Stocks

[dougrz]

^ And why I never have and never will short. Though I do play put options on individual stocks from time to time.

Nonetheless, I'm still highly cautious, as the tax and regulatory crush under Dems would eviscerate the market. Warren's business charter and employees with board seats and shareholder ownership changes will fundamentally change the meaning of business in the country to its profound detriment.

Regardless of whether you think the Dems will sweep, at least acknowledge the risk is so far beyond any previous Dem market risk. In the past it has always been a tax risk, which could be lobbied and finagled and sleighted around. Now it's a change to the fundamental meaning of business risk.

[rockgremlin]

Again I disagree. I think you're making a blanket assumption that trading and investing in the stock market is a purely Republican activity. Have you seen the unprecedented amount of new traders and investors in the market these days? There are so many up and coming traders in the market now that seasoned investors have had to change up their strategies to accommodate the increased volume. All this new money and interest in the stock market isn't going to be stifled and sidelined by the Democrats. There's just too much money to be made. It's not in the best interest of the federal government to shut down the market - they benefit too much from it.

[dougrz]

Again I disagree. I think you're making a blanket assumption that trading and investing in the stock market is a purely Republican activity.

Rock, I take your response to be, in essence, "the country won't be damaged too much if Dems sweep."

We just disagree on the level of threat. Profoundly so. And hence why I'm having trouble sleeping and you're not.

[rockgremlin]

Rock, I take your response to be, in essence, "the country won't be damaged too much if Dems sweep."

We just disagree on the level of threat. Profoundly so. And hence why I'm having trouble sleeping and you're not.

Yeah I think you've assessed me correctly, although I don't believe a Dem sweep is going to happen. I can't see Biden winning and then the House remaining Democrat and the Senate flipping over to Democrat...all by this year's end. At worst, I could see Biden eking out a narrow and controversial victory. But for the entire Senate/House to also be Democrat by year's end? I don't think that's a very likely scenario.

[dougrz]

I can't see Biden winning and then the House remaining Democrat and the Senate flipping over to Democrat...all by this year's end.

Dems took 58% of the House vote in 2018. You'd have to expect an awfully big swing toward Trump to reverse that. And by late 2018 the economy was humming and Trump wasn't beaten down by any of the 2020 carnage.

In the Senate, since only 1/3 is up each cycle, it becomes a game of which 1/3. At this point we'll pick up Alabama and lose Maine, Montana, Georgia, Arizona, and Colorado. Net loss of 4 to flip.

[rockgremlin]

At this point we'll pick up Alabama and lose Maine, Montana, Georgia, Arizona, and Colorado. Net loss of 4 to flip.

Arizona, Georgia, and Montana flipping from red to blue? Hmmm I don't know about that. Maine and Colorado are blue for sure though.

[dougrz]

Arizona, Georgia, and Montana flipping from red to blue? Hmmm I don't know about that. Maine and Colorado are blue for sure though.

AZ and MT are 50/50 states if you look at their state legislatures. Which, btw, I think is the best way to gauge a state's voting heart.

MT put D-Tester back in over a very good R candidate in 2018 and R-Daines is weak this year

AZ has been trending D. Had 2 R senators in 2016 and previous, flipped one to D-Sinema in 2018, and R-McSally this time is a poor candidate who keeps getting put up in race after race only to lose each time. She was the first Navy fighter pilot or something and seemed a rising star, but the public doesn't embrace her. Sad reality to see this formerly solid R state slip away. I lived there for 6 years.

GA R-Loeffler has been battered by the insider trading allegations and the state was razor close in the 2018 gov contest, almost putting in nutcase Stacey Abrams. Sad reality to see that formerly strong R state slip away.

CO is foregone. I live here now, and 2018 was a violent bloodbath sweep for Dems. Took every state office and commanding majorities in both legislative houses. The CO vote is why I've been telling anyone who'll listen- anger motivates voting more than anything, and Dems are ultra pissed, on an historic level, to drive turnout.

[rockgremlin]

Dear Doug -- so you can sleep at night...

[Byron]

My Ford stock is doing nicely. I bought a considerable amount of it at just under $4. I'll sell it when it hits $10, at least.

That one was a no brainer.

[oldno7]

My Ford stock is doing nicely. I bought a considerable amount of it at just under $4. I'll sell it when it hits $10, at least.

That one was a no brainer.

Ford is gaining--I've bought and sold it several times in the past months.
The one I really still like is VSTO.
It was in the 4's when I mentioned it here. Now above $16 and likely headed over $20.

[rockgremlin]

The one I really still like is VSTO.
It was in the 4's when I mentioned it here. Now above $16 and likely headed over $20.

