Stocks

[dougrz]

Agree with everything you wrote. We have 2, or 3, variables at play. Virus fear, actual economic damage of the shutdowns, and oh by the way oil patch bankruptcies and dislocations.

If the shutdowns go 2 or 3 months, the leveraging blowout could easily portend a Great Depression 2.

Not worth the cost of saving even 200k or 500k people when you consider the suicides, lost wealth to pay for modern medicine going forward, destroyed families, children not born because of, empowerment of China, etc.

This is a dream scenario for the communist wing in this country. The nail in the coffin of Western Civilization potentially.

That said, we're on it. Meaning private industry and the public, and I believe we'll prevail.

[dougrz]

A Fed governor tonight said we might see 30% unemployment and loss of 1/2 of GDP by end of Q2. Market is going to violently sell off this week.

If we did actually see 30% unemployment? Sub 10k on the Dow and a depression. We have neither the personal nor national fortitude to survive such a calamity. We also don't have the money. These trillions planned are already seriously damaging our wealth and future standard of living. At some point this turns into spiking interest rates and hyperinflation.

We either beat this medically quickly or we go down. Never thought I'd say that about this virus. Though I should have known, since the reaction to this virus has been clearly coming for weeks.

But the conscious political decisions to put the country on a track to destroy everything and everyone in order to save either thousands or tens or hundreds of thousands is calamitous.

[twotimer]

A Fed governor tonight said we might see 30% unemployment and loss of 1/2 of GDP by end of Q2. Market is going to violently sell off this week.

If we did actually see 30% unemployment? Sub 10k on the Dow and a depression. We have neither the personal nor national fortitude to survive such a calamity. We also don't have the money. These trillions planned are already seriously damaging our wealth and future standard of living. At some point this turns into spiking interest rates and hyperinflation.

We either beat this medically quickly or we go down. Never thought I'd say that about this virus. Though I should have known, since the reaction to this virus has been clearly coming for weeks.

But the conscious political decisions to put the country on a track to destroy everything and everyone in order to save either thousands or tens or hundreds of thousands is calamitous.

I'm gonna run counter to you here, dougrz...I don't believe this for a moment. Just because everybody's been ordered to take some time off doesn't mean it's all going to crash and burn. I firmly believe once we get back to work there will be a quick recovery. It's like when you go on vacation...it's all just waiting for you to come back.

No shortage of doomsayers out there, mental hypochondriacs as I call them. In regards to the stock market, I'm glad this happened...everybody knew it had gotten too expensive and a bear market was coming. This is what triggered it. Of course it was big, the DOW damn near doubled in 5 years...now that done its thing we'll climb right back up. Maybe something like this is a cleansing, y'know? Shakes out the loose teeth.

Everybody's just waiting for Trump and his team to say the worst is behind us, then it's over. Of course this is just my opinion...but I've always been an optimistic kind of dude.

If the Army had armed soldiers at every intersection or entire cities were going up in mushroom clouds...then I'd say we have a real problem. But it's just a nasty flu bug that kills old folks and we're doing our best to stop them from dying all over the place. That's it...the USA isn't going to collapse.

[oldno7]

I'm gonna run counter to you here, dougrz...I don't believe this for a moment. Just because everybody's been ordered to take some time off doesn't mean it's all going to crash and burn. I firmly believe once we get back to work there will be a quick recovery. It's like when you go on vacation...it's all just waiting for you to come back.

No shortage of doomsayers out there, mental hypochondriacs as I call them. In regards to the stock market, I'm glad this happened...everybody knew it had gotten too expensive and a bear market was coming. This is what triggered it. Of course it was big, the DOW damn near doubled in 5 years...now that done its thing we'll climb right back up. Maybe something like this is a cleansing, y'know? Shakes out the loose teeth.

Everybody's just waiting for Trump and his team to say the worst is behind us, then it's over. Of course this is just my opinion...but I've always been an optimistic kind of dude.

If the Army had armed soldiers at every intersection or entire cities were going up in mushroom clouds...then I'd say we have a real problem. But it's just a nasty flu bug that kills old folks and we're doing our best to stop them from dying all over the place. That's it...the USA isn't going to collapse.

What the dems can't get through their piglosi heads is that business creates jobs, PERIOD

If business' are destroyed in this crash the time for recovery will be 10 fold as business rebuilds.
Meanwhile employment is gone because business is slowly coming on line.

