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  1. Thread: Stocks

    by dougr
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    1,184
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    92,038

    That's better than 360 degrees from me. I take...

    That's better than 360 degrees from me. I take heart in what you're saying and pray to God you're right and I'm dead a%% wrong. Plain and simple.
  2. Thread: Stocks

    by dougr
    Replies
    1,184
    Views
    92,038

    Then on top of all that, you have the election...

    Then on top of all that, you have the election risk. Which I count as 80%+ odds a Dem sweep. Then the return of the high corp taxes, open borders, and regulation up the a%%. That still isn't priced...
  3. Thread: Stocks

    by dougr
    Replies
    1,184
    Views
    92,038

    Couple charts to emphasize that bear market...

    Couple charts to emphasize that bear market rallies have been substantial and lengthy before. Nothing unusual so far. The only thing that'll turn around this fate is a vax or cure. Which I don't see...
  4. Thread: Stocks

    by dougr
    Replies
    1,184
    Views
    92,038

    I don't think it will be a crash to 15-18k. I...

    I don't think it will be a crash to 15-18k. I expect a low volatility bear market for quite some time to 15-18k, a la Japan after their go-go years. Earnings are just terrible. The market is grossly...
  5. Thread: Stocks

    by dougr
    Replies
    1,184
    Views
    92,038

    Site with many contract prices. ...

    Site with many contract prices. https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/block/49 It appears these are all the nearest month. Some are delayed.

    WTI monthly contract prices:...
  6. Thread: Stocks

    by dougr
    Replies
    1,184
    Views
    92,038

    For me, the next month or so will dictate if I...

    For me, the next month or so will dictate if I get entirely out of equities.

    The cascading risks are these:

    -deep recession lasts into 2021
    -Dems sweep
    -increased tax and regulatory burden...
  7. Thread: 2020

    by dougr
    Replies
    1,890
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    73,616

    With Bernie suspending, I'm not sure if this...

    With Bernie suspending, I'm not sure if this makes the road easier for Biden to decline the nom, or easier to keep it since he no longer has to expose his weak self as much along the way.
  8. Thread: 2020

    by dougr
    Replies
    1,890
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    73,616

    https://www.foxnews.com/politics/dnc-convention-co...

    https://www.foxnews.com/politics/dnc-convention-coronavirus-canceled

    94463
  9. Thread: Stocks

    by dougr
    Replies
    1,184
    Views
    92,038

    WLL filed Chapter 11 this morning. It's...

    WLL filed Chapter 11 this morning. It's informative to follow these bankruptcy stories to see how the stock and bonds make out.

    Details: The Plan will provide for, among other things: (1)...
  10. Thread: Stocks

    by dougr
    Replies
    1,184
    Views
    92,038

    It becomes a matter of time/life vs trading. For...

    It becomes a matter of time/life vs trading. For a stretch of about 2 years starting about 6 or 7 years ago, I traded options from open to close daily. I used the Ichimoku Cloud as my main technical...
  11. Thread: Stocks

    by dougr
    Replies
    1,184
    Views
    92,038

    https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-03-30/Russian-cent...

    https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-03-30/Russian-central-bank-halts-gold-purchases.html

    With the Russian central bank suspending gold buys, we might see a softening of gold prices. They were a decent...
  12. Thread: 2020

    by dougr
    Replies
    1,890
    Views
    73,616

    Perfect for Cuomo to deflect and say he's...

    Perfect for Cuomo to deflect and say he's concentrating on the task at hand. I'm more convinced that Biden is toast. Obama will be putting pressure on him to step aside.

    I'll add the following...
  13. Thread: Stocks

    by dougr
    Replies
    1,184
    Views
    92,038

    Quoted to catch your attention. On the heels...

    Quoted to catch your attention.

    On the heels of our "what bonds tell in a distressed stock" discussion, look at Whiting Petroleum, ticker WLL.

    94360

    From $8 to 80 cents. Dang, it lost 90% of...
  14. Thread: 2020

    by dougr
    Replies
    1,890
    Views
    73,616

    Good article on that:...

    Good article on that: https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/03/will-biden-live-up-to-his-own-principles/
  15. Thread: 2020

    by dougr
    Replies
    1,890
    Views
    73,616

    Ahem. And so begins the push out of Biden....

    Ahem. And so begins the push out of Biden. They've been trying to get him out, he's been resisting understandably, they said "we'll destroy you," he said fat chance, and here's the fat.

    Admittedly...
  16. Thread: Stocks

    by dougr
    Replies
    1,184
    Views
    92,038

    Yes, GDX, the miner's ETF. GDXJ is the junior...

    Yes, GDX, the miner's ETF. GDXJ is the junior miners. Certainly the way to go for safety, if you can't dig and understand an individual company. Although the beasts, like Newmont and Barrick, are so...
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    Romney had some unusually harsh words for Dems...

    Romney had some unusually harsh words for Dems about their reversal.

    94332
  18. Thread: Stocks

    by dougr
    Replies
    1,184
    Views
    92,038

    twotimer, never noticed you were in Denver. As am...

    twotimer, never noticed you were in Denver. As am I (western 'burbs). We should meet up at some point.
  19. Thread: Coronavirus

    by dougr
    Replies
    2,373
    Views
    45,595

    ^ Incredible. The scum that is that party. Pray...

    ^ Incredible. The scum that is that party. Pray to God Repubs and Trump have the courage to fight. Those provisions are so awful.
  20. Thread: Stocks

    by dougr
    Replies
    1,184
    Views
    92,038

    https://www.bloombergquint.com/markets/mortgage-bo...

    https://www.bloombergquint.com/markets/mortgage-bond-sales-flood-market-amid-pleas-for-help-from-u-s

    The bond collapse might by closer to 75 mins. News like that ^ this weekend must have spooked...
  21. Thread: Stocks

    by dougr
    Replies
    1,184
    Views
    92,038

    We are getting closer to the point of a bond...

    We are getting closer to the point of a bond collapse. It's either 75 minutes from now or 75 years, to narrow down the time frame. Yields on bonds are low. Stocks are volatile. Money is looking to go...
  22. Thread: Coronavirus

    by dougr
    Replies
    2,373
    Views
    45,595

    I'm just gonna sign off Bogley now. Farewell all.

    I'm just gonna sign off Bogley now. Farewell all.
  23. Thread: Coronavirus

    by dougr
    Replies
    2,373
    Views
    45,595

    ^ I'm all for women removing their bras to save...

    ^ I'm all for women removing their bras to save their lives. We need more pandemics like this. Except, let's get some, well, better models to show us how it's done next time?
  24. Thread: Stocks

    by dougr
    Replies
    1,184
    Views
    92,038

    I think we're getting closer to maximum hysteria....

    I think we're getting closer to maximum hysteria. The media has really ramped it up this weekend. That doesn't mean the market bottom is near, that's still going to be a function of how much economic...
  25. Thread: Stocks

    by dougr
    Replies
    1,184
    Views
    92,038

    It comes down to what the bond market is saying...

    It comes down to what the bond market is saying about a company's prospects for survival. Normally bond market info says nothing, other than beating along to the drum of interest rates in general....
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