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Thread: 2011 Snowpack vs. Record Breaking + Flood Watch

  1. #1

    2011 Snowpack vs. Record Breaking + Flood Watch

    For those interested, late April storms pushed the Wasatch snowpack depth to record breaking. For weather watchers, 2011 snowpack will be interesting to track, but flooding is pretty much a sure bet.

    Seasonal and monthly snowfall records were not broken at the official weather stations in the Wasatch, but the snow was well above average and peaked very late in the year and several daily snow depth and snowfall records were broken. So far, the maximum snowdepth at Alta Guard Station was an impressive 164 inches on April 29, the latest snow depth of 164 inches ever recorded in a season (the record depth at Alta Guard is 179 inches set on April 7 1958). Snowdepths at "mid-mountain" at the ski resorts have been measured at impressive 200+ inches this season. The highest I saw was 204 inches at Alta, but I didn't check it on a daily basis, so it could have been eclipsed.

    Right now with warm weather, snow depth has currently fallen below record depths, but cool temperatures and storms could change that.

    Below is a comparison of 2011 snow depth vs the record depth at Alta Guard Station. I could do one for Silver Lake Brighton, but it's hard to track on a daily basis since the database isn't updated daily. Unfortunately, the official weather station a Park City Summit is no longer operating.

    Utah is a very special and unique place. There is no where else like it on earth. Please take care of it and keep the remaining wild areas in pristine condition. The world will be a better place if you do.

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  3. #2
    Last week, out of curiosity, I went up Rock Canyon in Provo to check what I thought would be a heavy flowing Rock Canyon Stream. There wasn't a drop. Surprisingly the runoff hadn't even begun. I went back there today to peek to see if there was a flow and sure enough it has finally started. We will see what happens when all the snow starts coming down this week. If it stays fairly cool it should be OK around Utah Valley.
    Life is Good

  4. #3
    It will be cool until Thursday and then it warms to 70-75 through Saturday.


  5. #4
    My curiosity got the best of me so on a break I dashed up Provo Canyon and both the North and South fork creeks look like they are just getting started too. Sand bags out in Sundance and sand bags out in Vivian Park/South Fork cabins. Could get interesting. I just saw 80 degrees forcast this weekend in northern Utah.
    Life is Good

  6. #5
    I have updated the chart.

    We have had flooding here (Yampa River) the past few days, but luckily I live on a hill. It's also been snowing and raining here today, but the temps are cooler so the river currently isn't rising.
    Utah is a very special and unique place. There is no where else like it on earth. Please take care of it and keep the remaining wild areas in pristine condition. The world will be a better place if you do.

  7. #6
    Yeah, Little Cottonwood Canyon has not even begun to melt off the snow pack above 8,000 ft. And Willow Creek in my backyard is running high already. I anticipate some serious flooding to occur once the snow finally does melt. But it does not even seem to be going anywhere. They got 6" of fresh on Monday up there. I rode most of last week up there, it was spring conditions, but not a full mountain thaw that is for sure. If we jump in temps it is going to be crazy to see how much water those creeks can handle.

  8. #7
    I saw this posted on another forum and was trying to verify the numbers but keep getting lost on the NOAA site
    I do know the guy has something to do with the snow surveys.

    " ya... its just about ready to bust... think about these:
    hyrum has about 5,000 acre feet to fill, forecast is for 106,000. smith morehouse has about 5,000 af to fill, forecast is for 220,000. lost creek has about 7,000 af to fill, forecast 39,000. east canyon to fill 9,000 forecast is for 71,000 pineview to fill 45,000 forecast is for 275,000. jordanell and deer creek to fill, 120,000 forecast is for 260,000.
    as of yesterday, the bear river had lost 7% of its snowpack, the weber 1%, the provo 9% and the duchesne 16%. normally we would have been in the 50% to 60% snowpack melted state by now. bear lake came up 132,000 acf in april, highest ever. without any mountian snowpack melt. sevier river kingston - second highest april flow since 1915. gonna be fun."

