Stocks

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Originally Posted by Brian in SLC

I'm convinced that the folks who create immense amounts of wealth for themselves in the markets all have...information...that the rest of us aren't privy to. Lets just say everyone I know with a Harvard or Wharton MBA does pretty well... Its an insiders club.

That doesn't mean the table scraps aren't worth pickin' through.

Here's to fat returns to the next 2-3 years!

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Yes and no, I agree information is king, but the info can come wearing many different hats.

For example their is very little in the US mining and energy sectors that I don't know about loooong before the average Joe. I know who's planing to expand or invest, I know who's going to be drilling and where, I know who is on top of high grade ore, I know who and wear the elecrticity is going to be coming from by who and where substations are being built. Who is adding to their refining capabilities, who is build new crushers and mill buildings, who has pipelines on the board, yada, yada. I know all this months before it is announced to the public.

How about Brexit?

any market reaction to politics?

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Originally Posted by oldno7

How about Brexit?

any market reaction to politics?

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You mean the record highs?

https://www.theguardian.com/business...x-brexit-gains

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Originally Posted by Brian in SLC

You mean the record highs?

https://www.theguardian.com/business...x-brexit-gains

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I mean the fall and rise, both were created by politics,,Correct?

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Originally Posted by Brian in SLC

And, given the memo was a bit of a big nothing burger.

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What?!?

How can that be possible? Chuck and Nancy were plastered all over #FakeNews telling anyone who would listen that release of the memo would destroy the Republic as we know it.

The only thing the memo did was verify everything Sean Hannity, among others, had been saying for the past 6 months, which is also why I think the memo had almost zero effect of the stock market. Anyone watching the news already knew what was in it, their was no hidden easter egg in the memo.

:popcorn:

And while I have your attention on Brexit---

I guess you are aware a US president tried to sway the vote of a foreign country?

You're willfully being ignorant and willfully dodging your false statement " I'm not sure the politics of the country can really rock the financial boat."



President Obama’s warning to those championing Britain’s exit from the EU was stark: Leave, he said, and the “U.K. is going to be in the back of the queue” on trade deals with the U.S.

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2016/04/obamas-brexit-plea/479469/

I've given you examples of how US politics, greatly affected markets.

care to reverse your false statement yet, or should we just believe you cause......


YOUR QUOTE:
I'm not sure the politics of the country can really rock the financial boat.

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Originally Posted by oldno7

And---the short list is of those events that had a negative effect, you can google political events that had a positive one.

I'll even help you with something recently---Trump tax reform...

I'm guessing you were on the boat of "Trump will crash the market"

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No, I didn't think Trump would crash the market. Some folks close to me (ha ha) did. I think they were hoping for any indication that he was the wrong choice for the country. And...they still are.

Also, I think we're talking about a couple of different ideas. Politics, in general, the arguing, posturing, propaganda...versus actual events.

So... Politics: "the activities associated with the governance of a country or other area, especially the debate or conflict among individuals or parties having or hoping to achieve power."

My point is that the debate and/or conflict doesn't drive the market. Events certainly can. Political discourse preceding or following events...not so much.

Which is why I think "the memo", and its conversational impact, had little to nothing to do with the market. It was partisan politics is all. Not a significant event. Now, if an event resulted from "the memo"...maybe, but, since it again was a big nothing burger, there isn't one on the horizon.

The Trump tax reform could have a fairly significant impact. The changing of the tax code is an event. Driven by politics? Yeah, ok. One thing can lead to another. Remains to be seen, but, my bet is corporate America will adapt and make money from this change to taxes.

Which is why my hope that this little micro bubble pop correction is short term, and, that the long term will show gain rather than a continued drop.

Anyhow...I think we're disagreeing on two different ideas. Events certainly can move markets. The political discussion might drive those events. But the politics of the situation didn't...the event did.

Brexit will be interesting to watch...that situation still hasn't been fully realized. Interesting chatting with a member of parliament over the xmas holiday about Brexit and the PM (who they know personally). That and Brit ex-pats moving back to the UK. Quite a stew.

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Originally Posted by oldno7

I've given you examples of how US politics, greatly affected markets.

care to reverse your false statement yet, or should we just believe you cause......


YOUR QUOTE:
I'm not sure the politics of the country can really rock the financial boat.

