Keeping on the dumb money Robinhood trading platform, there was a Chinese social media ticker that skyrocketed recently. Same scenario as NKLA. Watching Robinhood names and making momentum trades just off that is worth exploring.
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Keeping on the dumb money Robinhood trading platform, there was a Chinese social media ticker that skyrocketed recently. Same scenario as NKLA. Watching Robinhood names and making momentum trades just off that is worth exploring.
Chicken little here, checking in. The Fed's comments yesterday about keeping rates at zero until (or through, I forget) 2022 also has rattled. That's an admission of no fast recovery and continued printing that'll weaken the dollar.
In the first selloff we saw the dollar rally strongly, as safe haven status and a rush to cash does that. If we see both a dollar weakness and market turmoil to the downside, that tells the story of bad fundamentals and too much cash floating around. Not good.
Quote:
Originally Posted by dougrz
Expect to see a rush on gold again. This is great news for those of us invested in GDX and Barrick.
Also expect to see a whipsaw snapback tomorrow since today's selloff is way too severe. (Any reaction in the stock market is an overreaction).
You would think so. I'm trying to get a better understanding of gold production and supply vs monetary demand vs industrial and jewelry demand. And what gold might be correlated to historically. Other currencies and other countries can also become havens. Lot of moving parts. Add in that high gold prices beget more mining activity as marginal plays become profitable. Hence miners might be the best play. They're levered on the gold price anyway.Quote:
Originally Posted by rockgremlin
Since I design about half the stuff that goes to Barrick Gold Strike I'm good with that. I think they should hurry up and add a couple more crusher and mill buildings, several thousand feet of conveyor's would also be nice.Quote:
Originally Posted by rockgremlin
I'm currently working on a couple of conveyors and magnet stations going out the Round Mountain Gold.
:2thumbs:
Quote:
Originally Posted by dougr
I just read this comical article about the average RobinHood day trader, and thought of you. Enjoy!
Low-information 'investors' rule the stock market -- at least until they lose every cent
Today 3:42 PM ET (MarketWatch)
By Howard Gold, MarketWatch
Robinhood and day-trading newbies already are getting their comeuppance.
In 1929, the story goes, Joseph P. Kennedy, patriarch of the Kennedy clan, went for a shoeshine not far from his Wall Street office. Kennedy was stunned when the shoeshine man gave stock tips to him, a leading trader. He immediately returned to his office and aggressively short-sold stocks, making a fortune in the Great Crash.
This is probably an apocryphal tale that points to a larger truth: When even shoeshine men are so confident in their bullishness they give stock tips to the pros, it's time to run for the hills.
This week we've seen plenty of signs of this. As the Nasdaq Composite hit all-time highs, briefly closing above 10,000 (nearly double its bubble top from the year 2000), and the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 both came within shouting distance of their February record peaks, day traders and newbies emerged, proclaiming their stock-picking genius.
This testosterone-driven overconfidence -- and research shows men are more reckless investors than women (https://business.rice.edu/wisdom/pee...-men-and-women) -- has been most pronounced on Robinhood, the commission-free stock trading app preferred by millennials who can make all the trades they want at the tap of their thumbs.
The tale of Robinhood
According to Crunchbase, the Menlo Park, Calif.-based brokerage has raised $1.2 billion altogether. On the strength of three million new customers in the first quarter, it just raised $280 million in a late funding round led by Silicon Valley heavyweight Sequoia Capital. Robinhood has more than 10 million customers (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/09/robi...rs-missed.html) whose average age is 31.It has been having an outsized impact on stock trading. An analyst at Deutsche Bank recently examined Robinhood trading data and found that small investors were behind much of the recent buying (https://nypost.com/2020/06/10/small-...onavirus-surge/) in the stock market, so that what we used to call the "smart money" is "now chasing" the day traders. Talk about the caboose pulling the train!