  9. #8
    I got an email this morning that a scout for his Eagle Project is calling out volunteers to fill sandbags today for the creek in Maple Canyon (Mapleton). Great and timely project. I wish I could have been there instead of at work. Seems many people are concerned. Hope for a cool few weeks.
    Life is Good

  10. #9
    Hope for a cool few weeks.
    That will probably make it worse (flooding wise). If May stays cool and then it heats up in late May/June, it's really going to come down. That's what happened in 1983. It stayed cool until about May 23 and then heated up (temps pushing 90 around Memorial Day weekend). Most creeks usually don't peak until June (late May for some). Cool weather for the next few weeks would actually probably add to the flooding as it will get warmer later regardless and the more that comes down before peak runoff might actually help. If there is still 10 feet of snow on the ground by June, then...

    I saw this posted on another forum and was trying to verify the numbers but keep getting lost on the NOAA site
    Yeah, that's easy to do.

    Try the SLC home page for NOAA for warnings:

    http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/slc/

    And the NOAA Hydrology section:

    http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/slc/river/

    It has lots of info, but it can be a pain to wade through.

    Maybe also try the SNOTEL sites as they can be easier to navigate and will have information for more locations:

    http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/snotel/Utah/utah.html

    They have nice graphs as well and have started putting temperature data in US units.

    I like the SNOTEL site since it will graph the current water year vs the average. Unfortunately, for some reason (as mentioned on another thead) the SNOTEL sites aren't official weather stations (at least concerning all time records), but they are very informative and you can compare years side by side.

    There is lots of great information to wade through on the SNOTEL site.
    Utah is a very special and unique place. There is no where else like it on earth. Please take care of it and keep the remaining wild areas in pristine condition. The world will be a better place if you do.

  11. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by Scott P View Post
    That will probably make it worse (flooding wise). If May stays cool and then it heats up in late May/June, it's really going to come down. That's what happened in 1983. It stayed cool until about May 23 and then heated up (temps pushing 90 around Memorial Day weekend). Most creeks usually don't peak until June (late May for some). Cool weather for the next few weeks would actually probably add to the flooding as it will get warmer later regardless and the more that comes down before peak runoff might actually help.
    I must be confused. The news is saying if we have a sudden heat up then we are in big trouble. I thought a couple of weeks of moderate/cool weather would help bring it down more gradually. Are we saying something different from each other? If so what is the best possible scenario in you opinion?
    Life is Good

  12. #11
    Bluegrass Junkie powderglut's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Scott P View Post
    I have updated the chart.

    We have had flooding here (Yampa River) the past few days, but luckily I live on a hill. It's also been snowing and raining here today, but the temps are cooler so the river currently isn't rising.
    Hey Scott, I read in the local paper the other day that Buffalo Pass set a state record for water content. There's never been a higher reading since they've recorded this stuff.
    Better get ready for the Yampa to be huge this year!

  13. #12
    The news is saying if we have a sudden heat up then we are in big trouble.
    If it heats up now, yes, it can and probably will flood. If it stays cool through most of May and the snow melts slowly (or it snows more) and then a heat wave hits when the creeks are already bank full, it will flood more. Warm (not hot) weather now should be good for the future.

    I thought a couple of weeks of moderate/cool weather would help bring it down more gradually.
    It will heat up regardless and there is no way that the snow will be melted by the time it happens. If it stays cool and the snowpack doesn't decrease, a heat wave in late May or June will be more disastrous than it would now (especially since temperatures this time of year seldom rise over the lower to mid-80's on the valley floors and are typically much short lived than they are later in the year).

    If so what is the best possible scenario in you opinion?
    Same as the state hydrologist puts it: The worst case scenarios are cold and wet or hot and wet or dry. The best case scenario is warm and dry to gradually melt the snowpack and limit more precipitation.

    http://www.abc4.com/content/news/flo...Qq9uKpJAw.cspx

    Worst would be for it to stay cool and snowy through May and then have a 100 degree heat wave (80's in the mountains) with 10+ feet of snow on the ground, but even 1983 didn't do that.

    Hey Scott, I read in the local paper the other day that Buffalo Pass set a state record for water content. Better get ready for the Yampa to be huge this year!
    Wanna go rafting? Unlike many rivers, the Yampa is mostly free flowing and doesn't have a big dam controlling it.

    Of course, many people in NW Colorado were praying for water. I assume the same is true in Utah. At least the states aren't going to be arguing about water this year.
    Utah is a very special and unique place. There is no where else like it on earth. Please take care of it and keep the remaining wild areas in pristine condition. The world will be a better place if you do.

  14. #13
    The above chart is updated.

    I'll try to put some charts together for more locations sometime in the near future and post them above. Maybe I'll try and put together some charts for stations in NE Colorado and SE Wyoming.

