Page 37 of 70 FirstFirst ... 27353637383947 ... LastLast
Results 721 to 740 of 1389

Thread: Stocks

  1. #721
    Quote Originally Posted by dougrz View Post
    The author I pointed to does not. He just argues against index investing at these elevated values. I'm the one laying out the Dem sweep risk.


    Too much confidence on our side, methinks.
    I stand corrected.

    I hear you with the too much confidence thing...back in '12 Romney was certainly a weak candidate, but I was floored when Obama beat him so handily. Indeed, nothing is a sure thing no matter how much one may think it is.

    But this time around...I think the behavior of the media will work in Trumps favor. They've been exposed...It's easier to win people over with persuasive speeches than foaming at the mouth rage. Also, those that would replace him are severely more undesirable than he is.

    Predictions? I think as the Dems continue to flop around, the Dow will hit 32 before the election.
    Suddenly my feet are feet of mud
    It all goes slo-mo
    I don't know why I am crying
    Am I suspended in Gaffa?

  2. # ADS
    Circuit advertisement
    Join Date
    Always
    Location
    Advertising world
    Posts
    Many
     

  3. #722
    Quote Originally Posted by twotimer View Post
    I hear you with the too much confidence thing...back in '12 Romney was certainly a weak candidate, but I was floored when Obama beat him so handily.
    Truly. I worked the last 4 or 5 weeks of that election out of a Romney office in my area. Really slick operation. Was sure we'd win. Gallup had us up 7 nationally iirc 2 or 3 weeks before the vote. Was a gut punch shock.

    Contrasted with working the last 5 or 6 weeks out of a Trump office. Shoestring barebones setup and we won, while I was zero confident that final day.
    I think the behavior of the media will work in Trumps favor. They've been exposed...It's easier to win people over with persuasive speeches than foaming at the mouth rage.
    And that's the major reason Trump does well, yes. Exposure of them. The Rose McGowan tweet today being a prime example.

  4. #723
    Students of history will know that good stock years ALWAYS follow great years, and we just finished one of the best years ever.... So there is that...

    Climb-Utah.com

  5. #724
    Mountain Man
    Join Date
    Apr 2010
    Location
    Heart: Escalante. Reality: CO
    Posts
    510
    Quote Originally Posted by Iceaxe View Post
    Students of history will know that good stock years ALWAYS follow great years, and we just finished one of the best years ever.... So there is that...
    It's always dangerous in investing to say, "but this time it's different." Granted. But this country _is_ different than before. We're in a non-shooting civil war, with the anti-American radical left stronger and closer to full power than ever, and a larger proportion of the population filled with genuinely anti-American immigrants giving that movement serious momentum. These aren't normal times.

    Absent that, we live in a time of exponential productivity growth from advances in science and tech. We've never seen the possibilities we have now. But leftists and their 3rd world voters have an agenda.

  6. #725
    Don't look now, but Goldman Sachs is saying the economy is nearly recession-proof

    Just months after almost everyone on Wall Street worried that a recession was just around the corner, Goldman Sachs said a downturn is unlikely over the next several years.

    In fact, the firm's economists stopped just short of saying that the U.S. economy is recession-proof.

    An analysis Goldman conducted of the current potential risks to growth show that they are mostly muted. The report found that the pillars of the "Great Moderation" that began in the 1980s — low levels of volatility marked by sustainable growth and muted inflation, interrupted only by the financial crisis more than a decade ago — are still standing.

    Investors could be excused for getting a little nervous over such calls, as optimism also was heavy in late-2007, just as the economy was about to enter the worst of the financial crisis.

    "Overall, the changes underlying the Great Moderation appear intact, and we see the economy as structurally less recession-prone today," Goldman economists Jan Hatzius and David Mericle wrote. "While new risks could emerge, none of the main sources of recent recessions — oil shocks, inflationary overheating, and financial imbalances — seem too concerning for now. As a result, the prospects for a soft landing look better than widely thought."

    That view is a sea change from some of the fears that permeated Wall Street in late summer and early fall.

    Worries surged that the U.S.-China trade war, global economic weakness and geopolitical risks from Brexit and other sources would act as severe drags on growth.

    A yield curve inversion, or a point where short-term government bond yields rise above their longer-duration counterparts, helped stoke those fears. An inversion has correctly predicted each of the last seven recessions, and in August a New York Fed indicator that tracks the yield curve put risk of a downturn at 38%, the highest since the financial crisis.

    However, those fears have ebbed as the tariff rhetoric has cooled and the yield curve has reverted. The New York Fed tracker now puts recession risk over the next 12 months at just 24.6%, about where it was in February.

    Read the rest here:*http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/marke...77I?li=BBnbfcN

    If this keeps up the democrats are toast in 2020 elections and beyond...

