Stocks

[oldno7]

sold 2nd half just over +6%

Now hopefully fill the gap and buy again

[oldno7]

VSTO--that is all

[oldno7]

And MAN---Did I miss HUI

[oldno7]

The high for VSTO should be in for the day(should, it's strong right now)

I'm looking for another buy signal, if it doesn't run away from me.

[oldno7]

The high for VSTO should be in for the day(should, it's strong right now)

I'm looking for another buy signal, if it doesn't run away from me.

No chance to re buy from 20%

Now up 31%

[oldno7]

No chance to re buy from 20%

Now up 31%

Now dropping, I might just get another buy signal today.

[dougr]

Nice work. I have a different style, looking for distressed names and holding longer.

I have several bank preferred limit orders in, trying to catch some downdrafts. Also put in an $8.10 limit order on HMLP, my favorite natural gas play. Whatever I get would be a year holding or so.

[oldno7]

I only use limit orders with an occasional stop order to exit but hopefully if all goes good, a limit order there as well.

I don't know anyone else who day trades like I do either.

I've tried teaching a fellow bogleyite and I think he does ok when playing by the rules.

But it's been a year long project.

AND--it's taken that long to get him to quit reading news stories to me.

[dougr]

...

[twotimer]

VSTO--that is all

No kidding! My God...an investment just a week ago would have doubled your money. Looks like you're not the only one playing on this one, eh?

It had a happy home between 10 and 12. I'm gonna read up about this company right now.

[dougrz]

I'm getting concerned this whole event may be more prolonged than we think. Like months of shutdowns. In which case, the market suffers massive more losses from here.

Old and two and others, thoughts.

[twotimer]

I'm getting concerned this whole event may be more prolonged than we think. Like months of shutdowns. In which case, the market suffers massive more losses from here.

Old and two and others, thoughts.

Well...my first thought is, do you get any sleep? Hell, I haven't the slightest idea how long this will go on. Optimistically, I'd like to think the warm weather dies the whole thing down and everything opens back up in a couple weeks, maybe less.

These people need to get back to work. "Government handouts" or not, I think the pressure to back off these closures will heat up quick. Maybe they'll issue new "guidelines".

I think the stock market WANTS to get going, but it's the day traders with the in-n-out steering it right now. But when people get back to work it'll be robust and more of the cash sitting on the sidelines will come in. I'm hopeful that before the middle of April things will be generally normal again.

I think it might take until the end of summer before the Dow gets anywhere near 25. I think the money will come back in measured and cautious, not in giant wads. Personally, I'm going to be investing considerably...and it'll likely all get dumped in at one time. While it's true that some people are really hurting, this is also an opportunity that would be foolish to ignore. Triumph and tragedy, huh?

[oldno7]

The crash of 1929 saw a 46% market drop.

The crash of 1987 saw a 34% market drop.

Our current low is -29%

I've mentioned before, the daily rate of decline is historic in the sense that the current rate exceeds both 1929 and 1987 in daily rate--thats huge.

So we are in uncharted waters.

It can realistically be argued that we have already declined more than half of the total potential move.

At the beginning of the crash, the first 16% drop, the underlying structure of the market was in tact, we were still adding jobs, unemployment at all time lows and GDP rising.

At this point--that has all changed. shuttering most business is going to have a very negative effect.

So all the words and bravado of I told ya so's concerning the markets are worthless and bullshit.

Now if one is making money using well thought out market analysis, they would be the winner.

In other words, here--money talks and bullshit walks.

My strategy(based on actual money invested, not just wet dreams and wild ass predictions) has been to buy the lows.

My trading style allows just that.

I'm currently 90% re invested and looking for 1 or 2 more new lows.

I don't want to be holding cash when the market bottoms out and begins to rally.

I may have spent my 100% of available funds prior to the low but I will be all in.

I believe it is a sound strategy and it works for me.

So the only corresponding markets we can look at for reference are 1929(46% decline) and 1987(34% decline)

I'll play the odds that we are within 10% of the low and yes, my money is where my mouth is.

[Iceaxe]

Remember what 9-11 did to the markets and economy? Well that is going to make this look like child's play.

Climb-Utah.com

[oldno7]

First circuit breaker just hit

[dougr]

Remember what 9-11 did to the markets and economy? Well that is going to make this look like child's play.

Did you mean the reverse? "This is going to make that look like child's play." I was just looking at the 9-11 selloff the other day for comparison: around 17%. Markets were closed for 6 days, then reopened to large selloffs. We're now down 30%+, and I'm thinking 15k-ish, 10k-ish if we have a slow motion spread that keeps activity down till the July/August timeline mentioned the other day at the White House briefing.

The great unknown and risk is this: it's not business and market forces here. It's govt action. Even in a worst case scenario, a few hundred thousand deaths doesn't warrant a 50% or 2/3 decline in the market. But shuttering the economy by govt edict does. And therein lies the root of the impossibility in predicting this.

[dougr]

At this point--that has all changed. shuttering most business is going to have a very negative effect.

I'm currently 90% re invested and looking for 1 or 2 more new lows.

I don't want to be holding cash when the market bottoms out and begins to rally.

I may have spent my 100% of available funds prior to the low but I will be all in.

Noted, and we may bottom any day. It's when fear is at maximum, and that happens when the unknown is maximum, that a bottom comes in. We have several unknowns floating around: 1, actual medical risk, 2 time of shutdowns, 3 oil shock and bks playing out, and 4 election risk. Hell of a confluence of events, and all are total unknowns at the moment.

[oldno7]

Noted, and we may bottom any day. It's when fear is at maximum, and that happens when the unknown is maximum, that a bottom comes in. We have several unknowns floating around: 1, actual medical risk, 2 time of shutdowns, 3 oil shock and bks playing out, and 4 election risk. Hell of a confluence of events, and all are total unknowns at the moment.

I know most here are buy and hold investors.

On a million dollar account--you're down a house.

Yes this started non nonchalant and has grown exponentially in perceived severity.

I would just encourage folks to dollar cost average in at this point because the largest % of drop should be in.

Those trying to hit the exact bottom, HOW?

Luck is the only way to achieve that.

Most traders are awaiting capitulation but if one has been paying attention, we had one on 2-28(most volume in history)

Why didn't that stop the decline

So are you expecting another? Might happen/might not.

Are you willing to hold your money for an all or nothing buy in?

Your odds would be much greater in Vegas(except they're closed)

[dougr]

Are you willing to hold your money for an all or nothing buy in?

Your odds would be much greater in Vegas(except they're closed)

All good points. I'm looking for what I perceive as the max level of medical fear. And that will be potentially decoupled from the stock market, which is looking for max level of business fear. So I might miss the bottom.

Max medical fear I'd guess will come as widespread testing rolls out. Where we'll see an explosion in active case numbers. 5k cases in a country of 1/3 billion people? Silly low, and yet this national reaction so far. Imagine when that's 50k cases in 2 or 3 weeks. By then, terror awash, and the market bludgeoned lower.

Then I'll have to make a decision. It's not a decision for me yet since I'm strongly making a directional call at the moment.

[Iceaxe]

Did you mean the reverse? "This is going to make that look like child's play."

Yeah that's what I meant... look at what 9-11 did to the economy and times it by at least 10.

And I'm not just talking stocks. This is going to bankrupt numerous small businesses and families.

My dad was supposed to pick up a new Corvette this weekend and he just canceled... my daughter was looking at purchasing a new house this week and that was put on hold... trickle down in reverse... and my family members don't live paycheck to paycheck like most families. This is going to devastate the economy.