Blarney and Sandthrax flashflood

[Eric Holden]

30% chance of rain means 70% chance of SUNSHINE. I was on the trip this weekend. Some people had rain, others did not.

I always look at it this way..... 30% chance of rain=30% chance of getting swept away to my death.....I shall pass when the forecast calls for this.

[Eric Holden]

The meet-up groups are becoming as notorious as boy scouts for getting into bad situations.

Thoughts? Other common denominators? Always pinning the blame on bad luck is a poor practice as we make our own luck, good or bad....

I have only been to a couple of meetup groups, both times were climbing, and it was the irresponsible leading the blind. I wanted to climb so I went against my better judgement of "I don't think these guys know what they are doing"...... I was dropped and decked while on top rope both occasions... never again.

[hank moon]

Home-made pancakes for breakfast this morning. Walnuts, maple, real butter. Yummy! The only thing that could have made it better? Buckwheat.

I am also curious about the dynamics of a meetup group, especially w/respect to risk management. How is participant ability / preparedness assessed? Or is it? How does the assessment (if there is one) get done? How does the group decide who goes where, who doesn't go at all, or whether the trip runs at all? What equipment to bring, etc.? I need to get out on one of these meetups sometime and see what is happening out there. Obviously!

[Slot Machine]

30% chance of rain means 70% chance of SUNSHINE. I was on the trip this weekend. Some people had rain, others did not.

Not exactly.

First, unlike the stock market, past weather performance IS indicitive of future results. Computer modeling has its limitations and is no replacement for common sense. Closely studying the satellite images and observing the "pattern" is FAR more useful than relying solely on a guesstimated 30/70 prediction.

Torrential rains over the past 7 days? All the Zion canyons are closed? Roads washing out? Noah pleading with you to board his ark? ... Primitive people would call these "signs". Signs to stay home.

I had Saturday, Sunday and Monday set aside for canyoneering with friends. All day Thursday and Friday we closely (and independantly) watched the forecast. We all came to the same conclusion of "Hell no!", then stayed home. Foresight was 20/20.

So... I'm amazed any of you crazies were in the North Wash on Saturday. I don't feel bad for any of you, because all events were predictable and avoidable.

Second, the flash flood video in this thread SUCKS!! Am I the only one that was screaming "TURN THE CAMERA AROUND!" while watching?? Even your own mothers don't want to see your faces when a flash flood is happening on the other side of the camera. Get your priorities right the next time you go flashyoneering!

Bob

[Iceaxe]

Someone sent this video link to me. It's worth a look.

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=10151848490905100

It looks like we hurt somebodies feelings as the video has now been set to private. So on behalf of all Bogley members I'd like to apologies...

We're sorry if we hurt your feelings for calling your actions stupid.... we thought you already knew...

[flatiron]

I am also curious about the dynamics of a meetup group, especially w/respect to risk management. How is participant ability / preparedness assessed? Or is it? How does the assessment (if there is one) get done? How does the group decide who goes where, who doesn't go at all, or whether the trip runs at all? What equipment to bring, etc.? I need to get out on one of these meetups sometime and see what is happening out there. Obviously!

I too have never been to a meetup - or rendezvous - have no desire. I do have friends who have gone to Rends. I ask them the same q's Hank just did. Their answers are basically: it's all confusion - with little or no assessment on who, or what, or abilities. Canyons take way longer to complete cause of large uncoordinated groups with vast levels of competence. And it has a sense of a big fun social event with old/new buddies WHILE we are lead thru a canyon. Their stories scare me straight away from ever joining. (plus I don't want to camp, and do canyons, with 50+ of my new best friends - that's just me) Frankly I am amazed there aren't MORE accidents. My friends go because 1) they want to do canyons and don't want to lead, or have info to do on own. 2) meet other canyoneers 3) social aspect b4, during and after. What seems to be a good idea is not well thought out - especially when doing a possibly dangerous thing like canyons. Canyons are NOT like hikes or bikes, or skiing, etc. So I do understand the popularity of these things - but for all the good intentions IMHO it is not conducive to safety at all. And unless a Leader or small group of leaders take charge of each individual meetup/rend to organize and assess, this will be an ongoing issue. That is a real easy forecast!!

[accadacca]

It looks like we hurt somebodies feelings as the video has now been set to private. So on behalf of all Bogley members I'd like to apologies...

We're sorry if we hurt your feelings for calling your actions stupid.... we thought you already knew...

That's too bad. We all learn from each others mistakes and seeing the video is a teaching moment for many, regardless if the event was avoidable or not by the party involved.

