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Thread: Stocks

  1. #1141

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  3. #1142
    Quote Originally Posted by accadacca View Post
    Fake news?
    How about that's not really news... anyone that follows stocks knows to look at the futures market to get a good idea what the market will do when it opens.... I've known that for 40 years... I'm more surprised that the Clinton News Network is just figuring it out.



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  4. #1143
    My prediction... March 23rd was the bottom.

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  6. #1144
    Bogley BigShot oldno7's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by oldno7 View Post
    DOW-1.69%(Since selling -3.89%)

    GDX-0.36%(Since buying 8.14%)

    Spread 12.03%

    No more chinese after today:

    I'm out of GDX for now.

    Dow + 7.73%Day(+3.84%)

    GDX +5.57%day(13.71%)I sold considerably higher than the closing price so my % would be better.

    I also bought it again in the last 15 minutes and sold in the EXT session.

    Chinese done.

    At this point from DOW 29,568 I'm up about 14%

    I believe technical trading(math) will always outperform the markets.

    I posted everything real time or sooner.
    I'm not Spartacus


    It'll come back.


    Professional Mangler of Grammar

    Guns don't kill people--Static Ropes Do!!

    Who Is John Galt?

  7. #1145
    Mountain Man
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    For me, the next month or so will dictate if I get entirely out of equities.

    The cascading risks are these:

    -deep recession lasts into 2021
    -Dems sweep
    -increased tax and regulatory burden makes biz recovery difficult
    - "relief" programs, UBI, expanded welfare create a large, angry class living directly on the govt payroll and voting for more
    -amnesty and some form of open borders spikes number of indigents further, cements permanent Dem rule

    We're so close to the precipice, falling into an abyss of Dem govt hell. What a confluence of events. I've always viewed the risk/reward profile of this year decidedly risky for equities, and the setup is even riskier now.

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  9. #1146
    Quote Originally Posted by dougr View Post
    For me, the next month or so will dictate if I get entirely out of equities.

    The cascading risks are these:

    -deep recession lasts into 2021
    -Dems sweep
    -increased tax and regulatory burden makes biz recovery difficult
    - "relief" programs, UBI, expanded welfare create a large, angry class living directly on the govt payroll and voting for more
    -amnesty and some form of open borders spikes number of indigents further, cements permanent Dem rule

    We're so close to the precipice, falling into an abyss of Dem govt hell. What a confluence of events. I've always viewed the risk/reward profile of this year decidedly risky for equities, and the setup is even riskier now.

    Respectfully disagree with most of this. If the Dems put up a juggernaut candidate worthy of toppling Trump then I'd agree with you. But Biden is so far removed from a threat to Trump that it's comical. Even all of my stalwart liberal friends have at this point conceded to another 4 years of the Trump Train.
    It's only "science" if it supports the narrative.

  10. #1147
    Bogley BigShot oldno7's Avatar
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    Only a couple things that may slow down the markets.

    No business running, Country at a standstill.(medical sector might be good)

    New record high unemployement

    Oil at 70 year lows

    Inflation/hyperinflation

    But it has shrugged those off in the last few days.

    My system doesn't care about any of that.
    I'm not Spartacus


    It'll come back.


    Professional Mangler of Grammar

    Guns don't kill people--Static Ropes Do!!

    Who Is John Galt?

  11. #1148
    Bogley BigShot oldno7's Avatar
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    I bought GDX last night and this morning--I've locked in profits

    Bought VSTO this morning--locked in profits.

    All with minimal risk.

    BUT risk.
    I'm not Spartacus


    It'll come back.


    Professional Mangler of Grammar

    Guns don't kill people--Static Ropes Do!!

    Who Is John Galt?

  12. #1149
    Never forget... Mark Cuban predicted the US economy would calapse if Trump was elected President...

    Mark Cuban predicts 'world-changing' innovation stemming from outbreak, keeps 'door open' to 2020 bid

    https://www.foxnews.com/politics/mar...en-to-2020-bid

  13. #1150
    The Wisconsin state Supreme Court loss tonight for the sitting conservative justice endorsed by Trump bodes ill for Nov. A Dem took the governorship last year as well.

    Plays into my thinking of selling out of equities as Nov approaches. I sold down about 12% today unrelated to this result.

  14. #1151
    The fund manager survey is always interesting to review. These guys drive a lot of capital around.

  15. #1152
    Bogley BigShot oldno7's Avatar
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    Buying and selling gold almost daily.

    Huge run up so far--the fastest per day in history.

    Average 2.72% per day, prior to today.

    ok--no more chinese.
    I'm not Spartacus


    It'll come back.


    Professional Mangler of Grammar

    Guns don't kill people--Static Ropes Do!!

    Who Is John Galt?

  16. #1153

  17. #1154
    I'm sticking to my belief that we retest the late March lows. Recall the market was historically expensive just before this, 150% total market cap vs GDP. We're at a better level now, if we were still humming. But add on the mass economic carnage these lockdowns have caused? Lower to go.

    I'm still thinking Dow 15k, S&P 1750 range is the low. Why that? About 50% of peak, would bring total mkt cap vs GDP to 75%, with a 10, 20, 30% contraction of GDP making for about 100% vs GDP, with room for uncertainty and fear.

    The only wrench in this theory? Whole lot of new money looking for some place to go.

  18. #1155
    Bogley BigShot oldno7's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dougrz View Post

    The only wrench in this theory? Trump!.
    Fixed it for ya.
    I'm not Spartacus


    It'll come back.


    Professional Mangler of Grammar

    Guns don't kill people--Static Ropes Do!!

    Who Is John Galt?

  19. #1156
    Bogley BigShot oldno7's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dougrz View Post
    Via GLD?


    GDX
    GOLD
    NEM

    all at or near 100% from lows
    I'm not Spartacus


    It'll come back.


    Professional Mangler of Grammar

    Guns don't kill people--Static Ropes Do!!

    Who Is John Galt?

  20. #1157
    Quote Originally Posted by oldno7 View Post
    Fixed it for ya.
    ^^^This^^^

    One of these days folks are going to figure out betting against Trump is a losing wager.

    But some folks are just slow learner's...

  21. #1158
    Bogley BigShot oldno7's Avatar
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    Not a stock so this spot will have to do.


    Today is the last trading day for May oil futures contract.
    It's how the big boys buy their oil.
    Since it is the last trading day, contract owners of an oil future are required to take physical possession.
    Ordinarily this is a good thing, today, there is no space anywhere to store more crude so a selloff began.
    Those owning futures contracts are left with selling at HUGE losses.
    For the first time in history, a commodity has traded at a negative value as these guys couldn't give oil away.
    Current price is -$36ish
    If you know how leverage in commodities works, this is mind numbing.
    I'm not Spartacus


    It'll come back.


    Professional Mangler of Grammar

    Guns don't kill people--Static Ropes Do!!

    Who Is John Galt?

  22. #1159
    Quote Originally Posted by oldno7 View Post
    Not a stock so this spot will have to do.


    Today is the last trading day for May oil futures contract.
    It's how the big boys buy their oil.
    Since it is the last trading day, contract owners of an oil future are required to take physical possession.
    Ordinarily this is a good thing, today, there is no space anywhere to store more crude so a selloff began.
    Those owning futures contracts are left with selling at HUGE losses.
    For the first time in history, a commodity has traded at a negative value as these guys couldn't give oil away.
    Current price is -$36ish
    If you know how leverage in commodities works, this is mind numbing.

    This is crazy.

    We all know that oil will come back...it always does, the world cannot run without it. But when...?
    It's only "science" if it supports the narrative.

  23. #1160
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