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Oh, I'm sorry...I didn't realize that I'm dealing with a friggin' genius. With a healthy streak of dickwad in him, too boot.Quote:
Originally Posted by Iceaxe
So tell me, Mr. Wizard of the Wise...what's your method of accurate polling? Cold calling?...maybe you missed the memo from '16?
Don't take it out on me that your ignorant with regards to statics and how a Democrat Republic works... talk about shooting the messenger...
Anyhoo... I already explained this to you.... what happens in the first 45 states doesn't matter, as we ready know where their electoral votes are going. All that matters is how the five major swing states vote.
So you see taking a poll at major league game outside of those swing states is a complete waste of time, and taking a poll at specific event inside those states will contaminate your results.
If you think your approach will yield accurate and realistic results go for it as there is a lot of money to be made in polling. Think of it as the ability to predict the roulette wheel.
OK...two things. First, I'm not taking anything "out" on you. You get shitty with me, I get shitty with you right back...that's how it works. In all this time you've never spoken to me like that...don't point those guns at me again. This is all just for funsies, Iceaxe. Lighten up.Quote:
Originally Posted by Iceaxe
Secondly...of course I know that the election is decided in the swing states, that goes without saying. My point was that these "polls" seem to be quite f*%cked up and that maybe hitting sporting events all over the country would yield results that reflect how "most" people feel...not necessarily the outcome of the election.
I am no statistic guy but I think cold calling may also be flawed. I don't answer cold calls. Most people I know don't answer unknown phone numbers. So what demographic answers cold calls? As for baseball, I am not much of a fan, but I did watch Bryce Harper in his Phillies home opener last year. The Phillies averaged 32K attendance at home games.
The polls were not messed up... at least the data was correct for the most part. How they chose to analyze and interpret the data was the error.Quote:
Originally Posted by Byron
Professor Allen Lichtman used the same data and correctly predicted the 2016 election.... just as he has correctly predicted every election for the past 34 years.
I think the big problem with most predictions in 2016 is those looking at the numbers let their personal bias sway what they were actually seeing. MSM wanted Hillary so bad they just didn't see how she could lose, especially when she led in the popular vote and Trump would have to break through the northern blue wall.
^^^Holstein humanQuote:
Originally Posted by BasinCruiser
The stupid that flows out of Biden's mouth never ceases to amaze me...
Biden says police should be trained to ‘shoot 'em in the leg instead of the heart’
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/bid...-em-in-the-leg
Climb-Utah.com
I was working on an interior all this week and the couple there has the TV on all day, going from one news station to the other. I was working in the kitchen while they were watching it in the next room and heard the entirety of his rambling monologue today at that church with 12 people in it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Iceaxe
And when I say rambling, I mean it. The man is lost in space...he was mumbling, stumbling and stuttering and shot off random stuff. When he started, I thought..."Maybe he's going to read a prepared speech?" But instead, it was just him spewing train of thought. It was bizarre.
For those who would say "Trump's no better"...I'd say Trump is far more coherent, even on a bad day. Google it, hear it for yourself.
...https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/202...e2053f46c5.jpg
Climb-Utah.com
If the Democrats have some double super secret plan to run someone other than Biden for President, as some have suggested, they better hurry up and execute it as Biden is only about one week away from securing the DNC nomination.
Biden closes in on clinching Democratic presidential nomination
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/bid...ial-nomination
That double secret plan requires him to win the nom. But at this point, it's unnecessary to replace him.Quote:
Originally Posted by Iceaxe
The CCP virus has and will continue to give him cover to hide his dementia and hide his agenda. Mail in voting assures a Dem sweep. And the race riots, with swamp Repubs abandoning Trump now, kill any remaining swing voter chance he had.
Wipeout of 2008 size. Possibly 1964 if things continue to spiral down.
You also said the stock market would plummet below the March lows by now...Quote:
Originally Posted by dougrz
I think your crystal ball is cracked.
