Mystery Canyon w/ weather advice?

[El Jefe]

Question for the experts (by which I mean anyone with more experience than me). We have a permit to do mystery canyon this Monday, September 10th. Weather.com is showing a 50% chance of rain for that day, and a few members of the group are having second thoughts. I personally am willing to wait it out and see what the weather looks like the day of, but there is talk of scrapping the plans altogether and just heading for Arches/Canyonlands for the weekend.

Nobody in the group has done this particular hike before. We are all able-bodied, and most of the group have a fair amount of climbing experience, but our technical canyon experience is a little more limited. For those who have experience, I was curious about the watershed area of that canyon (do we have to worry about thunderstorms 20 miles off in that particular canyon, etc?). I was also wondering how much "safe area" there is in the canyon; ie, is it deep and steep often, or are there plenty of places to seek high ground quickly if the need arises.

By no means do I plan to be foolhardy, but I really don't want to scrap the weekend on the preliminary chance of weather. Thoughts?

[Scott P]

The "Rock Narrows" are the only slot section of the canyon. The part near the Virgin River is also a place you wouldn't want to be in a flash flood. Even walking through the Zion Narrows after Mystery Canyon wouldn't be a good idea in a flash flood.

The rest of the canyon route is probably fairly safe, but personally I would not try any slot canyon with a forecast such as the above. Others here may disagree.

The head of the canyon is about the head of the drainage, so no you aren't going to get hit with a flashflood from 20 miles away, except perhaps for the section in the Zion Narrows.

[Deathcricket]

Yeah like scott says, the only dangerous part is the last 1/4 mile through the narrows, and you'll be able to look down on it before rapping in. Pretty safe IMO.

I have this theory that Orderville doesn't flash either. Just based on the fact that the log jams look the same every year. Would be curious to hear opinions though.

[Scott P]

Yeah like scott says, the only dangerous part is the last 1/4 mile through the narrows

I didn't say that. I said the Rock Narrows and lower Mystery would also be dangerous.

I have this theory that Orderville doesn't flash either. Just based on the fact that the log jams look the same every year.

Uh, how do you think that those log jams got in there in the first place? My guess is that it does flash. Big time.

(PS, my like was by accident; I meant to hit reply. I don't mean that I "don't like" the post either, but I wanted to point that out).

[ratagonia]

Yeah like Scott says, (sic.) the only dangerous part is the last 1/4 mile through the narrows, and you'll be able to look down on it before rapping in. Pretty safe IMO.

I have this theory that Orderville doesn't flash either. Just based on the fact that the log jams look the same every year. Would be curious to hear opinions though.

Crazy stuff...

1. Orderville changes all the time. I guess with my 100-year timeline, I have a better long-term view, young Cricket. Not like it flashes a LOT, but it surely flashes big once in a while.

2. Being in ANY canyon with steep walls in heavy rain is dangerous.

3. It is a big help in threatening weather to know the canyon well, so that you know what is ahead and how long it will take. You are at a distinct disadvantage if you have not done the canyon before. Keyhole? Pine Creek? Angels Landing perhaps?

4. This summer, the weather reports have been moving around a lot, day to day. Don't take them real serious until the day before.

5. If it rains when your car is parked up past the Ponderosa, you might not be able to get it out - might have to wait until the next day or the next afternoon.

Tom

[Brian in SLC]

From NOAA:

MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SURGE NORTHWARD SUNDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN UTAH.

A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY BRINGING AN INCREASED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
STATE-WIDE. THIS WILL SET UP THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY...WITH THE BIGGEST THREAT BEING SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON THIS POTENTIAL STRONG THUNDERSTORM EVENT.

I dunno. Sounds kinda juicy to me. If Sunday/Monday were my days down there, I'd probably consider another venue...

[El Jefe]

By no means do I plan on going in there if the skies are bad. I'll just propose a hypothetical. Let's say that the weather forecast holds at 50%, but we wake up early Monday morning to clear skies and no indication of bad weather coming. If the canyon is more Bells than Little Wildhorse, that is to say, if there is usually a safe spot to seek refuge on quick notice, I think I would feel fine with proceeding with the hike. However, if shelter and high spots are routinely unavailable for significant portions of the hike, I probably would not proceed. I understand there are spots tight spots where that is all unavoidable, but I'm more curious about the majority of the hike.

[Scott P]

Let's say that the weather forecast holds at 50%, but we wake up early Monday morning to clear skies and no indication of bad weather coming.

It is also worth mentioning that regardless if the skies are clear or not, the NPS will not issue a permit if flash flood danger is rated high, at least it was this way in the past.

[Slot Machine]

Yeah like scott says, the only dangerous part is the last 1/4 mile through the narrows, and you'll be able to look down on it before rapping in. Pretty safe IMO.

I have this theory that Orderville doesn't flash either. Just based on the fact that the log jams look the same every year. Would be curious to hear opinions though.

Wow DC, it looks like you are going to catch your limit today.

[ratagonia]

It is also worth mentioning that regardless if the skies are clear or not, the NPS will not issue a permit if flash flood danger is rated high, at least it was this way in the past.

um, not really. The NPS works by rules. The rule is if NOAA has a flash flood WARNING in effect, they will not issue permits. But they will during a flash flood WATCH.

