I stand corrected.
I hear you with the too much confidence thing...back in '12 Romney was certainly a weak candidate, but I was floored when Obama beat him so handily. Indeed, nothing is a sure thing no matter how much one may think it is.
But this time around...I think the behavior of the media will work in Trumps favor. They've been exposed...It's easier to win people over with persuasive speeches than foaming at the mouth rage. Also, those that would replace him are severely more undesirable than he is.
Predictions? I think as the Dems continue to flop around, the Dow will hit 32 before the election.