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[devo_stevo]

I'm willing to bet few on this forum will feel the impact of a steel tariff more than me. I'm a structural engineer, which means I design really big shit made out of steel.

I'm in the same boat as you. I'm not an engineer, but I make that crap you design bolt together. If people stop building with steel, I'm in trouble.

Here's what's on the boiler at the moment. Coming soon to a neighborhood near you.

[rockgremlin]

^^^ Is that Ogden's next SuperWalmart?

[devo_stevo]

^^^ Is that Ogden's next SuperWalmart?

Nope. It's for Stadler. They are going to be making light rail train cars in Salt Lake.

[Iceaxe]

Trumps right about one thing, if you can't produce steel you don't have a country.

Everyone agrees other countries are dumping steel in the US and it needs to stop before it puts our steel suppliers out of business. The question is really are blanket tariffs the best answer.

I'm also thinking this tariff is a two pronged approach as Trump has told Canada and Mexico they will be exempt if they come up with a new NAFTA deal. So Trump is leveraging the tariff to get the stalled NAFTA talks moving forward.

[devo_stevo]

Very true, and the US steel industry has suffered greatly over the last 20 years or so due to foreign steel makers undercutting them on prices. It's not nearly as healthy an industry as it once was. It's nice to see someone that can make a difference actually doing something about it.

That being said, I think that the tariffs he's talking about are nothing more than a bargaining point to start from. I don't think that they are going to be nearly as severe as everyone says right now. He's just trying to get the other side of the table to sweat a bit so they feel like they have to give something to us so that we can give back to them. Only time will tell how it all shakes out.

[Iceaxe]

Gary Cohn's "**** this!" face...

Enjoy the Stable Genuis' Market tomorrow.

Remind me to never take investing advise from you. Stocks basically held even despite Cohn's exit. My financial portfolio actually went up a massive $10 today.

[devo_stevo]

Weren't we just talking about this yesterday?

US steel maker to reopen idled steel plant and bring back 500 jobs due to Trump tariffs.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/comp...7gv?li=BBnbfcN

[rockgremlin]

Weren't we just talking about this yesterday?

US steel maker to reopen idled steel plant and bring back 500 jobs due to Trump tariffs.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/comp...7gv?li=BBnbfcN

This is also good for coal because you can't make steel without met coal. For a while now, the U.S. has been exporting met coal to Brazil, Brazil would make steel with it and then send the steel back to the U.S. Well, if the steel is made here at home then then the met coal also stays here in the U.S. and contributes to the domestic production of steel.

U.S. made steel with U.S. mined coal.

[2065toyota]

Jobs will be created if the tarrifs go through and plants will reopen and jobs will be created. But there is a cost of that. Our steel prices are higher which in turn will make everything that the consumer buys that has steel in it more expensive.

No different than increasing the minimum wage, in the long run it just increases inflation and nobody is any better off.

I'm all about keeping in the US and do all I can to stay that way, but there are consquences for doing so

[Iceaxe]

Jobs will be created if the tarrifs go through and plants will reopen and jobs will be created. But there is a cost of that. Our steel prices are higher which in turn will make everything that the consumer buys that has steel in it more expensive.

No different than increasing the minimum wage, in the long run it just increases inflation and nobody is any better off

^^^Yes and No^^^

The big problem is other countries, namely China, are dumping steel on the US, which means they are selling steel for less then it costs to produce. They can do this because the government subsidies the Chinese steel industry.

We are forced to slap the tariff on all imported steel because a third party will just import the steel and then sell it into the US.

If the US steel industry goes broke then you are at the total mercy of steel producing nations.

So in the short term steel prices will rise and consumer prices will rise, in the long term steel prices should flat line at a fair price.

So the real question is are you willing to suffer a short term price increase for long term national security?

[Iceaxe]

Also.... don't fall for the Chicken Little act, the cost of the actual steel is really a very small part of the total product price. Engineering, fabrication, manufacturing, packaging, distribution, among other items all add to the cost. Yes the price of items will go up but not be big numbers as the 25% tariff will be absorbed throughout the system.

And as I stated before, I believe the 2nd part of this is for leverage in the NAFTA negotiations.

[2065toyota]

^^^Yes and No^^^

The big problem is other countries, namely China, are dumping steel on the US, which means they are selling steel for less then it costs to produce. They can do this because the government subsidies the Chinese steel industry.