Gone are the days of COVID-19 lockdowns and fears of bodies piling up in emergency rooms. Long forgotten are the 40 million unemployed Americans, the 40% of businesses that may not reopen and the "long road" to recovery that a gloomy Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell laid out in his news conference Wednesday. And don't even think about the new wave of coronavirus cases and hospitalizations we're seeing in at least a dozen U.S. states. Oh, no, instead the day traders are sampling and remixing those hits of the 1930s, "We're in the Money" and "Happy Days Are Here Again."
And these mini-Masters of the Universe aren't just buying the Apples (AAPL) and Teslas (TSLA) of the world; they're gobbling up stocks of bankrupt companies like Hertz (HTZ) and those whose businesses are in deep trouble, like American Airlines Group (AAL). Both of those stocks and others beaten down badly in the coronavirus bear market have rallied sharply over the past few weeks.
Better than Buffett?
No doubt these very astute people have done deep dives into balance sheets, loan covenants and capital structures the way distressed debt and deep value investors do to make sure they're protected on the downside. Oh, wait. Screw the guardrails. Damn the torpedoes. Traders on Robinhood and other instant-trading platforms are wagering hundreds maybe a few thousand bucks at a time and are beating the pants off the pros.One leading day trader who's particularly proud of himself is Dave Portnoy, the successful founder of Barstool Sports, who thinks his prowess over the last, oh, six weeks or so, has made him better than ... Warren Buffett.
"I'm the new breed. I'm the new generation," he crowed (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/war...yed-2020-06-09). "There's nobody who can argue that Warren Buffett is better at the stock market than I am right now. I'm better than he is. That's a fact."
This column has recently taken Buffett to task (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dud...era-2020-05-14) for his performance over the past decade. Three of his recent investments lost at least $7 billion, and he clearly sold airline stocks at the bottom (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/her...cks-2020-05-26). But really, Dave, really? He sounds like he's auditioning to host a revival of "The Apprentice."
The day trading is definitely a sign of the times. As Anthony Denier, CEO of trading platform Webull, told the New York Post: "We're all home. Some people are making bread, and some are saying, 'Hey, how can I make the stock market work for me?' And with the Fed [pumping money] into the markets, they're thinking 'How can I lose?' "
How? Let me count the ways, starting with today, with the Dow down almost 2,000 points. Who knows if this is profit taking or whether we're heading for another leg down in stocks? But some of us remember the 1990s, the days of theglobe.com and "boot your broker" and guys in their basements trading Yahoo stock dozens of times a day. You can "OK boomer" me all you want, but I've seen this movie many times and it never has a happy ending.
Howard R. Gold is a MarketWatch columnist. Follow him on Twitter @howardrgold (https://twitter.com/howardrgold?lang=en).
Great article. Thanks for posting this, rock. Forwarding this to several people.Quote:
Originally Posted by rockgremlin
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/lo...ent-2020-06-11
I might be a dead wrong chicken little on the resiliency of this country and the intelligence of the voters this fall. But the penalty factor is too high for such minimal gains given these extended valuations.
The Portnoy quote: “I’m the new breed. I’m the new generation,” he crowed. “There’s nobody who can argue that Warren Buffett is better at the stock market than I am right now. I’m better than he is. That’s a fact.”
OMG.
Hahaha... I've also seen this movie before. When stocks are skyrocketing it's hard not to lose money, but when things turn ugly you had better watch out :-)
Hmm, thanks for telling me about this. I have not heard about this from my friends. Is there evidence that this broker is a scam? In general, I have never even heard of your trading platform and this is very strange because in three months of trading I managed to try to work on a variety of platforms. By the way, are you trading in stocks of companies? I prefer the forex industry because there is stability. Even now, you can earn big money there despite the instability of the currency market. In addition, it is very important to use platforms such as Investous forex because there are no such scams. Try trading on this platform and you will like the result.
I'm getting a sense we're going to start seeing smart, large money exit stocks. Repeal of the Trump tax cuts and large re-regulation are going to dampen earnings a lot.
