40% Chance, Would you go?

[tdoughty]

Hi all, need some expert advice.

I have a permit for Zion's Imlay for Sunday, July 31, but NWS forecasts a 40% chance of thundershowers.

I'm thinking I should wait for another day.

Would you go?



Edit: now 30% chance on Saturday, with an undefined chance for our trip Sunday

[UtahAdventureGuide]

I'm debating the same thing so I would like to know what the weather was like down there today.

[Scott Card]

Having been in your position many times and with the info you have provided, I would probably go to the point of no return, meaning that first drop where you have to pull the ropes. Then I'd look up, discuss with my partners the risk and how they are feeling. I would then assess my own gut feelings and a decision would be made. So many other factors come into play too. You have to consider time of day, group dynamics, efficiency, speed of the group, and what if you are OK in Imlay but the Narrows are flashing from a far away storm? A bunch of things to consider. To me, the scariest canyon in Zion for flash flood danger IS the Narrows. Obviously, your decision should not even seriously be considered until the day before you go given the changing weather forecast. I always have a back up plan/canyon in these circumstances.

[UtahAdventureGuide]

The weather outlook for Friday just improved to partly cloudy and 20% chance of rain.

[Brian in SLC]

Hmmm...I'd take a look at the trend. Doesn't look good to me. We're in a bit of a juicy flow right now. 'Tis the season.

I'd be pretty cautious. No escape and a long day in a canyon? Probably not for me.

-Brian in SLC

"MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD TOWARD THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO MOST AREAS.
DEEPER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...
BRINGING THE THREAT OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING."

[Scott Card]

Yah, like I said. Making a decision today doesn't make much sense. Weather changes (imagine that!). I guess the real issue is whether you must do Imlay and only Imlay or are you taking time to canyoneer and get away? Are you flexible? One of my favorite days in a canyon was doing Pine Creek the day after a huge flash flood. Our original plan was Imlay. But we were there and we made the best of it.

[tdoughty]

Thanks for the feedback.

Guess one thing I didn't mention is I'm driving out from the San Diego, CA area after work on Friday night, and need to be back to work Monday morning. Of course I would enjoy another canyon (if permitting allows) but given the driving effort I do kinda have my heart set on Imlay.

So my go-no go drive decision happens Friday.

I am also planning on being in Zion for a week in September, (allowing more flexibility) so I may just wait till then....

[rockgremlin]

Hmmm...I'd take a look at the trend. Doesn't look good to me. We're in a bit of a juicy flow right now. 'Tis the season.

I'd be pretty cautious. No escape and a long day in a canyon? Probably not for me.

-Brian in SLC

Good advice. Canyoneering should be fun...threat of being washed into your grave generally isn't very fun.

[spinesnaper]

Crappy weather. I have a trip planned for Zion in two weeks, but we can be flexible. Hope your weather turns. Otherwise, I understand that canyon will be there for a while.

Ken

[canyoncaver]

Imlay Canyon will definitely still be around after monsoon season...