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I'm in the same boat as you. I'm not an engineer, but I make that crap you design bolt together. If people stop building with steel, I'm in trouble.Quote:
Originally Posted by Iceaxe
Here's what's on the boiler at the moment. Coming soon to a neighborhood near you.
Attachment 89186
^^^ Is that Ogden's next SuperWalmart?
Nope. It's for Stadler. They are going to be making light rail train cars in Salt Lake.Quote:
Originally Posted by rockgremlin
Trumps right about one thing, if you can't produce steel you don't have a country.
Everyone agrees other countries are dumping steel in the US and it needs to stop before it puts our steel suppliers out of business. The question is really are blanket tariffs the best answer.
I'm also thinking this tariff is a two pronged approach as Trump has told Canada and Mexico they will be exempt if they come up with a new NAFTA deal. So Trump is leveraging the tariff to get the stalled NAFTA talks moving forward.
Very true, and the US steel industry has suffered greatly over the last 20 years or so due to foreign steel makers undercutting them on prices. It's not nearly as healthy an industry as it once was. It's nice to see someone that can make a difference actually doing something about it.
That being said, I think that the tariffs he's talking about are nothing more than a bargaining point to start from. I don't think that they are going to be nearly as severe as everyone says right now. He's just trying to get the other side of the table to sweat a bit so they feel like they have to give something to us so that we can give back to them. Only time will tell how it all shakes out.
Remind me to never take investing advise from you. Stocks basically held even despite Cohn's exit. My financial portfolio actually went up a massive $10 today.Quote:
Originally Posted by DirkHammergate
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/201...79c105a5ad.jpg
Weren't we just talking about this yesterday?
US steel maker to reopen idled steel plant and bring back 500 jobs due to Trump tariffs.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/comp...7gv?li=BBnbfcN
Quote:
Originally Posted by devo_stevo
This is also good for coal because you can't make steel without met coal. For a while now, the U.S. has been exporting met coal to Brazil, Brazil would make steel with it and then send the steel back to the U.S. Well, if the steel is made here at home then then the met coal also stays here in the U.S. and contributes to the domestic production of steel.
U.S. made steel with U.S. mined coal.
Jobs will be created if the tarrifs go through and plants will reopen and jobs will be created. But there is a cost of that. Our steel prices are higher which in turn will make everything that the consumer buys that has steel in it more expensive.
No different than increasing the minimum wage, in the long run it just increases inflation and nobody is any better off.
I'm all about keeping in the US and do all I can to stay that way, but there are consquences for doing so
^^^Yes and No^^^Quote:
Originally Posted by 2065toyota
The big problem is other countries, namely China, are dumping steel on the US, which means they are selling steel for less then it costs to produce. They can do this because the government subsidies the Chinese steel industry.
We are forced to slap the tariff on all imported steel because a third party will just import the steel and then sell it into the US.
If the US steel industry goes broke then you are at the total mercy of steel producing nations.
So in the short term steel prices will rise and consumer prices will rise, in the long term steel prices should flat line at a fair price.
So the real question is are you willing to suffer a short term price increase for long term national security?
Also.... don't fall for the Chicken Little act, the cost of the actual steel is really a very small part of the total product price. Engineering, fabrication, manufacturing, packaging, distribution, among other items all add to the cost. Yes the price of items will go up but not be big numbers as the 25% tariff will be absorbed throughout the system.
And as I stated before, I believe the 2nd part of this is for leverage in the NAFTA negotiations.
If the Chinese government is indeed subsidizing the industry to drive the price down and it is that important of a commodity, is there anything that prevents them from subsidiszing it with a greater amount to compensate for the tarrifs?Quote:
Originally Posted by Iceaxe
If their government is ran like ours, does it really matter how much money they lose or where would it all end at?
If the Chinese increase the steel subsides we can increase the tariff, or slap a tariff on ALL imports from China, which is called a trade war.Quote:
Originally Posted by 2065toyota
In the long run no country can beat the US in a trade war, but the collateral damage from a trade war could be nothing to huge for all involved.
The US is betting the Chinese will realize it's just easier to sale steel at a fair price, which is the simple solution.
All stock index's are up... the market didn't even blink over Cohn's exit, just business as usual.
I wonder what it'll do tomorrow now that we're playing footsie with NK.
I spent most of today and will be again tomorrow sending out revised estimates for all the upcoming and scheduled work we have notifiying my customers about the 25% percent increase in steel costs that just happened
I anticipate losing 25% of the current contracts we have. Not that they can go anywhere else and get it cheaper, just the fact that I'm the bearer of bad news.
Our probably best saving grace is were are the largest ornamental iron company in Utah south of Provo.
The supplies are even being put on quotas which are going to weed out a lot of small business that don't buy enough volume and will not be able to purchase steel.
The consumers are the ones who are going to be paying the price for the tarriffs because of the increased costs which in turn leads to higher home prices which in turn helps lead to more inflation.