Nah...everybody will keep tryin' to make money. Who knows what will happen when the election is over.Quote:
Originally Posted by dougrz
Trump wins, I think it skyrockets. Dems win...well, fear not. There will be winners and losers. The lobbyists will be out in full force greasing palms, and then I reckon we'll get to see just how liberal the oligarchs are. Cuz that's who will be controlling the country.
Trump wins and it will skyrocket, yes. The market is increasingly pricing in a Dem sweep. Going to be many years of muted returns. Sure there will be winners and losers, but a rising market lifting all boats there will not be. Only smart, nimble investors will do well going forward. Going to be an ugly next many decades.
Quote:
Originally Posted by dougrz
You must a short seller. :lol8:
Blue Star...Blue Star Airlines.
Actually no, I've rarely ever shorted.Quote:
Originally Posted by rockgremlin
Biggest thing I am is profoundly sad about the state of the citizenry. When I talk to my young relatives fighting for Trump and trying to save the country from the far left, it's hard to keep a straight face. We're so far gone. Same type of convo I have with all of you. "We can do it, hold off the literal communists for another few years." Meanwhile nearly the entire apparatus of govt, pop culture, media, the biz world, education, sport, and anything that touches young minds is radically anti-American and anti-freedom. Factories of the left. We have 1/3 and probably only 1/4 of families turning out actual Americans anymore.
That underlying belief drives my market thinking to a large extent, obviously.
Y'know dougrz, the "next election cycle" seems to be all we have anyway...let's just get thru the next four years. Been like that for a long time.Quote:
Originally Posted by dougrz
These liberals sure are making a lot of noise. They're standing on top of the biggest hill in town and shouting at the top of their lungs, no doubt about that. But they've made a critical mistake in that they're talking nonsense and have taken it too far. That shit NEVER wins the day. They're showing us their true face and it's ugly as hell.
My opinion is that come November, the liberals in Congress are going to get slaughtered. While they may have votes locked up in the cities, they don't have it in the entire state. Those people that live out there are going to vote for this crap not to come near them. Add to that MOST of the people that live in these cities that are not down with this nonsense, either. These liberal politicians are corrupt liars, backstabbers that talk out both sides of their mouths. Everyone can see that.
Yeah, they make a lot of noise, but I think you give them too much credit.
My concern with this has only been to watch them go completely berserk...and the thing about people going off the rails like that is you just don't know what they might do next. America is not going to let psychotic freaks call the shots.
Just gimme 4 1/2 years, man. Just 4 1/2 years.
I've been researching some insurance names that were whacked and have not rallied with the market. The big risk overhang is Business Interruption coverage and liabilities.
Dems in several states, and now a Fed level push, are starting to demand retroactive Wuhan virus payouts regardless of contract language. The market is wisely pricing in a progressive legal landscape in the future, where law and contract clauses and the Constitution take a back seat to political forces.
My basic argument has been just that, for investing as a whole in this country. Call me a "sky is falling" idiot, but the progressive future looks clear to me, with its punishment of success and transfer of wealth to the non-working or politically connected.
One story of many on this issue: https://www.insurancebusinessmag.com...rs-219690.aspx
Just ask yourself if such a risk overhang is counterbalanced by a like reward scenario. Carry on.
Wouldn't that be something? The great American experiment collapses because it lawyered itself to death.Quote:
Originally Posted by dougrz
Those insurance companies ain't going anywhere. It would go all the way to the SC and no matter who is Prez or controlling Congress they'd be bailed out anyway.
The above quote is from February 28th just after stock prices fell off a cliff. I'm still predicting we'll be back over 28,000 by September. As of this morning the DJIA is back over 27,000.Quote:
Originally Posted by Iceaxe
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/202...e8aed1db9f.jpg
Market shorts are getting crushed right now. The analyst monkeys have been screaming for over a month about how the market is going to crash again... and yet here we are, going up almost every day.
^ And why I never have and never will short. Though I do play put options on individual stocks from time to time.
