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Thread: Stocks

  1. #1181
    I was a week or two early on bailing on this bear rally. But some decent losses the last few sessions. Long haul of waste in the market to go, with some sobering talk, and coming to the realization of, this past weekend I noticed.

    40% unemployment of households under $40k is staggering. Powell's comment recently. Obviously service workers, but doesn't erase their impact on aggregate demand and economic activity.

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  3. #1182
    Quote Originally Posted by dougrz View Post
    I was a week or two early on bailing on this bear rally. But some decent losses the last few sessions. Long haul of waste in the market to go, with some sobering talk, and coming to the realization of, this past weekend I noticed.

    40% unemployment of households under $40k is staggering. Powell's comment recently. Obviously service workers, but doesn't erase their impact on aggregate demand and economic activity.

    Geez you sound like MSM....you getting a commission?

    So what's the plan from here? Drop 500 - 1000 points a day every day until DJIA gets under 10,000? Accompanied every day with doom and gloom articles about how "this economic collapse is worse than Pearl Harbor, 911, and the 2008 recession combined"? Pull your money out of the stock market and deposit it under a mattress until 2021?


    Yes -- we get it. It's bad. But where's the path out? What does that look like? That's what I want to see. Or is there no plan for recovery? -- we're just gonna hyper-focus on how awful the economy is until Trump is voted out or Jesus comes back - whichever comes first.
    #NotMyVirus

  4. #1183
    Quote Originally Posted by rockgremlin View Post
    Yes -- we get it. It's bad. But where's the path out? What does that look like? That's what I want to see. Or is there no plan for recovery? -- we're just gonna hyper-focus on how awful the economy is until Trump is voted out or Jesus comes back - whichever comes first.
    November 4th and everything in the Democratic world can return to normal, because Trump will be gone... it might be January 2021 or 2025, but either way he will finally be gone...

  5. #1184
    Quote Originally Posted by rockgremlin View Post
    Yes -- we get it. It's bad. But where's the path out? What does that look like? That's what I want to see. Or is there no plan for recovery? -- we're just gonna hyper-focus on how awful the economy is until Trump is voted out or Jesus comes back - whichever comes first.
    I'm not a trader like Old anymore. I'm a longer term trend investor. I have to recognize the governors have done a hell of a job wrecking the economy. Lot of politicians need to be ____ for what they've done. Nevermind the treasonous, unconstitutional way they've done it.

    I think we'll bleed off to a more reasonable valuation, like 18k. I dont expect a free fall again. I'd be buying again at that level.

    The difference between me and the MSM is they want it to happen and hype the virus risk. I reject the health risk and see the sabotage for what it is. But I still have to acknowledge the damage. They want massive welfare payments to people directly as we see in the new Dem bill (96k/yr for a fam of 4). These people in control would be truly ruinous, to a degree where we'd all be fighting for food in 2 years.

    And where to go? It's a difficult Q. Lack of demand leads to deflation. Yet the money supply is inflating. So more money chasing names that will not materially be seeing better earnings. I don't know where to go at these levels. Other than nibbling on particular names that were enticing over the last 2 months. Longer term, finding names with good balance sheets to survive anything worse coming, knowing that aggregate demand will return one day. It's just that index stock returns, imo, will be muted for several years.

    Bottom line, I don't expect substantially worse economically than we have now. But the market is overvalued for what we have now, and the Dems will make damn sure it stays bad. Hence my dilemma.

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  7. #1185
    This is hilarious...

    Back on May 1st, Elon Musk came out and tweeted that Tesla stock was overvalued and share prices were too high. After he said that, the share price predictably dropped briefly. But ever since that, the price level of when he made that statement has been acting as pretty solid support. Check it out:

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    #NotMyVirus

  8. #1186

    Market seems to be suggesting that this is the first crash in history that hasn't seen a relapse or even a retesting of the lows. This bear market rally is now going on 3 months long, with no signs of slowing down.

    So far, the market has yawned at the oil market crash, unprecedented Federal stimulus, 30% unemployment, and civil unrest and rioting in the streets. Gold stocks have been getting spanked recently, and the price of gold took a $40 dive below $1700/oz today.

