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Food for thought.

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95229

Keeping on the dumb money Robinhood trading platform, there was a Chinese social media ticker that skyrocketed recently. Same scenario as NKLA. Watching Robinhood names and making momentum trades...

And fearing the purposeful destructive Dem gov reaction to a potential second wave. We know with certainty we have a 5th column in this country that will stop at nothing to bring Trump down.

The crow eating is too early. We are in the warm months, virus activity is lower naturally. We also have Dems and Wall St looking to sabotage the market. Wall St how? Through a run up in valuations...

That's better than 360 degrees from me. I take heart in what you're saying and pray to God you're right and I'm dead a%% wrong. Plain and simple.

Then on top of all that, you have the election risk. Which I count as 80%+ odds a Dem sweep. Then the return of the high corp taxes, open borders, and regulation up the a%%. That still isn't priced...

Couple charts to emphasize that bear market rallies have been substantial and lengthy before. Nothing unusual so far. The only thing that'll turn around this fate is a vax or cure. Which I don't see...

I don't think it will be a crash to 15-18k. I expect a low volatility bear market for quite some time to 15-18k, a la Japan after their go-go years. Earnings are just terrible. The market is grossly...

Site with many contract prices. https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/block/49 It appears these are all the nearest month. Some are delayed.

WTI monthly contract prices:...

For me, the next month or so will dictate if I get entirely out of equities.

The cascading risks are these:

-deep recession lasts into 2021
-Dems sweep
-increased tax and regulatory burden...

WLL filed Chapter 11 this morning. It's informative to follow these bankruptcy stories to see how the stock and bonds make out.

Details: The Plan will provide for, among other things: (1)...

It becomes a matter of time/life vs trading. For a stretch of about 2 years starting about 6 or 7 years ago, I traded options from open to close daily. I used the Ichimoku Cloud as my main technical...

https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-03-30/Russian-central-bank-halts-gold-purchases.html

With the Russian central bank suspending gold buys, we might see a softening of gold prices. They were a decent...

Quoted to catch your attention.

On the heels of our "what bonds tell in a distressed stock" discussion, look at Whiting Petroleum, ticker WLL.

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From $8 to 80 cents. Dang, it lost 90% of...

Yes, GDX, the miner's ETF. GDXJ is the junior miners. Certainly the way to go for safety, if you can't dig and understand an individual company. Although the beasts, like Newmont and Barrick, are so...

twotimer, never noticed you were in Denver. As am I (western 'burbs). We should meet up at some point.

https://www.bloombergquint.com/markets/mortgage-bond-sales-flood-market-amid-pleas-for-help-from-u-s

The bond collapse might by closer to 75 mins. News like that ^ this weekend must have spooked...

We are getting closer to the point of a bond collapse. It's either 75 minutes from now or 75 years, to narrow down the time frame. Yields on bonds are low. Stocks are volatile. Money is looking to go...

I think we're getting closer to maximum hysteria. The media has really ramped it up this weekend. That doesn't mean the market bottom is near, that's still going to be a function of how much economic...

It comes down to what the bond market is saying about a company's prospects for survival. Normally bond market info says nothing, other than beating along to the drum of interest rates in general....

Check the bond market for their take on distressed names. Once you start seeing yields in the teens, strong warning. Anything in the 30s or above, the bond market is pricing in bk and I would never...

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We're about 113% at the moment. Knock 5% off GDP this year maybe and we'd be at 120%. Still overvalued, unless you apply the old Graham Dodd interest rates to market multiple math.
...

Futures off 4%. Sub-19k tomorrow it appears.

I'm buying more DOW and new entry in HD tomorrow.

Huge late rally, 1000 points. You can't make this stuff up. Sub-19k to almost 20k. No telling what's in store.

Check TVIX, a levered VIX fund. Up 2000% on all this in the last few weeks.