    Climb-Utah.com

  7. #726
    Bogley BigShot oldno7's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    We're all here, because we ain't all there.
    Posts
    19,424
    We all agree on the fact the economy is the strongest in recent, if not total history.

    Great job to President Trump in the orchestration of this

    Now---having said that, can we all agree that no market goes straight up or inversely--straight down, over an extended period?

    There are many variations of investors as well as many variations of traders.

    So-you say, aren't you talking about one in the same? I'm not.

    An investor buys "things" for a long term advantage. Small price reductions in "things" over the coarse of ownership are considered normal and to be expected.

    An investor never has a fear of market fluctuations because they know the "thing" they bought has enough value that it's price will come back from a correction, only to likely increase in value over it's previous price.

    A trader of "things" buys the exact same item as an investor does but plans to take his money out as the new high value of the "thing" is achieved.

    The trader then knows how to buy many more of the same "things" at a lower price.

    ie. both start out with 100 "things", the investor see's his "things" go up in price and is reassured as the value of his "things" declines, they are good "things" and history tells me the value will come back and then some. Investor only needs to have patience, which in "thing" ownership terminology, means Time.

    The trader buys his 100 "things" and also is enjoying watching the price of these "things" increase.

    BUT--the trader has a system/method that tells him when the cost of his "things" is nearly maxed out for the time being.

    Trader sells his things at a profit, investor, knowing "things" will always come back, holds onto his.

    Both individuals--Investor/Trader at one time had the value of 120 "things" when the "thing" market was increasing.

    Investor still has his 100 "things" but they are losing value, they once were valued at 120 "things" but in a week or 2 there value has decreased to 108 "things"

    Trader sold his 100 "things" for the value of 120 "things"(likely only 117-118 "things")

    While Investor is watching his "thing" value decrease on a daily basis, Trader has the value of 120 "things" in the bank.

    Since trader has a system/method to exit near a high, he has the same system/method to buy back in at a low.

    So the "thing" market drops 10%, as "thing" markets often do.

    Trader has money sitting in the bank looking for a good discount.

    As price drops 10%, trader now buys 132 "things" for the exact same money that he just sold 120 "things" for.

    So at this point, trader has the same amount of money he had when he sold at 120 "thing" but he now has 132 "things with no additional cash outlay on his part.

    Investor at this point has the value of 108 things, he's still ahead of his original cash outlay and life is good and he only has to look at his "thing" value 4 times a year.

    So when "thing" value goes to 125, investor says--wooohooo, I'm making money, and indeed that is a fact.

    The trader on the other hand just quietly smiles and says--good job!!
    I'm not Spartacus


    It'll come back.


    Professional Mangler of Grammar

    Guns don't kill people--Static Ropes Do!!

    Who Is John Galt?

  8. #727
    Mountain Man
    Join Date
    Apr 2010
    Location
    Heart: Escalante. Reality: CO
    Posts
    510
    Quote Originally Posted by Iceaxe View Post
    Don't look now, but Goldman Sachs is saying the economy is nearly recession-proof
    I read this article a few days ago and couldn't help but think back to the media drumbeat a few months ago trying to scare people to stop spending to induce a recession.

    I know I sound like a broken record, ice, but I keep beating the drum of immigration. Given an American America, I believe your analysis is correct. But 1 to 1.5 mil per year, with chaining on top of that, irrevocably and profoundly moves the electorate in the, not just Dem's favor, but hard anti-American left's favor. All bets off given that.

    What we see as the core Dem positions today are treasonous, communist, and nation suicide level, but that's 1/2 the country now- fueled by the twin evils of leftist schooling making the leaders and immigration making the followers.

    My conservative 50-something cousin called me a few months ago, asking to host/hire his college-aged son for a month next summer. Said he's losing him to leftist brainwashing at Virginia Tech, maybe a month of me ("educated," "well spoken") could get through to him. Wash, rinse, repeat x25 million kids from middle American value homes.

  9. #728
    I'm 60 y/o, I only need four more years out of Trump and I can take my pile of gold and retire like a king to a Caribbean Beach of my choosing.

    I feel sorry for the direction of the country most of our youth wants it to go, but if they want to turn the US into another Socialist shit hole it's their choice, I've done my part and my generation (boomer) did our part to turn over a proud Republic.

    I just hope the youth of today understand you can vote your way into socialism, but you have to shoot your way out.

    Climb-Utah.com

  10. Likes oldno7, twotimer liked this post
  11. #729
    Dow, S&P and Nasdaq today all closed at all time high's.... please tell me again about how the Democrats are going to fix this economy?

    Climb-Utah.com

  12. #730
    They're mad because people who are actually being responsible and planning for their retirement by investing in 401(k)s and IRAs as well as mutual funds and stocks are becoming wealthier while those that don't or won't do those things are falling farther behind.

