Stocks

[rockgremlin]

"I get nervous when people get greedy; I get greedy when people get nervous." Warren Buffett

Beautiful quote.

And there's a lot of nervous folks out there right now...

[twotimer]

watching F

Indeed, so am I. Haven't bought any yet, but I'm going to. It's Ford for those of you that may be wondering.

[dougr]

https://www.laredopetro.com/news-and...sentation.aspx

LPI, whacked to sub-$1. But I'm seeing no debt coming due until 2023, and a large % of sales hedged. Potential name to rally.

Pages 17 and 18.

[dougr]

http://www.parsleyenergy.com/investo...s/default.aspx

PE, whacked 70% YTD. Pages 14, 17, and 25. Minimal near term debt, decent % hedged at around $45/bbl by my estimates. Not sure if I'll take a nibble on either of these, but I'll certainly watch them to see if my hunch plays out over the next several months.

Both of these plays are only hedged through end of 2020. I wouldn't expect Saudi Arabia and Russia to be able to keep the price war going that long, both need money. But who knows.

[dougrz]

Futures pointing to decent open. Some good news out of Wuhan. Dollar rallying vs the Yen specifically.

[dougrz]

https://www.laredopetro.com/news-and...sentation.aspx

LPI, whacked to sub-$1. But I'm seeing no debt coming due until 2023, and a large % of sales hedged. Potential name to rally.

+110% today.

The market is looking for manageable debt in oil, believing bankruptcies and consolidation are coming. Sadly a good chance this marks the beginning of the end for small US shale as the dominant producer in the world. Not because of prices alone, but the boom-bust cycle potentially twice happening is going to make financing awfully hard (read: expensive) to drum up for a third cycle.

For lenders, when the threat of Saudi pumping and dumping on a whim exists and has now happened twice, it's no longer just a threat.

[dougrz]

http://www.parsleyenergy.com/investo...s/default.aspx

PE, whacked 70% YTD. Pages 14, 17, and 25. Minimal near term debt, decent % hedged at around $45/bbl by my estimates.

Modest +13% today.

[dougr]

Wed looks like -500 on the open.

[dougrz]

Corona hysteria is spreading. More rate cuts, giant tax and spend deal from Congress in the works, even more upped pumping from the Saudis announced today, Olympics cancellation on the table, larger lockdown in Italy.

1/2 the country and the media want the market to crash further. It will crash further.

[oldno7]

1/2 the country and the media want the market to crash further. It will crash further.

This is more likely than not.

In the end it might actually help Trump.

Past Presidents would have thrown there hands in the air, some might have even wondered what magic wand someone might have.

That magic wand is a complete understanding of business and capitalism.

Trump won't let the economy tank like the dems and fake news are doing to the stock market.

The underlying basics are still sound and strong.

GDP rose in 2019, over 2018.

Job numbers keep gaining and unemployment keeps dropping.

The markets are on a historic 11 year bull run.

It was to be expected to have a correction, a historic one at that.(in terms of % of daily decline)

It would be easy to turn bearish here but Trump is the kicker--he has a magic wand...

I would venture a guess and only a guess that with this historic drop may come a historic recovery.

This President is active and knowledgeable about the free markets, he doesn't throw his hands in the air and say get used to it, jobs aren't coming back.

[oldno7]

-800ish to open

[rockgremlin]

Today's carnage:

DJIA



S&P 500

[dougrz]

Tomorrow shaping up for -1000. I do believe we'll hit 20k soon.

Bottom is hard to call. No broad selloff is normal and predictable, but this one especially so. My gut tells me we're going to 15k. Just a Shiller PE call, really, as the multiple will be on greatly reduced earnings.

Remember, it's not what you think will happen, it's what everyone else thinks will happen that matters.

[rockgremlin]

I think it goes to 21,000. Maybe lower.

This is full panic selling right now. No end in sight.

Nostra-gremlin

This prediction was made on 2/25, and the panic selling has only intensified.

[dougrz]

Nostra-gremlin

This prediction was made on 2/25, and the panic selling has only intensified.

Give that boy a cee-gar.

[oldno7]

-1500, so far this morning

[oldno7]

and dropping

[oldno7]

I mentioned this once before.

Historic, daily rate of decline;

1929---.67%
2020--.96%(as of 3-11

[oldno7]

first circuit breaker

[dougrz]

Going to get very ugly. We haven't scratched the surface on a societal lockdown to the level of Italy's. More shoes to drop. I suspect MLB delaying the season start for a few months is next. Then mass college campus closings. Etc

The drip of news is worse for the market, vs all shoes on one day.

I'm watching bank preferred shares. For example, BML-L, BML-H, etc. In the 2008 crisis they were rocked, to low single digits in many cases. I'll start getting interested in the mid teens.

20k by tomorrow I'd think is reasonable. I see no reason for any kind of rally.