Stocks

[dougrz]

May closed today at $10. Almost a $40 rally. Whoever "bought" yesterday at -$37 made some nice money.

June contracts traded down to $13 today. This is for WTI delivering at Cushing, OK. Other blends trade uniquely. North Dakota was trading around -$51 yesterday and some Colorado at -$50.

Out months are still around $30 to $35. But storage will fill soon and then production must stop. There is no alternative, it must stop.

To say this will destroy US shale is an understatement. I don't see small US oil operators being able to get financing in the future. Just too much risk of this happening again. This is the second time in recent years.

Given that, the alarm about permanent low prices I don't think is necessarily true. Once US shale is gone, OPEC will be satisfied and start managing their production for profit rather than strategic damage.

[dougr]

Site with many contract prices. https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/block/49 It appears these are all the nearest month. Some are delayed.

WTI monthly contract prices: https://www.marketwatch.com/investin...-%20electronic, to 2021. Oil futures go out to 2031 or so.

[oldno7]

I think the market is reacting exactly as it should.

I took money out of the indices and put in gold, that has rocketed up.

I plan to leave a fair amount in gold but I'm hanging on to a stash for the new low.

The March 23 low should easily be broken, I'd be shocked if it isn't.

The first big leg up in a bear market is to convince the holders oners that a bull market will return, it will BUT not for quite awhile.

24,000 has always been my upper number and it has been hit.

Onward and downward--I hope.

No chinese, I know no one follows it..

I do profit from what I say, I don't just throw shit at the wall.

Remember when I was buying GDX between $23 and $24?

It's now hit $34.

[rockgremlin]

I think the market is reacting exactly as it should.

I took money out of the indices and put in gold, that has rocketed up.

I plan to leave a fair amount in gold but I'm hanging on to a stash for the new low.

The March 23 low should easily be broken, I'd be shocked if it isn't.

The first big leg up in a bear market is to convince the holders oners that a bull market will return, it will BUT not for quite awhile.

24,000 has always been my upper number and it has been hit.

Onward and downward--I hope.

No chinese, I know no one follows it..

I do profit from what I say, I don't just throw shit at the wall.

Remember when I was buying GDX between $23 and $24?

It's now hit $34.

I'm all out of the indices as of yesterday. Was trading very nicely there for a little while with a mixed bag of DOW, OLN, VSTO, WFC, GOLD, GDX, WEN, MLPA, KR and UAL. Made a tidy little profit.

At the moment I'm sidelined, anticipating the next leg down (I hope).

[Rob L]

West Texas Intermediate (WTI)?

[oldno7]

For GDX it is in a position of "too much risk", for a minute.

I would like a pullback into the $27.50 range to re buy.

Problem is, gold is strong right now and will likely get stronger as panic, once again sets in.

So I'll start slowly buying as it drops(if it drops), at the very least if this temporary high holds it should hit $30.60

This is a great fund to hold longer term as well as daytrade, I plan on doing both,again, when/if it hits my numbers.

I'm also holding an ETF "MJ", it represents exactly what it sounds like and I think it has potential to the upside.

[oldno7]

GDX down

MJ Up

[rockgremlin]

MJ Up

I see your good friend Aleaf popped today as well... all the way up to $0.37.

[oldno7]

Today is my day to sell MJ and VSTO

Waiting in GDX to re buy.

[rockgremlin]

Still waiting with baited breath for that disastrous crash that's supposed to take the DJIA down into the 10,000 - 15,000 range. This bear market rally is now over 5 weeks old...

[oldno7]

Does it really matter?^^^^^^

Lots to trade.

Might be better to trade what "is" rather than waiting for what "might" be.

But I know you know that but like the troll...

[dougr]

Still waiting with baited breath for that disastrous crash that's supposed to take the DJIA down into the 10,000 - 15,000 range. This bear market rally is now over 5 weeks old...

I don't think it will be a crash to 15-18k. I expect a low volatility bear market for quite some time to 15-18k, a la Japan after their go-go years. Earnings are just terrible. The market is grossly overvalued to earnings now, and it already was in Jan. The bankrutpcies are coming along, Hertz close this week, airlines once PPP money runs dry by Oct., oil cos as we march on, and small biz in non-headline form piling up.