Even the most experienced Canyoneers have made mistakes, as mentioned in this thread and others. This thread has seemed pretty balanced to me.

[Danno]

Someone was able to get video of Saturday's flood in progress at Sandthrax campground. Don't know if this was the peak of the flood or not, but it's obviously pumping a large amount of water into the camp and you can see how it's ripping out the entrance road by the Irish Canyons sign.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LzamkmEhEMo

[Iceaxe]

30% chance of rain means 70% chance of SUNSHINE.

Actually.... in weather forecasting a 30% chance of rain means that 30% of the area being discussed will receive rain. Which is kinda the same thing and kinda not.

[tontwins]

Bob - I’d say on behalf of the entire group were not asking for your sympathy.

To the others who have brought up meet up groups and others similar groups I’d say those are fair criticisms that do have merit. I’d say that group psychology was likely a factor in us deciding to go that day. We all met prior to leaving and the weather was not discussed for any length of time nor debated as it should have been. We made it a point to get out early as we didn’t want to start late. Had we waited a few hours this would have never occurred and I might have even been able to save my tent assuming we stayed in camp.

I have gone on many group trips and for me at least the positive experiences have outweighed the negative ones. I’ve made some great friends and shared some amazing experiences. One thing that I have always enjoyed about group trips is teaching someone a new skill, seeing someone overcome a fear, and experience something new. In that moment you feel their energy and sense of accomplishment.

I am evaluating if I will ever go on a canyonering trip in a group like meetup or others again. Perhaps the risk and danger are to high with canyoneering. I know I would not be able to live with myself had someone died. I Know I speak for everyone when I say we have learned from this. My hope in sharing on this blog is others will learn from it too.

[Scott P]

If anyone is wondering/curious, here is an exact cut and paste of the weather warnings that were posted for Hanksville at least as early as Thursday. It was posted Thursday through Sunday exactly as it appears below.

"DUE TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT HAS FALLEN OVER MOST OF THE
FLOOD WARNING AREA...MANY IF NOT ALL OF THE WATER COURSES ARE
FLOWING AT OR NEAR FLOOD LEVELS. THIS INCLUDES SLOTS...DRY
WASHES...SMALL STREAMS...SMALL RIVERS AND SOME OF THE LARGER RIVERS
IN THE AREA.

ADDITIONALLY MANY ROADWAYS HAVE BEEN COVERED BY DEBRIS AND FLOOD
WATERS AS THE FLOODED STREAMS AND RIVERS CROSS STATE HIGHWAYS. IN
SOME CASES BOULDERS THE SIZE OF CARS HAVE BEEN DEPOSITED.

BURN SCARS WITHIN THE WARNED AREA CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DEBRIS FLOWS
AND DAMAGE ROADWAYS AND BRIDGE STRUCTURES.

MANY OF THE MORE FLASH FLOOD PRONE AREAS SUCH AS NATIONAL PARKS AND
MONUMENTS IN THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FLOOD WARNING AREA ARE ALL
FLOODING DUE TO THE NATURE OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FALLING OVER VERY
IMPERVIOUS SOILS AND STEEP GRADES. THESE AREAS WILL BE FLOWING
THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS AND INTO THE MORNING.

PLEASE BE VERY VIGILANT IF YOU ARE TRAVELING IN OR AROUND THESE
AREAS. TAKE STEPS TO ENSURE YOUR SAFETY."

Anyway, as mentioned before everyone makes mistakes. I think we all have, so it doesn't do too much good to dwell on it.

Avalanche warnings and flash flood warnings are something to take seriously or to keep current on, since unlike other dangers, there isn't that much you can do if you ever get caught in one. I've seen them both, but never been caught in one. It's a pretty awesome thing to watch from a safe distance.

[canyon69]

this is the sky before we dropped in

I was not the organizer of this trip, nor a designated canyon leader. It was requested that I provide lead support for one of the groups, which I was assigned to that morning.
The weather forecast had been watched and was at a 30% chance of rain for Saturday when I last checked. We had a shower during the night, but woke to clear blue skies with scattered small white puffy clouds......no rain in any direction. The photo I attached earlier was taken from the top of Trachyotomy, which is just 4-5 miles to the south. We had the same view to the southwest, which is the direction from which the wind was traveling. With no sight of rain or dark clouds to the southwest, we descended into Blarney with the impression that no rain would arrive in our vicinity in the couple of hours it would take to get through the canyon.
I'm no meteorologist and I would love to know how the rain clouds formed to bear down on us approximately 45 minutes after we dropped below the rim. There was not a strong wind, so an unseen storm could not have approached that quickly. All I can think is that the atmospheric conditions must have been in a state that formed rain clouds near or on top of North Wash that then dumped rain on the area for about 20-30 minutes.
All in all, it was a scary experience that added to all of our "toolboxes". The flame-fest here on Bogley is rough and my cohorts and I are the current targets. Hopefully the County DA will recognize that this was not a blatant case of Reckless Endangerment and we will not have to sit out the rest of our canyoneering days in the Garfield County Jail.