Hopefully its just a temporary tactic the get the NAFTA reorganized with better terms
I'm afraid you're right. I've mentioned in other threads, I'm in the steel industry. I'm a self employed steel detailer. If people stop building with steel, I'm in trouble. On the bright side, I've got no debt on the business as of April 1 in a couple of weeks here and some money in the bank as well as the fact that I'm good enough at it that fabricators keep coming to me more and more. Hopefully that continues.Quote:
Originally Posted by 2065toyota
If you do steel detailing we should get together. We started in structural steel a year or so ago along with our ornamental side and have about some large projects coming up.Quote:
Originally Posted by devo_stevo
Sounds like a plan. I'm happy to help. I've been in business for myself for the last 3 years, but I've been doing this since 1996.Quote:
Originally Posted by 2065toyota
If you need anything, hit me up: steve@valleystructural.com
On the flip side... those of us on the concrete side will benefit. In the commercial construction world there is always a debate between steel frame and concrete frame structures... often comes down to cost. Bar costs will escalate but it a small fraction by tonage compared to structural steel. (steel frame will always be the better schedule bet).
Also true. I don't see construction stopping or really even slowing down too much because of this, but there will be some projects that they'll change the design to save some cash.Quote:
Originally Posted by double moo
Ouch!!!
Still up 14% over the past year but watching the market over the past couple of days has been painful.
Yup. I've had to look away and tell myself I've still got more than 20 years before I'm retiring and when it goes down, it's just a good time to buy stuff when it's on sale. I can't imagine that after going up over 20% last year, we won't get a year of negatives. This is historically what happens. Just sucks when it does.Quote:
Originally Posted by Iceaxe
So I never understood how Facebook could be valued more than General Motors or Ford. Those two companies have billions in hard assets and sell millions of cars to their customers....
And now I know every dumbass using Facebook was their asset and they were selling your privacy to their actual customers.
It all finally makes sense to me....
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Many many employed snowflakes that have an over inflated self worth... Considering your people are your greatest assets - and you have more value than Ford and GM combined.
China blinks first.... Trump scores another win.
China's Xi promises to cut auto import tariff, warns against ‘Cold War’ mentality
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2018/04...mentality.html
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Bull or bear market?
If a bull , it needs to take out 24,800.
If a bear, take out just below 23,800
If the bears win, I would guess a minimum 40% reduction.
and down we go...
probably a 200 point drop to open, coming.
where from there?
for anyone interested, the chart comparisons from 2018 to 2007 are very similar. we got about a 50% crash back then.
I'm still bullish the market but reshaping my portfolio to not be severely damaged in the possibility of a crash.
Things are quite different now, vs. 2007, economically.
This bull market is 9years old, it's time to be careful.
Quote:
Originally Posted by oldno7
Back in 2007 - 2008 there was a legitimate potential threat to the economy in the form of the housing bubble and all of the unjustified overlending that banks were engaged in. Years of big banks extending credit and offering loans to almost anyone regardless of their ability to repay finally caught up with them. But those were activities that were transparent -- it took place right out in the open, and we ought to have seen the writing on the wall sooner. In the end, turning a blind eye to dubious policies in the name of greed torpedoed the economy. Banks and credit lending institutions learned valuable lessons from that catastrophic time, and some banks just withered and died.
But fast forward to today...what event could potentially wreck the currently high-rolling economy?
^^^THIS^^^
I see no reason the current economy will not keep rolling along for another 5 or 6 years. YMMV
1) Rising interest rates
2) Inflation
3) War --(Israel vs. Iran?)
4) Panic and fear.
5) Irrational exuberance/euphoria
I'm not saying a crash is inevitable, merely stating the possibility is real.
I use timing in my trading, May 17th and 18th come up as important dates.
I trade no matter what, most can't make the daily/inter daily adjustments like I do.
I will be selling out of my oil positions earl to mid next week.
If prices keep rising into next week, I might abandon all positions for a little bit.
Rising interest has a tendancy to draw people into bonds, money for bonds, comes from stocks, in general.
The national debt will struggle with a rise in interest rates.
How about a CRASH in crypto markets?
That could get the ball rolling, after that it's all emotion.
many reasons to be alert, especially if you are a boomer and time for a recovery is not on your side.
If the market were to somehow take a multi-thousand point dive I will certainly buy more stock that I did in early '09...back then I was too cautious and If I would have gone apeshit I'd be a multi-millionaire many times over right now. And that's just will the handful of stocks that I did buy.
I certainly love how my IRA is looking, but I set up my retirement with rental properties.
I agree with Iceaxe...I think it'll just get better overall. The United States is swingin' the biggest dick in the world and we finally have a leader who knows how to use it.
,,,,
Depending on where those rentals are, I bet you are pretty happy right now. I can't believe the price of rent these days along the Wasatch Front, but I guess when you have vacancy rates flirting with 2%, you can charge what you want. Even with all of the inventory that has come on the last 24 months and all of the inventory ready to come on in the next 24 months we are still seeing a housing shortage in Utah, which is seriously pushing up the real estate values. A few years ago you could find commercial and multifamily investments at a 7 cap all day long. Good luck with that now. Hard enough to find a 5 cap property these days. Couple that with increasing rates, and I am not sure jumping into long term real estate holds is a great deal. Want to make a ton of money though? Find a decent deal on raw land and develop it into .5 acre residential lots.Quote:
Originally Posted by twotimer
diversify
real estate certainly does that.
rentals would seem a solid investment in current markets.
Hahaha.... good luck with that.Quote:
Originally Posted by uintafly
That's just like saying it's easy to make money in the stock market, just buy low and sell high.
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