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Thread: Stocks

  1. #701
    IMHO... The stock market will stay up at least until the next election because Trump needs a strong stock market to get re-elected. The President has a bunch of tools he can use to make sure the stock market remains high for the next 12 months, even if it's an unsustainable artificial high... For example Trump can add or relax tariffs among other items...

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  3. #702
    Quote Originally Posted by Iceaxe View Post
    IMHO... The stock market will stay up at least until the next election because Trump needs a strong stock market to get re-elected. The President has a bunch of tools he can use to make sure the stock market remains high for the next 12 months, even if it's an unsustainable artificial high... For example Trump can add or relax tariffs among other items...
    I subscribe to the same theory. We've seen Trump do this before, and he can do it again if needed. If a Democrat were elected the stock market would take a large step backwards.
    Do as you would be done by.

  4. #703

  5. #704
    BOOM! The DJIA just hit it's 100th record high since Trump was elected.

    This has never happened under any President EVER!!!

    And Trump is a near lock for 4 more years.

    Thanks Trump, I might retire early :-)

    Climb-Utah.com

  6. #705
    Accadacca and the Democrats are going to hate this...

    Economy to boom in 2020

    https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/...money-managers

    Climb-Utah.com

  7. #706
    ^^ Oh, lest we forget, just a few months ago it was non-stop in the major media that we were heading to recession. All in an effort to get people to pull back and be frightened, to make it come.

    I can't type here what I think of Dems and the media.

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  9. #707
    Bogley BigShot oldno7's Avatar
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    I'm incredibly entertained when the dem presidential circus crew says---"I'll turn this economy around"(undoubtedly)

    "I'll fix this economy"(undoubtedely)

    That is indeed their hope, destroy the most vibrant economy in history.

    Why? because democrats can only exist on a promise, they have centuries of unfullfilled ones.

    They thrive on the downtroden, the opressed, the homeless, the minorities, all living in poverty.

    Wealth and people living in comfort destroys the dems and all they stand for.

    So--until they can destroy(fix) the economy,according to them,

    there is no civilized need for their failed culture of reee, screeech, entitlement, power trips, etc

    misery loves company and misery(dems) are losing theirs.
    I'm not Spartacus


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  11. #708
    Bogley BigShot oldno7's Avatar
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    IT’S OFFICIAL: 2019 Is Greatest Year in Stock Market History – Another All-Time High Today – DOW Up Over 5,000 Points In 2019 Alone

    America is in the middle of its greatest stock market rally ever but no one would know it due to the media’s fixation on anything anti-Trump.

    The markets showed today that they maintain their confidence in President Trump as the DOW reached another all-time closing high. This was the 124th all-time high since the 2016 election.

    https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/201...in-2019-alone/
    I'm not Spartacus


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    Who Is John Galt?

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  13. #709
    Bogley BigShot oldno7's Avatar
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    I'm not Spartacus


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    Who Is John Galt?

  14. #710
    Bogley BigShot oldno7's Avatar
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    Saturday shopping set a single-day sales record, analyst says

    Holiday shopping set records over the weekend, with Super Saturday sales reaching $34.4 billion, the biggest single day in U.S. retail history, according to Customer Growth Partners.
    “Paced by the ‘Big Four’ mega-retailers -- Walmart, Amazon, Costco and Target -- Super Saturday was boosted by the best traffic our team has seen in years,” said Craig Johnson, president of the retail research firm.

    Holiday shopping set records over the weekend, with Super Saturday sales reaching $34.4 billion, the biggest single day in U.S. retail history, according to Customer Growth Partners.
    “Paced by the ‘Big Four’ mega-retailers -- Walmart, Amazon, Costco and Target -- Super Saturday was boosted by the best traffic our team has seen in years,” said Craig Johnson, president of the retail research firm.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/comp...l0P?li=BBnbfcL


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    Boycotting imlay canyon gear because I value access

    Professional Mangler of Grammar

    Guns don't kill people--Static Ropes Do!!

    Who Is John Galt?

  15. #711
    Bogley BigShot oldno7's Avatar
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    Guns don't kill people--Static Ropes Do!!

    Who Is John Galt?

  16. #712
    Thanks Trump!!!

    Climb-Utah.com

  17. #713
    ^^I was looking at my IRA yesterday and thought the same thing. Thanks Trump. I can only hope for 5 more years like this one.

    I'm dreading the day another Democrat gets in the White House. I can't take anymore 1% returns. Also, with all the plans they seem to have, our taxes will rise at least 10% and I won't be able to put anything in my retirement plan anyway.

  18. #714
    2020's Best Asset Class https://seekingalpha.com/article/4314261

    ^ I like this author. The numbers in the article, total market cap to GDP at 150% and CAPE above 30, are historically expensive.