The Dem lockdowns have worked, they crippled the economy. We're sitting around 25% unemployment with no end in sight to its peak. That changed it all, and if Nov ends as I expect, the country is destroyed as we've known it permanently.

S&P500 earnings. If you believe we'll quickly recover and have 2021 earnings of 150 to 168, then no reason the market won't stay at these levels and slowly rise. But if you believe the 2020Q2 earnings of 20 to 25 are to remain for a while, you have annualized earnings of 80 to 100. Which is somewhere between 2010's Dow 10k and 2011/2012's Dow 12k/13k. Pump those figures due to near zero interest rates and you get around 15 to 18k.

[dougr]

Still waiting with baited breath for that disastrous crash that's supposed to take the DJIA down into the 10,000 - 15,000 range. This bear market rally is now over 5 weeks old...

Couple charts to emphasize that bear market rallies have been substantial and lengthy before. Nothing unusual so far. The only thing that'll turn around this fate is a vax or cure. Which I don't see coming before early next year.

1987 I'd classify as a very large correction. There was nothing fundamentally amiss with the US economy. And the market responded accordingly, with the crash's low not being restested. 1929 and 2008 saw underlying fundamental weakness. 1929 saw a 5 month bear rally. I'm sure all seemed steadily recovering for those months, with the unfathomable depression just around the corner. For 2020, how can we possibly call purposely shutting down 1/2 of our business activity not a fundamental weakness? And we'll "grow" to a 1/4 business shutdown with 25% unemployment going to what, 10% or 15%? This blows away the trouble of 2008, imo.

[dougr]

Then on top of all that, you have the election risk. Which I count as 80%+ odds a Dem sweep. Then the return of the high corp taxes, open borders, and regulation up the a%%. That still isn't priced in.

[oldno7]

glad you also look at market history, it is very relevant.

The only crash that we are closely following is the 1929.

We dropped considerably faster with the 2020 than the 1929, thats incredibly worrisome for a bullish outlook.

As you and maybe one other here remember, I based my going into the gold markets off the 1929 scenario and it has and is paying off--significantly.

1929 is on a 90 year cycle, the most important time cycle in the stock market.

All technical analysis leads to a new low.

BUT---the kicker is once again and always will be, Trump.

He is the only President in my lifetime who has known how to actively stimulate the economy and he has.

Man I hope he doesn't screw up this bear market

In reality--I really hope he does.....

[twotimer]

Then on top of all that, you have the election risk. Which I count as 80%+ odds a Dem sweep. Then the return of the high corp taxes, open borders, and regulation up the a%%. That still isn't priced in.

No way, man. I'm 180 degrees away from you on this.

Yeah, things are pretty screwed up right now...but what are the Democrats offering? EVERYTHING about them is a complete disaster. They're actively running cover for a guy that has pictures of him feeling up kids! Like that meme that Oldno posted up with the Joker saying "Things aren't getting worse, they're getting more obvious". Why would those that aren't favorable to Trump want to vote for those that are trying to brow beat them in to submission?

By your reasoning, the country is going to want someone, ANYONE other than Trump. I simply don't believe that...because there's no one there! There's NOTHING there! Things couldn't have been much better before this virus showed up. People aren't going to just toss it into the shitcan and put their trust in the Dems/media oligarchs with crossed fingers.

I was talking to a neighbor last night...she's ultra liberal (lesbian feminist) but she's going to vote for Trump. She's not buying the bullshit...and she may be the most gullible person I've ever met in my life. I couldn't believe it when she said that. This woman has wishful liberal bumper stickers all over the back of her car. Her turning away from the party of her lifetime is telling to me. I'm convinced the Dems have lost people, not gained them.

[Iceaxe]

^^^This^^^

[dougr]

No way, man. I'm 180 degrees away from you on this.

That's better than 360 degrees from me. I take heart in what you're saying and pray to God you're right and I'm dead a%% wrong. Plain and simple.

[rockgremlin]

I think the bear market rally is grinding down now. Lately stocks will rally and eventually fade out, giving up most gains. The momentum has waned significantly.

Another large drop coming soon?

[Iceaxe]

Then on top of all that, you have the election risk. Which I count as 80%+ odds a Dem sweep.

Sorry to hear of your head injury. Hopefully you will regain your senses soon.