Keyhole flash flood deaths

"Back on topic, these canyoneers last chance to view the Southern skies was at the saddle, prior to dropping in."

In following and reading everything about this tragedy this has been my biggest question. At the saddle the group would have a very good, not perfect, 360 view. Correct? ( I have done Key several times but not in 5 yrs so memory not so good) But also a last chance looking south. At what had to be a very immense fast moving storm, yes?
What did they see? Is there a time stamp on the picture of them at the bottom from the saddle all geared up? I know they were 7, and not fast, but still how could they miss the incoming storm from the saddle? 7 newbies on 1 rope is going to take a lonngggg time.
Did they miss it, or misjudge it? Or were they that slow as to not see a storm at the saddle, then get caught 1-2 hrs later?

Questions I know we may never be able to answer, and I don't want to speculate. But it makes me really think - because I too am very curious having been in this situation several times, at the Hogs, Leps, and Ticaboo. We had to check the weather report, sky, drainage, everything and then make a call. Never got caught, or even close. Was that us making a good call, or luck?
Something like this just makes you rethink everything

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Originally Posted by kidjan

I'm not trying to "miss the obvious" (it's not like I start my mornings out trying to be oblivious); I'm trying to understand things. I'm open to the possibility that I'm wrong.

My only point is a precipitation layer doesn't necessarily indicate the direction in which something is moving. If such a thing were true, there would be a permanent cloud front sitting over the coastal range of Oregon, but it's just west -> east moving cloud fronts depositing rain as they strike the coastal range.

It doesn't matter much. I think most likely explanation is monsoonal.

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Correct, a static picture does not indicate the direction of motion. One could be mistaken to take the wind direction at ground level to represent the atmospheric flow direction.

But the video includes time-lapse, which CLEARLY indicated motion to the north.

And just so you know, the flow down here has been monsoonal since about June 1st, with a couple weeks of non-monsoonal. No clouds in the sky today, but usually the Wundermap shows flow to the north.

Tom

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Originally Posted by flatiron

"Back on topic, these canyoneers last chance to view the Southern skies was at the saddle, prior to dropping in."

In following and reading everything about this tragedy this has been my biggest question. At the saddle the group would have a very good, not perfect, 360 view. Correct? ( I have done Key several times but not in 5 yrs so memory not so good) But also a last chance looking south. At what had to be a very immense fast moving storm, yes?
What did they see? Is there a time stamp on the picture of them at the bottom from the saddle all geared up? I know they were 7, and not fast, but still how could they miss the incoming storm from the saddle? 7 newbies on 1 rope is going to take a lonngggg time.

Did they miss it, or misjudge it? Or were they that slow as to not see a storm at the saddle, then get caught 1-2 hrs later?

Questions I know we may never be able to answer, and I don't want to speculate. But it makes me really think - because I too am very curious having been in this situation several times, at the Hogs, Leps, and Ticaboo. We had to check the weather report, sky, drainage, everything and then make a call. Never got caught, or even close. Was that us making a good call, or luck?

Something like this just makes you rethink everything

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Information is not useful without experience to place it in context.

I wasn't there, but my impression is that the storm was not "massive". It was concentrated and made a direct hit on the Keyhole drainage.

It's good to be lucky. And it's good to be good. It's even better to be both lucky AND good.

Tom

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Originally Posted by ratagonia

I wasn't there, but my impression is that the storm was not "massive". It was concentrated and made a direct hit on the Keyhole drainage.

It's good to be lucky. And it's good to be good. It's even better to be both lucky AND good.

Tom

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.....and I think that sums it up pretty closely.....

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Originally Posted by Glenn

David Rankin did a very good analysis of the rain event that hit Hildale/Keyhole rain event. Jump to 9:50 to see the Keyhole discussion.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TOUgIvQKcoI

After watching other YouTube videos of flash events of Behunin and Echo/Hidden Canyons, I can imagine this storm creating a huge fall of water plunging down into Keyhole. Horrific.

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Cool video! Nicely done. :2thumbs:

The more I learn about the situation, the more it makes me think they got caught in the wrong place at the wrong time.

• Were they warned about possible flash floods? Yes
• Did they take a chance, whether they knew it or not? Yes
• Did they get caught in a record-breaking weather event? Yes

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Originally Posted by accadacca

The more I learn about the situation, the more it makes me think they got caught in the wrong place at the wrong time.

