taken is no mystery. It was taken at the top of the slot and not the first rappel as reported in the media. Also I'll wager the time is 4:30 plus or minus 30 minutes.

By "top of the slot" I'm assuming you mean the entrance to keyhole (i.e. bottom of steep root-infested slope)?

It can't be 4:30, because the rain was already pounding the keyhole basin around 3:45 according to the video posted above, unless his timestamps are off. Looks like keyhole was being pounded from about 3:40 to 4:00 PM. My guess is that photo is more like 2:30 or 3 PM. Although that video calls into question the account of time by the party that passed them. I'd assume the video is more likely correct.

[jman]

Hopefully this can provide some context to the Keyhole Sections.

The "standard route" (drawn in red) starts at the road and hikes up to the saddle and drops down the 100ft+ to the canyon opening right there. That opening is referred to as "Middle Keyhole". The section where the 1st rap is (although yes, it can be downclimbed) is referred to as "Lower Keyhole". The "Upper" section is not done too often - just because you have to climb back out of the drainage and hike another 0.24 miles to the start.

[kidjan]

Hopefully this can provide some context to the Keyhole Sections.

Yup, that's exactly what I was looking for. Thanks. So they were at the opening of middle which is what I suspected, but wasn't sure about.

[mzamp]

Hopefully this can provide some context to the Keyhole Sections.

The "standard route" (drawn in red) starts at the road and hikes up to the saddle and drops down the 100ft+ to the canyon opening right there. That opening is referred to as "Middle Keyhole". The section where the 1st rap is (although yes, it can be downclimbed) is referred to as "Lower Keyhole". The "Upper" section is not done too often - just because you have to climb back out of the drainage and hike another 0.24 miles to the start.

I thought there was a bolt and a short rap right at the entrance to the middle section? But I have a bad memory sometimes. Plus I have only done Keyhole once and I was pretending to be lead through the canyon by my friends who were learning the "lead" role.

[kidjan]

I thought there was a bolt and a short rap right at the entrance to the middle section?

there is not. the first rap is correctly marked in the overview jman posted. the yellow section requires no rappelling, largest drop is maybe 4-5 feet or so.