I now have shares in lithium/cobalt/mj and lots of other fine things:mrgreen:
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I now have shares in lithium/cobalt/mj and lots of other fine things:mrgreen:
'Melt-Up’ Rally Propels Dow Above 26000 as Fear Turns to Greed
Just another day in Trump World ® where the stock market smashes all previous records. This time it took only 8 days for the DJIA to soar through another 1,000 point milestone surpassing 26,000. Do people realize how much wealth was created in just over a weeks time? It's just crazy.
A serious question, (@Brian in SLC, @DIRK Hammergate) and others... do the liberal's still have all their cash in the bank awaiting the predicted market crash if Trump is elected President? Or have you at least jumped on this portion of the Trump Train?
https://www.wsj.com/articles/melt-up...eed-1516222815
https://mikemstahl.files.wordpress.c...pg?w=300&h=169
Quote:
Originally Posted by Iceaxe
I too wonder about this. For all of the bitching and whining and snowflake melting....is the Trump hating uber-left just storing all of their cash under the mattress? Or are they secretly relishing all of these stock market gains? Tough to argue against a guy that pads your pocketbook.
Since the day Trump was elected President the stock market has hit a new all time high 96 times.
#MAGA
And will continue to do so.Quote:
Originally Posted by Iceaxe
Any pullbacks that exceed 2-3% would cause a tiny bit of concern.
There is no 10-20% correction in the near future.
Current earnings are going very well, there has been no developing bubble, this rally is real.
IMO-dow 30,000 by end 2018
You could lose every penny you ever earned by listening to the above.
Buy bitcoin, its safe:haha:, I would guess it hits 3-4000 long before 20,000
Just checked my 401k and it's up 24.54% in the last 12 months. :2thumbs:
I have two 401k's...
22% and 16%.
Given that they're not all stock based...pretty good.
,.,.
22% is a reasonable return on a diversified retirement plan over the past year, this is about average and I'd be happy with that. 16% is not very good and I would not be happy. YMMV... Do you have any control over how these are invested?Quote:
Originally Posted by Brian in SLC
I do...but...Quote:
Originally Posted by Iceaxe
I'm kinda at the point where I don't want to survive another down turn.
The 16% is one that is much smaller and not as funded so to speak. So, smaller amount and tied to a bit more stock that gets matched but hasn't been as strong a performer (but still strong enough).
Blended fund. Not as perky. Much lower risk. Got some bonds in there...
I see S&P 500 fund got near 22% last year...
Hmmm. Easy to feed at the trough...
So...what's good? Large cap, mid cap, international? Who has that crystal ball?
Some amazing numbers from the last year...to be sure...cha ching!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brian in SLC
It's a tough call, the problem is 2 years at 25% is better than 5 years at 10%, so belly up to the trough while the eating is good.
I have 3 different retirement accounts spread out among three different money managers, spread out into everything you can possibly think of. They averaged a little better then 25% last year. None of my accounts are high risk and are in what is considered moderate risk, about a 3 on the 1 to 5 scale.
I'm in the same boat as you in that I'm getting close enough to retirement I can see the finish line and don't want to get tripped up now.
Yeah...I got hammered hard a couple of times by being greedy. Sure, I recovered...but...I don't want to have to again.Quote:
Originally Posted by Iceaxe
I probably need a money manager....there's certainly funds I could get in that might not be as much risk as I think they are. Geez, how long is this bubble going to go before it pops??
I'm kinda fortunate as well that I have a couple of pensions too. Kids these days (you know...kids these days) don't get much in the way of pensions offered up any more. I'll be happy to eat that extra can of Alpo in retirement...ha ha.
And....remember...social security isn't an entitlement!
Anyhow...money manager...got a recommendation? One time deal or % as you go? How's that work?
My 401k accounts are at Fidelity...and...I could certainly use their resources...but...thoughts?
Check your private messages.Quote:
Originally Posted by Brian in SLC
lost about $3500 in MJ, yesterday.
Gained back $1800 so far today.
I could see the drop coming but failed to act.
got $2600 back now
You are just paying some asshole to do something you can manage on your own. But if you do get a manager make sure they serve as a fiduciary.
I managed my own stocks for years and the outside asshole makes me a lot more money than I made on my own. I just don't have the hundreds of hours to devote to it that he does, I'm to busy making money at my real job. YMMVQuote:
Originally Posted by basilone0331
I tried the stock picking game and clearly shouldn't be doing that for a living. I only do index funds now. I've never had an individual financial planner, but within my various employer's 401k plans none of the actively managed ones consistently outperform their reference index funds.Quote:
Originally Posted by Iceaxe
I have index funds as well, but that's really pushing the definition of "managing stocks on your own".Quote:
Originally Posted by basilone0331
haven't got an updated draft of Presidential comparisons, lately, update would be :2thumbs:
This one? People were complaining about it, so I stopped posting.Quote:
Originally Posted by oldno7
Attachment 88751
Exactly my point, I am not one to be picking (guessing) which stocks will be the winners, so I am happy with the S&P 500 results. I just keep a portion as bonds as I get older my willingness to take a big loss with the markets decreases. I generally follow the Bogle method.Quote:
Originally Posted by Scott P
So what the heck happened?
