Black Hole Drainage Safety

[ActionPacker]

I am looking at hiking the Black Hole in the Cedar Mesa area this weekend but see that there is some rain possible in the region.

I know that the drainage area for that hike is massive but how can I best check to see if the potential storms will hit the drainage for the Black Hole?

[SRG]

Check the weather for Natural Bridges National Monument. It's about 20 or 30 miles south(EDIT: It's actually east, thanks Shane) of The Black Hole and it drains into White Canyon.

White Canyon is typically dry, so if you get there and there is ANY water flowing, it's either the start or end of a flood.

EDIT: Watching radar can help you figure out where a storm did and didn't hit. I like to use an app called Hi-Def Radar because it's free and it allows you to watch 7-frame radar loops that cover a span of anywhere from 30 minutes to 6 hours.

[Iceaxe]

Bridges NM is east of the Black Hole :-)

No rain in Bridges doesn't mean the canyon will not flash. Lots of other massive drainage's also contribute.

If you are coming from the direction of Bridges stop at the Soldiers Grave and look into White Canyon. From my experience it takes a flash at the Soldiers Grave about 3 to 5 hours to reach the Black Hole.


Tap'n on my smart phone.

[qedcook]

Bad weekend for the black hole if you are looking at Saturday or Sunday

[Scott P]

No rain in Bridges doesn't mean the canyon will not flash. Lots of other massive drainage's also contribute.

Ditto. It would be impossible to check every drainage before hiking. It's not a good canyon to do if the weather forecast is bad. It would be useful to check the canyon at Soldiers Grave, but it can still be hard to get all the way through before a flood would start from there.

Be aware that there are Hazardous Weather Outlooks (which will probably become a flash flood watch or warning) out for the weekend in the region.

[Scott Card]

For me, the formula is simple. This weather outlook, that drainage =

I am one who will walk to the first rap in many situations before I make my final decision to go or not to go, but not in that drainage.

[Erik B]

I am looking at hiking the Black Hole in the Cedar Mesa area this weekend but see that there is some rain possible in the region.

I know that the drainage area for that hike is massive but how can I best check to see if the potential storms will hit the drainage for the Black Hole?

We intended to run a lap through there last week but found white canyon to be flowing HARD. We headed Shane's warning about flow and picked something different.

[Mountaineer]

If you are coming from the direction of Bridges stop at the Soldiers Grave and look into White Canyon. From my experience it takes a flash at the Soldiers Grave about 3 to 5 hours to reach the Black Hole.

Dynamic, and agree that it takes time. Good to know in an unplanned emergency, but not sure you want to plan around this and risk your life on these variables.

I witnessed a flash in Fry Canyon two years ago. We drove over to Soldiers and watched White Canyon. After several hours of waiting, we never saw any water. In the morning, it was flowing.

[Scott P]

but not sure you want to plan around this and risk your life on these variables.

Agreed. Why would anyone even try to time a flash flood in order to hopefully beat it? (Timing flash floods can be interesting though)

Why not just avoid going into slot canyons altogether when flash floods or heavy rain are predicted?

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick...1#.VCV7C_ldWgY

This is even more true for something like the Black Hole, which has a huge drainage area feeding into it.

[Scott P]

PS, I'm going to post a screenshot just in case someone (not posting on this particular thread) comes back next week with a flash flood story and then claims that the weather forecast was good on the weekend.

[ActionPacker]

Thanks for the input everyone. I convinced the group it was not the right weekend to test our fate. @SRG, thanks for the lead on Hi-def radar app.

[MPH]

Call the ranger station at natural bridges...they seem to be helpful when i call...also, you could try calling the gas station at hite. might be closed now though...

I am looking at hiking the Black Hole in the Cedar Mesa area this weekend but see that there is some rain possible in the region.

I know that the drainage area for that hike is massive but how can I best check to see if the potential storms will hit the drainage for the Black Hole?