Dougrz...you're a quite reasonable guy and I like you, but man you're full on glass half empty sometimes.Quote:
Originally Posted by dougrz
Yes, what you say in considerable...but personally, when I'm feeling like "Oh shit!" I try to flip the whole thing around and look at it from a different angle. Consider this:
Biden is nothing. He offers nothing. His mind is gone. Regardless of whoever he chooses as his VP, the election boils down to this...
____Trump
____???Somebody else, anybody else???
That's it, Trump vs. a question mark. A mystery person, or mystery people. How about that dog catcher in Melbourne Florida that so many in town seem to like? Anybody but Trump, even if no one knows who the hell it is.
America isn't going to elect a question mark for President. I'm sure you saw a map of the US with the counties after the '16 election? Red, red, red all over the place. The Dems didn't see that coming...because all those people were nice and quiet and were intent on voting for the guy who talked the talk and looked like he was gonna walk it, too. And he did.
?????...no way.
I hear what you guys are saying. I just think I have a pulse on society and I run with it. Look, Trump won in an absolute landslide... given the 1980 electorate. That was a real study. He won 60-40. And would again, I agree. It's just demographics and continued pumping of brainwashed kids.
None of you would claim Trump could win CA. You know that electorate. I'm strictly making a demographics argument along those lines, and the power of pop culture and media over them, not over us.
Remember, I predicted Biden to romp in SC and be revived, weeks before it happened. I took unlimited scorn here. (All in fun, not a poke)Quote:
Originally Posted by rockgremlin
Last time I was shocked by a result was 2012. I actually thought Romney would win on the day of. 2016 I thought we'd lose until the "reopening" of the email case and Carlos Danger's laptop involvement. I felt a palpable change in dynamics from it, and put a lot of money into biotech stocks as a result. Made a killing on that.
As for this market, I'm still very cautious, yes. Part of it is political risk, yes.
The problem with this reasoning is that pop culture doesn't vote.Quote:
Originally Posted by dougrz
Brainwashed kids can talk and tweet all they want, but in the end that's all it is... just talk. Pop culture and brainwashed kids never back up all that talk at the polls.
^^^This^^^
Not to mention the black vote is staying home again this year just as they did in 2016.
Yep...Bernie was supposed to take it walking away. It was all bullshit...nobody showed up because "massive support" was a lie.Quote:
Originally Posted by rockgremlin
I think what I don't understand in you all is this: we have leftist barbarians smashing down the civilization and they have won. There is no push back, no organized good that is fighting to any degree, no political class standing for our founding principles. And I'm talking about the social and cultural war that has defeated us to this point. These riots are just the next phase on top of the cultural violence that has occured. They own it all: education, legal system, political system, pop culture, media, sport, corporations, all of it. There's nothing left to fight for, other than our own and fam's personal daily safety.
And your contention is there are enough of us remaining to somehow squeak an election out. You might be right, but at best it would be as razor thin as 2016, where 20k or 30k key votes would have changed the result. Considering if these facts existed in 1980 or earlier, decency would win 80-20, 90-10, or 98-2. When the country once didn't have millions taught to hate it. We need to come to realize the damage the left has caused and the depth of this reality.
Next phase: overwhelming brainwashing about systemic racism. Every NFL player kneeling, owners kneeling with them, the crowds cheering. Baseballers kneeling. NBAers kneeling. Confrontations with white people demanding they kneel and apologize for their white privilege. I see this in my lost young cousins, who are chanting this stuff. The brainwashing and national purge will only grow in strength, since they are learning violence and threats work. Of course they work, they're getting what they want from it. And based on Rove now advising Trump to go on an outreach tour, Trump will likely add to the lie by giving in to a degree.
Plan accordingly in our lives. That's all.
I'm still convinced Biden isn't their guy on the ballot. I'll gladly smile and take the criticism if I'm wrong November 3rd though.Quote:
Originally Posted by Iceaxe
I know the rules of the DNC, but this assumes they'll follow rules. They can think of any excuse to wiggle out of regulations, and their base would blindly (and enthusiastically) agree with them.