If business' is helped to the extent of being solid and viable when the virus is gone, the recovery can be quick.

Business has to use the money to stay afloat, not insider stock buying.

[oldno7]

I was very much against the GM bailout because it was majority owned by UAW.

The bailout went straight to UAW and now GM is in the same situation.

This needs to be a smart bailout--not a money giveaway

[oldno7]

Futures are 0ff 850

Interesting oil had an early drop but has come back and pretty much trading on the open.

I bet on oil last week, I'm already in the money and won't lose but I hope this market gains some legs to the upside.

[oldno7]

I'd like a billion share day with a positive close tomorrow.(DOW)

Is that too much to ask?

[oldno7]

DOW dropped over 1000 in futures AND now is up 400.

Oil hung pretty steady through the night and is also up.

Now in the DOW

[dougrz]

Fed announced commercial paper QE this morn, prompting the reversal. This isn't a market with price discovery, where technicals or fundamentals weigh. It's just a machine reacting to external news and levers that are unpredictable.

[twotimer]

Well they're doing everything they can, eh? It won't be truly over until the restrictions are lifted and we just have to live with taking the hits...the hits being people get sick and old folks drop dead all over the place.

I haven't bought a nickel of stock yet...I reckon it'll bounce around a little less violently before it takes off again. I'm only 56, so I'm buying to hold.

Glad to see it going up though...everybody's just waiting.

[dougr]

We are getting closer to the point of a bond collapse. It's either 75 minutes from now or 75 years, to narrow down the time frame. Yields on bonds are low. Stocks are volatile. Money is looking to go somewhere for a return. As the govt prints in these stimulus bills, there comes a point where money says, "Cash is getting less valuable with all this new money being created. Therefore I need more return." That's when bond yields rise (prices decrease), and stocks sell off in response as they need to price in the less valuable money they're producing. A spiral of hyperinflation. Which govt doesn't even remotely consider in this massive spending binge.

There is no wisdom in this country. No pillars of sound money. No base of discipline. It's just a wild ride from one momentary excess to another. Where celebrities have more say than farmers. Amongst many examples of the lack of cultural wisdom.

[oldno7]

Up just over 10% in this mornings VSTO trade.

Now to see if it drops down enough to give another buy

[dougr]

https://www.bloombergquint.com/marke...-help-from-u-s

The bond collapse might by closer to 75 mins. News like that ^ this weekend must have spooked the Fed into announcing this extra buying this morning.

Treacherous times.

[oldno7]

Lots more interest in bullets than oil, so far this morning.

might not get a chance to re buy

[oldno7]

https://www.bloombergquint.com/marke...-help-from-u-s

The bond collapse might by closer to 75 mins. News like that ^ this weekend must have spooked the Fed into announcing this extra buying this morning.

Treacherous times.

followed closely by commercial real estate.

[twotimer]

If the Army had armed soldiers at every intersection .

Uh yeah, OK...gettin' close here in Denver, that's for damn sure.

Thankfully, Trump seems to be fully aware that things are getting out of hand...based on what I heard him say today. Hopefully he'll kick the doors open on this thing quick then the Governors will have to follow suit.

[dougr]

@twotimer, never noticed you were in Denver. As am I (western 'burbs). We should meet up at some point.

[twotimer]

@twotimer, never noticed you were in Denver. As am I (western 'burbs). We should meet up at some point.

Yes indeed. I'm really busy with work right now, I'll PM ya when I slow down...which may be sooner rather than later 'cuz of this stupid prick throwing down his edicts.

I'm getting more and more convinced that the Chinese and the liberal Illuminati set this whole thing up. They dropped a nuke right in Trump's lap. He's being judged heavily in how he handles this. I was wondering what was next after their Impeachment scheme failed...this came hot on it's heels. I'm not a conspiracy type guy, but for years now these bowling pins just line right up. Anyway, I'm pretty pissed off right now...you might have to listen to me rant!

[oldno7]

Stock market has dropped a bit over 38% as of yesterday.

This morning dow up over 900pts.

[oldno7]

VSTO will gap up this morning.

I generally sell gaps up, especially when an overbought condition exist and look to re buy on a signal after the gap has been filled.

Over 90% of gaps get filled, it's just math.

And not all gaps are created equal.