We are forced to slap the tariff on all imported steel because a third party will just import the steel and then sell it into the US.

If the US steel industry goes broke then you are at the total mercy of steel producing nations.

So in the short term steel prices will rise and consumer prices will rise, in the long term steel prices should flat line at a fair price.

So the real question is are you willing to suffer a short term price increase for long term national security?

If the Chinese government is indeed subsidizing the industry to drive the price down and it is that important of a commodity, is there anything that prevents them from subsidiszing it with a greater amount to compensate for the tarrifs?

If their government is ran like ours, does it really matter how much money they lose or where would it all end at?

[Iceaxe]

If the Chinese government is indeed subsidizing the industry to drive the price down and it is that important of a commodity, is there anything that prevents them from subsidiszing it with a greater amount to compensate for the tarrifs?

If their government is ran like ours, does it really matter how much money they lose or where would it all end at?

If the Chinese increase the steel subsides we can increase the tariff, or slap a tariff on ALL imports from China, which is called a trade war.

In the long run no country can beat the US in a trade war, but the collateral damage from a trade war could be nothing to huge for all involved.

The US is betting the Chinese will realize it's just easier to sale steel at a fair price, which is the simple solution.

[Iceaxe]

All stock index's are up... the market didn't even blink over Cohn's exit, just business as usual.

[twotimer]

I wonder what it'll do tomorrow now that we're playing footsie with NK.

[2065toyota]

I spent most of today and will be again tomorrow sending out revised estimates for all the upcoming and scheduled work we have notifiying my customers about the 25% percent increase in steel costs that just happened

I anticipate losing 25% of the current contracts we have. Not that they can go anywhere else and get it cheaper, just the fact that I'm the bearer of bad news.

Our probably best saving grace is were are the largest ornamental iron company in Utah south of Provo.

The supplies are even being put on quotas which are going to weed out a lot of small business that don't buy enough volume and will not be able to purchase steel.

The consumers are the ones who are going to be paying the price for the tarriffs because of the increased costs which in turn leads to higher home prices which in turn helps lead to more inflation.

Hopefully its just a temporary tactic the get the NAFTA reorganized with better terms

[devo_stevo]

I spent most of today and will be again tomorrow sending out revised estimates for all the upcoming and scheduled work we have notifiying my customers about the 25% percent increase in steel costs that just happened

I anticipate losing 25% of the current contracts we have. Not that they can go anywhere else and get it cheaper, just the fact that I'm the bearer of bad news.

Our probably best saving grace is were are the largest ornamental iron company in Utah south of Provo.

The supplies are even being put on quotas which are going to weed out a lot of small business that don't buy enough volume and will not be able to purchase steel.

The consumers are the ones who are going to be paying the price for the tarriffs because of the increased costs which in turn leads to higher home prices which in turn helps lead to more inflation.

Hopefully its just a temporary tactic the get the NAFTA reorganized with better terms

I'm afraid you're right. I've mentioned in other threads, I'm in the steel industry. I'm a self employed steel detailer. If people stop building with steel, I'm in trouble. On the bright side, I've got no debt on the business as of April 1 in a couple of weeks here and some money in the bank as well as the fact that I'm good enough at it that fabricators keep coming to me more and more. Hopefully that continues.

[2065toyota]

I'm afraid you're right. I've mentioned in other threads, I'm in the steel industry. I'm a self employed steel detailer. If people stop building with steel, I'm in trouble. On the bright side, I've got no debt on the business as of April 1 in a couple of weeks here and some money in the bank as well as the fact that I'm good enough at it that fabricators keep coming to me more and more. Hopefully that continues.

If you do steel detailing we should get together. We started in structural steel a year or so ago along with our ornamental side and have about some large projects coming up.

[devo_stevo]

If you do steel detailing we should get together. We started in structural steel a year or so ago along with our ornamental side and have about some large projects coming up.

Sounds like a plan. I'm happy to help. I've been in business for myself for the last 3 years, but I've been doing this since 1996.

If you need anything, hit me up: steve@valleystructural.com

[double moo]

On the flip side... those of us on the concrete side will benefit. In the commercial construction world there is always a debate between steel frame and concrete frame structures... often comes down to cost. Bar costs will escalate but it a small fraction by tonage compared to structural steel. (steel frame will always be the better schedule bet).