We are in an unprecedented time. They are no longer interested in hiding their hypocrisy.
2 ways for it to happen. 1, he declines. 2, they change the rules and do some new vote. I had expected option 1.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sombeech
But I now think it isn't necessary. He's probably better than a more radical offering now. An old white male who's sold as non-radical would arguably have more power to impose a radical agenda than an AOC-type. Gov. Northam of VA being the perfect example. Before, they needed a more radical type to enthuse their base to vote. Not necessary anymore, and especially not necessary if mail in voting is the standard.
But we've never seen a year like this. The country is collapsing and anything can happen.
Quote:
Originally Posted by dougrz
Man, ya'll talk as if the Apocalypse is just around the corner. Don't forget that this country has seen much darker days than the present. Back in the early 1970's the civil unrest was so bad that the National Guard was shooting unarmed college students in the streets. The events that led up to the Kent State shootings and the nationwide rioting in days that followed would easily dwarf the nonsense that is transpiring today.
I guess if you were an avid news-watcher who believed everything you saw reported on CNN then yeah I can see where there might be serious cause to worry. But never forget that the polls and the news that reports on those polls are designed to create an emotional response, and they are rarely accurate. Look at the 2016 election as a prime example.
^^^THIS^^^
Not to mention the 1860's when we actually had a civil war with actual bullets and cannons and stuff....
I remember the civil unrest in the late 1960's and it was worse then this.
Draining the swamp ain't easy... a lot of nasty ol' gator's live their.
But the liberal's made a huge mistake when they ditched Covid-19 for race riots.... If they had of managed to continue to tank the economy they might have won in November... but race riots have never worked.
YMMV
And a picture to keep your attention....
https://heavy.com/wp-content/uploads...trip=all&w=780
Your entire post was excellent and pretty much sums up just how dire things appear to be...but I highlighted this section because I firmly believe that we DO have push back...that pushback was silent and came out in November of '16 when it seemed like all hope was lost. We're not making much noise...just going about our lives, shaking our heads at those that are freaking out waving their hands around.Quote:
Originally Posted by dougr
In 1968 it seemed like EVERYBODY was pissed off, right? So the President takes so much heat that the simply quits...he was a Democrat. He injected the social welfare state with steroids and they still rejected him. They rioted, looted, killed and started their own homegrown terrorist orgs...Black Panthers, Weather Underground, etc...
The Conservatives? They were pretty quiet, doing their thing and guess who won the next election? That's right...the VERY LAST person that all those making the noise would have wanted.
Seems overwhelming, doesn't it? The liberal sissy, hypersensitive, spoiled rotten, miserable nonsense they're spewing from the radio, TV and those nifty little things so many carry around in their pockets...but I've determined that when the rubber hits the road, their behavior is detrimental. Just like it was in 1968.
I saw a bumper sticker today, it said: "Frodo failed...the Republicans have the ring". IMO, the person who owns that car is a fool that has it completely backwards. We're not making much noise Doug...and it hardly means we're weak or being overpowered.
Bread and Circuses, my friend. Like toilet paper...disposable until whatever they come up with next week.
^^^THIS^^^
While liberals are crying loudly the conservatives are busy actually doing something. Conservatives with Trump leading the parade are busy stacking the Federal courts with judges that are Constitutionalists that will change the course of this nation to conservative for the next 40 years.
More then 1 out of every 4 circuit court judges are a Trump appointee, and that number should be 1 out of every 3 before the end of the year.
Trump is on a record setting pace....
https://news.ballotpedia.org/2020/05...ts-fourth-year.
:flag:
Biden just signed on to the extreme left's plan to defund the police.
That should guarentee him middle America and the swing votes needed to secure the presidency.
/End Sarcasm
Ahhhh...the election is a forgone conclusion. All this nonsense is their attempt to win down ballot elections and set up chaos for the next 4 and half years.
So it looks like our economy is going to ramp right back up just fine. Once this Floyd stuff gets old, I wonder what's next?
Maybe the Dems will convince the Iranians to send some suicidal maniacs against our Navy. See if they can get a war going.
