When will it be spring?

[ratagonia]

"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." - Yogi Berra

Raining and snowing in Mt Carmel again, this week. Brought to mind the previous super-snowy year which led to some mayhem and disappointments. When will the southland come "into condition" for canyoneering, and what should people expect?

A lot depends on the speed and timing of the warming cycle, but I think this early we can make some Wild Ass Guesses, unencumbered by facts...

I would expect all canyons to rather wet this spring. I am hoping that places that rarely fill up will find the melting cycle sufficient to put water in many potholes that are usually dry or dryish. Such canyons as Knotted Rope, Quandary and the Squeeze in the Swell could be great fun this spring.

Many of the canyons on "the circuit" do not hold water much, and thus will be in normal conditions unless the spring is rainy too, and then they usually take about a week to dry out. I'm thinking the Leprechauns, Hogs and Shenanigans here. Seems like Trail, Maidenwater and Merry Piglet could have cold swims quite far into the spring. Pandora fits the earlier category, though it is up high, and that one pool can hold water quite a ways into the spring. Bluejohn is likely to have a long cold swim after the only mandatory rappel in the East Fork. By doing the Squeeze fork, one avoids the rappel, but still gets to enjoy the swim.

Neon and Choprock are likely to be full full full and wet wet wet. Choprock could be very difficult AND extremely cold - I would expect summer conditions in that area to re-establish itself only in middle June or so.

Zion is likely to be in the grasp of 'winter' well into June. Lots of snow up
there in the high country, I'm thinking about July 4th weekend for the Narrows to open, and for the canyons that go into it to be available, such as Imlay, Orderville and Mystery. The North Fork Road should be on a normal schedule - and therefore become passable about May 15th? Might be a good boating season in the Narrows, if the road becomes passable while the river is still up.

Canyons in Zion will vary with altitude as to when they become "normal". South facing, small basin canyons like Fat Man's Behunin and Spry will likely see a lot of traffic. The Subway is likely to be running hard (as in, too high) for two or three weeks in the later April / early May timeframe. Echo will likely be entertaining as an extreme snow climb well into June, but not really as a casual beginner canyon until July 4th weekend, if then. Engelstead seems to be a good choice even with snow in it. Kolob unlikely until middle July. Boundary might be awesome in June, excellent in July.

Those are my predictions - what do other people think?

Tom

[Iceaxe]

All this snow in southern Utah is killing me.... I believe this is the first time in the past ten years I didn't make at least one canyoneering trip in January and/or Feburary.



I'm thinking the Zion backcountry desk will be a huge traffic jam/big ass mess this spring and early summer with the Narrows closed eliminating many popular routes.

[sarahlizzy]

Zion is likely to be in the grasp of 'winter' well into June. Lots of snow up
there in the high country, I'm thinking about July 4th weekend for the Narrows to open, and for the canyons that go into it to be available, such as Imlay, Orderville and Mystery.

Poo. Looks like I lost the gamble with flight bookings for June. :-/

Oh well, will enter the Mystery lottery, hope for a warm spring and take my chances I guess.

[Wasatch]

I remember about 3 years ago or so that a bunch of snow fell in Southern Utah. We hit the Poison Springs area in early March and to my surprise the area was totally dry, not a flake of snow anywhere, but the temps at night/early morning were in the high teens. Maybe this year will be the same.

[trackrunner]

Just checked the Kolob weather station snow totals.

This year there 23.6 in of Snow Water Equivalent & 78 in snow depth.

Last year at the same time there was 24.0 in Snow Water Equivalent & 74 in snow depth.

In 2008 at the same time there was 25.0 in Snow Water Equivalent & 80 in snow depth.

Both in 2009 & 2008 the narrows opened late May.

[ratagonia]

Just checked the Kolob weather station snow totals.

This year there 23.6 in of Snow Water Equivalent & 78 in snow depth.

Last year at the same time there was 24.0 in Snow Water Equivalent & 74 in snow depth.

In 2008 at the same time there was 25.0 in Snow Water Equivalent & 80 in snow depth.

Both in 2009 & 2008 the narrows opened late May.

I think the Snotel data is more applicable, shows 173% of average:

http://tinyurl.com/yfuxuhg

Tom

[jb]

That's odd. Trackrunner IS quoting snotel data, but it's from the "older" site:

http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/nwcc/sn...ays=7&state=ut

Reads 23.6 SWE and 78 inches deep, as he says. Tom's link is the one I usually check, but the numbers for the Kolob station there are very different: 13.8 SWE, 20.9 inches deep, which frankly seems less believable than the larger numbers. Still, that's apparently 151% of average for today. I wonder why the discrepancy, and which one if either is correct?

[ratagonia]

That's odd. Trackrunner IS quoting snotel data, but it's from the "older" site:

http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/nwcc/sn...ays=7&state=ut

Reads 23.6 SWE and 78 inches deep, as he says. Tom's link is the one I usually check, but the numbers for the Kolob station there are very different: 13.8 SWE, 20.9 inches deep, which frankly seems less believable than the larger numbers. Still, that's apparently 151% of average for today. I wonder why the discrepancy, and which one if either is correct?