Tom

[ratagonia]

By no means do I plan on going in there if the skies are bad. I'll just propose a hypothetical. Let's say that the weather forecast holds at 50%, but we wake up early Monday morning to clear skies and no indication of bad weather coming. If the canyon is more Bells than Little Wildhorse, that is to say, if there is usually a safe spot to seek refuge on quick notice, I think I would feel fine with proceeding with the hike. However, if shelter and high spots are routinely unavailable for significant portions of the hike, I probably would not proceed. I understand there are spots tight spots where that is all unavoidable, but I'm more curious about the majority of the hike.

Of canyons to do in these conditions, Mystery is a good choice. Take a good look at the skies before entering the Rock Narrows, and move through them expeditiously.

Past the rock narrows, you have a sand dam protecting the lower part of the canyon.

Tom

[Slot Machine]

By no means do I plan on going in there if the skies are bad. I'll just propose a hypothetical. Let's say that the weather forecast holds at 50%, but we wake up early Monday morning to clear skies and no indication of bad weather coming. If the canyon is more Bells than Little Wildhorse, that is to say, if there is usually a safe spot to seek refuge on quick notice, I think I would feel fine with proceeding with the hike. However, if shelter and high spots are routinely unavailable for significant portions of the hike, I probably would not proceed. I understand there are spots tight spots where that is all unavoidable, but I'm more curious about the majority of the hike.

Once you get to the rappels it is more like LWH than Bells. No escape from a flash flood. I like your comparison.

We had a similar dilemma to yours 2 months ago. Windy, 60 mph gusts on Observation Point. Scary clouds.

We decided to hike to the drop-in point for Mystery and then decide what to do. Studying the satellite imagery it looked like it would clear up around noon, and it did, just when we arrived at the top. That is not exactly what NOAA predicted for the region, but that is what we predicted using our eyballs and grey matter. I'm not claiming to be Nostradamus, we just got it right that day.

Anyway, I'd go to Zion and have some alternative plans. Looking at NOAA, I think it is too early to decide. Utah weather changes on a dime so you *might* be squandering a chance to do a pretty good canyon.

[Deathcricket]

Uh, how do you think that those log jams got in there in the first place? My guess is that it does flash. Big time.

Ya ya good call. I'm sure it floods once in a blue moon, perhaps every 5-10 years. But it's very rare. I'm sure Mystery flashes but again probably pretty rare. Although I've only bothered to do Mystery once so would have no clue how it changes from year to year. I do travel through Orderville at least 3-5 times a year. Here is a pic from 2009. Now granted over the years the long log (sticking up) has fallen down and you can now walk up it like a ramp. If there was a single flash flood it would either blow these sticks out, move it further down the canyon, add some more sticks to it, or change it in some remarkable fashion. Yes it is slightly different each year, but I suggest any flood capable of harming a human life would in some way change this structure.

I'm sure Tom will argue this is anecdotal evidence, and try to put me down in some way as his usual rambles. But I think it's good evidence the canyons on that side are reasonably safe. And orderville is obviously a way bigger drainage than Mystery.

[ratagonia]

I'm sure Tom will argue this is anecdotal evidence, and ...

You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.

[deagol]

One thing occured to me regarding Mystery in the rain, going down the death gully could really suck if it were wet & muddy. Disclaimer: I hate the Death Gully

[Mountaineer]

One thing occured to me regarding Mystery in the rain, going down the death gully could really suck if it were wet & muddy. Disclaimer: I hate the Death Gully

I agree! If it wasn't for the death gully, this canyon would creep higher on my list. I felt like I was on ball bearings and compromised vegetation the whole way down...

[deathtointernet]

One thing occured to me regarding Mystery in the rain, going down the death gully could really suck if it were wet & muddy. Disclaimer: I hate the Death Gully

Actually in my experience I find a little (not a lot, mind you) moisture makes it much better. Helps hold the loose surface together. Honestly I've never seen Death Gully as that bad of a thing. Certainly does its job of getting you to the bottom of the canyon. Some faster than others

[skiclimb3287]

Actually in my experience I find a little (not a lot, mind you) moisture makes it much better. Helps hold the loose surface together. Honestly I've never seen Death Gully as that bad of a thing. Certainly does its job of getting you to the bottom of the canyon. Some faster than others

I would agree with this. When we did it, we didn't find it too bad, but rather dusty and dry. Couldn't help but think that it would help if it was a bit wet.

We did it late October a couple years ago. Started at 6am and made it to the head of the canyon quite early. Clouds around us worried us and so we sat for way too long debating weather to drop or not. Pulled up the radar on a phone and it showed the storm literally splitting around the canyon. Hard to believe, so we hung out and watched it split and rain around the canyon, but never on us. Dropped in after noon and did the last rappel in the dark...ok not everyone, but me as the last to go. Glad we went, regret the long decision resulting in the hike out and rappel in the dark. Better to know we were safe though.

I guess the point is you can see what is going on around you. Small drainage area. Make a smart decision based on what you see and what the radar shows. If you drop, move efficiently.