Nonetheless, I'm still highly cautious, as the tax and regulatory crush under Dems would eviscerate the market. Warren's business charter and employees with board seats and shareholder ownership changes will fundamentally change the meaning of business in the country to its profound detriment.
Regardless of whether you think the Dems will sweep, at least acknowledge the risk is so far beyond any previous Dem market risk. In the past it has always been a tax risk, which could be lobbied and finagled and sleighted around. Now it's a change to the fundamental meaning of business risk.
Again I disagree. I think you're making a blanket assumption that trading and investing in the stock market is a purely Republican activity. Have you seen the unprecedented amount of new traders and investors in the market these days? There are so many up and coming traders in the market now that seasoned investors have had to change up their strategies to accommodate the increased volume. All this new money and interest in the stock market isn't going to be stifled and sidelined by the Democrats. There's just too much money to be made. It's not in the best interest of the federal government to shut down the market - they benefit too much from it.
Rock, I take your response to be, in essence, "the country won't be damaged too much if Dems sweep."Quote:
Originally Posted by rockgremlin
We just disagree on the level of threat. Profoundly so. And hence why I'm having trouble sleeping and you're not.
Yeah I think you've assessed me correctly, although I don't believe a Dem sweep is going to happen. I can't see Biden winning and then the House remaining Democrat and the Senate flipping over to Democrat...all by this year's end. At worst, I could see Biden eking out a narrow and controversial victory. But for the entire Senate/House to also be Democrat by year's end? I don't think that's a very likely scenario.Quote:
Originally Posted by dougrz
Dems took 58% of the House vote in 2018. You'd have to expect an awfully big swing toward Trump to reverse that. And by late 2018 the economy was humming and Trump wasn't beaten down by any of the 2020 carnage.Quote:
Originally Posted by rockgremlin
In the Senate, since only 1/3 is up each cycle, it becomes a game of which 1/3. At this point we'll pick up Alabama and lose Maine, Montana, Georgia, Arizona, and Colorado. Net loss of 4 to flip.
Quote:
Originally Posted by dougrz
Arizona, Georgia, and Montana flipping from red to blue? Hmmm I don't know about that. Maine and Colorado are blue for sure though.
AZ and MT are 50/50 states if you look at their state legislatures. Which, btw, I think is the best way to gauge a state's voting heart.Quote:
Originally Posted by rockgremlin
MT put D-Tester back in over a very good R candidate in 2018 and R-Daines is weak this year
AZ has been trending D. Had 2 R senators in 2016 and previous, flipped one to D-Sinema in 2018, and R-McSally this time is a poor candidate who keeps getting put up in race after race only to lose each time. She was the first Navy fighter pilot or something and seemed a rising star, but the public doesn't embrace her. Sad reality to see this formerly solid R state slip away. I lived there for 6 years.
GA R-Loeffler has been battered by the insider trading allegations and the state was razor close in the 2018 gov contest, almost putting in nutcase Stacey Abrams. Sad reality to see that formerly strong R state slip away.
CO is foregone. I live here now, and 2018 was a violent bloodbath sweep for Dems. Took every state office and commanding majorities in both legislative houses. The CO vote is why I've been telling anyone who'll listen- anger motivates voting more than anything, and Dems are ultra pissed, on an historic level, to drive turnout.
Dear Doug -- so you can sleep at night...
https://www.my12stepstore.com/media/...WalletCard.jpg
My Ford stock is doing nicely. I bought a considerable amount of it at just under $4. I'll sell it when it hits $10, at least.
That one was a no brainer.
Ford is gaining--I've bought and sold it several times in the past months.Quote:
Originally Posted by Byron
The one I really still like is VSTO.
It was in the 4's when I mentioned it here. Now above $16 and likely headed over $20.
Yup 100% guarantee. I've bought/sold this a half dozen times over the last 3 months. It's been really, really good to me. Earnings coming up next week will likely look favorable since guns and ammo have been flying off shelves recently due to riots and other unrest.Quote:
Originally Posted by oldno7
VSTO shined again today.