• Were they warned about possible flash floods? Yes
• Did they take a chance, whether they knew it or not? Yes
• Did they get caught in a record-breaking weather event? Yes

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Your first bullet point is the one that hits home with me. Given that it was 40% chance of rain, probable flash flooding, and predicted afternoon storms when they pulled the permit...and then 50% when they called back later....they should have gone for a nice hike somewhere safe and dull. I've wimped out on way less than that.

The "afternoon showers" element should probably be stressed more by the park. Those afternoon weather events can be stupid serious. Rocky Mountain National Park comes to mind--when they warn about afternoon lightning storms and you're dumb enough to get caught in one....you won't make that mistake twice, assuming you're still alive. Bring your brown trousers.

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Originally Posted by kidjan

The "afternoon showers" element should probably be stressed more by the park. Those afternoon weather events can be stupid serious. Rocky Mountain National Park comes to mind--when they warn about afternoon lightning storms and you're dumb enough to get caught in one....you won't make that mistake twice, assuming you're still alive. Bring your brown trousers.

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I agree with that but I in no way blame the park. Tom disagreed with my comment on a 'massive storm'. What I meant to say was 'massive cell'. We get storm cells all the time during monsoon in Colorado, very hit or miss. Extreme rain here, nothing 10 miles away. Learning weather patterns and understanding the monsoon sequence in Utah and Colorado is extremely important when hiking/climbing mountains or canyons. Until I moved out here 25 yrs ago I had no idea, and initially made several mistakes concerning weather. I talked with my brother about this right after the storm. 25 years our 1st summer in Colo we hiked Long's Peak together, a tough 15 mile 14'r - and we were woefully unprepared. No idea what we were really getting into. Young, athletic, in shape and just assumed all was well. No weather issues luckily but I got altitude sickness, and did not even know what it was.
So yes I can see people from 'out of state' not understanding. There is a learning curve.

The whole 'experienced hiker' thing is pretty relative. Would any experienced hiker from NY or Mich understand the monsoon?
And then also flash floods? And then their lack of experience in rappelling which translates into very slow progress?
Throw in a direct hit by a storm cell, bad luck, and you have trouble. In this case a horrible tragedy.

I am heading out tomorrow to Utah for several days of canyons - and this is definitely is on my mind. That group seemed like people who knew and loved being outside and exploring, loved adventure. How many pictures of ourselves or others have we seen just as they looked in their last pic - smiling, excited, raring to enjoy this new sport?
My heart and thoughts go out to them.

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Originally Posted by flatiron

So yes I can see people from 'out of state' not understanding. There is a learning curve.The whole 'experienced hiker' thing is pretty relative. Would any experienced hiker from NY or Mich understand the monsoon?
And then also flash floods?
Throw in a direct hit by a storm cell, bad luck, and you have trouble. In this case a horrible tragedy.My heart and thoughts go out to them.

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Heavy rain was already falling late Wednesday, and at least one person died in flash floods in Spartanburg, officials said.
Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe on Wednesday declared a state of emergency, and North Carolina Gov. Pat McCrory ordered state agencies to prepare for floods.

So Bo, are you saying that it rains hard and floods in places other than the slot canyons of Utah? Incredible! :haha:

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Originally Posted by Scott Card

So Bo, are you saying that it rains hard and floods in places other than the slot canyons of Utah? Incredible! :haha:

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I know your post was "tongue in cheek", but to reply in a more serious vein.....it definitely does rain here in the Pacific North West.....and we do get floods that can cause a lot of damage, sometimes deaths if people try to cross a creek in flood. What we don't get are flash floods.....because the ground is fairly soft it absorbs a lot of the runoff and the watercourse levels rise more slowly. We just don't have anything that compares to the slickrock of Utah.

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Originally Posted by flatiron

I agree with that but I in no way blame the park.

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I'm definitely not blaming the park, although I think they should be more blunt in monsoon season: afternoon storm warning = no joke. Reconsider your trip.

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Until I moved out here 25 yrs ago I had no idea, and initially made several mistakes concerning weather.

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Exactly: if you don't live in an area that has monsoon (or late afternoon) weather patterns, it's not something you understand. Which is how you end up running for your life in the worst thunderstorm imaginable in Rocky Mountain National Park when some afternoon crap broadsides you; you don't even know it's something you should be concerned with. That experience was bad enough that to this day I have anxiety around lightning.