    Tough to see any justification for the market's upward momentum since there really isn't much to support it -- except hopium. And how long will that last?
    #NotMyVirus

  9. #1187
    Quote Originally Posted by dougrz View Post
    Bottom line, I don't expect substantially worse economically than we have now. But the market is overvalued for what we have now, and the Dems will make damn sure it stays bad. Hence my dilemma.

    Stock Market set to soar as May jobless rates unexpectedly plunge.

    https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/...20-jobs-report

  10. #1188
    The stock market is on an upward tear this morning... the DOW just blew through 27,000.

    It seems the Democrats can't halt the Trump economy.... Not a Scamdemic, not killer Hornets, and not a manufactured race war.... nothing is working for them.

  11. #1189
    Incredible... the DOW just posted a 1000 point gain... I don't know if the number will hold throughout the day as I expect some profit taking.... but whatever happens posting a 1000 point gain in under 24 hours is amazing.


  12. #1190
    Quote Originally Posted by Iceaxe View Post
    Iceaxe prediction... the Dow will be back above 28,000 before September.

    /Bookmarked
    From February 28th when Chicken Little (Dougr) again predicted the sky was falling..... We're almost there already as the DJIA today closed at 27,572. Looks like we might make 28k before the end of June. If Trump is reelected the Dow will close at over 30,000.

    Now if we could just get Accadacca to again tell us how Trump was destroying the world economy we would all be rich.

    /Bookmarked

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  14. #1191
    Quote Originally Posted by Iceaxe View Post
    From February 28th when Chicken Little (Dougr) again predicted the sky was falling..... We're almost there already as the DJIA today closed at 27,572. Looks like we might make 28k before the end of June. If Trump is reelected the Dow will close at over 30,000.

    Now if we could just get Accadacca to again tell us how Trump was destroying the world economy we would all be rich.

    /Bookmarked

    LOL -- It's pretty remarkable how well the market is doing these days considering the current state of things. It's almost surreal -- like the market doesn't care about all of the dismal news lately. The market yawns at all the social rioting and double-digit unemployment numbers. The economy still isn't up to full steam yet but the market is acting like it is.

    One thing's for certain -- this red hot stock market spells trouble for Democrats, and they know it.

    We might see a slight drop in coming weeks due to a "second wave," but I don't think it will deter much from the market's determined effort up.
    #NotMyVirus

  15. #1192
    Well... If you were skeptical about the market recently, you weren't alone. Long time market analyst Stanley Druckenmiller was also very outspoken against the market - and recently ate crow publicly for it.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/stan...d-the-fed.html
    #NotMyVirus

  16. #1193
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    The crow eating is too early. We are in the warm months, virus activity is lower naturally. We also have Dems and Wall St looking to sabotage the market. Wall St how? Through a run up in valuations now to induce weakness in later months closer to the election. Call me crazy, but the pro China-trade power in this country will stop at nothing to defeat Trump, and a narrative of a weakening market in Oct to undercut Trump's only argument for his re-election is made more possible by the action so far. But besides that, we're simply overvalued historically. Money can be made timing this all, but timing is tough and things turn quickly.

    It comes down to this: I think @Iceaxe is too dismissive of the power of the left to take this country down. To enslave all of us to government handouts and re-education through media and schooling. Too dismissive of the fact that every single public institution of this country has been corrupted by the left: media, schooling, corporations, sport, science, medicine, etc. There's nothing left, and that has consequences.

  17. #1194
    Quote Originally Posted by dougr View Post
    It comes down to this: I think @Iceaxe is too dismissive of the power of the left to take this country down.
    Not going to happen. I think most understand that a small group of highly aggressive emotionally charged activists took over our culture. They forced the entire country to obey their will. It all happened so fast and with such ferocity that virtually no one resisted it.

    Conservatives are slow to wake up, get off the couch, and take action. But in the end they always get their shit together, rally, and close ranks. Not to mention when push actually comes to shove one side has all the guns and bullets, while the other side has virtue signaling.