    It's just not fair, so obviously, we need to destroy those fortunes that are out there so that we're all equal.

    Their goal is for all of us to depend on the all powerful and wonderful federal government by way of the greatest social program of all. Social security. It'll save us all. Forget about personal responsibility and planning for your future. None of that matters when there are poor people that can't afford to retire with dignity and you're off to the Carribean and enjoying yourself. You selfish twit.

  13. Likes oldno7, Iceaxe, rockgremlin liked this post
  14. #731
    Anybody who has a 401K, IRA, Mutual Fund, or stock trading account should be sending Trump Christmas cards and Thank You notes on a regular basis.

    5 more years of this? YES PLEASE!!
    It's only "science" if it supports the narrative.

  15. #732
    DOW hits 29,000 for the first time ever.

    #WINNING

  16. #733
    Bogley BigShot oldno7's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    We're all here, because we ain't all there.
    Posts
    19,424
    Quote Originally Posted by Iceaxe View Post
    DOW hits 29,000 for the first time ever.

    #WINNING

    Trumps fault....
    I'm not Spartacus


    It'll come back.


    Professional Mangler of Grammar

    Guns don't kill people--Static Ropes Do!!

    Who Is John Galt?

  17. #734
    Just stunning. Apple posts a 2% increase in dividends, meanwhile their stock soars 84%. Thank you Fed for the 6 trillion in 'loans' these past few months.

    Sent from my LG-M210 using Tapatalk

  18. #735
    I'm paring my stock holdings back more. Sold off some huge gains in APO and KKR.

    I'm thinking Bernie would be the strongest nominee. There's a magic to his cause that's going to bring a lot of new voters to the polls. Very much the Trump of the Dem party.

  19. #736
    Bogley BigShot oldno7's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    We're all here, because we ain't all there.
    Posts
    19,424
    Quote Originally Posted by diesel View Post
    Just stunning. Apple posts a 2% increase in dividends, meanwhile their stock soars 84%. Thank you Fed for the 6 trillion in 'loans' these past few months.

    Sent from my LG-M210 using Tapatalk
    Well the quantitative isn't going to ease itself
    I'm not Spartacus


    It'll come back.


    Professional Mangler of Grammar

    Guns don't kill people--Static Ropes Do!!

    Who Is John Galt?

  20. #737
    Quote Originally Posted by dougrz View Post
    I'm thinking Bernie would be the strongest nominee. There's a magic to his cause that's going to bring a lot of new voters to the polls. Very much the Trump of the Dem party.
    I just don't see it happening. He's too old, too frail, too white, and too socialist to ever be fully embraced by the Democrat party. Much less by anybody else.
    Last edited by rockgremlin; 01-10-2020 at 05:27 PM.
    It's only "science" if it supports the narrative.

  21. #738
    Quote Originally Posted by rockgremlin View Post
    I just don't see it happening. He's too old, too frail, too white, and too socialist to ever be fully embraced by the Democrat party. Much less by anybody else.
    I don't claim to know the country deeply enough anymore, that's for sure. But more than a few times I've overheard 20-somethings talking about the choices and I don't recall once where it wasn't Bernie. Most recently a few nights ago amongst the 11pm shift at my grocery store.

    Then a convo on Wed with a guy I met for a CL item. I was there almost 45 mins checking a used laptop, convo took off. I just listened as he talked about politics in Michigan where he'd moved from. Both reinforced what I believed, so they left a mark of course. Confirmation bias. His comments were about the enthusiasm for Biden, Warren, Bernie. Warren having a streak of being disliked personally/personality by his crowd, Bernie loved, and Biden meh. Enthusiasm and turnout will decide this in my mind, hence Bernie.

    Of course people actually talking about this stuff are a self-selected group, more enthused in general, and therefore more Bernie probably. The DNC power may not want him, but I believe the rank and file are seriously communist left now.

  22. #739
    Quote Originally Posted by dougrz View Post
    I don't claim to know the country deeply enough anymore, that's for sure. But more than a few times I've overheard 20-somethings talking about the choices and I don't recall once where it wasn't Bernie.
    The biggest problem with your argument is the voting block you are discussing is the most unreliable of all. The 20-somethings are to damn lazy to put down the Xbox controller and actually vote. If you are counting on the youth vote you are playing Russian roulette.



    Climb-Utah.com

  23. #740
    Quote Originally Posted by Iceaxe View Post
    The biggest problem with your argument is the voting block you are discussing is the most unreliable of all. The 20-somethings are to damn lazy to put down the Xbox controller and actually vote. If you are counting on the youth vote you are playing Russian roulette.



    Climb-Utah.com
    Agreed. Turnout decides it. And who of the Dems wound engender the most magnetic enthusiasm? That's my thinking.

Visitors found this page by searching for:

Outdoor Forum

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •