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Thread: Stocks

  1. #761
    Bogley BigShot oldno7's Avatar
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    Ford's profits fall nearly 99% for year, due to Explorer woes


    Dearborn — The botched introduction of the new Explorer SUV contributed to a nearly 99% decline in profit in 2019 at Ford Motor Co., which made $47 million and missed its guidance for the year.


    https://www.detroitnews.com/story/bu...19/4626722002/
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  3. #762
    When will the DJIA hit 30,000?

    Some are predicting we might see 30k on Friday if the payroll reports are better then the already bright outlook.

    Climb-Utah.com

  4. #763
    Earnings have been falling but the market is up.

    http://www.321gold.com/editorials/mc...lan020620.html

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  5. #764
    Quote Originally Posted by diesel View Post
    Earnings have been falling but the market is up.

    http://www.321gold.com/editorials/mc...lan020620.html

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    Good link, thanks. I've been steeped in the market for the last 11 years. Data driven research is key in my universe. The CAPE/Shiller index is a powerful long trend indicator I watch.

    This article mentions "pre-tax profits" vs GDP. Except the market was specifically boosted by corp tax cuts, which boosted post-tax profits. And smart money knows reduced corp taxes aren't a one time stimulus like govt spending is. Instead they are a compounding stimulus, as more and more highly efficient private money goes to work. But it also doesn't take into account that rising wages might be explaining an overall profit decline. And rising wages- rather than confiscated and misallocated tax revenue- is good for companies overall regardless.

    But the market is more than simply earnings vs price, as his analysis leans mostly. It's expected earnings vs price, earnings growth rate vs price, sentiment vs price. Lot of variables, not least of which is the genuine deregulatory environment of these past 3 years.

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  7. #765
    Bogley BigShot oldno7's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Iceaxe View Post
    ^^^I have a degree in Mathematics, and specialized in statics..... I wish predicting stocks were that simple....

    The part I can agree with is over time statically you should hit your numbers, but there is a lot more to it then that... if it were as simple as plugging into a formula I'd have retired long ago...

    YMMV
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  8. #766
    Speaking of the CAPE (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cycl...earnings_ratio), the latest. We are ripe for a hard, hard pullback if Dems sweep. A repeal of the Trump tax cuts and reinvigorated regulatory state would blister the market.

    Short of the dotcom boom, we're at/near an all time high (the corp tax cuts have reset the baseline, though, imo). Not unwarranted, therefore. But whatever % chance you allot to that nightmare Dem scenario, multiply by the huge penalty factor.

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  10. #767
    There is a dislocation in valuations between renewable energy and conventional energy. Caused of late by an appreciable shift in the investment activity of institutions with political aims. Universities, state retirement funds, activist funds, etc, toward renewables.

    Lofty numbers for a lot of solar and other names, not so lofty for oil and gas, with amazing dividend yields historically.

    Charts of ExxonMobil's yield in particular. Vs the share price of TAN, PBW, and ACES, three large clean energy funds, over the last 2 years.

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  12. #768
    Hmmmm....interesting analysis.


    So I can conclude that those with political aims don't like to make money then? Seems to me that anybody with half a brain would want to put profits over politics.

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  14. #769
    It's not that politically aimed investors don't want to make money, obviously. It's that trades become crowded.

  15. #770
    Bogley BigShot oldno7's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dougrz View Post
    It's that trades become crowded.
    please give further details
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  17. #771
    Bogley BigShot oldno7's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dougrz View Post
    There is a dislocation in valuations between renewable energy and conventional energy. Caused of late by an appreciable shift in the investment activity of institutions with political aims. Universities, state retirement funds, activist funds, etc, toward renewables.

    Lofty numbers for a lot of solar and other names, not so lofty for oil and gas, with amazing dividend yields historically.

    Charts of ExxonMobil's yield in particular. Vs the share price of TAN, PBW, and ACES, three large clean energy funds, over the last 2 years.
    The last 3 charts had price jumps in excess of 5% just today. Impressive run.