So exactly how much longer do we have to wait to find out who the DNC candidate will be? Better make it happen soon because Sleepy Joe doesn't appear to be declining the nomination...Quote:
Originally Posted by dougrz
Biden clinches Democratic presidential nomination with latest delegate haul
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/bid...tic-nomination
We don't. I posted above it isn't necessary anymore and won't happen now. It's Biden.Quote:
Originally Posted by Iceaxe
I was out in the hinterlands a few days. I'm not seeing any links about this.Quote:
Originally Posted by Iceaxe
I think we're all here students of history here and quite knowledgeable. Symptom or cause of our politics, either way.Quote:
Originally Posted by Byron
68 was different, I'm contending. The show of force was by a radical left street and campus movement. The public and the economic powers to be rejected it. Dems were embarrassed at their convention by the street action.
Now we see a large segment of society supporting this. This isn't just college radicals and blacks. This is college radicals as the leaders of a much larger movement, that captures a good chunk of middle class whites. But more important, the economic forces arraying are staggering. To see the word "oppression" tied to the USA by basically every major corporation of note in their press releases? Do you all realize the power of denigrating the country to that degree in the minds of its people? From here on, you think the brainwashing and intolerance to any position other than admitting this country is fundamentally racist and oppressive was bad before?
It cannot be understated the treason we're seeing and the threat to the absolute core of the country. It will cease to exist in 10 years or so. Flag change, anthem change to start, and property redistribution coming soon after.
Call me nuts, but we all form an opinion based on our reads of the masses. I've lived in l.a., AZ, and CO. I talk to dozens, young and old. Interact with D and Rs, old friends and new. What worries me more than the other side is our side. Though with us, they can't articulate why and put together a forceful counterargument to the provable lie that we're now seeing sweep public discourse.
I'm hoping the defund police movement catches steam and happens. That's the only path for most to see what the real goal is.
^^^I lived through the 60's unrest, it's not just history to me... and I pretty much disagree with everything you wrote.
It's not middle America marching in the streets today, it's the vocal left. You never hear a peep out of middle America and they only voice their thoughts on election day without ever saying a word.
Quote:
Originally Posted by dougrz
1: No we don't. A vast majority of Americans are watching it on TV or going about their business in other ways, not marching in the streets. Neither you nor I have the ability to determine what is swirling around in their heads. Some think what they saw happen to that guy was awful, others think good riddance, one less criminal to contend with.
2: Yes it is...just like '68. Take a look right now at those marching in Washington...blacks, kids, Bernie Bros and liberals. There are millions of them from coast to coast. They're frustrated. Not only that, they get to hang out with people that are like minded...who doesn't like "favorable" crowds?
3:No it doesn't...if anything, they're behavior is undermining their "cause"...just like '68. They want "change" but can't define what it is, aside from some harebrained nonsensical ideas and replace the Prez with a mystery God.
And lastly...if law enforcement is "abolished", society would degrade to the wild west, everyman for himself, large scale theft, looting and killing, vigilante justice and a complete loss of safety. Americans are not going to shitcan everything they've worked so hard for because some low life got jacked. The liberals have been puking all over themselves for four straight years, and lately they're spewing big chunks...this is NOT their moment.
With all due respect, Dougrz, I think you've got your eyeballs spinning like pinwheels with all this. Hypersensitive people making lots of noise...if it were a black officer with his knee on that guy's neck we would have likely never heard about it.
With this I agree. And why I think it needs to happen. For a clear lesson in the folly of leftist policy.Quote:
Originally Posted by Byron
Regardless of our differences on this, know that I've grown to really like you guys and the spirited optimism to my pessimism. I would want no one else in my fox hole. Just that I believe we're closer to needing that hole, both metaphorically and physically.
In 2016, it was manufactured race riots, “pussy hat” marches, celebrity virtue-signaling, ANTIFA clashes — and the Democrats still lost. Why are they executing the exact same playbook, 4 years later? Do they really think American voters are too stupid to see through this chaos?