    In the end this is going to bite the woke crowd right on the ass... it always does.

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  19. #1195
    Basin Cruiser BasinCruiser's Avatar
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    Real question: What is driving these stock market increases and job creations? Are they real and long term, or just temporary fantasy? Is this just trillions of dollars that the government printed flowing into the stock market and jobs created purely off of speculation and dreams from people who have some money, or is there real market demand for the products and services these jobs are providing?
    "Where there is no law, there is no opportunity, where there is no justice, there is no liberty, where there is no safety, there is no future."

  20. #1196
    Quote Originally Posted by BasinCruiser View Post
    Real question: What is driving these stock market increases and job creations? Are they real and long term, or just temporary fantasy? Is this just trillions of dollars that the government printed flowing into the stock market and jobs created purely off of speculation and dreams from people who have some money, or is there real market demand for the products and services these jobs are providing?

    I think both, but to be honest I think speculation has been driving much of the upward movement lately.

    I think last Friday's unemployment numbers were 13.5% -- and although that was an improvement over the previous report, 13.5% is still nothing to be proud of and if that news hit the wires any other time it would have caused the market to plummet instead of rocket skyward which is what happened on Friday. The economic news is still not great, but taken in context with what has happened recently with the pandemic and everything it appears that there is cause for optimism going forward.

    Also -- there are legit companies and businesses that are in very high demand right now and are raking in cash. Many of these are companies that profit from work-from-home situations like Zoom, Paypal, and Amazon. Consumer discretionary stocks (Kroger, Costco, Home Depot, etc) are doing very well right now, and are profiting from the hysteria as well.

    Good rule of thumb: Any reaction within the market is always an overreaction. That said, many stocks were sold off way too low and are now taking back ground. These would be energy stocks (Oil, natural gas) as well as leisure stocks like casinos and restaurants. One example is MGM stock, which normally trades around $30 - 35/share dropped all the way down to under $5 bucks.
    #NotMyVirus

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  22. #1197
    Quote Originally Posted by BasinCruiser View Post
    Real question: What is driving these stock market increases and job creations? Are they real and long term, or just temporary fantasy? Is this just trillions of dollars that the government printed flowing into the stock market and jobs created purely off of speculation and dreams from people who have some money, or is there real market demand for the products and services these jobs are providing?
    That really is the $64k question. Or since there's been so much printing, the $640k question. Qs plural.

    Check NKLA. An electric truck manufacturer saying they're going to best the F-150 in sales. #1 or #2 most purchased stock on Robinhood recently. Up 7x in a few weeks with no earnings for years to come.

    What does that say? Brilliant forward thinking, like sticking money into Amazon back in the day when it wasn't going to be profitable for years? Or does a hot Robinhood stock prove the point that the incredibly easy access to stock buying today begets speculation as uninformed, undisciplined money flows in?

    I am old school in valuing things. The 99 dotcom bubble saw endless chatter about new paradigms and investing with foresight to not look for earnings and to pay too much else miss the boat.

    One thing the printing can't change is a ratio. If new money floating around causes stock prices to rise, then you'd expect that new money would cause rising demand or rising product prices. Which would make basic price to sales or price to earnings ratios still meaningful. We're not seeing these ratios remain at historically stable numbers.

  23. #1198
    Stocks are talking a huge crap today as fears of a second wave of Coronavirus threatens to sweep the country.

  24. #1199
    Quote Originally Posted by Iceaxe View Post
    Stocks are talking a huge crap today as fears of a second wave of Coronavirus threatens to sweep the country.

    Finally. I've been anticipating this for weeks. A second wave market crash is long overdue.
    #NotMyVirus

  25. #1200
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    Quote Originally Posted by Iceaxe View Post
    Stocks are talking a huge crap today as fears of a second wave of Coronavirus threatens to sweep the country.
    And fearing the purposeful destructive Dem gov reaction to a potential second wave. We know with certainty we have a 5th column in this country that will stop at nothing to bring Trump down.

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