17.01 on close
Consensus is a 32/33% annualized GDP quarterly decline report coming. Trillions in stimulus debt piled on. Surveys that 60%+ of restaurants will not return to business. Etc.
This is the setup I've anticipated and mentioned in here before. A massive economic contraction, coupled with a vote to go hard left, means permanent Spain/EU economic pain and deep recession for years.
I don't see any evidence to contradict that. Pumping the market has worked admirably, specifically. A chart in an article recently showed it well. If I can find the dang link to post.
Even if a sharp correction down doesn't come, or especially if not, future returns, _from indices_, will necessarily remain muted for many years. You have to be nimble and selective in the new market, imo.
Added to my NOK holding. That and ERIC I entered 2 or 3 years ago in the play to squelch Huawei in the race to 5G. I had my doubts the West would do the right thing, but I think it's now safe to say Huawei will be defeated. The UK 2 weeks ago banned Huawei equipment going forward. They were the last significant holdout and Boris' govt was defending Huawei a few months ago. Germany hasn't legally done so, but all their major telecoms shut out Huawei in their 5G contracts.
ERIC is 2.5x my entry point and NOK 0.9x. NOK has been winning fewer contracts, but had sufficiently impressive offerings to win the recent Taiwan majors competitions. More potential gain from this point forward, imo, if they can figure out how to make some money on their deals.
Big remaining Q for me is whether to exit all fossil plays entirely. Bad legal and biz framework coming for them. I still hold WES, XOM, RDS, HMLP, and OGZPY. In that order of liquidation.
OGZPY is Russian gas and should be uncorrelated to a domestic fossil crackdown. HMLP is entirely non-US, but a fossil crackdown here will over time drive their feedstock prices higher, and the market will adjust it now accordingly. WES is a Western states pipeline operator that'll get decimated by fracking restrictions. XOM and RDS as supermajors is a harder call, as their strength to buy others and lobby gives them some protection. But to be in a sector under govt assault is dicey at best.
I wouldn't exit all fossil plays entirely. The world still needs oil, and will continue to need oil for a while longer. Natural gas plays are good too as long as the company is sound and not in hot water. For example, Energy Transfer (ET) keeps getting hamstrung by the regulatory agencies and environmentalists. They're the company trying to put a pipeline through the Indian reservations in the Dakotas. Tough sledding.
If you're a coal company your goose is about cooked. The once mighty coal industry is against the ropes, and the referee has just passed 7 in his standing 8 count. The old coal giants (Peabody, ArchCoal, Murray Energy, Consol, etc) are currently or have been in various stages of bankruptcy. Kind of sad, really. The death of a once mighty industry is never pretty.
My charting suggests we have 1 more new high in the gold/precious metal sector.
At this point, the further up, the risk increases, dramatically.
Those who have no means to see high and lows may get suckered in on a breakout to the upside.
Having said that--I don't see the gold rally as over, not by a long shot but it is in need of a serious pullback(opportunity to re buy)
Time is always on the side of the patient, I await a pullback.
Sold some VSTO today at 18.25
Now my outlook has turned to GOLD--literally.
I think the 2 best stock plays in the gold market will be NEM and GOLD
With a nice pullback today, I'm looking to buy
I see NEM having the most upside.
Not a buy and hold situation, as none of mine are.
^^^Why would you say that NEM has more upside? It's 2.5X the cost of GOLD, meaning you get about a third of the shares for the same amount of money.
They both respond to the market and behave in very similar ways but NEM is so much more expensive.
Actual cost is meaningless, % of return is the ultimate goal.Quote:
Originally Posted by rockgremlin
NEM has under performed in the sector and imo has a bigger upside.
My first goal is 10%ish.
With any stock making new highs, the upside is a void.
No support/resistance, it's an unknown and prices can get much more overboughter(I made up that word but like it)
One does not CONSISTENTLY make money in the stock market being lazy.Quote:
Originally Posted by rockgremlin
Research--grasshopper---research....:mrgreen:
It's all just math...