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For months now, the Dems have been very outspoken about how safe and secure and essential the USPS is and how it will be perfectly fine to do mail in voting. So, doors that mean they are OK with purchasing a gun through the mail, or do we still need in person with ID and background checks to prevent fraud? Asking for a friend
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SdsrhDkl_p8
Here's a nice little trip down memory lane. Hey Doug, you aught to check this out...not much has changed with the exception of the Dem candidate being completely worthless.
What has changed is a few million of us died, a few million more graduated from the brainwashing camps, and a few million more 3rd worlders from 5 to 9 years ago became naturalized. It's just math.Quote:
Originally Posted by Byron
Well gee...where have I heard this before? They said the same thing in '08, '12 and '16. Heck, I remember hearing that the liberal tidal wave was coming back in the 80s...when Clinton got elected they said "That's it, it's over. The country is gone". Obama's reelection was supposed to have solidified it, too.Quote:
Originally Posted by dougrz
You're also convinced that a majority of these new voters have pinwheels spinning in their eyes...I'm not. They're looking straight at the shit sammie the Dems have set on the table just like everyone else.
The immigration and demo shift manifests itself in 2 ways: move Dems further left or get status quo Dems more votes, with some ratio of. I think the ratio is close to 100/0 at this point, hence why the race is even marginally close anymore.Quote:
Originally Posted by Byron
Don't we have overwhelming evidence of a leftward shift? Is it fair to say if Dems were even remotely like they were in the 90s they'd romp to victory?
The current Dems, given a normal America of 1980s mindset, would get utterly thrashed. What has changed about the populace?
In 2016, so many people felt lied to, duped by the polls, 98% to 1 Hillary to Trump....
Just curious, what changed to make the polls more trustworthy this time?
I'm amazed at all of the idiots surrounding me who have forgotten about how wrong the polls misled them in 2016, but are right back on that bandwagon now.
I would think, if something scarred me, cut me so deeply that I lost hope for humanity, I would have remembered how I felt only a few years ago. I would assume I'd swear at the heavens to never trust a poll again.
Yet here we are again.
And do you remember how sweet the victory was? Stay tuned.
I don't look at polls and don't watch TV news at all. Not Fox, not anything. I read only.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sombeech
It's not polling, in my mind. It's understanding the level of info control, the left tech dominance skewing search results and censoring. The Soviets maintained dominance through info control as much as weapons.
Newt, a die hard in believing Trump would win in 16 and 20, said yesterday he now believes the level of mail-in cheating makes a good chance we either can't win or won't have a result in time for the electoral college to vote. Called it a serious problem.
We're not operating in a normal country. It's a cold civil war, where fully 1/2 will do anything, break any law, to stop us from voting, destroy ballots, purposely prevent the college from voting, etc.
And in opposite experience to @Byron, I have exactly zero family or friends who say they'll switch from D to R from 16 to 20. I see the youth in my family having gone left in response to the Trump years. Of the 8 less than 25/30 kids we have, 1 raging Trumper, 1 anarchist, 2 moron D, and 4 hard left near Marxists now. Ugly alignment for our future.
Add: and this result from all basically R parenting. But secular R. You Utahans see a religious component to parenting that helps perpetuate R values better than the mostly secular parenting in my fam. That is how powerful the ed system and pop culture have been in the past 25 years getting here, let alone how hyper powerful in the last 4 years. My thinking is time-averaged, not a snapshot of now.
2018's House vote saw an 8.6% D margin. Don't see why that doesn't roughly hold true this time.
It just makes him look like a Joe headed dildoQuote:
Originally Posted by oldno7
Add this: I was cautiously optimistic going into Nov 2018 we'd see R gains. I thought then, as you all do now, polls were wrong, '16 proved a new paradigm and undercounting of Trump support. I thought '16 represented a new alignment of a Trump R party, taking middle class D and a chunk of immigrants seeking the freedom of a roaring economy. No. It was the same D-R dynamic, magnified because of demographic trends, with the media and tech assault on Trump having been fully effective. That's when I realized Trump was likely doomed in '20.Quote:
Originally Posted by dougrz
We see the same 2 years later. No expansion of the Trump tent, more demo shift to D, virus blame on R, economy loss blame on R, soft on riots blame on D. That equals about the same result as 2018 in my mind.
Incredible reaction by Biden. Might help in MI and PA and WI, where a small movement of hunter's vote or suburban "I need some defense" vote will benefit Trump. But that vote is already for Trump. Squeezing a turnip.Quote:
Originally Posted by oldno7
The irony is, the shooter used a small handgun.
But given the open talk of eliminating the filibuster, an "AW" and mag ban is certainly coming.
In thinking about the '16 and '18 results, constructing a +/- from those base results might be useful. Mine would be as follows, with the last several elections data listed:
'08: D +10.6% House; D +7.2% Pres
'10: R +6.8 House
'12: D +1.2% House; D +3.9 Pres
'14: R +5.7 House
'16: R +1.1% House; D +2.1% Pres
'18: D +8.6% House
This year's modifiers:
Virus: +3 D
Economic loss: +3 D
Biden senility: +1 R
Dem riot support: +3 R
Immigration/demo shift: +1.5 D
Mail-in cheating: +1 D
NET: +4.5 D
Avg of the 2016/18 results gives D +3.2. Add the net +4.5 D modifiers and you get D +7.7 final.
Change the modifiers to fit your thinking and use actual national poll votes to come to a conclusion.
