Blarney and Sandthrax flashflood

[dougr]

ps. and YES, I am a frakkin' a-hole, because I believe people that recklessly endanger other people's lives should be taken behind the dumpster and beaten to a pulp, at least metaphorically. Being a frakkin' a-hole is my job around here, and I take pride in my work.

I gotta agree on this one.

[Iceaxe]

Yo Canyon Dog.... thanks for providing the details :-)

Tap'n on my Galaxy G3

[Byron]

I'm with Tom...I went through those very same canyons with a woman who had ACA training, or BS training, or XYZ whatever it is, and I wasn't impressed at all. Knowing how to rig a biner block and having some certificate is hardly equitable to experience. After that trip...my first with complete strangers, I realized how the blind leading the blind could be a serious problem. I'd bet that there's all kinds of near death or serious injury happening that we never hear about.

If it is indeed one dude leading these people out there with all this consistent drama, then there is certainly a problem...with him. I've known people that seem to have bad luck follow them around. It's probably a good idea to avoid doing dangerous activities with them.

Also, I think there is absolutely no excuse for someone taking a dive off of worn webbing.

[Scott P]

Canyon Dog,

I don't want to judge at all, and I've made many mistakes myself, but I'm curious why the trip was a go with all the flash flood warnings?

I've been itching to get out to the canyons for the last three weekends, but the weather forecast has been very poor. I didn't check the forecast for North Wash, but did for Escalante. It said 100% chance of rain with flash flood warnings.

Just curious for the reasoning. Was the forecast better in North Wash or was it expected that the floods would only happen at a certain time of day, or?

[deagol]

seems like it's getting to be a circus out there.. with meetup groups and all....
Everything can get ruined in time.

[peakbaggers]

Canyon Dog,

I don't want to judge at all, and I've made many mistakes myself, but I'm curious why the trip was a go with all the flash flood warnings?

I've been itching to get out to the canyons for the last three weekends, but the weather forecast has been very poor. I didn't check the forecast for North Wash, but did for Escalante. It said 100% chance of rain with flash flood warnings.

Just curious for the reasoning. Was the forecast better in North Wash or was it expected that the floods would only happen at a certain time of day, or?

GJ NWS forecast early Friday evening was still calling for 50 - 60% chance of rain in tha area, humidities were still high and water vapor loops showed that the wet system was not clearing out as had been earlier forecasted. We had been planning on heading for the same area, but that forecast changed our plans and the Tuesday report of that same area flashing.
I watched on radar Saturday as the main storm hit by around noon or before. By that time the NWS in GJ had issued a flash flood warning. Of course, there's no way they could have known that with no cell reception in that area.

[dougr]

Canyon Dog,

I don't want to judge at all, and I've made many mistakes myself, but I'm curious why the trip was a go with all the flash flood warnings?

This was my first thought. WTH are you doing in canyons with such rain around?

[Iceaxe]

I'm with Tom...I went through those very same canyons with a woman who had ACA training, or BS training, or XYZ whatever it is,

The ACA fills a students toolbox with many fancy tools. My major criticism of the program over the years is the students leave with little understanding of what is the right tool in their toolbox for the job. I often see ACA graduates with dozens of canyons under their belt using the wrong tool to complete a task, sometimes creating a serious safety hazard in the process.

YMMV


Tap'n on my Galaxy G3

[Spokey]

30% chance of rain means 70% chance of SUNSHINE. I was on the trip this weekend. Some people had rain, others did not.

[DougInGJCO]

Tom as you say you are a FAH but . . . your years of experience and your opinions are valued and at least in my case, respected.

There has not been 'one' person for you to focus your rant on though as there is not a common denominator leader in these canyon incidents. I do not know who was in charge at Hogwarts as I was in a completely different canyon that day probably about 5 miles away. In Hogwarts I had used on Saturday the same anchor that failed on Sunday.
In Constrychnine the person who was the victim was also the most experienced person in that party. Again, Tom, I was not in that canyon so cannot speak to competence there.

In Blarney this past weekend, I was not in that canyon either. I was with a group that had the good fortune to not get to the head of our canyon before the rain began.

[tontwins]

I was there too looked clear on Saturday we made it Half way through Trachyotomy before storms rolled in...

Tom quit being a *itch u weren't there...Everyone takes responsibility for their own actions in a canyon and lives or dies with the consequences. If your not looking out for your own safety then you shouldn't be in the canyons.

[tontwins]

Just to be clear about the "fellow" you speak of...Proves to me how ignorant of the facts you are as these were three separate events organized on a website that the "fellow" manages. These are not guided trips the people that go on these trips assume the risk and are ultimately responsible for their own safety as it should be.

[tontwins]

and YES, I am a frakkin' a-hole, because I believe people that recklessly judge without knowing the facts should be beaten to a pulp, at least metaphorically.

[Canyon Dog]

I was not the organizer of this trip, nor a designated canyon leader. It was requested that I provide lead support for one of the groups, which I was assigned to that morning.
The weather forecast had been watched and was at a 30% chance of rain for Saturday when I last checked. We had a shower during the night, but woke to clear blue skies with scattered small white puffy clouds......no rain in any direction. The photo I attached earlier was taken from the top of Trachyotomy, which is just 4-5 miles to the south. We had the same view to the southwest, which is the direction from which the wind was traveling. With no sight of rain or dark clouds to the southwest, we descended into Blarney with the impression that no rain would arrive in our vicinity in the couple of hours it would take to get through the canyon.
I'm no meteorologist and I would love to know how the rain clouds formed to bear down on us approximately 45 minutes after we dropped below the rim. There was not a strong wind, so an unseen storm could not have approached that quickly. All I can think is that the atmospheric conditions must have been in a state that formed rain clouds near or on top of North Wash that then dumped rain on the area for about 20-30 minutes.
All in all, it was a scary experience that added to all of our "toolboxes". The flame-fest here on Bogley is rough and my cohorts and I are the current targets. Hopefully the County DA will recognize that this was not a blatant case of Reckless Endangerment and we will not have to sit out the rest of our canyoneering days in the Garfield County Jail.

