Stocks

[oldno7]

going down another 1000 this morning

[dougr]

I'm still mostly in cash. I did sell two options plays yesterday, Jan. 2021 puts on AMD and UBER.

We know this is a manufactured hysteria by the media and Dems, now joined by the official Chicom party statement blaming the US for the spread. But the hysteria is doing real damage to economic activity. Investors have to pay attention to that.

[oldno7]

Would not want to be an "investor", here!

I'm thinking we run back up over 27,000, then be careful.

[dougrz]

If these were normal times, one thing. But this is an election year, with purposeful misinformation and FUD being spread to tank not just the markets, but actual economic activity.

Therefore it's hard to put a finger on how far we go. But I'm going to be patient and make some money. Note I didn't say "a patient." I said "patient."

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsan...nging-in-china

^Because this truth will eventually win out.

"Then he added a twist. Outside of Wuhan — the city at the epicenter of the outbreak — the death rate in China has been much lower: about 0.7%. That's fewer than 1 fatality per 100 cases."

"Similarly, a study released by China's Center for Disease Control last month found that if you factor out all the data from Hubei province, where Wuhan is located, the fatality rate in the rest of China drops to 0.4%."

[oldno7]

So--we aren't going to die this month?

Covid 19 only lit the fuse of a bomb that was planted long ago.

I don't see a covid reaction here, I see a market reaction.

[oldno7]

The Stock Market is the only market where, when prices go down, people go running out of the store in a panic.

[Iceaxe]

The Stock Market is the only market where, when prices go down, people go running out of the store in a panic.

^^^Not Me :-)

[rockgremlin]

Market crashes 16% in 9 days...

[oldno7]

I at least hope some will look at history of sharp market declines and act accordingly.^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

[dougr]

The Stock Market is the only market where, when prices go down, people go running out of the store in a panic.

The old adage, "buy low, sell high" isn't easy and is seldom practiced because of that.

If you're highly adventurous, energy is crazy cheap across the board. It's hard to not pound the table at these prices.

ENBL, an energy midstream, is high teens down to $5. Yielding around 25%. I have no knowledge of their issues, but the yield caught my eye. SNP, the largest oil company in the world, yielding 11% with a price/book ratio of 0.6. Just nuts.

ENBL's last conference call: https://seekingalpha.com/article/432...-earnings-call I have a comment/Q posted underneath.

[rockgremlin]

A timely read:

https://www.amazon.com/Markets-Mobs-...1529-192247981

[dougrz]

Add an apparent collapse in oil prices to this virus induced panic. Ostensibly Russia's refusal to go along with OPEC production cuts to prop the price of oil caused Saudi Arabia to essentially declare a price war.

Oil futures on Sunday afternoon are indicating at 25%+ drop in oil prices Monday.

Then add Italy's partial lockdown order this weekend. We might see 20k DJIA by the end of this week. Whether any is justified doesn't matter.

[rockgremlin]

A 6,000 point drop in the Dow in one week?

Have you bought a 5 year supply of toilet paper yet?

[dougrz]

We have a confluence of events being fanned deliberately by the media for one, but institutional Wall St money adamantly wants Biden now, two. Pulling the market down can be done with their large selling. Their money coming in to pick up bargains is what was going to stoke a rally. I don't believe big money wants a rally at this time.

The hysteria about the virus' risk is silly. How the market reacts is real. Best piece of advice I've received as an investor: what's going to happen isn't what you think is going to happen, it's what everyone else thinks is going to happen. A horrific week will be born of that even though I believe it's unwarranted.

I'm sitting on mostly cash and benefit from the selloff I don't want to see. This isn't self serving. This will reveal the power of CNN and MSNBC to drive the market.

[rockgremlin]

I've gotta respectfully disagree with the notion that Wall Street investors want Biden.

Why would Wall Street want a bumbling demential hair sniffer over the very businessman that has been stoking an extended bull market for the last 3 years?

[dougrz]

I've gotta respectfully disagree with the notion that Wall Street investors want Biden.

Large biz wants 3 things: lower corp taxes, open borders, and no restrictions on trade with China. They got the first from Trump. It takes Dems to get the other two. They believe the first can be maintained with sufficient lobbying with Dems in power.

[dougrz]

Futures on Sunday night.

Bond yields Sunday night. This could be an historically ugly day tomorrow.

[oldno7]

Circuit breakers have kicked in, futures is halted.

This could get real ugly, monday.

AND beyond.

[rockgremlin]

The number that has to hold before this gets ugly is 24,709

After that rocks prediction is in site.

Here it comes...

A price war over oil + Coronavirus fears = a perfect storm.

[rockgremlin]

Barrick Gold and Newmont doing reasonably well, and will probably go higher. An increased gold price plus a decrease in fuel costs will benefit gold producers.