Stocks

[oldno7]

All good points. I'm looking for what I perceive as the max level of medical fear. And that will be potentially decoupled from the stock market, which is looking for max level of business fear. So I might miss the bottom.

Max medical fear I'd guess will come as widespread testing rolls out. Where we'll see an explosion in active case numbers. 5k cases in a country of 1/3 billion people? Silly low, and yet this national reaction so far. Imagine when that's 50k cases in 2 or 3 weeks. By then, terror awash, and the market bludgeoned lower.

Then I'll have to make a decision. It's not a decision for me yet since I'm strongly making a directional call at the moment.

Your logic is sound--so far

Several players in the vaccine world are claiming to be close.

I hope so, not likely but I hope so.

[dougr]

NBLX, if anyone is looking for greater than 100% divi yield. Energy names, not just a bloodbath, but a bloodocean.

[dougr]

We're getting into horrendous levels of fear selling. This is getting truly historic. Don't need to state the obvious, you all know. Just stream of consciousness, in awe of what we're witnessing.

[dougr]

Holy eff. BofA preferreds hit $11 and $13 and $14 across the range. Par $25. Unbelievable to see that level of fear in a too big to fail bank's preferred offerings.

This is unquestionably 2008 level fear, but compacted in time and more violent. It is scary volatility and unknowns.

[dougr]

I added to HMLP, my nat gas play. Yield around 30% at my price. Stunning, stunning selloff in so many names.

[dougr]

Bill Miller's thoughts. Old time legend investor: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/18/inve...-his-life.html

-Investor Bill Miller calls this market one of the best buying opportunities of his lifetime-

“I don’t mean to put all the money in at once but I do think layering it in right now is the way to go.”

“There have been four great buying opportunities in my adult lifetime,” he said. “The first was in 1973 and ’74, the second was in 1982, the third was in 1987 and the fourth was in 2008 and 2009. And this is the fifth one.”

[dougr]

Huge late rally, 1000 points. You can't make this stuff up. Sub-19k to almost 20k. No telling what's in store.

Check TVIX, a levered VIX fund. Up 2000% on all this in the last few weeks.

[oldno7]

Huge late rally, 1000 points. You can't make this stuff up. Sub-19k to almost 20k. No telling what's in store.

Check TVIX, a levered VIX fund. Up 2000% on all this in the last few weeks.

Amazing,

I wasn't following, my system buy would have been around 76.40 and I don't have a sell yet.(interesting)

[dougr]

I'm buying more DOW and new entry in HD tomorrow.

[twotimer]

I'm buying more DOW and new entry in HD tomorrow.

I'm looking to buy into the big boys, too. What's HD? Home Depot? I looked at that one but didn't include it on my list...I'm favorable to those that are trading where they were between '16-'17. I don't like the ones that are hovering too close to the run up in the last 3 years...not enough room to grow where others are.

Believe it or not...Boeing and Ford. I don't believe these companies are going "down the tubes", even thought they both have issues, Boeing is going to be backed by the Fed and Ford will get thru the Hackett era just fine, IMO. Both those stocks are long holds, of course...but they have the potential to at least double your investment within a few years, maybe sooner.

[dougr]

Futures off 4%. Sub-19k tomorrow it appears.

[oldno7]

Crazy but I bought VSTO again towards the close last night, if it dips below $6 I'll buy some more, otherwise I'll be looking for a sell signal on hopefully a decent profit.

[oldno7]

“I don’t mean to put all the money in at once but I do think layering it in right now is the way to go.”

”

This guys been reading bogley it would appear

[oldno7]

I get a funny feeling that real estate is going on sale in the not to distant future.

[dougrz]

US coronavirus crisis could last 18 months or more, federal plan warns: report

https://www.foxnews.com/health/us-co...n-warns-report

Worst case scenario brainstorm report. But if it came true, the market would go single digits, 5k, Great Depression 2, etc.

But that is the kind of thinking, when it becomes talked about and considered, that pushes fear to a new level, toward some bottom.

[dougrz]

I get a funny feeling that real estate is going on sale in the not to distant future.

I've been telling my realtor friends the same. People aren't going to be buying with wealth evaporating and uncertainty reigning and job security suddenly in question. Never mind the simple physical prospect of moving when lockdowns are in effect.

A particular writer on an investing site I read articles on was ringing the alarm bells back in Jan about the market collapse coming from this. So far dead on. I need to see what his latest projections are.

[dougrz]

More articles on various investing/biz sites discussing longer term shutdowns and such.

My thinking has been, when we see these articles go to, "may never return, end of life as we know it," we'd be close to a botttom. But I have to keep in mind, that's from a business cycle viewpoint. But this isn't a business cycle problem. It's an external, uncorrelated problem that doesn't respond to the business cycle.

Difficult to call.

[twotimer]

https://markets.businessinsider.com/...0-3-1029009784


Here ya go...

[oldno7]

I've been telling my realtor friends the same. People aren't going to be buying with wealth evaporating and uncertainty reigning and job security suddenly in question. Never mind the simple physical prospect of moving when lockdowns are in effect.

A particular writer on an investing site I read articles on was ringing the alarm bells back in Jan about the market collapse coming from this. So far dead on. I need to see what his latest projections are.

I think this will be led by commercial business.

Banks do not want to foreclose on housing, they have a recent bad memory of that.

Debt forgiveness by banks(monthly mortgage payments) for up to a year would be a prudent banking move, here.

BUT--business' often live paycheck to paycheck as well, there will be little forgiveness on commercial loans, IMO

SBA loans are just that--loans.

I don't see going deeper in debt as relief.

[dougrz]

I think this will be led by commercial business.

Banks do not want to foreclose on housing, they have a recent bad memory of that.

I decided not to buy in today. Too many negative articles read late last night and this morning. Too much uncertainty, still not close to bottom until positive test numbers hit 50k, 100k in my mind and I have to be disciplined about that.