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Thread: When will it be spring?
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02-26-2010, 06:49 PM #1
When will it be spring?
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." - Yogi Berra
Raining and snowing in Mt Carmel again, this week. Brought to mind the previous super-snowy year which led to some mayhem and disappointments. When will the southland come "into condition" for canyoneering, and what should people expect?
A lot depends on the speed and timing of the warming cycle, but I think this early we can make some Wild Ass Guesses, unencumbered by facts...
I would expect all canyons to rather wet this spring. I am hoping that places that rarely fill up will find the melting cycle sufficient to put water in many potholes that are usually dry or dryish. Such canyons as Knotted Rope, Quandary and the Squeeze in the Swell could be great fun this spring.
Many of the canyons on "the circuit" do not hold water much, and thus will be in normal conditions unless the spring is rainy too, and then they usually take about a week to dry out. I'm thinking the Leprechauns, Hogs and Shenanigans here. Seems like Trail, Maidenwater and Merry Piglet could have cold swims quite far into the spring. Pandora fits the earlier category, though it is up high, and that one pool can hold water quite a ways into the spring. Bluejohn is likely to have a long cold swim after the only mandatory rappel in the East Fork. By doing the Squeeze fork, one avoids the rappel, but still gets to enjoy the swim.
Neon and Choprock are likely to be full full full and wet wet wet. Choprock could be very difficult AND extremely cold - I would expect summer conditions in that area to re-establish itself only in middle June or so.
Zion is likely to be in the grasp of 'winter' well into June. Lots of snow up
there in the high country, I'm thinking about July 4th weekend for the Narrows to open, and for the canyons that go into it to be available, such as Imlay, Orderville and Mystery. The North Fork Road should be on a normal schedule - and therefore become passable about May 15th? Might be a good boating season in the Narrows, if the road becomes passable while the river is still up.
Canyons in Zion will vary with altitude as to when they become "normal". South facing, small basin canyons like Fat Man's Behunin and Spry will likely see a lot of traffic. The Subway is likely to be running hard (as in, too high) for two or three weeks in the later April / early May timeframe. Echo will likely be entertaining as an extreme snow climb well into June, but not really as a casual beginner canyon until July 4th weekend, if then. Engelstead seems to be a good choice even with snow in it. Kolob unlikely until middle July. Boundary might be awesome in June, excellent in July.
Those are my predictions - what do other people think?
Tom
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02-26-2010 06:49 PM # ADS
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02-26-2010, 06:57 PM #2
All this snow in southern Utah is killing me.... I believe this is the first time in the past ten years I didn't make at least one canyoneering trip in January and/or Feburary.
I'm thinking the Zion backcountry desk will be a huge traffic jam/big ass mess this spring and early summer with the Narrows closed eliminating many popular routes.
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02-27-2010, 05:07 AM #3
Re: When will it be spring?
Originally Posted by ratagonia
Oh well, will enter the Mystery lottery, hope for a warm spring and take my chances I guess.
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02-27-2010, 06:20 AM #4
I remember about 3 years ago or so that a bunch of snow fell in Southern Utah. We hit the Poison Springs area in early March and to my surprise the area was totally dry, not a flake of snow anywhere, but the temps at night/early morning were in the high teens. Maybe this year will be the same.
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02-27-2010, 01:55 PM #5
Just checked the Kolob weather station snow totals.
This year there 23.6 in of Snow Water Equivalent & 78 in snow depth.
Last year at the same time there was 24.0 in Snow Water Equivalent & 74 in snow depth.
In 2008 at the same time there was 25.0 in Snow Water Equivalent & 80 in snow depth.
Both in 2009 & 2008 the narrows opened late May.
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02-27-2010, 02:50 PM #6Originally Posted by trackrunner
http://tinyurl.com/yfuxuhg
Tom
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02-27-2010, 05:10 PM #7
That's odd. Trackrunner IS quoting snotel data, but it's from the "older" site:
http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/nwcc/sn...ays=7&state=ut
Reads 23.6 SWE and 78 inches deep, as he says. Tom's link is the one I usually check, but the numbers for the Kolob station there are very different: 13.8 SWE, 20.9 inches deep, which frankly seems less believable than the larger numbers. Still, that's apparently 151% of average for today. I wonder why the discrepancy, and which one if either is correct?
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02-27-2010, 05:16 PM #8Originally Posted by jb
T
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03-01-2010, 12:09 PM #9
I took a look at the stations around the head waters of the N. Virgin which can be found in the attached excel file.
The YTD measurements are slightly more than this time in 2008. What is pushing the Virgin measurement up is the snow pack along the E. Virgin (which doesn
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03-01-2010, 01:09 PM #10
[quote=trackrunner]I took a look at the stations around the head waters of the N. Virgin which can be found in the attached excel file.
The YTD measurements are slightly more than this time in 2008. What is pushing the Virgin measurement up is the snow pack along the E. Virgin (which doesn
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03-01-2010, 01:35 PM #11Originally Posted by ratagonia
edit: and the N. Virgin is about 150% above normal.
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03-01-2010, 04:44 PM #12Originally Posted by trackrunner
Tom
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03-02-2010, 08:34 AM #13
North Fork road snow questions
We did Englestead in June last year with lots of snow. Some parts seemed a little sketchy, with melting snow bridges over our heads. Doesn't it ever get too dangerous in there? I saw Tom said it was fine even with lots of snow.
How about the snow situation in Birch? I have seen TR's from November and December, but not from February-March. That's because of the road I assume. Anybody been there in dead of winter? How about early May? Anybody seen lots of snow in Birch?
Thanks,
Andy
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03-02-2010, 11:50 AM #14
Re: North Fork road snow questions
Originally Posted by canyoncaver
Originally Posted by canyoncaver
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03-02-2010, 12:57 PM #15
Thanks for the reply.
I just realized that I went through Birch Hollow in early May last year and there was only a little snow so that answers that one.
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03-02-2010, 02:05 PM #16
Re: North Fork road snow questions
Originally Posted by trackrunner
The contrast at that time was to Kolob, which was very dangerous for a long period of time (the year before). I think the differences are: a. higher altitude, more snow collection; b. E-W orientation rather than E's N-S; and most important: c. continuous flow of water to hollow it out from underneath. Kinda like Echo, on a much larger scale.
Originally Posted by trackrunner
Tom
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03-03-2010, 09:20 AM #17
Woohoo.... spring is approaching and the weather seems to be improving..... I'm getting stoked to get back out.
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03-03-2010, 02:06 PM #18Originally Posted by Iceaxe
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03-03-2010, 02:16 PM #19
Yes sir.... today was the first day that felt like spring to me.... I was outside at lunch.... 50 degrees, no snow, and sunny.... so I dug out my maps and my to-do list and started doing some planning.....
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03-03-2010, 02:52 PM #20
Yea, I've been working in St. George the last few days, and 65 feels real nice.
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