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You gave me examples of how events changed the market.

Sure, all of your Russian inspired memes can influence people who vote (see 2016 election results on how Americans were duped by the Russians into voting for Trump and against crooked Hillary). People are influenced by politics. The market is influenced by events.

Do politics drive events? Sure.

Did you big Trump supporters check with facebook to see if you followed Russian propaganda? I did. Big fat "zero". Let's hear your results.

https://www.recode.net/2017/12/22/16...-trump-clinton

So the memo wasn't a political event?:roflol::roflol:

You liberals are so great at dodging your own statements, it's hilarious!

Lets try again.
IS THIS ACCURATE?

YOUR QUOTE:
I'm not sure the politics of the country can really rock the financial boat.

Yes or NO should suffice....

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I guess you are aware a US president tried to sway the vote of a foreign country?

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It's not just "a" president. Every president in the last 100+ years has done that. It was especially prevalent during the Cold War in the 1940's through early 1990's, but was going on before that and continues to go on to the present day.

That's the main reason it's silly to accuse Russia of meddling in the US election. The US does that sort of thing all the time. The US has even meddled in Russia's elections several times since the 1990's. Then apparently we're supposed to act all shocked and outraged when they do the exact same thing to us.

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Originally Posted by Scott P

It's not just "a" president. Every president in the last 100+ years has done that. It was especially prevalent during the Cold War in the 1940's through early 1990's, but was going on before that and continues to go on to the present day.

That's the main reason it's silly to accuse Russia of meddling in the US election. The US does that sort of thing all the time. The US has even meddled in Russia's elections several times since the 1990's. Then apparently we're supposed to act all shocked and outraged when they do the exact same thing to us.

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please forgive me----I'll try not to do this again

But--I agree with you 100%:2thumbs:

Simpleton's have already forgot about obamas attempt to unseat Benjamin Netanyahu.

we've kinda melded 2 discussions here, Stocks/Memo, they are intertwined.

Monday looks to start off with a large drop.

Ummm...WTF?!

Dow is down 1841 points in just two trading days!! :eek2:


Attachment 88860

Ugh.

We'll see what the rest of the week brings...

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Originally Posted by Brian in SLC

Ugh.

We'll see what the rest of the week brings...

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Thanks Obama!

I bought a lot of stock, this morning.

It was all Aurora Cannabis(ACBFF)

I have no complaints.

If you haven't been expecting this bump you don't know stocks. The market has lost 7.8%, that's not even enough to officially be classified as a correction. A correction is a 10% loss.

Anyhoo... guess right on the bottom, and you'll bank a truck load of coin.

Dow lost around 900 points in the overnight, gained back about 700 of those.(as of 3:30 am)

good chance today is the reversal day.

and now dropping again, will be a crazy opening.

I'm predicting another modest pullback today. That 10% correction is long overdue. It's easy to panic when you see these types of numbers. But in reality this is just a normal corrective measure. That bull has gotta catch his breath sometime!

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Originally Posted by rockgremlin

I'm predicting another modest pullback today. That 10% correction is long overdue. It's easy to panic when you see these types of numbers. But in reality this is just a normal corrective measure. That bull has gotta catch his breath sometime!

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All very true.

And is the reason I trade my own accounts, I don't feel comfortable losing 10-20% of wealth in a week, knowing it will come back in 3 months.(or longer)

The DOW futures have been down 934 points in the overnight.

currently off around 300.

It's just a matter of when the bulls feel they have gotten enough of a discount to buy again.

When/if it happens, my charts will show it clearly.(Reversal/buy signal)

Capitulation is what you seek.

I bought Quantum Cobalt awhile ago for .93 share, it has gone down to the 20's and currently at .39

Percentage wise, I'm off a bunch but I only bought 1000 share so I'm willing to see what Springtime brings to these mines.

Who here has a 529? Comments and suggestions?

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Originally Posted by Scott P

Who here has a 529? Comments and suggestions?

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I looked into a 529 for my kids college savings (20 years ago) and instead went with a custodial account as it gave me much more freedom. A custodial account is just like a regular portfolio that you manage until the child is 21 at which time it becomes theirs. Taxes are really low because they are paid at the college students rate when they cash out and you are not bound by any 529 restrictions.

