Swell conditions for this weekend... Or anywhere else for that matter

[Ryebrye]

So, looks like pretty much everywhere with technical canyons in Utah has a 30% chance of thunderstorms and it seems like every day there are flash flood warnings put into effect.

I have a few people in town that I have a short window (pretty much this weekend) to take through a canyon. I was hoping to take them through the Squeeze, but if the weather forecast stays bad and flash flood warnings stay in effect, I'll need to have an alternate plan.

For afternoon thunderstorms I'm ok with taking them and getting a super early start on the approach to beat any thunderstorms that might get us - but if it's more than just a forecast for afternoon thunderstorms (i.e. you wake up and there are already rain clouds in the sky) then I would definitely not do it and find something else to do. (maybe just go to some of the old abandoned crap around the swell, or go to goblin valley and hump some hoodoos)

Anyone have a crystal ball and know of a suitable backup plan for the squeeze for this weekend?

Maybe Zero G? If Zero G flashes, you'd just get washed back to the car... ;)

Ryan

[Iceaxe]

You must be a glutton for punishment.... hiking up the Moroni Slopes in 100+ degrees is going to be brutal....

Knotted Rope is a pretty safe alternative as the collection area is very small and it has to rain hard right on top of you to cause a flash. Also lots of escapes to where you can sit out a flash. If the canyon does flash it's usually over within 30 minutes. It also shares a trailhead with the Squeeze so you can decide the morning of. Only downside is the Hidden Splendor TH is deep in the canyon and it's hard to see what's coming from the west. I've done Knotted Rope a few hours after it has flashed and the slot becomes a simple romp in a water park. YMMV....

Most of the Moab stuff is also very pretty friendly with regards to turbulent weather. Just use a little commonsense....

[Ryebrye]

Yeah, we're thinking of using the Wild Horse Mesa trail and a tricked out jeep and getting down right by muddy creek - probably come from Goblin Valley side and maybe hit up goblin valley on the way in depending upon time.

Yep, it will be brutal. To try (somewhat) to beat the heat we'll probably start hiking around 4 or 5 at the latest.

Knotted rope sounds like a good alternative. If the forecast looks REALLY bad we might just go hike in Zion and not do any canyons at all... I don't mind getting wet when hiking, but I do mind death.

[Iceaxe]

Yeah, we're thinking of using the Wild Horse Mesa trail and a tricked out jeep and getting down right by muddy creek - probably come from Goblin Valley side and maybe hit up goblin valley on the way in depending upon time.

At one time (5 or 6 years ago) you could come in from the bottom and drive right to the base of the Moroni Slopes in a 4x4.... but not any more. The old access road is now closed to 4x4's and ATV's. You now have to hike (2 or 3 miles) from where the Wild Horse Mesa Road crosses Muddy Creek. If coming in from that directon using the Factory Butte access is the easiest/fastest.

[Ryebrye]

Thanks for the info, I was wondering about that - I saw the little trail marked on the old topo maps. "But officer, I see this road here on this government-created map that I got from an authoritative source. Therefore I assumed some vandals had constructed these signs that are placed here to close this road off..." (Or did they close it off with one of those crazy spike-fence things like the road down from hidden splendor?) I wonder what bureaucrat gets to decide which roads to close and which ones not to, and what criteria they use. ("Lets close this one. It looks like it could be mildly useful to hikers.")

Yeah, that sucks that they closed that. When camping in the hidden splendor the hike out up stream and then up the hill in the sun was always the worst part in my opinion (we always get early starts so the moroni slopes part doesn't suck that bad) - If starting at the wild horse mesa / muddy creek crossing you are exiting in the creek the whole way back right? So you can kind of dip in the muddy water and cool off a bit on the exit I assume?

[Iceaxe]

Last time I was there the road was closed with the typical BLM log barricade with a sign attached.

And in this case I know which bureaucrat got to decide..... the ATV guys and BLM got together and had a little chat. In the end the BLM opened the Behind The Reef Road back up if the ATV guys would stop zooming up and down the Muddy Creek Gorge.

There are probably some threads in the Bogley archive on the subject.

All the route information from both the top and bottom is detailed in the route descriptions when you join the Dark Side.

[CarpeyBiggs]

Chris' jeep will have no problem from the GV side or Factory Butte side. The road is still there, and passable. I did it in my xterra last fall going from GV to Factory Butte, though crossing the muddy was a little nervewracking, and the flashes this year will probably mean crossing the river is not possible.

A few years ago the whole area washed out in a flood, a couple miles of road right below the gorge were completely gone. The road was back in last fall though, after being impassable for awhile. We've done it a couple times from the Muddy Creek crossing. It's quick and easy, and faster. You can't drive right onto the moroni slopes, but it's close enough... Closer than Hidden Splendor. You guys will be fine.

[CarpeyBiggs]

yes, you can follow the river back to the road after the canyon, if you want, but it's less direct. though there is a cross country route that is fast as well on the way up.

[Ryebrye]

Cool, thanks for the info Shan & Dan.

Also - welcome back to civilization Dan... If you are around and wanted to meet up with us, you are more than welcome to. Not sure when our plans will finalize, but we'll probably solidify them around thursday night. Unfortunately, we wont have any room to carpool since we'll have 3 other guys (my brother in laws) filling out the not-so-spacious backseat of Chris's car... Probably gonna do the whole wild horse mesa loop and drop by goblin valley too... maybe do ramp and / or cistern canyon too on Friday. A lot depends on the weather.

Our new "if the weather forecast sucks" plan will be to just bail on canyons entirely and go do some hikes in Zion. If the weather has a chance of being favorable we'll go to the swell and if the weather looks bad in the morning we'll either just drive around and look at old ruins or do some of the less-risky ones (maybe knotted rope, etc)

[Ryebrye]

The weather forecast is looking better to me for the swell already.

Today there was a record low at the Bryce Airport (73 - tied 1968 at 73 degrees also). Saturday has a current projected high temp of only 85 degrees... in late July - I'll march up Moroni slopes a dozen times in 85 degree weather! :)

So heat shouldn't be a factor... now it's just a matter of praying away the rain ... or sacrificing something to some rain god or something...