Pot calling the kettle black boss.Quote:
Originally Posted by Iceaxe
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Pot calling the kettle black boss.Quote:
Originally Posted by Iceaxe
No... I actually stay and participate in the threads I post crap in... a prime example is this thread where I have participated since the day I started it and have attempted to point out why there is a vast difference between you and I. Lots of us toss red meat into the pit, but then we stick around and defend our position, which you seldom/never do.... do you see the difference yet or do you need me to make you a PowerPoint demonstration with color pie charts?Quote:
Originally Posted by accadacca
Quote:
Originally Posted by accadacca
Do you get it now or do you need a PowerPoint presentation?Quote:
Originally Posted by Iceaxe
:popcorn:
:duel:
Boom!!!
And just like that Trump is elected to a second term.
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/202...e437dc1017.jpg
Please. 15k I think I said, you give me too much credit for 10k. Printing and zero rates had their effect.Quote:
Originally Posted by rockgremlin
The old Graham studies of the 30s predicted a 286 multiple in a zero environment. More room to run if so.
Still doesn't account for the election risk. Upside of Trump is, downside of Dem sweep is?
Exited my QQQ etf yesterday at 302.95
Had a hanging man doji on higher volume=too much risk for me to continue holding.
The DJIA will likely dip today as I expect to see a lot of profit taking.
Watch the canadian pot stock sector--amazing!!!!
Some up 100% in 2 days.(ACB)
The market loved a split govt and a Biden ending of hostilities with China. Hence the good rally post election day. A split was the single best outcome for the market, shedding Trump's trade and immigration policies but keeping his tax and dereg.
But now weakness should prevail as the market comes to grips with a Dem Senate being a real possibility.
From a sweep, rollback of the Trump tax cuts effects the broad market. Subsidies for alt energy effects those +. Health stocks probably hit as the public option would come and eviscerate private health over time. Big Tech + as the war against them ends. Homebuilders + with open borders and amnesty chain migration. Precious metals + as the mass spending programs signal dollar weakness. Etc. Winners and losers, plan accordingly.
Worst will be energy and gun stocks. Elimination of the liability shield for gun makers will kill them all in a decade or so. Possible survival for ones that manufacture and sell only in a single state, to skirt federal laws. This was a hot topic in the industry a few years ago for a similar reason and has to be revisited now.
^^^gun stocks will continue to do well because folks will continue to stock up on guns and ammo in anticipation of Biden cracking down.
Check out Vista Outdoor (VSTO) - that stock is rocking because guns and ammo won't stop flying off store shelves. I can't see that slowing down anytime soon.
They will for a time, potentially years, yes. It's just a comment that in time all national makers will be bankrupted. And targeted specifically for lawfare.Quote:
Originally Posted by rockgremlin
It's like buying one of the mineral resource royalty stocks. It's a diminishing asset and you have to run a discounted valuation calc. Many, many investors don't know this, so overvalued stocks can remain overvalued for a long time. Add in that you never know when a large lawsuit might be filed, nor how long it would take to adjudicate. Large variability which makes a discounted calc nearly impossible. Just becomes your thinking on that risk. You'd have to count on the SC overturning decades of product liability laws to save them.
For the gun stocks, think back to Sandy Hook. Without the Fed liability shield, Bushmaster would have been toast at the time from lawsuits. And those lawsuits were filed and money had to be spent to defend even with the shield. Parent Remington went under later as a bk for a variety of reasons.
Bottom line, it has to be considered a risk now. Dem sweep, shield repealed, shooting, lawsuit. Determine your risk tolerance.
I'd encourage you all to weigh risk v reward again.
What is the reward of a divided govt for the next 2?
+ for market
1. Let up on China and stop border enforcement
2. Tax increases are stopped in an R Senate
3. Stop border enforcement stimulates demand
- for market
1. Regulatory creep begins again
2. War on energy, though not 100% strength, will incrementally drive costs up
What is the risk of a Dem sweep?
+ for market
1. Large stimulus and spending across the board
2. Mass amnesty plus stop border enforcement stimulates demand
- for market
1. Tax increases. Income, cap gains, financial transaction, inheritance, payroll, medical, all in the Biden plan
2. Large regulatory schemes emerge
3. Weight of govt spending on new citizens, Medicare, and climate initiatives drives the debt market to some point
4. The biggie: once realization that Dem rule is permanent...
a. sectors of the market need to be evaluated for fixed term of existence (energy, ICE auto, firearms, and any other targeted)
b. CA level policy nationwide will alter the return of entire sectors that aren't termed out. eg, US population will swell, tech more empowered, national home energy standards, etc
Oil might be an interesting play in the coming months if the Dems sweep. The market reaction will be swift and painful for a lot of names. But emerging market energy demand will power increased oil consumption for 1 or 2 more decades.
