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Thread: Stocks

  1. #1281
    Quote Originally Posted by Iceaxe View Post
    you basically post shit to be a dick....
    Pot calling the kettle black boss.


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  3. #1282
    Quote Originally Posted by accadacca View Post
    Pot calling the kettle black boss.
    No... I actually stay and participate in the threads I post crap in... a prime example is this thread where I have participated since the day I started it and have attempted to point out why there is a vast difference between you and I. Lots of us toss red meat into the pit, but then we stick around and defend our position, which you seldom/never do.... do you see the difference yet or do you need me to make you a PowerPoint demonstration with color pie charts?

  4. #1283
    Quote Originally Posted by accadacca View Post
    There are a few though that get triggered VERY easily and turn to personal attacks if someone posts something that is not in line with their thinking.
    Quote Originally Posted by Iceaxe View Post
    ^^^I'll believe it the day I see you are not ALWAYS sucking liberal dick...
    Do you get it now or do you need a PowerPoint presentation?

  5. #1284
    #LetsGoBrandon BasinCruiser's Avatar
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    I learn from the mistakes of people who took my advice.

    Preferred Pronoun: Lambda-Gamma-Beta.

    Proud member of the LGBFJB community.

  6. #1285
    Boom!!!

    And just like that Trump is elected to a second term.


  7. #1286
    Quote Originally Posted by rockgremlin View Post
    I think Dougie Downer even said he thought the second drop would descend all the way to 10,000 or lower.
    Please. 15k I think I said, you give me too much credit for 10k. Printing and zero rates had their effect.

    The old Graham studies of the 30s predicted a 286 multiple in a zero environment. More room to run if so.

    Still doesn't account for the election risk. Upside of Trump is, downside of Dem sweep is?

  8. #1287
    Bogley BigShot oldno7's Avatar
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    Exited my QQQ etf yesterday at 302.95

    Had a hanging man doji on higher volume=too much risk for me to continue holding.
    I'm not Spartacus


    It'll come back.


    Professional Mangler of Grammar

    Guns don't kill people--Static Ropes Do!!

    Who Is John Galt?

  9. #1288
    The DJIA will likely dip today as I expect to see a lot of profit taking.

  10. #1289
    Bogley BigShot oldno7's Avatar
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    Watch the canadian pot stock sector--amazing!!!!

    Some up 100% in 2 days.(ACB)
    I'm not Spartacus


    It'll come back.


    Professional Mangler of Grammar

    Guns don't kill people--Static Ropes Do!!

    Who Is John Galt?

  11. Likes rockgremlin liked this post
  12. #1290
    The market loved a split govt and a Biden ending of hostilities with China. Hence the good rally post election day. A split was the single best outcome for the market, shedding Trump's trade and immigration policies but keeping his tax and dereg.

    But now weakness should prevail as the market comes to grips with a Dem Senate being a real possibility.

    From a sweep, rollback of the Trump tax cuts effects the broad market. Subsidies for alt energy effects those +. Health stocks probably hit as the public option would come and eviscerate private health over time. Big Tech + as the war against them ends. Homebuilders + with open borders and amnesty chain migration. Precious metals + as the mass spending programs signal dollar weakness. Etc. Winners and losers, plan accordingly.

    Worst will be energy and gun stocks. Elimination of the liability shield for gun makers will kill them all in a decade or so. Possible survival for ones that manufacture and sell only in a single state, to skirt federal laws. This was a hot topic in the industry a few years ago for a similar reason and has to be revisited now.

  13. #1291
    ^^^gun stocks will continue to do well because folks will continue to stock up on guns and ammo in anticipation of Biden cracking down.

    Check out Vista Outdoor (VSTO) - that stock is rocking because guns and ammo won't stop flying off store shelves. I can't see that slowing down anytime soon.
    Last edited by rockgremlin; 11-06-2020 at 11:53 AM.
    It's only "science" if it supports the narrative.

  14. #1292
    Quote Originally Posted by rockgremlin View Post
    ^^^gun stocks will continue to do well because folks will continue to stock up on guns and ammo in anticipation of Biden cracking down.
    They will for a time, potentially years, yes. It's just a comment that in time all national makers will be bankrupted. And targeted specifically for lawfare.

    It's like buying one of the mineral resource royalty stocks. It's a diminishing asset and you have to run a discounted valuation calc. Many, many investors don't know this, so overvalued stocks can remain overvalued for a long time. Add in that you never know when a large lawsuit might be filed, nor how long it would take to adjudicate. Large variability which makes a discounted calc nearly impossible. Just becomes your thinking on that risk. You'd have to count on the SC overturning decades of product liability laws to save them.