Individual weather tracking stations can have anomolies, so I guess I think the basin-wide information is more applicable.

T

[trackrunner]

I took a look at the stations around the head waters of the N. Virgin which can be found in the attached excel file.

The YTD measurements are slightly more than this time in 2008. What is pushing the Virgin measurement up is the snow pack along the E. Virgin (which doesn

[ratagonia]

[quote=trackrunner]I took a look at the stations around the head waters of the N. Virgin which can be found in the attached excel file.

The YTD measurements are slightly more than this time in 2008. What is pushing the Virgin measurement up is the snow pack along the E. Virgin (which doesn

[trackrunner]

I think it feels like more snow because it has snowed so many days here. Last February was dry and sunny. Beautiful and warm today, didn't even freeze last night, I think. March - IN like a lamb, OUT like a lion???

Tom

Well it should feel like more snow because there is more snow. Aren't you over by th E. Virgin. E. Virgin is about 240 to 250% above normal. Does it feel about 2.5 times more snow over by you?

edit: and the N. Virgin is about 150% above normal.

[ratagonia]

I think it feels like more snow because it has snowed so many days here. Last February was dry and sunny. Beautiful and warm today, didn't even freeze last night, I think. March - IN like a lamb, OUT like a lion???

Tom

Well it should feel like more snow because there is more snow. Aren't you over by th E. Virgin. E. Virgin is about 240 to 250% above normal. Does it feel about 2.5 times more snow over by you?

edit: and the N. Virgin is about 150% above normal.

I am confused: why are YOU quicker to pick up on the geographic implications than I am????? Yes, entirely correct, I am in the East Virgin basin, and driving up 89 is the East Virgin basin, at least to Todd's Corner. Yes, it feels like significantly more snow than last year.

Tom

[canyoncaver]

We did Englestead in June last year with lots of snow. Some parts seemed a little sketchy, with melting snow bridges over our heads. Doesn't it ever get too dangerous in there? I saw Tom said it was fine even with lots of snow.

How about the snow situation in Birch? I have seen TR's from November and December, but not from February-March. That's because of the road I assume. Anybody been there in dead of winter? How about early May? Anybody seen lots of snow in Birch?

Thanks,

Andy

[trackrunner]

We did Englestead in June last year with lots of snow. Some parts seemed a little sketchy, with melting snow bridges over our heads. Doesn't it ever get too dangerous in there? I saw Tom said it was fine even with lots of snow.

I've seen TR with a lot of snow in June including one where someone used an iceaxe. As for does it ever get dangerous in there more so than normal conditions I'm not the one to ask.

How about the snow situation in Birch? I have seen TR's from November and December, but not from February-March. That's because of the road I assume. Anybody been there in dead of winter? How about early May? Anybody seen lots of snow in Birch?

I've seen TR from March 2008 here and there was lots of snow, ice, & mud. Though it probably doesn't have the collection of avalanche snow & snow bridges over the cliffs like Englestead & Echo receive. I remember in TR the road was a major problem.

[canyoncaver]

Thanks for the reply.

I just realized that I went through Birch Hollow in early May last year and there was only a little snow so that answers that one.

[ratagonia]

We did Englestead in June last year with lots of snow. Some parts seemed a little sketchy, with melting snow bridges over our heads. Doesn't it ever get too dangerous in there? I saw Tom said it was fine even with lots of snow.

I've seen TR with a lot of snow in June including one where someone used an iceaxe. As for does it ever get dangerous in there more so than normal conditions I'm not the one to ask.

I'm sure it gets dangerous in there at times. Heck, I bet its really dangerous in there right now, with huge chunks of ice falling from the rim. However, I GUESS, based on trip reports from last year, that the period of hanging snow-bridges and high danger is relatively short in Engelstead.

The contrast at that time was to Kolob, which was very dangerous for a long period of time (the year before). I think the differences are: a. higher altitude, more snow collection; b. E-W orientation rather than E's N-S; and most important: c. continuous flow of water to hollow it out from underneath. Kinda like Echo, on a much larger scale.

How about the snow situation in Birch? I have seen TR's from November and December, but not from February-March. That's because of the road I assume. Anybody been there in dead of winter? How about early May? Anybody seen lots of snow in Birch?

I've seen TR from March 2008 here and there was lots of snow, ice, & mud. Though it probably doesn't have the collection of avalanche snow & snow bridges over the cliffs like Englestead & Echo receive. I remember in TR the road was a major problem.

Did Birch in a dry year in March. Muddy and messy, but there was no snow that year.

Tom

[Iceaxe]

Woohoo.... spring is approaching and the weather seems to be improving..... I'm getting stoked to get back out.

[oldno7]

Woohoo.... spring is approaching and the weather seems to be improving.....

Says the guy from NORTHERN Utah.

[Iceaxe]

Yes sir.... today was the first day that felt like spring to me.... I was outside at lunch.... 50 degrees, no snow, and sunny.... so I dug out my maps and my to-do list and started doing some planning.....

[oldno7]

Yea, I've been working in St. George the last few days, and 65 feels real nice.