    Baggs Wyoming is probably going to flood this weekend.

    Temps are supposed to be in the 50's at 10,000 feet here. The same is true for the Wasatch.
    Utah is a very special and unique place. There is no where else like it on earth. Please take care of it and keep the remaining wild areas in pristine condition. The world will be a better place if you do.

  15. #14
    It is heating up fast. It was near 80 in SLC today.


  16. #15
    Resident Southern Belle savanna3313's Avatar
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    The weird part about down here in Louisiana is that we are actually in a drought in regards to rain, yet we are opening a second spillway today to relieve the overflowing Mississippi River which hasn't been done since 1973. http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us_missis...river_flooding I don't know how much more La can take! Hopefully Utah won't experience anything major in regards to flooding. My home there is close to a couple of seasonal streams.
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  17. #16
    A new daily snow depth record was set today (May 17) at the Alta Guard Station, beating out 1983 by an inch (see chart above). It's supposed to snow the rest of the week in both the Wasatch and NW Colorado as well.

    Sorry I haven't got around to making some charts for other locations; I've been working late hours.
    Utah is a very special and unique place. There is no where else like it on earth. Please take care of it and keep the remaining wild areas in pristine condition. The world will be a better place if you do.

  18. #17
    We were just talking about this the other day [the '83 snowmelts that flooded SLC]. Insane, this all is! And we didn't get record snowpacks up in the San Juans, but the same principles are applying as far as the melt and the negative impact it will for trout in the Animas if it melts too quickly and too soon.

    Savanna - it sounds like it could be a really bad scene in the floodplain areas of LA; I heard them discussing the situation on NPR a couple of days ago, and it sounds like the parishes around New Orleans could be in serious trouble as a result of the floodwaters they are trying to divert from New Orleans. Scary stuff if you live there . I feel sorry for anyone that has to evacuate and possibly lose their house from this.

    And, I'll keep my fingers crossed that the impact is minimal and that the warming trend is steady throughout UT/CO so there aren't any of those massive melts in late May or June that would cause rivers to flood and cause damage. One can always hope for the best, right ?
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  19. #18
    Right now the snowpack is increasing. Visually the snow level seems to be about 7000 feet this morning around here. Tomorrow it's supposed to be 34F here with a 90% chance of rain, so we should be right at the snow level. Snow is fairly common in May here, but it sure has been wet. In 1983 SLC recieved 5.0" of snow on May 11 at the airport, but some of the benches got a foot. Hopefully there will be no more storms like that this year as the snowpack is very deep.

    The mountains in this region are getting hit hard with snow as are the Wasatch. Check out these weather forecast for the mountains:






    There are winter storm warnings out for the mountains.

    Flooding wise, this is a bad case senerio and it's getting worse as time goes on.
    Utah is a very special and unique place. There is no where else like it on earth. Please take care of it and keep the remaining wild areas in pristine condition. The world will be a better place if you do.

  20. #19
    Yeah, things are getting worse for sure. Plus with all the lower elevation rain saturating the ground, the water table is rising. So the ground will not help the melt when it does finally start melting, so it will cause the waterways to run even harder. I expect that catastrophic flooding is going to occur. I backpacked Escalante this past weekend, and not kidding the Paria River was in places above knee deep. This compared to 2007 when I hiked the same area, I could walk through all the water with my hiking boots on, never deep enough to go over the top of my boots. I was in my Keens all the way to and from the car hiking the Paria section Sat and Sun.

    I would like to see the data concerning the Nuclear Melt down in Japan and the atmospheric change from the release of the radiation. From the information I have seen in radiation counts hitting the jet stream, I wonder if there is a correlation to that melt down and it accelerating the La Nina cycle. All I know is shortly after the Tsunami, and the radiation leak, Little Cottonwood Canyon got pounded non-stop, and it is still nuking up there. They have gotten 20" in the last 48 hours up there, and it is still winter temps up there. It is May 18th, and we still have a 180" base up there. Gnarly! Bonus for me, I'll be getting lift accessed pow turns Friday morning that is for sure.

  21. #20
    There's snow on my lawn this morning though it's just a nasty, crusty and thin layer kind of snow. It's a sure bet that the mountains got pounded last night.
    Utah is a very special and unique place. There is no where else like it on earth. Please take care of it and keep the remaining wild areas in pristine condition. The world will be a better place if you do.

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