    For the gun stocks, think back to Sandy Hook. Without the Fed liability shield, Bushmaster would have been toast at the time from lawsuits. And those lawsuits were filed and money had to be spent to defend even with the shield. Parent Remington went under later as a bk for a variety of reasons.

    Bottom line, it has to be considered a risk now. Dem sweep, shield repealed, shooting, lawsuit. Determine your risk tolerance.

  15. Likes oldno7 liked this post
  16. #1293
    I'd encourage you all to weigh risk v reward again.

    What is the reward of a divided govt for the next 2?

    + for market
    1. Let up on China and stop border enforcement
    2. Tax increases are stopped in an R Senate
    3. Stop border enforcement stimulates demand

    - for market
    1. Regulatory creep begins again
    2. War on energy, though not 100% strength, will incrementally drive costs up

    What is the risk of a Dem sweep?

    + for market
    1. Large stimulus and spending across the board
    2. Mass amnesty plus stop border enforcement stimulates demand

    - for market
    1. Tax increases. Income, cap gains, financial transaction, inheritance, payroll, medical, all in the Biden plan
    2. Large regulatory schemes emerge
    3. Weight of govt spending on new citizens, Medicare, and climate initiatives drives the debt market to some point
    4. The biggie: once realization that Dem rule is permanent...
    a. sectors of the market need to be evaluated for fixed term of existence (energy, ICE auto, firearms, and any other targeted)
    b. CA level policy nationwide will alter the return of entire sectors that aren't termed out. eg, US population will swell, tech more empowered, national home energy standards, etc

  17. #1294
    Oil might be an interesting play in the coming months if the Dems sweep. The market reaction will be swift and painful for a lot of names. But emerging market energy demand will power increased oil consumption for 1 or 2 more decades.

    As US oil majors are sued and fined and pressured to phase out oil production as BP and Shell and Eni have done in Europe, other foreign suppliers will pick up the slack. A multiyear play.

    Names like EC, PBR, SNP, ARMCO to name a few. Immunity to insane US policy changes is going to be a great plus for several asset classes.

  18. Likes oldno7, rockgremlin liked this post
  19. #1295
    Quote Originally Posted by dougrz View Post
    Oil might be an interesting play in the coming months if the Dems sweep. The market reaction will be swift and painful for a lot of names. But emerging market energy demand will power increased oil consumption for 1 or 2 more decades.

    As US oil majors are sued and fined and pressured to phase out oil production as BP and Shell and Eni have done in Europe, other foreign suppliers will pick up the slack. A multiyear play.

    Names like EC, PBR, SNP, ARMCO to name a few. Immunity to insane US policy changes is going to be a great plus for several asset classes.

    [ahem] Speaking of oil stocks...

    Exxon up 14%, Apache Oil up 21%, Conoco up 15%, etc....

    The prospect of a viable Covid vaccine available soon is driving many stocks skyward upon speculation of society returning to normal soon. (DJIA + 1400 points!)

    Investing in speculation is always a risky bet. When reality doesn't bear fruit the market is ruthless.
    It's only "science" if it supports the narrative.

  20. Likes oldno7 liked this post
  21. #1296
    Quote Originally Posted by rockgremlin View Post
    [ahem] Speaking of oil stocks...

    Exxon up 14%, Apache Oil up 21%, Conoco up 15%, etc....
    Had this been announced 2 weeks ago, several points for Trump nationwide.

    Purposely withheld.

  22. Likes oldno7 liked this post
  23. #1297
    Quote Originally Posted by dougrz View Post
    Purposely withheld.
    Same deal with the drug companies coming out this morning and announcing they are only weeks away from a Covid vaccine.

    Big Pharma hates Trump as he kept forcing them to sell their products to America at the same cut rates they sold to other countries.

  24. Likes devo_stevo, oldno7 liked this post
  25. #1298
    Quote Originally Posted by Iceaxe View Post
    Big Pharma hates Trump
    Big pharma will deeply regret helping the socialists win. Just as big health insurance helped push Obamacare across the line to get some spare time only to be eventually pushed entirely out of biz.

    No doubt there were deals cut to spare them from attacks for a while in whatever Dem bills come down the line first.

    I'm ticked at myself for not seeing this obvious news in advance and playing options on it. So obvious.

    But this does signal the era of corruption, deals, and political manipulation accelerates nationwide. The heart and soul of socialism is corruption.

  26. #1299
    TTD I've owned since May or so. Purely on the insistence of the adviser I work with.

    Remarkable volatility.

  27. Likes oldno7 liked this post
  28. #1300
    Dow crests 30,000 points on vaccine hopes, Biden transition
    https://www.ksl.com/article/50054751...den-transition

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