A buying opportunity.Quote:
Originally Posted by accadacca
This was driven by the release of the memo, Wall street hates uncertainty.
Wouldn't be surprised to see a new high by the end of Feb.
Was also driven by the wage increase report.
Higher wages help create inflation, which devalues bonds, bonds started selling off and stocks followed.
And here we all thought a wage increase was a good thing.
It is for us working folks but bad for the fed which tries to control inflation.
20 trillion has to catch up to us eventually, as well.
Had nothing to do with release of "the memo".Quote:
Originally Posted by oldno7
Jobs, rise in wages, inflation and a scheduled increase in inflation.
Several big companies bought back huge amounts of their own stock.
I think one of the reasons the market "corrected" (tanked...ugh). is that I moved my portfolio around. Its happened before. My timing is brilliant.
Ha ha.
Yeah, lets hope for steady growth for the rest of the month.
I need to quit watching and worrying day-to-day I suppose.
Where's my darn crystal ball...
Brian singlehandedly tanked the entire US stock market.... LOL
Somehow it gets overlooked that stocks are up 28% for the year, even after the correction. I don't think this correction surprised anyone.
Another way to look at it is that the current DOW value would have been the record high on January 10 2018. Three and a half weeks ago, this would have been considered a record on the high end.
It's a really minor correction in the grand scheme of things.
You should certainly have others manage your money.Quote:
Originally Posted by Brian in SLC
I forecast prior to the day that it could easily be a -500pt day, it was 665.
This was an easy call and great opportunity to buy discounted stocks and/or funds.
Just because you didn't see it ahead of time and made bad decisions, doesn't mean it's not true.
I'm with Brian, the memo had a negotiable impact on stocks. It was the wage report that caused the chaos. There was nothing new in the memo that most didn't already suspect.Quote:
Originally Posted by oldno7
Short of impeachment proceedings (doubtful in the short term, and, not likely in the long term), I'm not sure the politics of the country can really rock the financial boat.
The fed raising interest rates. Change in monetary policy. New or changing regulations.
This tax change will be interesting to watch. Will certainly stimulate at least sectors of the economy. Hard to say what it will do more globally. Maybe uninformed, but, given the lack of knowledge about the impact, I wonder if foreign investments aren't as good a bet?
As far as having someone manage one's money...in a sense, if you stick with large mutual funds, then essentially it is being managed.
Hopefully by the end of Feb we'll have better news...no reason not to that I can see.
If folks have short term predictions, post up.
I follow markets very closely, I trade them daily.(by myself, with only my own analysis, mostly technical but some fundamental)Quote:
Originally Posted by Iceaxe
The wages increase/inflation issue was real, it was also a 2-300 pt correction issue.
Uncertainty with the memo, was the balance of the decline.IMO
Global economy(IMO) is well worth watching.Quote:
Originally Posted by Brian in SLC
I've invested a great deal in emerging markets as I think they all lag the US economy and have more room for growth.
As goes the US economy--goes the world economy.
Honest--not trying to pick on you here but this statement is incredibly naive and/or ignorant.(the second half, first has zero chance)Quote:
Originally Posted by Brian in SLC
The post analysis of the decline has been an interesting read. Marketwatch, Bloomberg, WSJ, Benzinga....none mention the memo as even a partial cause.Quote:
Originally Posted by oldno7
And, given the memo was a bit of a big nothing burger...no surprise there.
By all count, was an orderly sell off and not chaotic.
The whole market thing is interesting. I have friends who are in the financial sector, and, friends who dabble in the hobby of it (day trading, etc). Its kinda crazy.
I'm convinced that the folks who create immense amounts of wealth for themselves in the markets all have...information...that the rest of us aren't privy to. Lets just say everyone I know with a Harvard or Wharton MBA does pretty well... Its an insiders club.
That doesn't mean the table scraps aren't worth pickin' through.
Here's to fat returns to the next 2-3 years!
Ahh--so it's ignorance, I stand corrected, carry on..Quote:
Originally Posted by Brian in SLC
Humor me, then.Quote:
Originally Posted by oldno7
As an example....Bill Clinton was impeached by the house. The dow gains during his presidency? Second highest in history?
I think the market, driven by either a strong or weak economy, certainly is influenced especially at the consumer spending and confidence level, by the politics of the day. But, I don't think that influence is significant.
Now, if politics result in policy and regulations change...absolutely. A hike or cut in interest rates? Government bonds? Cutting entitlements? Raising the debt ceiling?
Sure.
Doesn't it seem when congress is in turmoil...that the market fairs well?
Shine some of your light on this, sensei.
Ever hear of :
The new deal(had a positive affect on markets, just after the crash of 29)
Bay of pigs
Cuban missile crisis
Beginning of medicare
Vietnam
Watergate
Remember the crash of 87? (Iraq)
Subprime mortgage
This is ignorance and the above is a small representation of why.Quote:
Originally Posted by Brian in SLC
And---the short list is of those events that had a negative effect, you can google political events that had a positive one.
I'll even help you with something recently---Trump tax reform...
I'm guessing you were on the boat of "Trump will crash the market"