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Margin in 2016 was 113k of 9.1 mil, 1.2% point margin.
A 250k win out of 9 to 10 million cast this year would be around a 2.5% point margin. Conventional wisdom has been, if he wins FL by 2 or more he wins.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/202...214aa5622b.jpg
I think my bulb went on a few days after the debate oil comment. That and the laptop suppression.Quote:
Originally Posted by Iceaxe
Suddenly the R arguments, "47 years and done nothing," and "radical leftist," which didn't jive, both were validated.
Being amongst normal people in AZ helped as well. Having never lived in an even remotely R place in my life.
When was my first positive post in this thread? I'll have to look back. Probably 10 days ago?
FL gains keep coming.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/202...ddadd76367.jpg
Look on the bright side... you can return to your Democratic stronghold a conquering God.Quote:
Originally Posted by dougrz
Images of Ceasars return to Rome come to my mind.
:-)
I wonder what we are going to talk about tomorrow? I'm a little worried about this site.
:lol8:
Of all the states, that DraftKings poll showed CO as the only one where a majority believe Biden was going to win.Quote:
Originally Posted by Iceaxe
Which means this is the most deluded state. I've been living with these people for 4.5 years and it rubbed off.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scott Card
With any luck it'll be a lot of gloating and snowflake-melting memes. :lol8:
I like the snowflake melting meme's idea...
:-)
https://youtu.be/N2bXAvlvYdI
Schweikart's live feed numbers show. @rockgremlin
It's hard to watch. No matter how good the FL numbers look, that was only returned ballots. Now the count.
I liken this to going to a party. You either win a door prize or get executed. Difficult to stomach.
Quote:
Originally Posted by dougrz
Gonna be a while I'm guessing. Settle in...it might be a long night.
NY Times has FL 93% chance for Trump. That's step 1.
Not difficult to stomach at all...just make sure you ALWAYS win the door prize.Quote:
Originally Posted by dougrz
Trumps got Florida in the bag. :2thumbs:
Quote:
Originally Posted by BasinCruiser
:2thumbs::2thumbs::2thumbs:
It's a shame Texas flipped blue though...:eek2:
NC is critical. With 87% in, Biden up 1.2%. If he wins that, all the early good news from FL was not as indicative as we expected.
Would be hard to overcome that for Trump. I'm beginning to have doubts.
I'm watching zero news or projections. Just data flow.
No...Karl Rove just said it'll go to Trump...a whole bunch of red counties that haven't been tallied yet will make it up.Quote:
Originally Posted by rockgremlin
Trump is pulling ahead in Tx.Quote:
Originally Posted by rockgremlin
Attachment 95645
CNN having to retract their original projection of Virginia for Biden. :lol8:
The betting line just flipped to 65% in Trumps favor....
Quote:
Originally Posted by Iceaxe
....and the Chinese Yuan just plummeted....
A Trump reelection = bad news for Jhina.
I'm watching the results on Fox and without really saying it, they've called the election to Trump. It seems all the blue votes have already been tallied and everything coming in now is red.
Trump just won Utah. Isn't it amazing that right next door you've got a bunch of boneheads?
But....but......but......the suburban woman.....the senior vote goes with Biden.........but....butttttt.......:cry1::cry1::c ry1:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AlDQf26exLw&t=1s
Really disheartened how bad AZ looks. Should have worked PA.
My current math is Trump will have 310 electrol votes, that's a plus 40.
If I'm right Trump can still lose a couple of swing/close states and still win.
Next up is will the GOP still control the Senate.
The House will remain Democrat, which is no surprise.
Hey why has Virginia been called for Biden when the #'s clearly say differently?
Attachment 95646
You are giving Trump PA, MI, WI, MN, and NV. Zero guarantee of even 1 of those.Quote:
Originally Posted by Iceaxe
MN and NV doubtful. PA tough to get with the 9 day non-postmarked ruling. MI and WI must be won and he gets 275.
Biggest surprise is the Florida strong result not being indicative. If you'd said Trump would win FL by 3%+, most everyone would say a Trump romp.
Sorry to say my calls all this year about the power of leftist insanity infecting people was more true than not. My optimism of the past two weeks was unfounded.
Better check your math because I have MN and NV going to Biden.Quote:
Originally Posted by dougrz
And I could have miss added something... but it doesn't matter... it looks like Trump will take WI and MI and with both those it's over.
Not sure. Thought you did this:https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/202...5de0ae842f.jpgQuote:
Originally Posted by Iceaxe
Quote:
Originally Posted by Iceaxe
NV is not a Republican guarantee.
At this point, we NEED MI, WI, and NC. It would be nice if Virginia and Arizona would be walked back. I'm not sure why they would call Arizona even though Maricopa county hasn't been counted yet. :ne_nau:
We could lose Pennsylvania and still win with 272. But it's gonna be very close.
^ Confirming this. Our only path is to get MI and WI.
VA, AZ, NV very slim.
MI and WI I would say less than 50/50 we get both.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/202...96f28de22f.jpg
If Trump got MI + WI AND PA it's game over, Trump wins. But they're allowing shenanigans to happen with the mail in ballot BS, so PA isn't a guarantee.
NC has a multi day window for ballots after, till the 12th. PA similar. GA still could flip D. PA has legendary cheating. WI is tightening.
We need a miraculous save here.
Collins in Maine looks like she may hold. So the senate is probably safe. At least that.
Jesus. NY Times changing their call on GA to Biden.
Bad result.
Quote:
Originally Posted by dougrz
The senate is still intact + it looks like there are several House seats that have flipped Republican with this election.
Even if PA has legendary cheating, a 750,000 point deficit is almost insurmountable.
The states I worry the most about is GA and WI. NC is pretty much done.
Odds are Biden.
Holding the senate gives us a reprieve of 2 years. Dems will be favored to pick up 3 in 2022 and take control.
Lot of intervening time, but that's the lay now anyway.
750 is surmountable. The big metro precincts are huge D vote mines. But worse, MI counts vote by mail after doing in person first. So the lead is false.Quote:
Originally Posted by rockgremlin
The loss of the single elector in Nebraska is bad, as that eliminated the 269-269 tie we could have won in the House.