[MiCamp]

30% chance of rain means 70% chance of SUNSHINE. I was on the trip this weekend. Some people had rain, others did not.

Yeah, that's not really what it means.

This is the explanation for 'chance of rain' from NOAA.

What does this "40 percent" mean? ...will it rain 40 percent of of the time? ...will it rain over 40 percent of the area?
The "Probability of Precipitation" (PoP) describes the chance of precipitation occurring at any point you select in the area.
How do forecasters arrive at this value?
Mathematically, PoP is defined as follows:

PoP = C x A where "C" = the confidence that precipitation will occur somewhere in the forecast area, and where "A" = the percent of the area that will receive measureable precipitation, if it occurs at all.

So... in the case of the forecast above, if the forecaster knows precipitation is sure to occur ( confidence is 100% ), he/she is expressing how much of the area will receive measurable rain. ( PoP = "C" x "A" or "1" times ".4" which equals .4 or 40%.)
But, most of the time, the forecaster is expressing a combination of degree of confidence and areal coverage. If the forecaster is only 50% sure that precipitation will occur, and expects that, if it does occur, it will produce measurable rain over about 80 percent of the area, the PoP (chance of rain) is 40%. ( PoP = .5 x .8 which equals .4 or 40%. )
In either event, the correct way to interpret the forecast is: there is a 40 percent chance that rain will occur at any given point in the area.



Lets all be safe out there.

[Sandstone Addiction]

The weather forecast had been watched and was at a 30% chance of rain for Saturday when I last checked. We had a shower during the night, but woke to clear blue skies with scattered small white puffy clouds......no rain in any direction. The photo I attached earlier was taken from the top of Trachyotomy, which is just 4-5 miles to the south. We had the same view to the southwest, which is the direction from which the wind was traveling. With no sight of rain or dark clouds to the southwest, we descended into Blarney with the impression that no rain would arrive in our vicinity in the couple of hours it would take to get through the canyon.

Thank you for sharing your story and am glad to hear everyone made it out ok.



For me, your pic from the top of Trachyotomy paints a whole different picture. Years ago, we used to go to Lake Powell a lot during monsoon season and it didn't take long to figure out that if we woke up to the thin mid level clouds like the ones in your pic, we were likely to see major thunderstorm activity and would plan accordingly. But your pic also shows thunderstorms building, not just over the Henry's, but also over the low desert regions which would indicate that they could build anywhere and time to high tail it to higher ground.

[Scott P]

30% chance of rain means 70% chance of SUNSHINE. I was on the trip this weekend.

Which forecast said 30%? As mentioned, Escalante said 100% and others have said it was 50-60% for North Wash. For sure there were hazardous weather outlooks and flash flood warnings out all week, including on and before the weekend (even if the flash flood warning hadn't been issued yet there was a hazardous weather outlook for all of southern Utah.

The only reason I ask is because I've noticed that websites such as weather.com et al tend to be less accurate outside the major cities and towns than does the noaa.forecast.

Still, 30% is a pretty high chance for a slot canyon. Not so much on a normal hike since rain doesn't matter as much.

In addition to % rain, make sure to keep an eye on the Hazardous Weather Outlook.

When in effect, they are at the top of each weather forecast from NOAA.

Example:

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick...A#.UjhZdLXnZCp

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigw...k#.UjhZoLXnZCo

I'm no meteorologist and I would love to know how the rain clouds formed to bear down on us approximately 45 minutes after we dropped below the rim

Day time heating. If the humidity and dew point were already high in the morning, there is a good chance of thunderstorms during the monsoon season.

[Eric Holden]

Just a passing point of interest too - the morning after the Constrictnine incident we asked around at the group breakfast gathering if people would contribute $$ toward buying equipment for the two county SAR teams that mobilized for that event. First thought in passing the hat was we might be able to collect $200; then someone said let's shoot for $250. By the time it was counted, $1000 had been collected. I would say these are people who showed they know and appreciate the value of rescue.

[Iceaxe]

as there is not a common denominator leader in these canyon incidents.

I believe one of the common denominators in the current string of North Wash mishaps are meet-up groups. It might be a good idea to try and understand why these particular groups keep getting in trouble.

The meet-up groups are becoming as notorious as boy scouts for getting into bad situations.

Thoughts? Other common denominators? Always pinning the blame on bad luck is a poor practice as we make our own luck, good or bad....

Also... what is up with this "canyon leader" stuff. I believe unless you are being guided there should be no canyon leader as it creates a poor system for requiring personal responsibility. Just my two cents....



Tap'n on my Galaxy G3

[deagol]

...
Still, 30% is a pretty high chance for a slot canyon. Not so much on a normal hike since rain doesn't matter as much......

I am not meaning to "pile on" but this was my thought as well. Anytime I have noticed a 30% chance of rain, it rains. Also, if that pic was taken in the early morning (say before 10:00 AM) and you already have the low puffy clouds like that: bad sign IMHO

I believe one of the common denominators in the current string of North Wash mishaps are meet-up groups. It might be a good idea to try and understand why these particular groups keep getting in trouble.
.......

Interesting observation. Maybe a Meetup group connects strangers who don't know anything about each other's abilities ?? Maybe someone signing up assumes they will be "taken care of" ?