Stocks

[devo_stevo]

On the flip side... those of us on the concrete side will benefit. In the commercial construction world there is always a debate between steel frame and concrete frame structures... often comes down to cost. Bar costs will escalate but it a small fraction by tonage compared to structural steel. (steel frame will always be the better schedule bet).

Also true. I don't see construction stopping or really even slowing down too much because of this, but there will be some projects that they'll change the design to save some cash.

[Iceaxe]

Ouch!!!

Still up 14% over the past year but watching the market over the past couple of days has been painful.

[devo_stevo]

Ouch!!!

Still up 14% over the past year but watching the market over the past couple of days has been painful.

Yup. I've had to look away and tell myself I've still got more than 20 years before I'm retiring and when it goes down, it's just a good time to buy stuff when it's on sale. I can't imagine that after going up over 20% last year, we won't get a year of negatives. This is historically what happens. Just sucks when it does.

[Iceaxe]

So I never understood how Facebook could be valued more than General Motors or Ford. Those two companies have billions in hard assets and sell millions of cars to their customers....

And now I know every dumbass using Facebook was their asset and they were selling your privacy to their actual customers.

It all finally makes sense to me....

[double moo]

Many many employed snowflakes that have an over inflated self worth... Considering your people are your greatest assets - and you have more value than Ford and GM combined.

[Iceaxe]

China blinks first.... Trump scores another win.

China's Xi promises to cut auto import tariff, warns against ‘Cold War’ mentality

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2018/04...mentality.html

[oldno7]

Bull or bear market?


If a bull , it needs to take out 24,800.

If a bear, take out just below 23,800

[oldno7]

If the bears win, I would guess a minimum 40% reduction.

[oldno7]

and down we go...

[oldno7]

probably a 200 point drop to open, coming.

where from there?

[oldno7]

for anyone interested, the chart comparisons from 2018 to 2007 are very similar. we got about a 50% crash back then.

I'm still bullish the market but reshaping my portfolio to not be severely damaged in the possibility of a crash.

Things are quite different now, vs. 2007, economically.

This bull market is 9years old, it's time to be careful.

[rockgremlin]

for anyone interested, the chart comparisons from 2018 to 2007 are very similar. we got about a 50% crash back then.

I'm still bullish the market but reshaping my portfolio to not be severely damaged in the possibility of a crash.

Things are quite different now, vs. 2007, economically.

This bull market is 9years old, it's time to be careful.

Back in 2007 - 2008 there was a legitimate potential threat to the economy in the form of the housing bubble and all of the unjustified overlending that banks were engaged in. Years of big banks extending credit and offering loans to almost anyone regardless of their ability to repay finally caught up with them. But those were activities that were transparent -- it took place right out in the open, and we ought to have seen the writing on the wall sooner. In the end, turning a blind eye to dubious policies in the name of greed torpedoed the economy. Banks and credit lending institutions learned valuable lessons from that catastrophic time, and some banks just withered and died.

But fast forward to today...what event could potentially wreck the currently high-rolling economy?

[Iceaxe]

^^^THIS^^^

I see no reason the current economy will not keep rolling along for another 5 or 6 years. YMMV

[oldno7]

1) Rising interest rates

2) Inflation

3) War --(Israel vs. Iran?)

4) Panic and fear.

5) Irrational exuberance/euphoria


I'm not saying a crash is inevitable, merely stating the possibility is real.

I use timing in my trading, May 17th and 18th come up as important dates.

I trade no matter what, most can't make the daily/inter daily adjustments like I do.

I will be selling out of my oil positions earl to mid next week.

If prices keep rising into next week, I might abandon all positions for a little bit.

[oldno7]

Rising interest has a tendancy to draw people into bonds, money for bonds, comes from stocks, in general.

The national debt will struggle with a rise in interest rates.

How about a CRASH in crypto markets?

That could get the ball rolling, after that it's all emotion.

many reasons to be alert, especially if you are a boomer and time for a recovery is not on your side.

[twotimer]

If the market were to somehow take a multi-thousand point dive I will certainly buy more stock that I did in early '09...back then I was too cautious and If I would have gone apeshit I'd be a multi-millionaire many times over right now. And that's just will the handful of stocks that I did buy.

I certainly love how my IRA is looking, but I set up my retirement with rental properties.

I agree with Iceaxe...I think it'll just get better overall. The United States is swingin' the biggest dick in the world and we finally have a leader who knows how to use it.

[oldno7]

,,,,

[uintafly]

If the market were to somehow take a multi-thousand point dive I will certainly buy more stock that I did in early '09...back then I was too cautious and If I would have gone apeshit I'd be a multi-millionaire many times over right now. And that's just will the handful of stocks that I did buy.

I certainly love how my IRA is looking, but I set up my retirement with rental properties.

I agree with Iceaxe...I think it'll just get better overall. The United States is swingin' the biggest dick in the world and we finally have a leader who knows how to use it.

Depending on where those rentals are, I bet you are pretty happy right now. I can't believe the price of rent these days along the Wasatch Front, but I guess when you have vacancy rates flirting with 2%, you can charge what you want. Even with all of the inventory that has come on the last 24 months and all of the inventory ready to come on in the next 24 months we are still seeing a housing shortage in Utah, which is seriously pushing up the real estate values. A few years ago you could find commercial and multifamily investments at a 7 cap all day long. Good luck with that now. Hard enough to find a 5 cap property these days. Couple that with increasing rates, and I am not sure jumping into long term real estate holds is a great deal. Want to make a ton of money though? Find a decent deal on raw land and develop it into .5 acre residential lots.

[oldno7]

diversify

real estate certainly does that.

rentals would seem a solid investment in current markets.

[Iceaxe]

Want to make a ton of money though? Find a decent deal on raw land and develop it into .5 acre residential lots.

Hahaha.... good luck with that.

That's just like saying it's easy to make money in the stock market, just buy low and sell high.