This worked out particularly well for my oldest as she ended up with a 4 year full ride academic scholarship and we could use the money elsewhere to help her.

YMMV

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Originally Posted by Iceaxe

I looked into a 529 for my kids college savings (20 years ago) and instead went with a custodial account as it gave me much more freedom. A custodial account is just like a regular portfolio that you manage until the child is 21 at which time it becomes theirs. Taxes are really low because they are paid at the college students rate when they cash out and you are not bound by any 529 restrictions.

This worked out particularly well for my oldest as she ended up with a 4 year full ride academic scholarship and we could use the money elsewhere to help her.

YMMV

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How many years old was the custodial account until it was needed? Did you start that account as soon as your kids were born, or sometime afterward? Roughly what is the annual rate of return?

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Originally Posted by rockgremlin

How many years old was the custodial account until it was needed? Did you start that account as soon as your kids were born, or sometime afterward? Roughly what is the annual rate of return?

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I started the accounts soon after the kids were born. They are nothing more then your typical stock trading account except for the fact the custodian (me) makes the trades and manages the stocks and not the child. When the kid turns 21 they become the custodian of their account, which makes it just like any other stock portfolio. I had the accounts set up through Charles Schwab. My kids accounts averaged about 10% a year over 20 years, which is about the market average. Certainly a better return than a savings account or CD, but you have to suffer the rollercoaster markets.

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Originally Posted by oldno7

I bought a lot of stock, this morning.

It was all Aurora Cannabis(ACBFF)

I have no complaints.

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Up over 20% in less than 2 days

dows up 500+

I think Tuesday's rally is a dead cat bounce. The market has to correct sometime, and usually choppy and dramatic swings in both directions are a prelude to a pullback.

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Originally Posted by rockgremlin

I think Tuesday's rally is a dead cat bounce. The market has to correct sometime, and usually choppy and dramatic swings in both directions are a prelude to a pullback.

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Certainly a possibility but heres what I see:

Market bottoms or swing bottoms are usually accompanied by a volume spike.
Without the spike, the market or swing bottom is usuall temporary and will not hold BUT you get a bounce(perhaps a dead cat, though usually a bear market term)
Avg. volume prior to yesterday had been about 460million shares.
Yesterday the volume spiked to 714million, pretty much a capitulation.
Today you had folks that had been holding cash since the Trump election, waiting for a buy in point.
Volume for today was 823million.
All in all, a good basis for a swing bottom, in a bull market.

Also--earning season is now, companies are all receiving cash benefits from the corporate tax cuts.
It has challenged many because they usually don't have glut of un suspected money.
I think it is a strong 4th quarter reporting, overall.

So, even though I currently have very limited exposure to the Dow/Nas./S&P, I think we will see new highs in the not to distant future.

Then I'll start looking for that volume spike on top.

I could be wrong--Rock could be right--The market will tell.

The trick is to make profit from your plan and plan to profit.

Heres what I'm talking about with companies reporting 4th quarter, this is a copy of Olin's 4th quarter report.

Olin Corporation (NYSE: OLN) announced financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2017.
The fourth quarter 2017 reported net income was $489.3 million, or $2.89 per diluted share, which included a tax benefit of $437.9 million from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (2017 Tax Act). The fourth quarter 2016 reported net income was $17.5 million, or $0.10 per diluted share. The full year 2017 reported net income was $549.5 million, or $3.26 per diluted share, which included a tax benefit of $437.9 million from the 2017 Tax Act. The full year 2016 reported net loss was $3.9 million, or $0.02 per diluted share.

Having that much extra money--somehow might prove problematic but I don't know how.

Certainly some inflation concerns as well as inevitable rate increases(glad my house is paid for)

Interesting and related read

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/06/feds...inflation.html

I would venture a guess, we are at the stage marked excess.

New money comes in, bull are in charge everything is going good.

then it's not....

may take quite awhile to play out, maybe top around next fall??

It's all speculation till someone gets their eye poked out.

Looking like Rock is Right!!:2thumbs:

I'm off just over $400 today in:

Lithium
Emerging markets
Oil & gas

MJ is still holding and that is where I have a bunch of shares

The Dow Jones industrial average*plunged 1,033*points Thursday, its second-worst point drop in history, extending its losses in the recent selloff to more than 10% and*putting it officially into correction territory for the first time in since early 2016.