Update: Zion National Park Investigates September Flash Flood Deaths

http://www.stgeorgeutah.com/news/arc.../#.VhPuafn2BQI

SALT LAKE CITY (AP) — Zion National Park officials are retracing what led up to the deaths of seven people in a flooded canyon last month before a panel convenes to assess what can be done to keep a growing number of visitors safe when spectacular natural settings turn perilous.

http://www.stgeorgeutah.com/wp-conte...n-20150916.jpg

FILE – In this Sept. 16, 2015 file photo, search and rescue team members place a litter near a net for helicopter transport after finding a body in Pine Creek, in Zion National Park, near Springdale, Utah. Zion National Park officials are retracing what led up to the deaths of seven people in a flooded canyonon Sept. 15 before a panel assesses what can be done to keep a growing number of visitors safe when spectacular natural settings turn perilous. | AP Photo/Rick Bowmer; St. George News

Investigators are talking to family members and examining the communications the group made in the hours before they canyon filled with fast-moving water from a powerful storm on Sept. 14, said Zion National Park Superintendent Jeff Bradybaugh.

The investigation could lead to changes in the permit system that controls who enters the park’s 21 narrow slot canyons, whose unique geological quirks also make them deadly. The system was designed to protect the wilderness, not necessarily people, by limiting the number of explorers, Bradybaugh said. Rangers don’t evaluate people’s skills or close canyons due to weather until flooding has already begun. By then, it can already be too late for people inside.

The panel, which could include outside experts as well as parks officials, will likely convene by late November. It comes at a park where the number of visitors has grown 65 percent over the last 5 years but stagnant budgets have kept staffing levels largely unchanged, Bradybaugh said.

Here’s a look at what authorities will be considering after the flooding deaths:

Weather warnings
Parks officials could consider restricting access to canyons more often during the rainy season, or figuring out whether they could warn hikers in the backcountry.

Flash flooding was considered “probable” when the group collected their permit on Sept. 14, one step below “expected,” the most serious warning on a four-step rating system.

That warning was given four times during the month of September, with three of those warnings clustered on the days before, during and after the deaths, according to parks officials. Still, a total of three groups got permits for that canyon on Sept. 14, and at least one completed the route safely.

The canyons were closed after flooding started, but too late to warn the group from California and Nevada because they were already in the backcountry.

http://www.stgeorgeutah.com/wp-conte...ole-Canyon.jpg

This 2013 photo provided by the National Park Service shows canyoneering in Keyhole Canyon, in Zion National Park, near Springdale, Utah. Zion National Park officials are retracing what led up to the deaths of seven people in a flooded canyon on Sept. 14, 2015, before a panel assesses what can be done to keep a growing number of visitors safe when spectacular natural settings turn perilous. | National Park Service via AP, St. George News

Skill assessment
Though Zion rangers ask detailed questions before giving a permit, they don’t bar people from canyons based on skill level, something that could be re-examined, Bradybaugh said.

Prospective climbers of Alaska’s Denali, for example, undergo a detailed examination of skills and a required 60-day waiting period, though climbing the mountain typically takes weeks and is a much bigger undertaking than the two-hour excursion the group had planned at Zion.

Though more-skilled climbers can reach exit points and move through canyons more quickly, people already inside a slot canyon when a flash flood hits are often overwhelmed by water within moments — regardless of skill.

Increased education
At Utah’s Arches National Park, getting a permit to hike through a labyrinth of red-rock formations called Fiery Furnace requires everyone in the group to pick up the permit in person, hear warnings from park rangers and watch an educational video.

At Zion, only one member of the group has to pick up the permit. Requiring everyone who’s going into the canyon to be there means more people hear weather warnings directly and a video could drive home potential dangers of rain that typically hits in the afternoon, hours after most people pick up their permits.

There is a volume question: Zion issued more than 9,200 canyoneering permits over the last year, according to park records.

Thanks for the post. Willful disobedience coming.

I'm generally opposed to any regulations or changes in procedures that would put more responsibility on the NPS to ensure park visitor safety. One, because poor funding and low staff levels make this difficult. Two, because individuals should be accountable, not the NPS.

However, I'm not opposed to requiring all permit participants (i.e., those for canyoneering or rock climbing or backcountry) to be present for the permit pickup and for receiving direct skill assessment, safety reminders, and Leave No Trace exposure.

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Originally Posted by Glenn

I'm generally opposed to any regulations or changes in procedures that would put more responsibility on the NPS to ensure park visitor safety. One, because poor funding and low staff levels make this difficult. Two, because individuals should be accountable, not the NPS.