Yup 100% guarantee. I've bought/sold this a half dozen times over the last 3 months. It's been really, really good to me. Earnings coming up next week will likely look favorable since guns and ammo have been flying off shelves recently due to riots and other unrest.

[oldno7]

VSTO shined again today.

17.01 on close

[dougrz]

Consensus is a 32/33% annualized GDP quarterly decline report coming. Trillions in stimulus debt piled on. Surveys that 60%+ of restaurants will not return to business. Etc.

This is the setup I've anticipated and mentioned in here before. A massive economic contraction, coupled with a vote to go hard left, means permanent Spain/EU economic pain and deep recession for years.

I don't see any evidence to contradict that. Pumping the market has worked admirably, specifically. A chart in an article recently showed it well. If I can find the dang link to post.

Even if a sharp correction down doesn't come, or especially if not, future returns, _from indices_, will necessarily remain muted for many years. You have to be nimble and selective in the new market, imo.

[dougrz]

Added to my NOK holding. That and ERIC I entered 2 or 3 years ago in the play to squelch Huawei in the race to 5G. I had my doubts the West would do the right thing, but I think it's now safe to say Huawei will be defeated. The UK 2 weeks ago banned Huawei equipment going forward. They were the last significant holdout and Boris' govt was defending Huawei a few months ago. Germany hasn't legally done so, but all their major telecoms shut out Huawei in their 5G contracts.

ERIC is 2.5x my entry point and NOK 0.9x. NOK has been winning fewer contracts, but had sufficiently impressive offerings to win the recent Taiwan majors competitions. More potential gain from this point forward, imo, if they can figure out how to make some money on their deals.

Big remaining Q for me is whether to exit all fossil plays entirely. Bad legal and biz framework coming for them. I still hold WES, XOM, RDS, HMLP, and OGZPY. In that order of liquidation.

OGZPY is Russian gas and should be uncorrelated to a domestic fossil crackdown. HMLP is entirely non-US, but a fossil crackdown here will over time drive their feedstock prices higher, and the market will adjust it now accordingly. WES is a Western states pipeline operator that'll get decimated by fracking restrictions. XOM and RDS as supermajors is a harder call, as their strength to buy others and lobby gives them some protection. But to be in a sector under govt assault is dicey at best.

[rockgremlin]

I wouldn't exit all fossil plays entirely. The world still needs oil, and will continue to need oil for a while longer. Natural gas plays are good too as long as the company is sound and not in hot water. For example, Energy Transfer (ET) keeps getting hamstrung by the regulatory agencies and environmentalists. They're the company trying to put a pipeline through the Indian reservations in the Dakotas. Tough sledding.

If you're a coal company your goose is about cooked. The once mighty coal industry is against the ropes, and the referee has just passed 7 in his standing 8 count. The old coal giants (Peabody, ArchCoal, Murray Energy, Consol, etc) are currently or have been in various stages of bankruptcy. Kind of sad, really. The death of a once mighty industry is never pretty.

[oldno7]

My charting suggests we have 1 more new high in the gold/precious metal sector.
At this point, the further up, the risk increases, dramatically.
Those who have no means to see high and lows may get suckered in on a breakout to the upside.

Having said that--I don't see the gold rally as over, not by a long shot but it is in need of a serious pullback(opportunity to re buy)

Time is always on the side of the patient, I await a pullback.

[oldno7]

Sold some VSTO today at 18.25

Now my outlook has turned to GOLD--literally.

I think the 2 best stock plays in the gold market will be NEM and GOLD

With a nice pullback today, I'm looking to buy

I see NEM having the most upside.

Not a buy and hold situation, as none of mine are.

[rockgremlin]

^^^Why would you say that NEM has more upside? It's 2.5X the cost of GOLD, meaning you get about a third of the shares for the same amount of money.

They both respond to the market and behave in very similar ways but NEM is so much more expensive.

[oldno7]

^^^Why would you say that NEM has more upside? It's 2.5X the cost of GOLD, meaning you get about a third of the shares for the same amount of money.

They both respond to the market and behave in very similar ways but NEM is so much more expensive.

Actual cost is meaningless, % of return is the ultimate goal.

NEM has under performed in the sector and imo has a bigger upside.

My first goal is 10%ish.

With any stock making new highs, the upside is a void.

No support/resistance, it's an unknown and prices can get much more overboughter(I made up that word but like it)

[oldno7]

^^^Why would you say that NEM has more upside? It's 2.5X the cost of GOLD, meaning you get about a third of the shares for the same amount of money.

They both respond to the market and behave in very similar ways but NEM is so much more expensive.

One does not CONSISTENTLY make money in the stock market being lazy.

Research--grasshopper---research....

It's all just math...