As US oil majors are sued and fined and pressured to phase out oil production as BP and Shell and Eni have done in Europe, other foreign suppliers will pick up the slack. A multiyear play.
Names like EC, PBR, SNP, ARMCO to name a few. Immunity to insane US policy changes is going to be a great plus for several asset classes.
Quote:
Originally Posted by dougrz
[ahem] Speaking of oil stocks...
Exxon up 14%, Apache Oil up 21%, Conoco up 15%, etc....
The prospect of a viable Covid vaccine available soon is driving many stocks skyward upon speculation of society returning to normal soon. (DJIA + 1400 points!)
Investing in speculation is always a risky bet. When reality doesn't bear fruit the market is ruthless.
Had this been announced 2 weeks ago, several points for Trump nationwide.Quote:
Originally Posted by rockgremlin
Purposely withheld.
Same deal with the drug companies coming out this morning and announcing they are only weeks away from a Covid vaccine.Quote:
Originally Posted by dougrz
Big Pharma hates Trump as he kept forcing them to sell their products to America at the same cut rates they sold to other countries.
Big pharma will deeply regret helping the socialists win. Just as big health insurance helped push Obamacare across the line to get some spare time only to be eventually pushed entirely out of biz.Quote:
Originally Posted by Iceaxe
No doubt there were deals cut to spare them from attacks for a while in whatever Dem bills come down the line first.
I'm ticked at myself for not seeing this obvious news in advance and playing options on it. So obvious.
But this does signal the era of corruption, deals, and political manipulation accelerates nationwide. The heart and soul of socialism is corruption.
TTD I've owned since May or so. Purely on the insistence of the adviser I work with.
Remarkable volatility.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/202...48f0935946.jpghttps://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/202...8ea94da8d4.jpg
Dow crests 30,000 points on vaccine hopes, Biden transition
https://www.ksl.com/article/50054751...den-transition
Quote:
Originally Posted by Iceaxe
Meanwhile, millions of Americans are either unemployed or bankrupted from Covid lockdowns. Small business owners - especially in Democrat run states - are living off savings and may never recover.
But it's a good thing wall street is doing well. :roll: The disparity between wall street and main street in this country is staggering.
The Robin Hood trading crowd are operating with the pedal to the metal and the blinders on but something has to give because the Dow is NOT an accurate economic representation of this country under the current conditions.
Yeah, I wonder what's going to happen to the DOW when ol' Joe puts the whole country under his thumb and won't let anyone go back to work for a month and a half.
It makes me think of my daughter. We're all stuck at home right now because a couple of us got the COVID, so she's working from home and hasn't been able to go out for a while. She's all pissed off about it, but she voted for Biden because she gets her news from tik-tok and twitter. It'll be interesting what happens when she gets more of what she asked for. She won't like it, but refuses to see it for what it really is.
A lot of people made a LOT of money this year. Not trying to brag, but I'm getting ready to spend $130K on a fancy truck and camper and I didn't have to work a single second for it. There's always winners and losers...same thing is going to happen with the next 4 "Biden" years...position yourself right and there's money to be made.Quote:
Originally Posted by rockgremlin
Speaking of work, I've done far more of it this year than I wanted to. My "plan" was for more play, less work...but the phone rang off the hook, I raised my rate (again) and none of my friends ventured away from home this summer so I just got after it. I wasn't planning on buying that camper for another 3 years (it was going to be a 60th birthday present to myself) but pulled the trigger now as to literally force me not to say "yes" anymore to so much work...can't paint a house when I'm in the middle of Montana for 3 weeks.
Anyway, damn near every guy I've met who works in the trades is swamped. I've got long time customers moving into much bigger homes...in fact I'm booked from now 'till the end of the year just working on the interior of two monster houses. The salesman at the Ford dealer where I bought my new truck told me even the bums that work there are selling cars.
But you're right...there's a lot of people that got pummeled with this attack...and an attack is exactly what it was/is. I was thinking about this the other day...how so many (including myself) just sailed thru this year without any reproductions whatsoever while others were laid low. This may sound a bit selfish, but I really don't feel sorry for them...I was dirt poor, foolish and naive at one time, too. I'm just glad I'm not my 25 year old self right now.
