Kurt,
Scott asked what our gut feeling was telling us. So I answered what my gut tells me.
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Originally Posted by
accadacca
The big discussion now is are we going to be ready to ease restrictions and get back to work by Easter? Everybody is bitching and moaning about it and I think it’s too far out to decide at this point, but what does your gut tell you? Do you have any data to back this up? Maybe portions of the country will open up?
Why does my gut tell me this, because I work in the lab and I know what the testing capacity is and until we can test people and only isolate those that currently have the infection and do contact tracing to isolate people they come in contact with we are best to keep this social distancing going. When will the labs be up to speed with testing? Realistically, probably not until late April. Why, you ask? These tests that are newly developed have to be manufactured, shipped, and validated before we can start implementing testing on anyone and everyone. The test my hospital is bringing in house is not available to order until March 31st. The newest test Abbott announced yesterday won’t be available until Mid April. And then it only does us good if we can keep ordering and receiving the tests. Trust me I wish it would go faster than this and by letting these companies develop these tests without jumping through all the normal hoops was huge! And it gives us the best chance to start getting people back to work. But it doesn’t happen overnight and that is what I base my GUT feeling on.
Last weekend when I was at work we ran out of our Biofire respiratory panels. We had ordered double what we normally order and that order usually lasts several weeks. So it is not far fetched to worry that once we start in house testing for COVID we might have periods where the available tests run out before we can get more. This goes for all the tests available in the country.
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I don't know but is it possible certain areas of the Country go online before others?
Absolutely they could go back online before other areas, but not until adequate testing is in place.
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Or do the "studies" just say Easter is not a possibility?
I don’t have any studies to show you just the pleas of healthcare workers currently overwhelmed. I have already posted 3. Two from doctors and one from and ICU nurse.
Yes I see we scored the highest out of 195 countries, but what exactly is this score used for Kurt? It is a metric designed to identify GAPS in a country's ability to respond to a global threat. I was unaware of this index until this morning so I had to go educate myself because like you I don’t rely on network news. I do research.
For others who are unfamiliar with the GHS index I suggest the video below, it does a great job of explaining what this index is.
[VIDEO]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MXSxOfIfvig [/VIDEO]
Interesting that around 6 minutes into the video Ernie Moniz says
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No country high, middle, low income is fully prepared, in fact most countries have major gaps across all 6 categories in the index
At around 8 minutes in he says
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The health system category was the lowest scoring category in the index, with an average of 26.2% out of 100. And I also note, in a more parochial note for healthcare access the United States was well below average
And right now it is in this arena that our pants are caught down Kurt. This index is great. It is a metric thoroughly vetted to show governments around the world where they lack preparedness for a pandemic or other similar type of disaster. Like I said, I hope after this is all said and done, I hope we learn gobs from what was done right and what we could have done better.
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I haven't read whatever article you refer to, I did read an abundance of NY's Ventilator Allocation guidelines.
In my reply to you I posted that article so you could go read it. But Here you are again.
https://nypost.com/2020/03/19/we-didnt-have-to-have-ventilator-shortage-leaders-chose-not-to-prep-for-pandemic/
You keep throwing this quote up again and again Kurt. And I am not exactly sure what your purpose is in doing this.
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From report
The state did not plan to increase its stockpile because it anticipated that in the event of a severe crisis, there would be shortage of trained staff to operate them and demand would outweigh any emergency stockpile. The report said the state had to balance the likely ventilator shortage with the need for adequate funding for current and ongoing health care expenses.
I didn’t dispute this I posted exactly what it said on page 31 instead of summarized quote
From page 31
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The State’s current approach to stockpiling a limited number of ventilators balances the need to prepare for a potential pandemic against the need to maintain adequate funding for current and ongoing health care expenses. Furthermore, severe staffing shortages are anticipated, and purchasing additional ventilators beyond a threshold will not save additional lives, because there will not be a sufficient number of trained staff to operate them. In the event of an overwhelming burden on the health care system, New York will not have sufficient ventilators to meet critical care needs despite its emergency stockpile. If the most severe forecast becomes a reality, New York State and the rest of the country will need to allocate ventilators and other scarce resources.
What I asked is where did the report ever say NY should buy 15000 ventilators?
Quote from Trump
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“This says, ‘New York Governor Cuomo rejected buying recommended 16,000 ventilators in 2015 … for a pandemic,'” Trump said, reading from a printout of the article. “‘…established death panels and lotteries instead.’ So, he had a chance to buy in 2015, 16,000 ventilators at a very low price and he turned it down. I’m not blaming him or anything else, but he shouldn’t be talking about us.”
I maintain that Trump's info on the “death panels” and quote for cheap ventilators comes from Mccaughey’s article. Unless you can prove otherwise.. Don’t give me your line of crap about there is only one person that will ever know that.
This is from the article and it is what Trump paraphrased
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In 2015, that task force came up with rules that will be imposed when ventilators run short. *Patients assigned a red code will have highest access, and other *patients will be assigned green, yellow or blue (the worst), *depending on a “triage officer’s” decision.
In truth, a death officer. Let’s not sugar-coat it. It won’t be up to your own doctor.
In 2015, the state could have purchased the additional 16,000 needed ventilators for $36,000 apiece, or a total of $576 million. It’s a lot of money, but in hindsight, spending half a percent of the budget to prepare for pandemic was the right thing to do.
As for Cuomo and his need for ventilators…. Apparently there are 4000 in some wearhouse in NJ. If that is the truth Cuomo was definitely out of line.
As for 5 policies I don’t agree with.
The Wall
The way he dealt with families at the border
And pretty much any of his policies that have to do with the environment.
You and I will never agree on Trump. I am not even going to try and find common ground there.