Stocks

[dougr]

We might be seeing a repeat of 2008, politically. The market's tumult that year paved the way for Obama and his radicalism. If there is like carnage here, yes, Sanders' vision of anti-markets, anti-biz might be appealing. He only needs to move a few % to win.

I'm a broken record, but the market hadn't priced in the risk a Dem/Sanders sweep. Might have seemed low risk, but with a high penalty factor.

I have to think this selloff is three pronged:

1, virus slowdown sparked it
2, earnings ratio on a CAPE basis (I posted a chart a few weeks ago) was historically lofty
3, Sanders risk

[rockgremlin]

I'm not sure why Sanders (or anybody) would be anti-market. Anybody who has a 401K, IRA, mutual fund, or any other retirement account has a big financial stake in the stock market. Seeing it fail means kissing your retirement nest egg goodbye.

Why would anyone want that?

[oldno7]

I'm not sure why Sanders (or anybody) would be anti-market. Anybody who has a 401K, IRA, mutual fund, or any other retirement account has a big financial stake in the stock market. Seeing it fail means kissing your retirement nest egg goodbye.

Why would anyone want that?

Because they're a democrat and enjoy misery and PROFIT from it.

[oldno7]

The number that has to hold before this gets ugly is 24,709

After that rocks prediction is in site.

Hard 300 point bounce off that # so far

[oldno7]

Well that picture sucks but the math is good.


Down about 16.6% at todays low from all time high.

[Iceaxe]

I have to think this selloff is three pronged:

The big problem right now is all the big traders computer programs and algorithms are set to automatically sell if the market drops to XXX. This causes a cascade which triggers other sell programs algorithms.

Something Trump could do to stop the slide is temporarily suspended all tariffs on China for the next 90 days or so. This Virus has devastated the Chinese economy, which will be devastating to our supply chains and effect our economy. The US has already won the trade war, temporarily suspending tariffs would help the world economy, and it would show all nations that we want them to succeed... let's see if Trump takes my advice... hahaha...

Iceaxe prediction... the Dow will be back above 28,000 before September.

/Bookmarked



Climb-Utah.com

[oldno7]

I think the energy sector is approaching a buying point.

It has been down for several years.

Individual stock I like is Exxon.

A mutual I like that pays a good dividend is EGLCX

I hold next to nothing long term but if Trump goes 4 more years--this sector should do well.

While the market tanks xom +2%

[oldno7]

Very good day to buy the energy sector according to my math.

And I did

[dougrz]

Very good day to buy the energy sector according to my math.

And I did

Which. I entered HMLP, SNP, and OGZPY.

[oldno7]

Which. I entered HMLP, SNP, and OGZPY.

EGLCX
MLPA
XOM

And all 3 pay a dividend as well.

[dougrz]

EGLCX
MLPA
XOM

And all 3 pay a dividend as well.

XOM yielding about 7 is incredible. Historically considered best of breed, but in recent years the market has soured on its capital management.

All the oil cos have political risk with targets on their backs if Dems sweep, but XOM in particular would be the scalp Dems want the most.

But given normal times, you'd expect XOM total return from here to be a double in 7 years or so. 50% in divs, 50% in price appreciation.

[oldno7]

I am solely a trader, I will likely buy and sell these dozens of times in the coming months.

I will try to hold the mutuals a bit as they aren't as volatile as single stocks and with a dividend, a bit of a safe space.

I have a very good system for getting in and out of mutuals and etf's I trade the same as stocks.

But make no mistake--A long term hold on a stock for me would be a week.

Most are traded inter day and most of those, I'm in and out within the first hour and then done for the day.

[dougrz]

But make no mistake--A long term hold on a stock for me would be a week.

Ah, ok. I'm a much longer holder. I rarely if ever hold less than a few months. I do options for short earnings trades and such, but not often anymore.

I'm still wary of the market, thinking the political power of this scam alarmism isn't going to stop soon. Dems and media want this to be Trump's Katrina. They will stop at nothing.

[BasinCruiser]

And there it is. The cannery in the mine has signaled its time to move.

Annnnnnnd...Will you look at that. Biggest one day jump ever.



https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/...s-march-2-2020

[oldno7]

Energy sector up big as well.

XOM--+4.74%
MLPA--+3.14%
EGLCX--+3.11%

[Iceaxe]

Iceaxe prediction... the Dow will be back above 28,000 before September.

Damn... halfway there in one day.

Things will slow down as we near 28,000 but there is nothing fundamentally wrong with our current economy.


Climb-Utah.com

[dougrz]

I'd expect some selling tomorrow. Expectation of Fed stimulus isn't enough to sustain a rally.

[oldno7]

I'd expect some selling tomorrow. Expectation of Fed stimulus isn't enough to sustain a rally.

yep, agree.

Lots of chop to come

[oldno7]

Should open +500ish

[oldno7]

If dow takes out this latest swing low(24,681), expect a rapid selloff.

First target 21,712.