Attachment 69422Attachment 69423Attachment 69424Attachment 69422

[Canyoneerman]

The lesson to be learned here is no groups should have been out canyoneering last weekend. I don’t care if it was only 30% chance, a little research would have revealed that there was a high change of flash floods across Utah. We need to change the canyoneering roulette mentality. This trip should have been called off before anyone drove to the North Wash.

It is too easy for us once we have committed to drive down there to say I will just make the judgment call when I get to the top of the canyon. Is a group really going to hike back down after driving to the North Wash and also hike up to the top of the canyon? The only way they call it is if they see an imminent thunder storm on the horizon.

It sounds like a number of groups were out in the North Wash and my guess is at other locations across Utah. We need to change the canyoneering roulette culture. I have learned from my mistakes in the past to do the right canyon in the right weather, with the right team, with the right technical experience and equipment, with the correct daylight. Anything else has the potential to lead to trouble. This trip should have been called off before anyone left.

[Canyon Dog]

this is the sky before we dropped in

canyon69, thanks for posting these pics. It is now much more obvious that our assessment of the sky and my memory of such was lacking. While we are below the rim here, we are still above the technical slot section where it would have been much easier to avoid the floodwater. While we were in full sun on the rim, the building clouds can be seen in these shots.

[Deathcricket]

Tom

ps. and YES, I am a frakkin' a-hole, because I believe people that recklessly endanger other people's lives should be taken behind the dumpster and beaten to a pulp, at least metaphorically. Being a frakkin' a-hole is my job around here, and I take pride in my work.

Not really shocked to hear Tom say such hateful things. Over the years I've come to expect these things from him and I knew coming into this thread he would be all over it. An old guy who lives alone and never gets laid? Heck I would be mad at the world and have sand in my vag too.

I am kinda shocked though at the number of people agreeing with him. I think Hank really had the best approach, if people are out there being dangerous, the best idea is to reach out and help them. Bashing them and ragging da skillz not really gonna help.

[Absolute Gravity]

this is the sky before we dropped in

Jesus. I'm no meteorologist but those look like they are getting ready to drop some MF rain. Plants are all green, soil looks saturated. Looks like a flash waiting to happen. Your post should have read 'before we decided not to drop in'. Glad it turned out all right for the most part. Sucks when things go bad.

[canyon69]

somebody has some personal issue here not related to the topic

Not really shocked to hear Tom say such hateful things. Over the years I've come to expect these things from him and I knew coming into this thread he would be all over it. An old guy who lives alone and never gets laid? Heck I would be mad at the world and have sand in my vag too.

I am kinda shocked though at the number of people agreeing with him. I think Hank really had the best approach, if people are out there being dangerous, the best idea is to reach out and help them. Bashing them and ragging da skillz not really gonna help.

[Byron]

I am kinda shocked though at the number of people agreeing with him. I think Hank really had the best approach, if people are out there being dangerous, the best idea is to reach out and help them. Bashing them and ragging da skillz not really gonna help.

I don't know, DC...looking at the pictures and hearing about the forecast seems to add up to major brain fart to me. Of course some folks are going to pile on...certainly you don't expect EVERYONE to come in all nice and cuddly coo.

For any of you that may have been involved in this, try not to take what is said here personally...ya screw up, ya get slapped around for it and learn. It's all good, especially that no one got hurt...most everyone on this site is really cool, even if they (and myself) gets a bit rough sometimes. Everyone is welcome, as I see lots of new members chiming in on this. Don't worry about Tom, he's a bit more bark than bite.

[Byron]

somebody has some personal issue here not related to the topic

Come around more often, as this is a regular occurrence...adds a bit of spice to the proceedings and I'm all for it.

[Iceaxe]

It's all good, especially that no one got hurt...

I think you mean "especially that no one died"... because people did get hurt.

Which I believe is one of the reasons the criticism is kinda harsh, that combined with the fact this is not the first injury incident involving this group this year.