Stocks

It's still too early to say what is going to happen through the Trump presidency.

Here is the current score card for the last five presidents. Right now stocks are doing well under Trump, especially when you interpolated the timeline. The Dow has stagnated for though, but it's the long term trends that matter.

The stagnation won't last and stocks will probably continue be on a rising trend. Although it would be nice, I do doubt however, that the annual percent change is going to stay over 30% throughout the presidency. Time will tell.

Attachment 86913

I will periodically (maybe once a week?) update the spreadsheet and post it here.

Current score card:

Attachment 87044

Current scorecard:

Attachment 87071

The U.S. stock market is on pace to have its worst daily decline in 8 months.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by accadacca

The U.S. stock market is on pace to have its worst daily decline in 8 months.

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That just means it's time to buy. It will go back up.

Yup, good day to buy.

Current scorecard:

Attachment 87120

As said, it's still too early to tell, but my own prediction is that at the end of the Trump presidency, the percentage gains will be closer to that under the Obama Administration than that under the Clinton Administration. That's not bad though. Stocks actually did well under the Obama Administration.

Current scorecard:

Attachment 87140

I like the scorecard idea; makes for interesting dinner table discussion. I note a few things.
1) You should include Nasdaq and S&P in your performance measures. The Dow isn't a realistic measure of market valuation on its own. The Nasdaq has been outperforming both the Dow and S&P for the past year.
2) Considering the hit that the Dow took during the Great Recession (Dec 2007 - Jun 2009), I'm surprised at how well the performance was under Obama.
3) I'd be curious what the performance is for the same number of days for each administration - by term.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Glenn

I like the scorecard idea; makes for interesting dinner table discussion. I note a few things.
1) You should include Nasdaq and S&P in your performance measures. The Dow isn't a realistic measure of market valuation on its own. The Nasdaq has been outperforming both the Dow and S&P for the past year.
2) Considering the hit that the Dow took during the Great Recession (Dec 2007 - Jun 2009), I'm surprised at how well the performance was under Obama.
3) I'd be curious what the performance is for the same number of days for each administration - by term.

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There is a lot one could do here, such as take the score card much farther back as well, but I was just going to make something simple.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Glenn

2) Considering the hit that the Dow took during the Great Recession (Dec 2007 - Jun 2009), I'm surprised at how well the performance was under Obama.

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The DJIA actually took the big plunge under Bush 2, which makes Obama's numbers look much better than they really were as Obama's numbers benefitted greatly from the bounce at the bottom. Much of Obama's time was spent just regaining lost ground.

In contrast Trumps numbers are almost entirely new ground and new high's, which I don't believe has ever been seen before, at least since WWII.

Obama is also getting credit for the 1,900 point jump the DJIA made between November 3 2016 and January 20, 2017, which was a direct result of Trump being elected. These 1,900 points should be credited to Trump which would really make his numbers look much better than they already are.

DJIA October 2017 - 14,093
DJIA November 3, 2016 - 17,930
DJIA January 2o, 2017 - 19,799

Obama was a wet blanket to the stock market any way you want to slice it, but he wasn't helped any by the mess Bush 2 gave him.

:popcorn:

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In contrast Trumps numbers are almost entirely new ground and new high's, which I don't believe has ever been seen before, at least since WWII.

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Not so. Look at stocks under the Clinton era.

Obviously, there is a lot more to the stock market then simply who the President is though.

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Obama was a wet blanket to the stock market any way you want to slice it, but he wasn't helped any by the mess Bush 2 gave him.

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I'd have to disagree. Stocks did well under Obama, any way that it is sliced. Also, it must be remembered that other recessions took much longer to recover from.

I'm still betting that stock performance under Trump will end up closer to that under Obama than that under Clinton.

If you want to make a friendly wager, I'm game.:2thumbs:

Current scorecard:

Attachment 87158

21,206.....

I'm on my way to being a very rich man.

Thanks Trump [emoji631]

#MAGA

Current scorecard:

Attachment 87209

Quote:

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DJIA October 2017 - 14,093
DJIA November 3, 2016 - 17,930
DJIA January 2o, 2017 - 19,799

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I just noticed this going through the numbers, but where are you getting that the Dow was 14,093 in October 2017? The Dow hasn't been that low since March 1 2013. In October 2017 Dow was always above 18,000.

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Anyway, I'm leaving on a trip Tuesday and will be pretty busy until then, so I'll update the score card early:

Attachment 87226

21,529 [emoji631]

22,000 before years end.

#MAGA

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Iceaxe

21,529

22,000 before years end.

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Unless something unexpected happens, it will probably higher than that. 21,529 to 22,000 is only a 2.18% increase.

I'm guessing by year's end it will be above 23,000.

If the DJIA is above 23,000 at years end Trump will be hailed by many as one of the greatest presidents ever as he will be partially responsible for creating a huge army of newly minted millionaires.... just sayin'


https://cdn-business.discourse.org/u...a79e0ad5f2.jpg

Current scorecard:

Attachment 87325