    Just be wary. You have to price in risk the Dems sweep. I've been saying this to iceaxe in particular for months. No denying the extraordinary 2019 market, and no reason we can't have this for many years given Trump style Republicanism.

    But that risk, where the penalty factor (had to get a canyoneering term in) is so high, isn't zero. And I'd even argue it's 50% ish.

    ---
    Excerpt below
    ---

    Today the ratio of total market cap to GDP is over 150%. Historically that has offered a prospective total return of about -3%. This ratio has never been higher. In March 2000, it briefly touched about 149%, but today’s ratio is uncharted territory. Warren Buffett considers this to be the best measure of the market’s overall valuation. By this measure, the market is unambiguously expensive as we enter 2020.
    Another way to look at the US market is its cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings/CAPE ratio compared to its historical CAPE ratio as well as compared with other country markets. Its current CAPE ratio is over 30 for the third time in history – the first peaked briefly in September 1929 and the second peaked briefly in December 1999. In both instances, the ratios (and markets) crashed in the subsequent months.
    How does the US compare with other countries around the world? We have the third-highest CAPE ratio and are one of only three above 30. The average among the developed markets is 25. China’s is 15; Russia’s is 8. Other metrics tell a similar story – we have the fifth-highest P/E ratio, we’re the fourth most expensive market relative to our cash flow, the most expensive relative to our book value, and second relative to sales. We have the third-lowest dividend yield in the world. Subjectively, there are great advantages to investing in the US (rule of law, local knowledge, convenience); objectively, you have to pay dearly for those advantages.

    So, if we’re looking to underpay for everything we buy, we won’t be adding to broad equity market exposure as we enter 2020. But if not cash, bonds, or equities, then what? We don’t make grandiose market calls but seek bargains

  19. #715
    Bogley BigShot oldno7's Avatar
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    I took my mutual fund money out in Nov.

    Put it in a dividend fund.

    Have already received 2 dividends+increase in fund.

    Feels a bit safer.

    It's up about 1,5% in that time.(mid Nov-Dec 31)
    I'm not Spartacus


    Boycotting imlay canyon gear because I value access

    Professional Mangler of Grammar

    Guns don't kill people--Static Ropes Do!!

    Who Is John Galt?

  20. #716
    Quote Originally Posted by dougrz View Post
    Just be wary. You have to price in risk the Dems sweep. I've been saying this to iceaxe in particular for months. No denying the extraordinary 2019 market, and no reason we can't have this for many years given Trump style Republicanism.
    A Democratic sweep?!?

    Damn.... that's so funny I just squirted beer out of my nose laughing so hard.

    Not a chance in hell, right now it's questionable if the Democrats will even be able to keep the house.... I pushed my chips all in a year ago and I'm sailing until storm clouds gather on the horizon... Right now it's clear sailing for the foreseeable future... it fact last years head winds (China, USMCA) should be this years tail winds,,,,

    YMMV

  21. #717
    Quote Originally Posted by Iceaxe View Post
    A Democratic sweep?!?


    YMMV
    Indeed. If that guy has any real concerns about that, I'm sure as hell not going to listen to any of his advice.
    Hey, hey, hey, hey! It was the DNA
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  22. #718
    Quote Originally Posted by twotimer View Post
    Indeed. If that guy has any real concerns about that, I'm sure as hell not going to listen to any of his advice.
    The author I pointed to does not. He just argues against index investing at these elevated values. I'm the one laying out the Dem sweep risk.

    Has the trajectory of the country changed, in terms of the leftist machine turning out morons? School system, pop culture, mass media, Silicon Valley, mass immigration, age of and consequent death of previous American generations... all still working against us. That's what I'm pointing to. Add in the census showing a shift of a not insignificant number of electoral votes to left wing states.

    Too much confidence on our side, methinks.

    My movements have been toward diversifying away from stocks. Of my net worth, I'm 40% real estate, 20% bonds, 40% stock. 1 year ago I was 20/20/60 of those.

  23. #719
    If you are including real estate that's an entirely different story as that would make up over 50% of my net worth. Add in other valuable assets like the companies I own and my net worth percentage in stocks drops much further... But this thread is on stocks.

    Climb-Utah.com

  24. #720
    That's a valid point. Though I have rentals and flips in progress exceeding my home value and have been doing hard money lending I'm counting in that. In stocks I've been slowly moving toward more foreign.

    Given the high price of US stocks on an index level, the old "priced for perfection" adage comes to mind. I don't like buying anything at such levels. Except Amazon back in the day, where the signs of being an absolute beast of a play look strong.

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