    The first chart I don't understand, it is not Exxon(XOM), which has certainly suffered a 25% decrease in value.

    Exxon has been consistantly paying .87 share dividend over the last year.(quarterly)

    TTM is a ticker for TaTa motors, it is very near filling a gap and moving into buy territory, for me.

    Might need to get sum tata

    Figures your into a shrinking tata market.
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  18. #772
    Quote Originally Posted by dougrz View Post
    It's not that politically aimed investors don't want to make money, obviously. It's that trades become crowded.
    Yes, I too would like to know what is meant by "crowded trades."

    If I'm an investor, I wanna put my money where it is going to get the most bang for the buck, regardless of political ideology. Money knows no party, and has no agenda. Throwing money at something that doesn't yield much return for the sake of propping up an agenda is a bonehead move.
    Last edited by rockgremlin; 02-19-2020 at 05:31 PM.
    !!!CORONAVIRUS PSA!!!

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  19. #773
    Quote Originally Posted by oldno7 View Post
    The first chart I don't understand, it is not Exxon(XOM), which has certainly suffered a 25% decrease in value.

    Exxon has been consistantly paying .87 share dividend over the last year.(quarterly)

    TTM is a ticker for TaTa motors, it is very near filling a gap and moving into buy territory, for me.
    The first chart is of XOM's dividend yield, not stock price. Div yield is dividend/price. TTM = trailing twelve months.

    With very large corporate stocks, div yield often creates a floor value. Cos will borrow to continue divi payouts through some rough patches, it's that important. For XOM's yield to be approaching 6% is noteworthy. There is real capital flight from traditional energy.

    If you believe oil is on the way out, then this deterioration will continue. If you think the trade into alternatives is rushed, then these yields are supports. Hard to imagine yields from cash gushing companies getting much better than that listed below, especially given the abysmal rates available elsewhere.

    XOM yield = 5.75
    RDS = 7.5
    CVX = 4.75
    TOT = 6
    SNP = 10
    OXY = 7.5

    I was recently talking to my advisor and he mentioned the movement by funds into alternatives for less than strictly disciplined reasons. I started researching this a bit more since I hold a lot of energy as is. I'm not opposed to alternative investments, I've made good money in some previous solar stocks. But valuation is key, and alt energy is an expensive trade.

    Yield histories:

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  21. #774
    Bogley BigShot oldno7's Avatar
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    I'll bet 29 was a bitch..

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  22. #775
    Quote Originally Posted by oldno7 View Post
    I'll bet 29 was a bitch..

    I was fortunate to have older parents and oldster relatives from the Depression era when I was a kid. Really helped form me, their stories and values. Was a brutal time. An aunt and uncle were lawyers back then and became destitute, living in a house with 7 or 8 others. Later built successful legal careers, she was an assistant AG in CA.

    But that generation deeply valued a functioning, stable, orderly society, with reason, thrift, and gratitude central. Opposite the societal values of today.

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  24. #776
    Bogley BigShot oldno7's Avatar
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    whoowheeeee.....

    Big drop coming this morning

    8-900 pt drop
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    Who Is John Galt?

  25. #777
    And it's too late to buy cheap gold & silver. $1700 and $19 will prolly be a bargain soon.

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  26. #778
    Bogley BigShot oldno7's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by diesel View Post
    And it's too late to buy cheap gold & silver. $1700 and $19 will prolly be a bargain soon.

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    Gold, silver, platinum where on my buy list several months ago and everyone said why buy precious metals...
    I'm not Spartacus


    It'll come back.


    Professional Mangler of Grammar

    Guns don't kill people--Static Ropes Do!!

    Who Is John Galt?

  27. #779
    I have been preaching gold and silver for 2 years. Sooo under valued. My mining positions are doing well and will retain more value than Tesla and Caterpillar.

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  28. #780
    It was a no brainer that stocks were going to tank Monday morning when it became obvious this weekend that Coronavirus was going to become a pandemic.

    Climb-Utah.com

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