However, I'm not opposed to requiring all permit participants (i.e., those for canyoneering or rock climbing or backcountry) to be present for the permit pickup and for receiving direct skill assessment, safety reminders, and Leave No Trace exposure.

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This is actually a HUGE change, and would make canyoneering in Zion extremely difficult.

Skill assessment? There is no skill assessment. There is an opportunity for the Wilderness Desk staff to try to persuade the conspicuously totally incompetent to do something else- but it is hard to call this "skill assessment".

One result of this added layer of obstacle is that the general level of proficiency of canyoneers in Zion would decrease. Proficient canyoneers tend to be bureaucracy-averse, and tend to go elsewhere as the number of hoops increases.

Level of skill going down ==> more accidents.

Tom :moses:

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Originally Posted by ratagonia

This is actually a HUGE change, and would make canyoneering in Zion extremely difficult.

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Agreed. A lot of us show up the night before (after the desk closes) with express permits and get an early start the next morning. Requiring everyone to be present for the permit = picking up the permit the morning of the hike = later starts = more accidents.

If the park does skill assessments they become legally responsible next time there is an accident because of lack of skills. Not a road the NPS wants to head down

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Originally Posted by ratagonia

One result of this added layer of obstacle is that the general level of proficiency of canyoneers in Zion would decrease. Proficient canyoneers tend to be bureaucracy-averse, and tend to go elsewhere as the number of hoops increases.

Level of skill going down ==> more accidents.

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I don't follow that logic.

There's fewer people overall (all the pros bail), and there's probably fewer noobies as well because more of them are deterred by the additional bureaucracy. Fewer people ==> fewer accidents (possibly a higher *rate* of accidents though, like if they were looking at rates per 100k canyoneers or something, which would be the statistically honest way of looking at it)

In any event, I agree about the experienced people bailing. I've been canyoneering for a couple years now, and the permitting process/bureaucracy/crowds of Zion start to wear on you.

Hi all, some of you might remember me from the thread "Advice for a visiting Aussie - What region should I visit? (In UT/AZ)"
http://www.bogley.com/forum/showthre...sit-(In-UT-AZ)

This is flash flooding incident was particularly poignant to me as it occurred a week before I was due to go canyoning in Zion. I've always erred on the side of excess caution when it comes to potential thunderstorms but this event just hammered home the point.

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Originally Posted by Iceaxe

If the park does skill assessments they become legally responsible next time there is an accident because of lack of skills. Not a road the NPS wants to head down

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I agree this wholeheartedly. It is a dangerous path to head down. The permit system should be to limit numbers, NOT as a skill assessment. (Though they did ask me about equipment; wetsuits, helmets, ascenders, emergency dry clothing.)

I'm still banging my head against the wall regarding some local authority here which decided that official bolting would be a good idea as commercial guides use the area. :crazycobasa: What followed was expensive professionals being hired for bolting and testing. Metal plaques being fixed next to bolts to certify that they've been tested. http://www.vicclimb.org.au/file/id/309
(In contrast 99% of the canyoning/climbing areas in Australia are unregulated. We have as many stupid regulations as USA, but fortunately this doesn't normally extend to our National Parks and our wilderness.)


For those that are interested I had a great time in Pine Creek and Behunin. I would have preferred to do more it was limited due to only a week's window, forecast bad weather, closed roads, car issues and two partners who had minimal canyoning experience. I did get out and had a more leisurely time in Escalante away from the crowds. :2thumbs:

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Originally Posted by kidjan

I don't follow that logic.

There's fewer people overall (all the pros bail), and there's probably fewer noobies as well because more of them are deterred by the additional bureaucracy. Fewer people ==> fewer accidents (possibly a higher *rate* of accidents though, like if they were looking at rates per 100k canyoneers or something, which would be the statistically honest way of looking at it)

In any event, I agree about the experienced people bailing. I've been canyoneering for a couple years now, and the permitting process/bureaucracy/crowds of Zion start to wear on you.

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I'm not making a logical argument. This is an observation found by studies.

When areas come under more burdensome management, the regular users slide away to less burdensome places. The less experienced users do not know that the management program is burdensome, and come anyway.

Activity in Zion is limited (to a considerable extent) by the availability of permits of the popular canyons. So creating more burdens is unlikely to significantly decrease usage.

Tom