Should probably add two more mods, a "Trump hatred motivator: +5 D" and "Trump love motivator: +3 R" to add a net +2 D and get close to double digits final margin.
Which in my mind is the only question left: is the final margin single or double digit?
Vs a "shy Trump vote" or "the polls are wrong" hope. But list your modifier changes and make an argument, tell me why I'm wrong. We need a debate meltdown +4 R, Durham explosive indictments +3 R, and more riots +2 R to pull this out, imo.
Bullshit. Trump will have the election won by mail in votes alone before Halloween...Election Day will just be a formality with even more votes coming to him via those that went to the polls.Quote:
Originally Posted by dougrz
You see things one way, Doug...I sure as hell see them another.
The silent majority grows. Speaking of PA, look at the massive shift to the right.Quote:
Originally Posted by dougrz
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/202...c9c79378c2.jpg
Biden is extremely worried about losing his home state of Pennsylvania, which is why he is spending so much time campaigning there. It's extremely rare that a candidate has to spend time and money campaigning in his home state.
Yeah Doug has shown me the error of my ways...
The Trump train is about to get derailed. Biden will crush Trump this November.
All is lost. AOC will win in 2024, and a full blown Marxist regime will begin during her presidency.
Mark my words...
I thought this was a Babylon bee article but nope--he serious
Joe Biden Promises Fewer Fires, Floods, and Hurricanes if He Wins in November
“Wildfires are burning the suburbs in the West, floods are wiping out suburban neighborhoods in the Midwest, hurricanes are imperiling suburban life along our coast,” Biden said. “If we have four more years of Trump’s climate denial, how many suburbs will be burned from wildfires? How many suburban neighborhoods will have been flooded out? How many suburbs will have been blown away in superstorms?”
https://pjmedia.com/election/tyler-o-neil/2020/09/14/joe-biden-promises-fewer-fires-floods-and-hurricanes-if-he-wins-in-november-n930658?fbclid=IwAR1jpPZMcLx1rTs87YBNa0sPzvrCfraI_ lbTMZgh3VTHo5lBTAzcvbUV4Ig
This seems to go against the narrative.
Of course it's climate cha--er a global warming.
Wildfire Arsonists Create New Questions
(CU) - It's the wildfire season on the west coast. We know all-to-well the extent of damage wildfires can create due to the heavy forestry of the region. This year's season has a different feel and the under-reported arsonist activity throughout the region only perks up more ears. When considering the anarchists dominating the news in this same region, could any of these fires be man-made? Below is a documented review of the unusually active arson arrests and safety concerns throughout the Pacific Northwest.
https://www.clarksvillian.com/post/wildfire-arsonists-are-cause-for-concern
Well, he also promised to cure cancer. :roll:Quote:
Originally Posted by oldno7
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/joe...ncer-president
How can people take him seriously?
We all know what the Dems are trying to do and what their game plan is, despite their denials. But, eventually they reveal it, either by accident, or slowly and subtle. Kamala has let slip the truth that this is indeed the Harris/Biden campaign, not the Biden Harris campaign.
Attachment 95370
https://nypost.com/2020/09/15/kamala...Ht6g4iD7lo_q5c
^^^^and everyone but joe knows this.
Now that's a good data point.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sombeech
I do agree more burning if Trump wins. Arson fires from the leftist rioters will be epic.Quote:
Originally Posted by oldno7
Which, IMO...will undermine them even more.Quote:
Originally Posted by dougrz
So the anarchist, the BLM, the socialists, the progressives, etc...are sporting for a fight, right? They can't win against us, the conservatives that will shoot back. They'll never gain political power via the Conservative party. We are the toughest opponent they have...so who are they going to go after? Themselves.
That's right. The best thing that can happen is the Democrats get creamed in this upcoming election and their party is severely weakened. Biden will retire, Harris is nothing, Pelosi will be ousted, Bernie and Warren's "best" days are behind them...the party as it is will have to fight off these people that would be looking to fill the vacuum. A civil war in the Democrat Party...that's where that battle will be fought...that's the only place that they can ever hope to gain real political power and one way or another, a "new" Dem party will be created...like I've been saying for years now...the "reformation".
Unfortunately for the string pullers it isn't going to come about by choice, but by war. It remains to be seen if the more "moderate" elements of the Dem party survive. I think they'll try to buy the punks off and if that doesn't work they're in big trouble.
They pulled it off after the defeat in '72...but this time I think it's going to be a tall order hoping that the loudmouths blend into the background like they did then. They went too deep into the shithole and lost control.
And if your prognostication comes about, this will be an epic foreseeing of a future few else see.Quote:
Originally Posted by Byron
Man, it looks obvious to me. They are so fragmented...liberals are "mostly" peace loving people. Most are pacifists and try to live their lives hiding their eyes from bad things. But those that speak and act for them are careening out of control...COMPLETELY. The more aggressive aspects of their ideology is going to beat them down...well heck, it already has.Quote:
Originally Posted by dougrz
That's what I'm saying...they're easy meat and these punks ALWAYS go for the easy pickings first.
You see them as gaining power, I see them as losing it. This election is going to show us the lay of the land because the contrast is so severe. I was only 9 years old in '72 and although I remember seeing "McGovern" and "Peace" bumper stickers all over the place, I wasn't old enough to study or even "feel" the mood...but from what I've read it was quite a severe contrast in itself...and we all know how it turned out.