Which brings us to the big picture look of this whole situation...it's the haves vs. the have nots. We live in a country of great wealth and opportunity, and those that are willing to willing to put aside instant gratification and/or get their asses to work (hours, lots of hours, baby) can make it just as well as I did. But you've got those that just can't keep up and they're pissed...so the elites use that anger to divide us while giving noting to their so called "coalition" but lip service.
In other words, I think the economy as it is, is just fine. It'll chug on while leaving the human debris in its wake just like it always has. IMO, the biggest hit the poor are going to take is a large increase in gas prices and increases in rent to cover expenses. Yeah, it sucks to be poor, and it's going to suck even worse going forward. What gets me is that these dummies vote for the very people that bring down the pain...hypnotized by false promises and outright lies.
Not much compassion, huh? Well...I paid my dues and climbed that mountain...and while I'm up here the last thing I'm going to do is huck handfuls of cash to those wallowing bellow. Instead I'm looking over the edge saying "I made it, so can you"...get off your ass.
So from here what I see happening is that Biden is inaugurated and will almost immediately seek to get a handle on Covid by imposing another 6week lockdown. This will make the situation worse but never fear, another trillion dollar stimulus package will be sent out.
And at some point inflation will rear it's ugly head. Those that are well off will do ok but those on the bottom rung will continue to get pummelled.
And thats how life works.Quote:
Originally Posted by rockgremlin
If you hate the bottom--get off it.
The only hiccup is it requires effort....
I remember slow times in my business, every day during those times, I looked for ways to get busy and accel.
Not easy, takes commitment most lack.
Thats why most small business' fail--lack of commitment to busting your ass.
I've worked outside at -20 and 105* but I worked.
Well said here. If you would have asked me at the end of March how this year would have turned out, I wouldn't have thought for a moment I'd have made this much money. 2017-2019 was very good for me and I was ready to batten down the hatches when all lock downs hit this spring, and I lost about $25k in commissions in March. But I am gonna have doubled my income from last year when all is said and done. If you can bust your ass the money will still be out there. This is one of the reasons I don't get all that wrapped up on who the president is, I'll survive either way.Quote:
Originally Posted by Byron
Yeah, I'm with ya there...however, the dog I have in the fight is that when the rubber hits the road, it can really matter. One coalition or another will be served...and I prefer the "conservative" angle. Seems to the the liberal thing is a lot of talk and little action. I hardly think allowing a grown man wearing a dress to enter a bathroom with a 12 year old girl inside is a "victory" for those that run around with rainbow flag T-shirts.Quote:
Originally Posted by uintafly
But hey...most of us see the world thru different "reality goggles" as I call them. It's all good, but violence, threats, extortion, intimidation, destruction and ANYONE that refuses or half ass "denounces" it is on my shit list.
Trump was an anomaly...the "Ross Perot" that took 25 more years to come to fruition. Now things go back to "normal"...Clinton, Bush, Obama.
EDIT: You are correct sir...Thanos was right.
I'm a short term trader and have been holding these a long time, for me.
Took some profit on QQQ today as it is making all time high.
So the buttload of Ford stock I bought back in March just went over $9 a share...daddy like.
When I bought it, I figured to dump it when it hit $10...but I just might get greedy and wait until it his 12. :cool2:
Never, never be a wallflower...especially when the good stuff is staring you right in the face.
I put in for some Air Bnb on the IPO and was assigned 30 shares at $68.
It popped to $155 (or $165) and I sold. Same day ~$3k, today.
Pure luck, but nice bonus while walking GA.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/202...717e6ced04.jpg
^ Of course watch it go to $300 next week. But I'll potentially re-enter after the lockup, or after a post exuberance selloff, was my thinking.
Exited all QQQ's this morning.
Quote:
Originally Posted by oldno7
Nice. Just three days removed from the most recent highs. I expect a pullback is imminent?
Rand Paul's speech about the relief bill was excellent. This endless money printing, and lack of business activity behind it, isn't going to end well.
Stocks might very well do fine, but we're all being made poorer. Once home and rested, I've got some real planning to do for the long term.
Triple divergence on RSIQuote:
Originally Posted by rockgremlin
May be more to the upside but I'm happy putting profits in my pocket and waiting for a calmer climate to re enter.
Just bought some Ford--8.68
Good pullback from 9.50
Will buy more if lower
I really want 8.20
With 7.40 very much a target as well
Then 6.73
If biden gets in, I wouldn't be surprised to test or exceed last years low.
AND--don't take stock advice from me, as soon as I see a decent profit on my system, it will be sold.
teeny bit more F at 8.62
Decent system buy at 8.51
I don't want to hold this for very long at all.
When I purchase a stock on a system buy--I immediately set a STOP LOSS order to limit my losses.FYI